Raheem Blackshear Overreaction/Hype

[jwhit34]

Underdog stories, especially RBs and WRs, seem to be a tradition unlike any other for Bills fans, and probably fans of most other teams. 

 

This year is no different. In the tradition of Da'Rick Rogers, Naaman Roosevelt, Brandon Reilly, Dez Lewis, Joique Bell, Cierre Wood, Christian Wade, Antonio Williams and of course Duke Williams, this year we have Raheem Blackshear.

 

Raheem Blackshear is a nice story. UDFA, comes in and does well in the first two preseason games, doing a lot to at least make it a tough decision on cutdown day for the Bills. But this is a story we see almost every year. 

 

Let's look at this objectively in terms of making the roster and what he could potentially provide to the team:

 

In terms of running ability:

• He is not a more accomplished runner than Devin Singletary
• He is not a more powerful or effective short yardage runner than Zack Moss
• He is not faster or a better pass catching back than James Cook

 

In terms of special teams:

• He is not better than Taiwan Jones
• He is at best in the mix in terms of kick returner but one cannot make a case that he is by far the best return man

 

If all of that is accurate, then he is perfect for the practice squad. Remember, every team in the NFL passed on him for all 7 rounds. Sure, there are UDFAs that make it, but a good showing in preseason games vs. 2nd, 3rd and 4th stringers will not change the minds of many (any?) NFL GMs. Go to the ESPN Scores page and scroll through and see who led each game in rushing. There were a lot of Blackshear-esque performances by guys you never heard of. 

 

Blackshear is a nice story, but I expect him to be on the practice squad.

 

 

 

Edited August 22, 2022 by jwhit34

[RobbRiddicksTDLeap]

Joique Bell!!!

 

He had a lot of potential. Had some nice years with Detroit too. 
 

Blackshear has some great speed and a nice cut. Not sure he would be serviceable as a blocker or on ST.

 

I always want to go with youth, but it’s hard to think about letting Duke Johnson go, in favor of Blackshear. We could also be overhyping him to think he won’t be on the PS. 

[Dablitzkrieg]

Ok

[GunnerBill]

Agreed

[ddaryl]

I agree with the OP... If Blackshear makes the cut he will be 4th or 5th on the depth chart.

Yes Blackshear has shown something against borderline 2nd stringers/3rd stringrers and cut candidates. It may be enough to squeak in those last spots... 

I do not see the Bills even entertaining the thoughts of ditching Singletary, Moss, or Cook for Blackshear

Edited August 22, 2022 by ddaryl

[Don Otreply]

13 minutes ago, jwhit34 said:

Underdog stories, especially RBs and WRs, seem to be a traditional unlike any other for Bills fans, and probably fans of most other teams. 

 

This year is no different. In the tradition of Da'Rick Rogers, Naaman Roosevelt, Brandon Reilly, Dez Lewis, Joique Bell, Cierre Wood, Christian Wade, Antonio Williams and of course Duke Williams, this year we have Raheem Blackshear.

 

Raheem Blackshear is a nice story. UDFA, comes in and does well in the first two preseason games, doing a lot to at least make it a tough decision on cutdown day for the Bills. But this is a story we see almost every year. 

 

Let's look at this objectively in terms of making the roster and what he could potentially provide to the team:

 

In terms of running ability:

• He is not a more accomplished runner than Devin Singletary
• He is not a more powerful or effective short yardage runner than Zack Moss
• He is not faster or a better pass catching back than James Cook

 

In terms of special teams:

• He is not better than Taiwan Jones
• He is at best in the mix in terms of kick returner but one cannot make a case that he is by far the best return man

 

If all of that is accurate, then he is perfect for the practice squad. Remember, every team in the NFL passed on him for all 7 rounds. Sure, there are UDFAs that make it, but a good showing in preseason games vs. 2nd, 3rd and 4th stringers will not change the minds of many (any?) NFL GMs. Go to the ESPN Scores page and scroll through and see who led each game in rushing. There were a lot of Blackshear-esque performances by guys you never heard of. 

 

Blackshear is a nice story, but I expect him to be on the practice squad.

 

 

 

Stop presenting these comparisons in a logical fashion, you’re gonna burst a lot of bubbles here, 😁👍

 

Go Bills!!!

[sherpa]

Joique Bell was a first ballot August Hall of Famer for us.

[Matt_In_NH]

My money is on he is getting cut, will not be claimed and will be on the Bills PS.

[SoCal Deek]

While I appreciate the breakdown, the point of bringing in guys like Blackshear is to see what they can do. He’s certainly looked the part in both talent and heart. He may not make THIS team but he definitely didn’t blow the audition. Not sure what else he would’ve done in two weeks under the lights. And, while a walk on, it’s not like he went to a D3 school. I’m rooting for the kid. He showed me a ton when he was desperate to get back on the field after getting dinged against the Colts. My two cents.

[Long Suffering Fan]

19 minutes ago, jwhit34 said:

Underdog stories, especially RBs and WRs, seem to be a traditional unlike any other for Bills fans, and probably fans of most other teams. 

 

 

jwhit34 is Jim Nantz!  It is an honor to have you on this board.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

2 minutes ago, sherpa said:

Joique Bell was a first ballot August Hall of Famer for us.

Bell did make an NFL roster.
 

It’s going to be hard for Blackshear to make the Bills roster. The question is will he make any NFL roster? Most teams have a player like Blackshear that they’ll cut. I think it’s unlikely he’ll make a roster week 1. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

5 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

My money is on he is getting cut, will not be claimed and will be on the Bills PS.

 

https://www.ourlads.com/nfldepthcharts/depthchartpos/RB

 

Thats a lot of running backs.  Pretty much everyone in the 5th column will be cut candidates.  You have to really like a player you've never really met, to cut one of your own to bring him in.  Especially a 1st year UDFA.  I'd expect it to more likely happen mid-season when someone needs a fill in player for a few weeks if they were to do it at all.  

1 minute ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Bell did make an NFL roster.
 

It’s going to be hard for Blackshear to make the Bills roster. The question is will he make any NFL roster? Most teams have a player like Blackshear that they’ll cut. I think it’s unlikely he’ll make a roster week 1. 

 

He was on the Bills PS, then signed to the eagles active roster, then waived to likely go to PS, then claimed by Indy, then released and back with the eagles.  Then he was on the saints for a playoff run.  Then waived.. and signed with the saints again on the PS.  

 

So... he did sign some non-PS NFL contracts his first year.  He didn't really play at all until 2 years later in 2012.  

 

Cool story when you read it though, he went to wayne state and was security at the Lions training camp, then went on to have his best years of his career there.  

[hemma]

Joique Bell ended up having a couple of years with > 1000 combined yards.  

Six years in the NFL, so he’ll get a pension.

 

That’s a big success for a Div II UDFA.

 

[ddaryl]

28 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

While I appreciate the breakdown, the point of bringing in guys like Blackshear is to see what they can do. He’s certainly looked the part in both talent and heart. He may not make THIS team but he definitely didn’t blow the audition. Not sure what else he would’ve done in two weeks under the lights. And, while a walk on, it’s not like he went to a D3 school. I’m rooting for the kid. He showed me a ton when he was desperate to get back on the field after getting dinged against the Colts. My two cents.

I agree Blackshear defintely raised some eyebrows.... But like I said above he is not surplanting our top 3 RBs... he's in the conversation for 4th RB spot for sure, but odds are more in favor of PS

[BADOLBILZ]

44 minutes ago, jwhit34 said:

Underdog stories, especially RBs and WRs, seem to be a traditional unlike any other for Bills fans, and probably fans of most other teams. 

 

This year is no different. In the tradition of Da'Rick Rogers, Naaman Roosevelt, Brandon Reilly, Dez Lewis, Joique Bell, Cierre Wood, Christian Wade, Antonio Williams and of course Duke Williams, this year we have Raheem Blackshear.

 

Raheem Blackshear is a nice story. UDFA, comes in and does well in the first two preseason games, doing a lot to at least make it a tough decision on cutdown day for the Bills. But this is a story we see almost every year. 

 

Let's look at this objectively in terms of making the roster and what he could potentially provide to the team:

 

In terms of running ability:

• He is not a more accomplished runner than Devin Singletary
• He is not a more powerful or effective short yardage runner than Zack Moss
• He is not faster or a better pass catching back than James Cook

 

In terms of special teams:

• He is not better than Taiwan Jones
• He is at best in the mix in terms of kick returner but one cannot make a case that he is by far the best return man

 

If all of that is accurate, then he is perfect for the practice squad. Remember, every team in the NFL passed on him for all 7 rounds. Sure, there are UDFAs that make it, but a good showing in preseason games vs. 2nd, 3rd and 4th stringers will not change the minds of many (any?) NFL GMs. Go to the ESPN Scores page and scroll through and see who led each game in rushing. There were a lot of Blackshear-esque performances by guys you never heard of. 

 

Blackshear is a nice story, but I expect him to be on the practice squad.

 

 

 

 

 

I'd also add..........if you are ever going to take a chance at cutting the wrong guy then RB is the position to do it.

 

They aren't truly a dime a dozen any longer because you rarely see the best athletes play the position anymore........it's just the undersized guys who can't play any other position or the bigger guys without the hips to play in the secondary or hands to be a receiver........but the supply still FAR exceeds the demand because there just is not a lot that RB's are able to do under the rules of the game today to alter the impact of games.

[NewEra]

33 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

My money is on he is getting cut, will not be claimed and will be on the Bills PS.

Best case scenario.  I hope this happens.  

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

5 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I'd also add..........if you are ever going to take a chance at cutting the wrong guy then RB is the position to do it.

 

They aren't truly a dime a dozen any longer because you rarely see the best athletes play the position anymore........it's just the undersized guys who can't play any other position or the bigger guys without the hips to play in the secondary or hands to be a receiver........but the supply still FAR exceeds the demand because there just is not a lot that RB's are able to do under the rules of the game today to alter the impact of games.

 

Good running back 4.5 YPC

Bad running back 3.9 YPC

 

.6 YPC over 100 carries is 60 yards.  Over 200 thats 120 yards.  

 

Getting that extra .6 YPC is one long run.  Or just being used in different situations.  Job-share running backs run into the issue of one guy being short yardage, or pass catching, etc.  So the short yardage guy may have more TDs per touch but a low yards per carry.  Pass catcher might see light boxes.  Some offenses feature really good offensive lines or fullbacks and TEs that really open up holes.  

 

I think Blackshear's ceiling is probably someone like Duke Johnson.  We are cutting Duke Johnson too.  

 

[davefan66]

Better back than Duke Johnson.  And Duke is good.   Duke has shown straight ahead, good yard.  Blackshear is a bit shiftier, cuts better.  
 

Listen, Blackshear may not make the 53.  Most likely won’t.  Moss is back to his old form so 1 and 2 are locked.  Cook ain’t going anywhere.  Probably hit PS if both Duke and him are waived.  Kid can hone his craft there and who knows, maybe learn ST’s.

 

We can protect 4 PS players per week, no limit to how many times the same guy gets protected.  If he ends up elsewhere, wish him well.  In Beane I trust, so if the dude is here, great, if not, that’s fine.

[Scott7975]

I'll overhype if I want to!  In all seriousness, there is no room for him unless he becomes like some great kick returner or something.  Other than that, he will either make it to our PS or some team will take a chance on him.

[BADOLBILZ]

5 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Good running back 4.5 YPC

Bad running back 3.9 YPC

 

.6 YPC over 100 carries is 60 yards.  Over 200 thats 120 yards.  

 

Getting that extra .6 YPC is one long run.  Or just being used in different situations.  Job-share running backs run into the issue of one guy being short yardage, or pass catching, etc.  So the short yardage guy may have more TDs per touch but a low yards per carry.  Pass catcher might see light boxes.  Some offenses feature really good offensive lines or fullbacks and TEs that really open up holes.  

 

I think Blackshear's ceiling is probably someone like Duke Johnson.  We are cutting Duke Johnson too.  

 

 

Yeah those numbers are about right..........but average ones are super easy to find.......it's not like there are only two options.

 

Where the rubber meets the road is in the receiving aspect and throwing the ball to a slot receiver is almost always MUCH more productive than tossing it to even the best receiving RB.    It's not a fraction of yard difference.......it's multiple yards.   That's why the 3rd down back is basically extinct and it really limits the potential impact of a guy like James Cook as well.

 

As for Blackshear......Duke Johnson would be a great ceiling for him........but it might be a lot to ask given his very modest college career production.

 

Duke has been an above average runner(4.3 when league average carry in general is 4.2) and he has actually been one of the more productive receivers you will see from RB position..........his career 9.2 yp reception is notably higher than either of the receiving "fantasy RB Gods" named Kamara and McCaffrey.   Duke is the perfect example of how easy that kind of talent is to find at RB though.........and the fact that teams eventually come to the realization that it's better to just throw the ball to the slot receiver and get the extra yardage.......so they tend to usually end up in good supply in free agency even if they are notably above average.