Bills cuts

[GunnerBill]

27 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Your points have been made by a lot of pundits recently.  My point was I believe the pendulum has swung too far recently.

It is a fact that Day 3 RBs perform at a much lower level than Day 2 picks.  That is a fact.  

 

That being said, I also know that as a whole, Day 1 RB picks are not a good idea and have said the same many times.

 

As to the Bills specifically, Singletary ended up being a good pick IMO.  I didn't think Beane and McDermott going with Moss the following

year was a good idea.  It ended up that 2020 was a bad year for RBs with Jonathan Taylor (2nd rounder) being the only great pick.

Edwards-Helaire and Gibson at the next level.  Neither of which were Day 3 picks.  While Akers was a 2nd rounder who was IR'd during

the Rams SB season, is not proof they would not have been a better team if they had Taylor on the roster.

 

So, I will agree that 2 3rd rounders in a row was not a great idea.  Cook was a 2nd rounder this year and none of us know what his worth to

the Bills will be.  That question will be answered in the next 4 years.  Looking forward to 2023 I think Cook, Moss and a cheap RB3 (maybe

a Blackshear, maybe another) maybe a good, diversified RB room.  Keeping JA from running in non-playoff, end of the game situations,

will be a plus.

 

I'll end by saying paying big money to a year 5 or later RB is a bad, bad move!   Beane hasn't done that, at least.

 

If it had just been Singletary I wouldn't have the same objection. 1 day 2 pick on running backs in 5 drafts is a perfectly reasonable investment. But 3 in 4 years is too many IMO for a team with an ELITE all world Quarterback. If we still had Tyrod Taylor or Fitz then it is a different story. If I was the Colts or the Lions or the Jets might I justify a high day 2 pick on a running back to prop up my less that outstanding passing game? Yep. But for the Bills, the Chiefs, the Chargers etc it is a poor allocation of resources on players that rarely move the needle in the modern NFL. Do day 2 backs out perform day 3 backs in general? Sure. But those teams with elite passing games don't need a bellcow. They don't need a star back. Day 3 guys like Myles Gaskin, Tony Pollard, Michael Carter etc would be perfectly serviceable for their needs. The Moss year was a particularly shallow class though. I remember saying that at the time. I thought there were basically 7 serviceable backs in that whole class and that has kind of been borne out. Moss was the 7th of that group. It just felt like the Bills for some reason had decided they "must have" another running back and forced it a tad. 

[The Dean]

2 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Many of us were disappointed with the positional value AT THE TIME and were even more disappointed when Beane doubled down the following year.  It is easy to say in retrospect, in a vacuum, well Moss and Singletary are at least competent players while plenty of WRs and DEs picked after them busted out - but if you extrapolate it out over time as a STRATEGY, you will go broke with that type of asset allocation approach.  You cannot use high picks on easily-replaceable assets, especially when the Bills aren’t even trying to focus their offense around an elite running back/game (nor should they).  Even when those picks “hit,” you’re stuck deciding whether to pay them big $$ on a second contract, where much cheaper replacements can be found in FA or the 6th round.  Folks are gonna lose their minds next offseason if they decide to pay Singletary and have to release or pass on more valuable veterans as a result - and that’s precisely the issue.  Was four years of Motor worth the high draft investment?

 

 

That has Nothing to do with my question. 

[Airseven]

Judging rounds 1-4, Beane has been about average for his classes. Bonus points for taking a franchise QB but relatively even on hits/misses.

 

Top tier (hits) - Allen, T. Johnson, Oliver, Knox, Davis

Bust tier (misses) - Phillips, Ford, Epenesa, Moss, Basham

Mid tier (debatable/TBD) - Edmunds, Singletary, Rousseau, Brown

 

I knock him for 2022 - trading up for Elam was questionable, RB in 2nd rd was questionable (bonus points for trading down), and Bernard remains a head-scratcher especially in light of OL needs.

 

For his five drafts I'd go B-/C+.

 

 

[Comebackkid]

What I never understood about Moss was the fact he isn't that much different than singletary size wise.   I think he had 10lbs and 2 inches on him when drafted.   If your going to go with a change of pace bruiser go full bruiser.    

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

In addition to the attributes you listed for Singletary and Moss, they're both considered excellent pass blockers which is obviously very important in the NFL in this day and age and particularly for Josh and this offense.

 

Cook on the other hand might be limited this year due to being a "work in progress" as far as pass pro goes.

I agree about Moss and Singletary blocking.  They're all round backs.  

 

If Cook ever becomes an allround back, he will need to improve in multiple areas.  I think the Bills drafted him to be a weapon, maybe a third down back, but not an all round back. If he becomes more, great.   

 

It's why the Bills may always  find their starting running backs in the third round.  Good, all round backs but not stars. Cook was drafted to be a weapon, like a receiver, and that's why they used a second him.  Another way of saying it is true running backs aren't going to be stars on this team.

 

[LABILLBACKER]

4 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

A few thoughts from reading the last few pages:

 

Singletary was a 3rd round pick. He's started 40 of 45 games over 3 seasons. That's good value for the 74th overall pick, especially considering he has one more season on his contract.

 

I don't view James Cook as more than a 8-10 touch a game weapon. As to comparisons with Thurman Thomas and Devin Singletary, Thurman had what looks like a sturdier frame than Cook and had nearly 3300 touches in his career. Singletary whose nickname is "Motor" is 5'7", weighs over 200 lbs and can squat 550 lbs.

 

Cook is both taller and lighter than either Thomas or Singletary and appears to have a slight build.

 

I think Cook can be an excellent weapon for this team but I don't see him as a starter or a workhorse.

Cook will do most of his damage on dump-offs.  I agree his slight build will keep him from being a primary ball carrier, at least this season. 

[Sierra Foothills]

2 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

I get that is what he believes… your missing the point some of us are making… we are saying it is that belief or strategy that is flawed. 
 

3 day 2 picks of RBs in four years is WAY too rich for my blood for a team who’s got Josh Allen as it’s QB. 

 

Maybe Scott but I'm willing to wait 2 more years to the expiration of Singletary and Moss' contracts before I make a final judgement.

 

2 hours ago, Airseven said:

Judging rounds 1-4, Beane has been about average for his classes. Bonus points for taking a franchise QB but relatively even on hits/misses.

 

Top tier (hits) - Allen, T. Johnson, Oliver, Knox, Davis

Bust tier (misses) - Phillips, Ford, Epenesa, Moss, Basham

Mid tier (debatable/TBD) - Edmunds, Singletary, Rousseau, Brown

 

I knock him for 2022 - trading up for Elam was questionable, RB in 2nd rd was questionable (bonus points for trading down), and Bernard remains a head-scratcher especially in light of OL needs.

 

For his five drafts I'd go B-/C+.

 

 

 

You say Beane is "relatively even on hits/misses in rounds 1-4." Please don't take offense but IMO this sort of analysis is meaningless until compared to all other teams. And to be accurate it should be a data-driven study taking into account many values (i.e.- 74rd overall pick started 40 games in 3 seasons, 5th in rushing yards from 2019-2021, etc). So to fairly rank every teams draft, every player in that draft should be graded and then their totals aggregated and then compared to the other teams drafts that year.

 

1 hour ago, Comebackkid said:

What I never understood about Moss was the fact he isn't that much different than singletary size wise.   I think he had 10lbs and 2 inches on him when drafted.   If your going to go with a change of pace bruiser go full bruiser.    

 

I see both sides of it. On one hand if you have an all-purpose back you're not tipping your hand as far as the play call. On the other hand If you can't clone Derrick Henry, it would be really nice having someone like a D'Onta Foreman to use as a sledge hammer.

Edited September 2, 2022 by Sierra Foothills

[NewEra]

5 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

More a question of strategy… No question they have a very good roster, but the high allocation to certain positions over others is where some fans are slightly skeptical.

Same goes for every team in every sport ever.  

[Ga boy]

7 hours ago, finn said:

Don't you think he's a bit light for a full-time back? 

Cook will be the featured back at some point.  Prolly not this year.  He has first step and pull away blur speed, cuts like Marshawn, vision like Thurman, and did I mention faster than LeSean?  BTW, he’ll be better than CJ. They will bring him along slowly due to blocking.  By playoffs and SB he’ll be the new wrinkle that opponents can’t solve and will have Bills faithful dancing on Chippewah!!!

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

You say Beane is "relatively even on hits/misses in rounds 1-4." Please don't take offense but IMO this sort of analysis is meaningless until compared to all other teams. And to be accurate it should be a data-driven study taking into account many values (i.e.- 74rd overall pick started 40 games in 3 seasons, 5th in rushing yards from 2019-2021, etc). So to fairly rank every teams draft, every player in that draft should be graded and then their totals aggregated and then compared to the other teams drafts that year.

 

That analysis has been done and Beane is solidly top 10 and indeed top 5 by most models. I think the slight knock on him before last season was Allen apart where were his stars but Oliver and Knox breaking out to a degree last year kind somewhat banishes those questions. And on day 3 in particular Beane's record against his peers is exceptional.

[hondo in seattle]

8 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Many of us were disappointed with the positional value AT THE TIME and were even more disappointed when Beane doubled down the following year.  It is easy to say in retrospect, in a vacuum, well Moss and Singletary are at least competent players while plenty of WRs and DEs picked after them busted out - but if you extrapolate it out over time as a STRATEGY, you will go broke with that type of asset allocation approach.  You cannot use high picks on easily-replaceable assets, especially when the Bills aren’t even trying to focus their offense around an elite running back/game (nor should they).  Even when those picks “hit,” you’re stuck deciding whether to pay them big $$ on a second contract, where much cheaper replacements can be found in FA or the 6th round.  Folks are gonna lose their minds next offseason if they decide to pay Singletary and have to release or pass on more valuable veterans as a result - and that’s precisely the issue.  Was four years of Motor worth the high draft investment?

 

It's a valid question but, for me, a little too granular.

 

We can hyperanalyze Beane's hit and misses but the fundamental truth is that he's built the best roster since Polian was here.  

 

All GMs make mistakes - player evaluation is not an exact science.  But Beane's overall body of work has been strong.

[Scott7975]

I like the Cook pick only because I am hoping he becomes a passing weapon for Josh that can get good YAC.  However, I am also in the camp of we spend too many resources on RB.  The running backs on the roster are good enough to keep a defense honest and thats all this offense needs.  I really hope Cook excells as a passing weapon in this offense.  Otherwise, I think it was a terrible pick.

[Coach Tuesday]

5 hours ago, The Dean said:

 

 

That has Nothing to do with my question. 

Lol what?  Nothing to do with it?  I have no idea if that particular poster vocally complained AT THE TIME that they passed on Terry McLauren.  I am telling you many of us were vocal about wanting better positional value with Day 1 and 2 picks.  That has EVERYTHING to do with your question.  What are you doing.

[The Dean]

1 hour ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Lol what?  Nothing to do with it?  I have no idea if that particular poster vocally complained AT THE TIME that they passed on Terry McLauren.  I am telling you many of us were vocal about wanting better positional value with Day 1 and 2 picks.  That has EVERYTHING to do with your question.  What are you doing.

 

 

My question was, and remains, "If I recall correctly he was viewed as a 3rd round pick, by many/most.  Were you vocally upset the Bills didn't pick him AT THE TIME?"  That was my question IN ITS ENTIRETY.  I never even commented on whether I thought picking an RB was a good or bad move. I simply asked a direct question. As you don't know that answer, you did NOTHING to answer the question.  I have no clue how you thought you addressed that.

 

[Coach Tuesday]

34 minutes ago, The Dean said:

 

 

My question was, and remains, "If I recall correctly he was viewed as a 3rd round pick, by many/most.  Were you vocally upset the Bills didn't pick him AT THE TIME?"  That was my question IN ITS ENTIRETY.  I never even commented on whether I thought picking an RB was a good or bad move. I simply asked a direct question. As you don't know that answer, you did NOTHING to answer the question.  I have no clue how you thought you addressed that.

 

Gotcha - sounds like you should’ve posed your question to him via a DM, instead of on a public message board since it has NOTHING to do with the topic being discussed in this thread, or the price of Gouda in Amsterdam.

[The Dean]

7 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Gotcha - sounds like you should’ve posed your question to him via a DM, instead of on a public message board since it has NOTHING to do with the topic being discussed in this thread, or the price of Gouda in Amsterdam.

 

Maybe. But it was a direct question to what he posted. Should he have DM'd the comment? Not quite sure of your point.

[ganesh]

How did a "Bills Cuts" thread morph into a debate on our Running Backs and drafting of them!

[The Dean]

24 minutes ago, ganesh said:

How did a "Bills Cuts" thread morph into a debate on our Running Backs and drafting of them!

 

Welcome to TBD.😂 And be thankful it didn't turn into a Edmunds thread. Or perhaps a Zach Ertz thread.

 

D'Oh!  I just screwed up. 

 

Definitely isn't the first time and probably not the last.

[4merper4mer]

On 9/1/2022 at 9:17 PM, 4merper4mer said:

Can you name a current team that meets your standards for success as an overall team, success at the RB position and an RB stable which has had a proper amount of resource expenditure?  

@ScottLaw Has not answering this made it easier for you to continue to whine?

[Scott7975]

3 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

It’s a message board dude… it’s an opinion(that’s been backed up by evidence from certain teams)  that you don’t need to spend the resources they’ve spent at the position to win… especially the Bills who have an elite QB… I mean look at the Chiefs SB season as an example. They had a washed Lesean McCoy and Damien Williams as their premier backs.

 

I agree on not spending the resources the Bills have but the Chiefs did spend a 3rd on Kareem Hunt in 2017 and a 1st on CEH in 2020