Bills cuts

[John from Riverside]

24 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

I agree that McDermott/Beane have made mistakes.  I am interested to see the six GM/HC combos who you think are better, though.

No one bads 100 but if people think the bean isn’t responsible for the Super Bowl caliber team we have going this year they are diluting themselves

[Gugny]

3 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

No one bads 100 but if people think the bean isn’t responsible for the Super Bowl caliber team we have going this year they are diluting themselves

 

Beane has made plenty of mistakes;  but he's also done many great things.  I personally love the guy and think he's at/near the top of his craft.  But OL and WR have been semi-neglected coming into this season.  We're also fresh off a KC loss that, in my opinion, was SQUARELY on McDermott.  So, as a duo, they've made recent mistakes and historically, they've also made some whoppers (Nate Peterman painfully comes to mind).

 

But like you said, no HC/GM duo is perfect. 

 

[finn]

5 hours ago, eball said:

Prediction:  James Cook is the starting RB going into 2023.  

Don't you think he's a bit light for a full-time back? 

[eball]

2 minutes ago, finn said:

Don't you think he's a bit light for a full-time back? 

 

Full-time as in how Singletary is used?  Not at all.

[JakeFrommStateFarm]

5 minutes ago, finn said:

Don't you think he's a bit light for a full-time back? 

Eckler is only 200lbs

[DrDawkinstein]

1 hour ago, John from Riverside said:

Beane follows his board it served him well so far

 

Right. The RB discussion is fun/interesting for all us armchair GMs, but I smirk when I see the criticism of "wasting" a couple of mid-round picks.

 

Valid criticism and discussion point, but we still have one of the best rosters in the league so not sure how much more Beane could have done.

 

Especially when I look back at the rest of the picks in both Singletary's 3rd round, and Moss's 3rd round. No one else jumps off the page as "We shouldve picked that guy instead". Even looking into the 4th rounds.

[MWK]

37 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Right. The RB discussion is fun/interesting for all us armchair GMs, but I smirk when I see the criticism of "wasting" a couple of mid-round picks.

 

Valid criticism and discussion point, but we still have one of the best rosters in the league so not sure how much more Beane could have done.

 

Especially when I look back at the rest of the picks in both Singletary's 3rd round, and Moss's 3rd round. No one else jumps off the page as "We shouldve picked that guy instead". Even looking into the 4th rounds.

 

In 2019, Terry McLaurin two picks later when we really needed a WR doesn’t jump off the page for you? I agree with you on 2020 though.

[DrDawkinstein]

11 minutes ago, MWK said:

 

In 2019, Terry McLaurin two picks later when we really needed a WR doesn’t jump off the page for you? I agree with you on 2020 though.

 

That was one (really the only name I noticed), and I dont love him that much. He certainly doesnt jump off the page as "oh man we really missed out on a future HoFer". Especially compared to what Beane did with the WR group anyways.

 

If there is any criticism it is the 2nd round Cody Ford pick over the plethora of Pro-Bowl WRs that were picked in the 2nd round.

 

 

Edited September 2, 2022 by DrDawkinstein

[The Dean]

12 minutes ago, MWK said:

 

In 2019, Terry McLaurin two picks later when we really needed a WR doesn’t jump off the page for you? I agree with you on 2020 though.

 

 

Wow, hindsight on this one. If I recall correctly he was viewed as a 3rd round pick, by many/most.  Were you vocally upset the Bills didn't pick him AT THE TIME?

[Patrick Duffy]

5 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

More a question of strategy… No question they have a very good roster, but the high allocation to certain positions over others is where some fans are slightly skeptical.

 

I get it, but it's probably like that for every team to a certain extent. There's some fans of every team that probably are skeptical about one thing or other. Regarding Bills however, sure there's a couple things I would have liked to been done a little differently, but I'm still pretty damn confident in this roster.

 

So we'll see how everything plays out

[John from Riverside]

1 hour ago, eball said:

 

Full-time as in how Singletary is used?  Not at all.

I also don’t think that this is his full-time wait I think you’re gonna see him add about 10 pounds going into season two

1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Right. The RB discussion is fun/interesting for all us armchair GMs, but I smirk when I see the criticism of "wasting" a couple of mid-round picks.

 

Valid criticism and discussion point, but we still have one of the best rosters in the league so not sure how much more Beane could have done.

 

Especially when I look back at the rest of the picks in both Singletary's 3rd round, and Moss's 3rd round. No one else jumps off the page as "We shouldve picked that guy instead". Even looking into the 4th rounds.

You also have to weigh those pics against other backs in the league there was a certain running back that a lot of people were fighting over they got taken by the Jets who is not look good in preseason that doesn’t mean that he won’t be good only he has not been good in the limited time I have saw him meanwhile Cook has done some nice things in preseason and then you look at other backs like white for the Raiders he looks phenomenal

[Coach Tuesday]

33 minutes ago, The Dean said:

 

 

Wow, hindsight on this one. If I recall correctly he was viewed as a 3rd round pick, by many/most.  Were you vocally upset the Bills didn't pick him AT THE TIME?

Many of us were disappointed with the positional value AT THE TIME and were even more disappointed when Beane doubled down the following year.  It is easy to say in retrospect, in a vacuum, well Moss and Singletary are at least competent players while plenty of WRs and DEs picked after them busted out - but if you extrapolate it out over time as a STRATEGY, you will go broke with that type of asset allocation approach.  You cannot use high picks on easily-replaceable assets, especially when the Bills aren’t even trying to focus their offense around an elite running back/game (nor should they).  Even when those picks “hit,” you’re stuck deciding whether to pay them big $$ on a second contract, where much cheaper replacements can be found in FA or the 6th round.  Folks are gonna lose their minds next offseason if they decide to pay Singletary and have to release or pass on more valuable veterans as a result - and that’s precisely the issue.  Was four years of Motor worth the high draft investment?

[Sierra Foothills]

A few thoughts from reading the last few pages:

 

Singletary was a 3rd round pick. He's started 40 of 45 games over 3 seasons. That's good value for the 74th overall pick, especially considering he has one more season on his contract.

 

I don't view James Cook as more than a 8-10 touch a game weapon. As to comparisons with Thurman Thomas and Devin Singletary, Thurman had what looks like a sturdier frame than Cook and had nearly 3300 touches in his career. Singletary whose nickname is "Motor" is 5'7", weighs over 200 lbs and can squat 550 lbs.

 

Cook is both taller and lighter than either Thomas or Singletary and appears to have a slight build.

 

I think Cook can be an excellent weapon for this team but I don't see him as a starter or a workhorse.

[Sierra Foothills]

 

As for positional value, like all GMs, Beane has players stacked on his final draft board. Like all GMs he takes positional value into account when stacking the overall board.

 

If he takes an RB in the 3rd round it's because he believes it's a solid value... and he's already discounted that player due to position.

 

Will Beane sometimes reach? He has admitted to taking a player (Terrel Bernard?) above his ranking if there's no one else he likes and if he can't trade down.

 

We all agree that no one bats 1.000 and that Beane does a great job. 

[mikemac2001]

13 minutes ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

As for positional value, like all GMs, Beane has players stacked on his final draft board. Like all GMs he takes positional value into account when stacking the overall board.

 

If he takes an RB in the 3rd round it's because he believes it's a solid value... and he's already discounted that player due to position.

 

Will Beane sometimes reach? He has admitted to taking a player (Terrel Bernard?) above his ranking if there's no one else he likes and if he can't trade down.

 

We all agree that no one bats 1.000 and that Beane does a great job. 

Dude don’t post facts in here 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Many of us were disappointed with the positional value AT THE TIME and were even more disappointed when Beane doubled down the following year.  It is easy to say in retrospect, in a vacuum, well Moss and Singletary are at least competent players while plenty of WRs and DEs picked after them busted out - but if you extrapolate it out over time as a STRATEGY, you will go broke with that type of asset allocation approach.  You cannot use high picks on easily-replaceable assets, especially when the Bills aren’t even trying to focus their offense around an elite running back/game (nor should they).  Even when those picks “hit,” you’re stuck deciding whether to pay them big $$ on a second contract, where much cheaper replacements can be found in FA or the 6th round.  Folks are gonna lose their minds next offseason if they decide to pay Singletary and have to release or pass on more valuable veterans as a result - and that’s precisely the issue.  Was four years of Motor worth the high draft investment?

This is an excellent argument, and it may be right.  

 

I don't know what's right.

 

But, to argue the opposite.   First, assume the kind of back McDermott wants.  He's not begging anyone for a first-round running back, because he wants a passing attack and isn't willing to give all those touches to Saquon.  Singletary and Moss are similar in that regard: they're both kind of multi-purpose-good-at-several-things-but-not great-at-any backs.  They're big enough to take the pounding of a #1 back, but they aren't power backs.  They're fast enough, but they aren't breakaway backs.  They can change direction in the hole, a key skill in the NFL, but they aren't really shifty.  They aren't guys who are going to be the premier weapon in the attack.   Where do you find backs like that?   There aren't a lot of them in the league, precisely because they aren't really good at one thing.  Plus, even, say, Duke Johnson, who might fit that bill, well, he's got a lot of years on him, not as a lead back but he's at an age when athletes begin to break down.   So, are you going to invest in the guy knowing he's likely gone in a year or two?  With Singletary and Moss, you've got guys who really know the system.   

 

The point is, I think investing in a third-round running back once every three years may be the best way to find people to carry the running back duties.   The Bills have gotten three nice years out of Motor, and with luck they'll get a fourth.  If he wants to chase big dollars then, great, go for it.  The Bills will stick Moss out there, probably never another guy in that mold, and meanwhile keep focusing the skill players you really want to feature - the receivers and pass catching running back, which is where they put draft capital this year.   

[Forlorn hope]

Are Moss and singletary just mediocre, or was the run blocking making them look mediocre

 

We'll find out 

[Sierra Foothills]

8 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

First, assume the kind of back McDermott wants.  He's not begging anyone for a first-round running back, because he wants a passing attack and isn't willing to give all those touches to Saquon.  Singletary and Moss are similar in that regard: they're both kind of multi-purpose-good-at-several-things-but-not great-at-any backs.  They're big enough to take the pounding of a #1 back, but they aren't power backs.  They're fast enough, but they aren't breakaway backs.  They can change direction in the hole, a key skill in the NFL, but they aren't really shifty.  They aren't guys who are going to be the premier weapon in the attack.

 

In addition to the attributes you listed for Singletary and Moss, they're both considered excellent pass blockers which is obviously very important in the NFL in this day and age and particularly for Josh and this offense.

 

Cook on the other hand might be limited this year due to being a "work in progress" as far as pass pro goes.

[hemma]

I’ve always felt that Singletary is pretty slippery.  Ranked 7th or 6th last year - see below.

He can drag people too, as shown in a few runs this year.

 

A lot better than he’s ‘ranked’ on tbd.  

Moss, eh.

 

https://www.fantasypros.com/2022/07/rb-broken-plus-missed-tackles-forced-percentage-analysis-2022-fantasy-football-javonte-williams-elijah-mitchell-ezekiel-elliott/

 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-most-elusive-running-backs-2021-season

[ColoradoBills]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

And for all that Akers is a nice player, his team won the Superbowl despite him hardly playing all season and racking up a fantastic 21 yards on 13 carries in the big game. He doesn't move the needle for that Rams team. The only running back picked since this regime has been in Buffalo who has truly moved the needle for his team is Jonathan Taylor and part of the reason he moves the needle because they have been bad at Quarterback. When you are special at Quarterback, like the Bills are, using three day 2 picks looking for that one every half decade needle mover at running back is not the smartest allocation of resources. 

 

Your points have been made by a lot of pundits recently.  My point was I believe the pendulum has swung too far recently.

It is a fact that Day 3 RBs perform at a much lower level than Day 2 picks.  That is a fact.  

 

That being said, I also know that as a whole, Day 1 RB picks are not a good idea and have said the same many times.

 

As to the Bills specifically, Singletary ended up being a good pick IMO.  I didn't think Beane and McDermott going with Moss the following

year was a good idea.  It ended up that 2020 was a bad year for RBs with Jonathan Taylor (2nd rounder) being the only great pick.

Edwards-Helaire and Gibson at the next level.  Neither of which were Day 3 picks.  While Akers was a 2nd rounder who was IR'd during

the Rams SB season, is not proof they would not have been a better team if they had Taylor on the roster.

 

So, I will agree that 2 3rd rounders in a row was not a great idea.  Cook was a 2nd rounder this year and none of us know what his worth to

the Bills will be.  That question will be answered in the next 4 years.  Looking forward to 2023 I think Cook, Moss and a cheap RB3 (maybe

a Blackshear, maybe another) maybe a good, diversified RB room.  Keeping JA from running in non-playoff, end of the game situations,

will be a plus.

 

I'll end by saying paying big money to a year 5 or later RB is a bad, bad move!   Beane hasn't done that, at least.