How Good Will Our Defense Be In 2005?

[drnykterstein]

If our offense improves from last year that means the defense will have longer fields to defend which will probably translate into opposing teams getting more yards per drive, therefore more yards per game.  So I think we would drop down in that category.

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but.....

If our offense improves, that means they will spend more time on the field (I hope) and the defense will spend less time on the field, which would mean fewer yards. Also, longer the drive means fewer successful drives, less points against, and a better defense rating. Most of all less points will mean more wins.

[SouthernMan]

If our offense improves from last year that means the defense will have longer fields to defend which will probably translate into opposing teams getting more yards per drive, therefore more yards per game. So I think we would drop down in that category.

 

 

 

That's incredibly convoluted logic. It's not as if they were all starting at our 45 and scoring every time. Even though our O wasn't producing early on, Moorman and the special teams still gave opponents poor field position.

 

Having a better offense means more sustained drives and less time for our D to be on the field.

[nemhoff]

Somewhere between 8-11th in the NFL

[AKC]

So you're saying that Williams alone was responsible for 10-15 places for the Defense.  That's one hell of a player. 

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The difference between having a quality DT rotation like we had last year versus having one solid tackle, a one-dimensional pass rusher and a complete unknown is definitely worth about a dozen spots in the contemporary NFL. Anderson could help improve upon that if he's a lot more player than his reps in '04 suggest, but in any case we're still one more interior player away from a comfortable rotation for a 4-3 defense.

[ROSCOE P. COE TRAIN]

there is no short answer to a question like this. it is rather involved. however, the bills will do well, if these criteria is met:

 

1) stay healthy. backup play drops off in the nfl. clements has to play 16 so does shoebel so does mike williams so does spikes & etc.

 

2) they need shoebel and kelsay to produce 10 + sacks each.

 

3) they need mcgee to be sound at corner again

 

4) losman must manage game - unlike collins could

 

5) willis #21 must have 2,000 total yards. this means we win 10 games if he does so.

 

6) the TE spot has to be fixed

 

7 ) left tackle needs to be sure

 

8) the PLACE KICKER must be sound and win us 3 games alone.

 

9) field position and red zoen playcalling will be paramount. TC and MM will be called to duty.

 

10) the rest of the club is sound and ready IMO. we have some depth here and there (O and D line (interior) and at WR and defensive nickel and dime areas.

 

10-6 with our division would be good with a rookie Qb not asked to stretch the field - like balt asked boiler to do.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

The difference between having a quality DT rotation like we had last year versus having one solid tackle, a one-dimensional pass rusher and a complete unknown is definitely worth about a dozen spots in the contemporary NFL. Anderson could help improve upon that if he's a lot more player than his reps in '04 suggest, but in any case we're still one more interior player away from a comfortable rotation for a 4-3 defense.

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I disagree with you on two counts:

 

1. We are a quite a bit more than 1 player away from a comfortable rotation for a 4-3 defense.

 

We not only are missing last year' starter at DT, but as you point out one cannot be comfortable with what we have in personnel to replace him:

 

A. Adams (I assume the one solid tackle you mentioned) has really elevated his game the last two years. However, oddly this has come amidst his skills declining as they all do for us human beings as we get older, but numerous outside observers have noted how he has recommited himself to the game as he has gotten older and he takes far fewer plays off than he he has in the past.These little vactions did not matter so much when he was a younger lad as his incredibly quick fist step and the athleticism of youth made sure an opponent never took a play off because this just maybe 1 of the 3 plays Adams was working and he had the ability to recover if taken initially. He now throws fits when the coaches won't let him play amd makes efforts like a gamer.

 

However, he is getting older, Phat Pat was apparently a buddy of SA whowas pivotal to getting him here and getting him to be responsible and he is gone, and last year's Pro Bowl berth may be an incentive that keeps Adams working hard, OR is may be a kudo which allows him to sit back because he achieved his comeback. We'll see but I'm not comfortable.

 

B. Edwards (I assume the 1-D pass rusher you mentioned) strikes me as more than a 1-dimensional player. He struggled as a player initially failing to be activisted much of the season on a 3-13 Bills teams where many rookies earned a job starting because the team was so weak. Edwards could not even cut it against weak competition until an injury brought him into the line-up. However, the weak state of affairs on our DL earned him a starting job the next season not due to his pass rush skill (I think he totaled all of 2 sacks that year) but because of his run defense which was inadequate but more of his game. He was supplanted by Adams the next year and actually last year finally began to show some rushing ability (he probably equaled his career sack total in a reserve role last year).

 

No one should be comfortable with Edwards until he shows that he has retained his run stuffing abillity as a player (he probably has as he has bulked up while still improving his rushing ability. However, the question is not so much whether he can play but can he sustain that level of play over the course of a season as a starter.

 

C. I would disagree with the idea that Anderson is a complete unknown to only say he is a virtual on unknown. One cannot discount the college regard that made him a legit first day pick nad that he was active and played a few downs last year which is all one can reasonably expect behind a Pro Bowl player, Phat Pat amd Edwards who was recording nice high profile sacks. I'm well short of comfortable but think there is an unlikely but legit chance of him stepping in to start and it is quite likely he will contribute given his pedigree and last year's contribution.

 

Add to this in terms of discomfort with the 4-3 is that we only have the min imum 3 DEs on this roster. I disagree with those who judged Denney as a failure, because in reality last year, we could not have gone with 3 DEs all season unless there actually wasn't a pretty close call in terms of talent among Kelsay/Denney and actually it speaks to Denney's good play that he showed the flexibility to back-up both RDE and LDE.

 

In fact, Denney has shown athletic ability I find impressive in that he built beyond some intial inability to apply his body correctly which led to him being inactive a lot as a rookie to get a starter role his second year and show some athletic ability in short to medium zone pass coverage in the run blitz package. He also lined up a few times at tackle last season and played the swing role the Bills really need.

 

I think we are easily a DE and a DT away from any comfort with the 4-3.

 

 

2. My seond point of disagreement is that though I think we have more questions to answer than you say, I think we have some good answers for those questions in total and even if we do not find all the answers, I think it is not as bleak an outcome as you fear.

 

Though i am not comfortable with any of our individual answers for Phat Pat's replacement, I think one of the two possibilities should be able to team with Adams to equal the output in 04. There is even an outside chance for Bannan to recover his rookie output or even for Sape to step up.

 

Add to this that even if the personnel is not where we want them to be, Gray has certainly shown in terms of application (his first year with LeBeau where he retained the DC play calling duty and demonsrated he mastered application of LeBeau's scheme) and strategy (last year where he used the bye week well and game after game made half time adjustments to shut down what worked for the opponent in the 1st half) that I am in fact comfortable that he will take even sub-standard players and put them in the best position to what they can do.

[John from Riverside]

I'm sorry....

 

What ranking did our defense have last year?

 

We have ONE PLAYER gone from it......

[AKC]

B. Edwards (I assume the 1-D pass rusher you mentioned) strikes me as more than a 1-dimensional player.  He struggled as a player initially failing to be activisted much of the season on a 3-13 Bills teams where many rookies earned a job starting because the team was so weak. Edwards could not even cut it against weak competition until an injury brought him into the line-up.  However, the weak state of affairs on our DL earned him a starting job the next season not due to his pass rush skill (I think he totaled all of 2 sacks that year) but because of his run defense which was inadequate but more of his game. He was supplanted by Adams the next year and actually last year finally began to show some rushing ability (he probably equaled his career sack total in a reserve role last year).

 

No one should be comfortable with Edwards until he shows that he has retained his run stuffing abillity as a player (he probably has as he has bulked up while still improving his rushing ability. However, the question is not so much whether he can play but can he sustain that level of play over the course of a season as a starter.

 

C. I would disagree with the idea that Anderson is a complete unknown to only say he is a virtual on unknown.  One cannot discount the college regard that made him a legit first day pick

 

 

I disagree with those who judged Denney as a failure,

 

I think we are easily a DE and a DT away from any comfort with the 4-3.

2. My seond point of disagreement is that though I think we have more questions to answer than you say, I think we have some good answers for those questions in total and even if we do not find all the answers, I think it is not as bleak an outcome as you fear.

 

I am in fact comfortable that he will take even sub-standard players and put them in the best position to what they can do.

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I haven't seen any sign that Edwards can play low enough to be an effective run stopper at this level. He always seems to be trying to leverage from the top, something you can be effective in pass rushing if you've got good size like he does but a sure fire way to get knocked silly in the run game. There are WIDELY varied reports of his numbers from the 2002 season, I typically trust Stats on tackle statistics due to their methodology and the numbers they offer are 25 total tackles in 16 starts. PatW typically doubled that number until his diminished role last season, a season in which he still ended up with 37 stops. Edwards balance reminds me of a spinning top, and I've never seen a great DT with that flaw.

 

As far as Anderson's pedigree, we could start a list right now of recent 1st day DTs who have miserably failed to live up to their expectations. Hopefully Anderson is one of the exceptions, the fact that the team failed to give him time in any but I believe 3 games doesn't have to be an indication of their faith in him but at the same time it may. You don't have to leave our division to see the most effective defenses rotating 4 DTS in the middle- of a 3-4!

 

Denney might be a little better suited to play in a 3-4, but I agree he's a guy who has slowly figured out he needs to get under the pads of his opponent and he should be expected to have his best year yet, but then again if our interior rotation causes us to reduce the pressure we brought up the middle last year it will be a very long and unproductive season for our edge rushers.

 

My own opinion is that DTs are the most important players on any defense who faces West Coast influenced offenses regularly as we do, and while you can use lesser players outside the middle of the interior- the defensive line simply doesn't allow it. It also appears that we're facing a season in which my theory will be played out, and unfortunately IMO much to my dismay as a Bill's fan.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

there is no short answer to a question like this.  it is rather involved.  however, the bills will do well, if these criteria is met:

 

 

Thanks for a detailed football based answer to a question I agree is not addressed accurately by the short answers the web encourages (hence my too lengthy posts).

 

My reactions are:

 

 

1)  stay healthy.  backup play drops off in the nfl.  clements has to play 16 so does shoebel so does mike williams so does spikes & etc.

 

- Yep!  Injuries are impossible to predict with much accuracy. This actually part of the reason why I'm impressed with MM and why I think TD is doing the right thing.

 

A. MM impresses because like Belicheck he emphasizes that NFL pros are athletes first and football players second.  Even before BB got a lot of public praise and folks took note of his use of WR to fill the DB holes he had due to injuries, MM was having the Bills profit by using defensive players Bannan and Adams on the OL which led to statistical improvement in red zone production. His employment of Denney as a TE (though it did not lead to tangible production) was also notable.

 

He reversed course from the GW specialization to use Fletcher and Clements on ST.

 

Injuries are a wildcard, but MM has shown you can do things to try to deal with the bad wildcard impacts.

 

B. I did a post last week assessing our back-ups and their ability to step up if injury forces them to.  We will need to remain lucky on D (where only Vincent went down last year) as there is a big drop-off at LB even if the back-ups are adequate and on the DL where the margins are razor thin because we are 3 deep at DE and DT (at best).

 

However, TD has done a great job leading us into a good surplus situation on the O and ST.

 

2) they need shoebel and kelsay to produce 10 + sacks each.

 

 

- I doubt they will do this as I think Schobel saw the first downturn in his career of sack production I think in part because of the way he was used as he covered the short zone so the LBs got more sacks in the run blitz.  I have no problem with this as the Bills greatly increased their overall sack total.

 

These players would not only have to incease the quality of their play but be used differently to ring up 10+ sacks apiece.

 

3) they need mcgee to be sound at corner again

 

- He improved a lot as the season progressed, bt McGee struggled so much at CB over the course of the season i think it is a bit of a reach to call him sound.  I simply hope he is improved and not a huge negative at CB and if he threatens for the Pro Bowl at KR again that will be good enough to me.  Clements crawled into the Pro Bowl last year finally and even he had some real adventures at CB this season and arguably cost us the Jax game foolishly going for the INT instead of knocking the ball down.

 

I he is a sound CB that will be a step-up for him.

 

4) losman must manage game - unlike collins could

 

- Agreed. If JP tries to be Kelly or posters expect him to be it will be a lomg season.

 

5) willis #21 must have 2,000 total yards.  this means we  win 10 games if he does so. 

 

- I agree that if WM gets 2000 total we win 10 (probably more). He is not the receiving threat yet to do this though.

 

6) the TE spot has to be fixed

 

- I'm pretty comfortable with our TE depth. I suspect at least 1 if not two of three injured Bills (Everett, Euhus, Campbell to contribute this year.  I look for Neufeld or Trafford to be a reasonable back-up if necessary (particularly if the O lends itself to use of the TE as an H-back). Further, I do not think that our eventual starter at LT is on this team yet (a cap casualty such as Shelton or Whitfield) and if we still have injury uncertainty at TE Peters is going to force the Bills not stop him from catching passes by making him an LT.

 

Add to that even Gomez is setting the NFLE on fire at TE and I like our depth.

 

7 ) left tackle needs to be sure

 

- As said, I don't think he is on the team. If not, Gandy is unlikely but possible. I think Teague can do it, though the tremor effects up and down the OL are impossible to figure out.  Heck. maybe they aren't blowing smoke about Peters.

 

8) the PLACE KICKER must be sound and win us 3 games alone.

 

What 3 games did the PK decide last year (or even the year before)?  Lindell should not gave missed the chipshot v. Pitts. but the chances of getting him to match his good kickoff performance and oretty good onside kick performance by resuming the play he showed in SEA may be unlikely but strikes me as a better bet than expecting Rheem or some other FA kicker to show mastery in all three phases of the kicking game.

 

9)  field position and red zoen playcalling will be paramount.  TC and MM will be called to duty.

 

- I agree on its import, but personnel performance was a key to improving the red zone performance last year as replacing Smith with Bannan to run block for WM did the job.

 

10) the rest of the club is sound and ready IMO.  we have some depth here and there (O and D line (interior) and at WR and defensive nickel and dime areas.

 

I'm not sure what this means as I see depth issues to be solved in the interior lines, but I think we are rock solid with personnel depth for this year in the nickel and dime and in the secondary.

 

10-6 with our division would be good with a rookie Qb not asked to stretch the field - like balt asked boiler to do.

 

- I agree that one key is going to be for us to ask JP to do less (not take risls to win games on his own) and by managing the game we will actually get more in terms of production.

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