100 yard rusher vs 300 yard passer winning percentage - interesting

[artmalibu]

What is the winning percentage when you have both a 300 yard passer and 100 on the ground?

[RyanC883]

1 hour ago, Big Blitz said:

 

^^^

 

No you don't build a ground n pound O.

 

You just better not neglect your ability to run

 

or stop the run

[Since1981]

Crappy stats 101 class. as ice cream sales go up, so do drownings.  

 

I’ll take my chances and never go back to that ground/pound BS. Which, btw, was great marketing when your QB sucks. Balance is good, obviously.

Edited September 6, 2022 by Since1981

[HardyBoy]

7 minutes ago, Since1981 said:

Crappy stats 101 class. as ice cream sales go up, so do drownings.  

 

I’ll take my chances and never go back to that ground/pound BS. Which, btw, was great marketing when your QB sucks. Balance is good, obviously.

 

It's about staying ahead of the chains really and being able to convert through the air when you aren't. 

 

Bills didn't need to run more last year, they needed to run better early in games.

 

You know what I don't miss, is the third and 12+ draw play dive that was the hallmark of the drought years. My hope is the new o-line coaching and a new running scheme where they use receivers more as actual inside run blockers will allow them to get away from having Allen run designed runs, because they won't need a full extra blocker to make it so the run game has a hope of consistent success.

[Shaw66]

34 minutes ago, SinceThe70s said:

 

I don't think anyone is suggesting we commit to the run over the pass - just that having an effective running game is still important. I felt like last year if we needed a yard or two on the ground the only guy I had faith in to get it was Josh. I'd feel better if we had a strong enough running game to rely on our backs over Josh in more situations.

Got it.  Thanks.  I think that's right.  And I think that's what they think they can do with SIngletary and Moss, Kromer and Saffold.  

[hondo in seattle]

Maybe 300 yards is the wrong threshold for passing.   I wonder what the win percentage is for teams with 320 yards passing?  350 yards passing?

 

 

 

[CorkScrewHill]

@Big Blitz stated “ No you don't build a ground n pound O.

 

You just better not neglect your ability to run”.

 

I went back to the last 5 Super Bowl winning teams to see where they ended up in rushing and passing

Eagles -3rd rushing; 13th passing

Patriots - 5th rushing; 9th passing

Chiefs - 23rd rushing; 4th passing

Tampa - 29th rushing; 4th passing

Rams - 25th rushing; 5th passing

 

i am not certain that this says you need 300 yard passers to win, but it clearly contradicts the notion that you have to have a great running attack to be a Championship team.

[SinceThe70s]

2 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

Maybe 300 yards is the wrong threshold for passing.   I wonder what the win percentage is for teams with 320 yards passing?  350 yards passing?

 

 

 

 

I mentioned this earlier, but a few years ago I did a comparison of winning perecentage based on yards passing vs. winning percentage based on yards rushing. Wish I could find it. If I recall correctly, around 250-275 passing yards was the dividing line between winning/losing percentage. But throwing for more passing yards beyond 250-275 didn't increase winning percentage dramatically.  Can't remember the dividing line for rushing yards but winning percentage increased dramatically with more rushing yards - which isn't overly profound, kind of obvious.

 

 

 

[Big Blitz]

6 minutes ago, CorkScrewHill said:

@Big Blitz stated “ No you don't build a ground n pound O.

 

You just better not neglect your ability to run”.

 

I went back to the last 5 Super Bowl winning teams to see where they ended up in rushing and passing

Eagles -3rd rushing; 13th passing

Patriots - 5th rushing; 9th passing

Chiefs - 23rd rushing; 4th passing

Tampa - 29th rushing; 4th passing

Rams - 25th rushing; 5th passing

 

i am not certain that this says you need 300 yard passers to win, but it clearly contradicts the notion that you have to have a great running attack to be a Championship team.

 

 

Not sure I said you need to have a great rushing attack to be a championship team.  

 

I think championship teams can run the ball.  That it's a part of their game that a DC has to pay attention to.  

 

 

The Bills were in the top 10 in rushing last year.

 

Did we have a good running game prior to week 14?  

 

There are no absolutes.  The 49ers should have beat the Chiefs and 2 ridiculously lucky teams got to the SB last year.  Tampa finally decided to feature Fournette when they won it - in part because Mahomes oline was a disaster.  

 

I'm not saying nor would I ever argue to build and invest in a run first offense. 

 

This immediately becomes the assumption when people want to debate the importance of running the ball they think that means we don't want to be pass first.  Heck yes you have to be pass first.  That doesn't mean you need to throw for 350 yards a game.  

 

The stats still support running and stopping the run are vital in putting together a SB team

 

 

And I think we have that now.  I expect a big year from Motor.  I expect less Allen centric plays - designed runs etc.  And some Moss mixed in.

 

This will all make sense when you see what defendes do this year with a whole off season to emulate Fangios scheme.  

[NewEra]

24 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

I  actually don’t think balance is good…

specifically when Josh Allen is your QB… just be more efficient when you do run the ball…

What do you feel the pass to run ratio should be with Josh Allen as our QB?

[Sierra Foothills]

3 hours ago, KzooMike said:

Is this a causation/correlation issue?  Teams that are ahead run the ball more. Is this stat more reflective of that or a type of strategy within the game?

 

Exactly.

 

3 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

I'm excited about Motor and even Moss this year.  Their faith in those 2 confirms they believed the problem was more on the oline and that was and has been addressed.  The offense became lethal the last 7 games not just because Allen went nuts but so did Motor.

 

McDermott has said that teams "pass to score and run to win."

 

I think most of us expect the Bills to run more effectively this year.

 

2 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

Just came across a few comments on the internets about our "committee" backfield and "who cares more carries for them means less throws for Allen" stuff.

 

2 hours ago, artmalibu said:

What is the winning percentage when you have both a 300 yard passer and 100 rusher on the ground?

 

What I'd actually like to know is at how many team rushing yards does the winning percentage eclipse the 300 yard passing win percentage?

 

Every team in the league runs a backfield committee so IMO team rushing is a more revelant stat than individual rushing. Is it at 115 team rushing yards? 125?

 

1 hour ago, CorkScrewHill said:

I went back to the last 5 Super Bowl winning teams to see where they ended up in rushing and passing

Eagles -3rd rushing; 13th passing

Patriots - 5th rushing; 9th passing

Chiefs - 23rd rushing; 4th passing

Tampa - 29th rushing; 4th passing

Rams - 25th rushing; 5th passing

 

Also that blurb specifically mentions Indy, Tenessee, Dallas, and Cleveland... 4 teams that did not advance deeply in the playoffs during the time of the study (since 2017).

 

Doesn't the fact of zero championship games over that time weaken the study's findings?

 

[YattaOkasan]

2 hours ago, 1ManRaid said:

Last I checked Josh had like a 90% win rate in 300 passing yard games.  He's not putting up garbage time stats.

Feel like the other 10% has to be games that slipped away. Tampa bay last year and the titans slip are the only two losses I see and both probably should’ve been wins. 

[billybrew1]

3 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

Yes, theBills are planning to both; run the ball more and run the ball better. There is simple though…Reduce JAs beatings…by getting great at running they also become more diverse.

 

^^^

 

No you don't build a ground n pound O.

 

You just better not neglect your ability to run

 

[Matt_In_NH]

Can we easily get those stats by year further back?  It used to be a bigger divide.  You can see the shift in just the 5 years shown.    Back in the 80s and 90s you had a losing record when passing for 300.  

Edited September 6, 2022 by Matt_In_NH

[GunnerBill]

You run more when ahead. No further investigation needed. 

[Thurman#1]

5 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

 

 

 

Obviously a few variables 

 

But I think you would be hard pressed to find a team with a good running game that doesn't win games - even without an elite QB

 

It just really is a fact.  If you run and stop the run you will win much more then you lose - will it mean SB, probably not.  

 

 

 

As this pertains to us - we all know what needed to improve on offense.  

 

A legitimate running game.

 

Last years struggles in the first 13 games were the inability to keep defenses on their heels with a run game to respect.  

 

I'm excited about Motor and even Moss this year.  Their faith in those 2 confirms they believed the problem was more on the oline and that was and has been addressed.  The offense became lethal the last 7 games not just because Allen went nuts but so did Motor.

 

 

 

 

"Hard-pressed to find a team with a good running game that doesn't win games," you say? No, not at all.

 

It partly depends on what you call a good running game. Most yards? Most yards per carry? Most yards with QB runs eliminated? In any of these cases there are plenty of examples of teams with good run games that didn't win games.

 

The 8-9 Bears last year were 4th in the league in run yards and first in YPC. The 7-10 Seahawks were 3rd in YPC and 11th in run yards. The 2020 8-8 Pats were 3rd in the league in rush yards and 8th in total yards. The 2020 4-11 Eagles were 3rd in the league in YPC and 9th in total yards. 

 

You wouldn't be hard-pressed by any means. It's not that uncommon. Hell, the 7-9 2016 Bills led the league in YPC and yards, #1 in both. Take out all of Tyrod's rushing yards and they'd still have been 3rd in the league in runs yards.

 

Another problem, IMO, with your thesis here is that last year's Bills were quite good at running once they got Bates in place the second half of the year. 

 

Running and stopping the run are the two least-important facets of the game, with stopping the run being #3 and running being #4. Not that they're totally unimportant. They are not. But less important than passing and stopping the pass? Absolutely.

[Doc Brown]

5 hours ago, 1ManRaid said:

Last I checked Josh had like a 90% win rate in 300 passing yard games.  He's not putting up garbage time stats.

My first thought was how does this stat apply to us since Allen's rookie year.  It's 81% passing winning percentage when passing for over 300 and about 43% having one player rush for over 100 yards.

 

You're correct in that Allen doesn't put up garbage time stats.  We're 13-3 (including playoff games) when Allen throws for 300 plus yards (81% winning percentage).  The Titans loss last year where he slipped short on the qb sneak.  The AFC Chiefs divisional game where coaching malpractice occurred with 13 seconds left.  Then the Bucs game where we had to donate to the blind afterwards.

 

As far as our record since 2018 when we have someone rush for over a 100 yards we are 3-4.  Three of those losses coming with Allen rushing for more than 100 yards (Jets and Fins in 2018, Bucs in 2021).  One with Gore in 2019 against the Pats.

 

All this really tells me is we rely too much on Allen and should really focus on giving Singletary the bulk of the carries as we're 2-0 when he rushes for over 100 yards.

Edited September 6, 2022 by Doc Brown

[Doc Brown]

5 hours ago, artmalibu said:

What is the winning percentage when you have both a 300 yard passer and 100 on the ground?

A 300 yard passer and a 100 yard runner only happened once since Allen's rookie year and it was our OT loss against the Bucs where he accomplished both.

Edited September 6, 2022 by Doc Brown

[Thurman#1]

4 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

 

 

The stats still support running and stopping the run are vital in putting together a SB team

 

 

 

 

No, they really do not support that at all.

 

The Rams last year were 25th best at total run yards and 26th best at YPC.

 

The 2020 Bucs were 28th best at run yards and 26th best at YPC.

 

The 2019 Chiefs were 23rd in total run yards and 13th at YPC. On run defense? They were 26th best at total run yards allowed and 29th best at YPC allowed. 

 

Not only are they absolutely not vital but the last three SB winners have not been very good at one or both. That's a lot closer to immaterial than it is to vital. Being good at any phase of the game helps your team. But of the four phases, there are the two least vital.

 

 

 

Edited September 6, 2022 by Thurman#1

[CSBill]

But look closely, the winning % for running is trending down. Last year there was a big jump in winning % for 100 yard receiving and 300 yard games, was than an anomaly or an indication of a change? But either way, the 100 yard rushing % is trending down.