Internet Rumors of Zack Moss trade availability from an unverified Twitter account

[Locomark]

I hear some random Twitter account had an NFL source quoting a GM’s secretary’s brother in law saying someone is offering a 1st round pick for Moss, a 2nd for Hodgins, a 3rd for Blackshear, a 4th for Duke Johnson, and a 5th for the rights to Duke Williams because they would prefer not to draft next year. 

[BillsfaninChicago]

You know I have never seen Pierre Kingpin and Dunkirk Don in the same place at the same time. I am just saying… 🤔 

[Mark Long Beach]

On 8/30/2022 at 8:15 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea it isn't that they haven't got results from Davis, and I am optimistic Shakir is our long term starting slot receiver. But you can't rely on making a living that way. For those to be the highest drafted receivers in five years of this GM.... well he darn well better have hit on both or your WR room is going to be a problem. WRs in the first three rounds, running backs in the last 4 is a much better sustainable strategy. 

 

Yes, but we have a REALLY small sample size for numbers of drafts.   Lots of randomness happens in drafts, so plans get punched in the mouth.  Got to be able to roll with what happens. I feel VERY confident that McBean can.

 

While it is technically true that we haven't DRAFTED a wide receiver in the last five years with a high pick, we did TRADE a first round pick for an exceptional (and proven) WR in Steffon Diggs.    That's certainly investing a high draft pick.     

 

Besides, we still have to draft somewhat for need.   Not every hole can be filled by a free agent, sometimes you end up with OJ Howard.

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

Stefon Diggs is actually the highest drafted WR since Beane took over. We can't ignore the use of a 1st round pick just because it was used unconventionally.

 

And the fact that they hit on their WR picks in Diggs and Davis directly led to their decision making at that position in future drafts. If Davis had played like an ordinary 4th round pick they would have made it a point to try and upgrade him in the draft.

 

Like I see people comparing Beane's draft investment in the DL compared to the WR room. The difference is the DL picks have not hit at anywhere near the same success rate. You don't base your investments on how much you've already invested in certain position groups; you base them on the actual value of a position group at that time.

ah, you said it so much better than I did.   Agree completely.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

Stefon Diggs is actually the highest drafted WR since Beane took over. We can't ignore the use of a 1st round pick just because it was used unconventionally.

 

And the fact that they hit on their WR picks in Diggs and Davis directly led to their decision making at that position in future drafts. If Davis had played like an ordinary 4th round pick they would have made it a point to try and upgrade him in the draft.

 

Like I see people comparing Beane's draft investment in the DL compared to the WR room. The difference is the DL picks have not hit at anywhere near the same success rate. You don't base your investments on how much you've already invested in certain position groups; you base them on the actual value of a position group at that time.

 

Diggs was not a draft pick but I do not ignore that investment. The difference with the DL is not just whether the picks have worked. It is very obvious that they value high end depth on the DL more than high end depth at receiver. Not just their drafting but their FA activity tells you that.

[GunnerBill]

13 minutes ago, Mark Long Beach said:

 

Yes, but we have a REALLY small sample size for numbers of drafts.   Lots of randomness happens in drafts, so plans get punched in the mouth.  Got to be able to roll with what happens. I feel VERY confident that McBean can.

 

While it is technically true that we haven't DRAFTED a wide receiver in the last five years with a high pick, we did TRADE a first round pick for an exceptional (and proven) WR in Steffon Diggs.    That's certainly investing a high draft pick.     

 

Besides, we still have to draft somewhat for need.  

 

The problem with drafting somewhat for need... especially on days 1 and 2 is you end up justifying to yourself 3 day 2 picks in 4 years on running backs. And I don't think any of those 3 running backs suck. But it isn't moving the needle. The only running back drafted in that time who truly has moved the needle for his team is Jonathan Taylor. Needle moving running backs are very rare and the rest are ten a penny. So that as a strategic resource investment decision is poor value when you haven't picked a receiver on day 1 or 2 in five years. 

 

Don't get me wrong, this is an excellent Front Office. They have generally drafted very well indeed. Their strike rate on day 3 of the draft since this regime arrived is just about the best in the NFL. But it doesn't make then immune to any questioning. I get it you are probably never getting perfection. But what do you suggest fans do, never discuss strategic decisions the team make? 

Edited September 1, 2022 by GunnerBill

[HappyDays]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

It is very obvious that they value high end depth on the DL more than high end depth at receiver. Not just their drafting but their FA activity tells you that.

 

That's because their "depth" on the DL are rotational starters, and their depth at WR are only there to play special teams or fill in in case of injuries. Jake Kumerow and Tim Settle are ostensibly in the same position on the depth chart but their snap counts won't be anywhere close. This, along with the reason I mentioned in my previous post, is why I don't think people who try to paint a 1-to-1 picture between different positional investments are being entirely fair.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, HappyDays said:

 

That's because their "depth" on the DL are rotational starters, and their depth at WR are only there to play special teams or fill in in case of injuries. Jake Kumerow and Tim Settle are ostensibly in the same position on the depth chart but their snap counts won't be anywhere close. This, along with the reason I mentioned in my previous post, is why I don't think people who try to paint a 1-to-1 picture between different positional investments are being entirely fair.

 

Exactly the point. They value being 8 deep on the DL more than they value being 3 or 4 deep at outside receiver. They will always lean that way. I find it interesting that that in the SIX drafts of the regime, the FIVE of Beane they have only taken one defensive lineman on day 3 compared to 5 on days 1 and 2. They will back themselves to turn water into wine at DB, at WR, at TE, at LB... but not, seemingly, on the defensive line. That to me is where I think a slight adjustment is required as we move forward. Now Josh's cap hits are getting up there you can't have the John Browns and Cole Beasleys and Manny Sanders of this world providing the vet depth. So they are going to have to be a bit bolder earlier in the draft to keep that receiver room stacked and one of the positions that will have to affect is their draft investment in DL.

[Mark Long Beach]

On 8/31/2022 at 11:21 PM, GunnerBill said:

 

Exactly the point. They value being 8 deep on the DL more than they value being 3 or 4 deep at outside receiver. They will always lean that way. I find it interesting that that in the SIX drafts of the regime, the FIVE of Beane they have only taken one defensive lineman on day 3 compared to 5 on days 1 and 2. They will back themselves to turn water into wine at DB, at WR, at TE, at LB... but not, seemingly, on the defensive line. That to me is where I think a slight adjustment is required as we move forward. Now Josh's cap hits are getting up there you can't have the John Browns and Cole Beasleys and Manny Sanders of this world providing the vet depth. So they are going to have to be a bit bolder earlier in the draft to keep that receiver room stacked and one of the positions that will have to affect is their draft investment in DL.

 

The fantastic part of all of this is that it's coherent.   The defensive scheme matches the draft investments which matches the Free agent acquisitions which more or less matches the offensive scheme.   That level of coordination is astonishingly rare and one of several reasons I love Bean as a GM.   (Being fundamentally honorable is another)

 

 

McD/Frazier's Defensive scheme wants to play a mildly aggressive but fundamentally disciplined zone defensive backfield.   To avoid the zone being picked apart eventually, the goal is to have sufficient pressure from the front line to prevent the QB from getting enough time.  We haven't been that successful at getting our DLine to work that way.  Our worst defensive year was when we had to blitz at a way higher % just to get any pressure.

 

But over those years we have spent draft picks and $$ at DLine more than any other spot because that's what they feel is the most important aspect of the overall scheme and it hasn't fully worked yet.   Fingers crossed that the additions of Von Miller, Daquan & Settle along with the growth of the young DE finally makes this fully work.   So we have a defense to fear, not one that's just better than everyone else statistically.

 

The amount of free agents and money we've poured into the DLine is insane.

 

2022:  (only 5 FA contracts over $2m and 4 were to DL)

Von Miller DE $120m  6yr

Daquan Jones DT  $14m  2yr

Tim Settle DT  $9m 2yr

Jordan Phillips DT  $5 1yr

 

2021:  Only Obada, Sanders was only notable FA

 

2020:   3 out of top 4 FA contracts to DL

Addison DE  $30.5m  3yr

V Butler DT   $15m  2yr

Q Jefferson DT  $13.5m 2yr

Once we hit on Josh Allen, what's been our weakest part of the team?  RB & OL  We "solve" our OL by Keeping two capstones in C & LT and fill the rest by hurling lots of FA veterans along with an odd draft pick or two to see what sticks.  Every year.

 

We have an okay RB in Singletary, but he's not a game changer, so he keeps looking for more of a game changer.   I'm okay with that.  Especially since this is the last year of Singletary.  

 

We got 3 returning WR and a FA in Crowder.   I'm not worried that he gambled on a low WR pick in the 5th round (Shakir) rather than a 5th round RB.  I only care that it hits, and it looks like Shakir is a hit.