Warren Sharp fades the Bills - do they even get to 12 wins this year?

[ALLEN1QB]

Can't take anymore serious wearing that shirt.

[Dr.Sack]

When the Bills beat the Rams week 1 this guy will be choking for air.

[HOUSE]

If 12 games wins the AFC East then I don't care...You can have your home field Ice bowl advantage in Buffalo

I am staying home with the dog.

[billybrew1]

Davis should have monster game vs. the rams. I don’t think they have a corner that can watch him… also Crowder should have a big game as well…. Knox maybe too…. Knox probably gets covered by a Safety , can Bobby Wagner watch Cook?  IDK?

Butthe rams really don’t have an answer for Davis, Crowder and Knox…. If our OLholds up, we should have little problem moving the ball. We’ll probably catch Ramsey trying to cheat and hit Diggs for a big gainer at some point as well. Ramsey will hate how Davis and Co. are tearing them up and he’ll leave Diggs which is a huge mistake. I think this happened the last time we played the rams only now their secondary is worse minus Darius Williams and Eric Weddle…. The are built to matchup offensively but our defense is clearly better than theirs and we have the better QB…. The rams have their own OL problems as well…

 

Bills win, 32 - 27…..

[SirAndrew]

The key to getting 12 wins is to avoid the bad losses we seem to fall into too frequently. We can’t longer afford loses like the Jags, and Colts blowout last season.  That’s the difference between home field and a possible title. I think this is a great football team, and I have very high hopes. We just need to be clean that issue up. 

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

There’s truth in what he says, but predictably the homers will grab their torches and pitchforks … we’ll know soon enough 

[SoMAn]

He’s not wrong about losing to 4 of 6 playoff team. The 2 wins were against Pats and Chiefs- 2 teams they also lost to (including playoff loss). 
 

The Bills are being hyped up pretty good, possibly because of their last 2 nationally televised playoff performances.  
But reality check- they lost 7 games last year. They have several new coaches and players. They DO have a much harder schedule. 
They’ve got their work cut out for them. There’s no guarantee they make the playoffs let alone super bowl. 
I think Warren is playing counterpoint to all the hype. We’ll find out who’s right in the next few months. 

[FilthyBeast]

2 minutes ago, SoMAn said:

He’s not wrong about losing to 4 of 6 playoff team. The 2 wins were against Pats and Chiefs- 2 teams they also lost to (including playoff loss). 
 

The Bills are being hyped up pretty good, possibly because of their last 2 nationally televised playoff performances.  
But reality check- they lost 7 games last year. They have several new coaches and players. They DO have a much harder schedule. 
They’ve got their work cut out for them. There’s no guarantee they make the playoffs let alone super bowl. 
I think Warren is playing counterpoint to all the hype. We’ll find out who’s right in the next few months. 

 

Also one thing that is not talked about enough IMO is McDermott's overall record against playoff teams which should give everyone pause given what this year's schedule looks like on paper.

 

Even if his best season here during the weird 2020 covid year, we only played 5 playoffs teams that year and went 3-2 in those games (the only year he's also had a winning record in such games).

 

And if you dig deeper in those games:

 

W - Rams (blew a massive lead and got a fortuitous 4th down call in the closing minutes to comeback and win)

L - Chiefs (were handled from start to finish in a game that truly was never close)

L - @ Titans (This was the reschedule covid game and we were blown off the field)

W - Seahawks (This was the 'AJ Klein' game and overall great performance, but seahawks team on decline)

W - Steelers - (They lost 4 of 5 games to finish the year including this one before being routed by Browns in playoffs).

 

Things will have to change dramatically this year for the Bills to live up to lofty expectations.

[JakeFrommStateFarm]

Warren Sapp is a HOF player so we may want to give some credence to what he says

[gobills404]

2 hours ago, MPT said:

 

That grid was published before the season started based on projected win totals. The Bills were 9th in their model. Retroactively -- based on actual win totals -- the Bills ended up 1st. 

Good catch. In the google search results it said march of 2022 for some reason.

[BigDingus]

1) Bills went 1-3 against the AFC South last year, so even if the AFC North is tougher, going 1-3 again wouldn't lower their W/L record from last year.

 

2) Last season's NFC South was better overall than the NFC North (who we play this year). NFC South was 34-34, while NFC North was 30-37-1.

 

3) We still play the Chiefs (who we beat last year).

 

4) We also play the Titans again, so even if we lose, it doesn't signify a worse record than last season.

 

5) The only major standout is playing LA Rams instead of Washington. 

 

*Last season the Bills finished 11-6, & I don't see the record suddenly taking a nosedive just based on stronger strength of schedule. When you actually breakdown the failures from last year, you can easily see why it doesn't change much.

 

The 2021 Bills lost to the Jaguars. We lost to an inferior Pittsburgh team at home. We got blown out by the Colts at home. The 2-4 record against playoff teams were all 1 score games: 

 

*Pittsburg - lost by 7

*Titans - lost by 3 (went for it on 4th down hoping to win, rather than kick FG to play for OT)

*Patriots - lost by 4 (it was our own homefield conditions working against us, sh*t happens)

*Bucs - lost by 6 in OT

 

We also showed TWICE we could hang with/beat the Chiefs in Arrowhead. Showed that when weather isn't a factor, we can dominate the Patriots. We nearly beat the #1 seed on the road while they still had Henry in good health. Played Tom Brady into OT. 

Point is that even though they fell short against some good teams, none were out of reach. Several we should've won but came up short.

 

***FINAL POINT: The Rams were 2-5 against playoff teams... THEY WON THE SUPER BOWL!!!***

 

/This ends today's Ted Talk

 

[Chaos]

1 hour ago, JakeFrommStateFarm said:

Warren Sapp is a HOF player so we may want to give some credence to what he says

Warren Sharp is not Warren Sapp. 

[ProcessAccepted]

The whole premise of this take is a little off. Do they "EVEN" make it to 12 games? Winning 12 games to me , imo, tbh, is not a routine achievement. After a quick search of Warren Sharp's tweets I'd say routine would be a step up

 

[MJS]

The Bills completely underperformed last year, though, by most people's expectations. It wasn't until after the Tampa game that they went on a run and became the team we thought they could be, and then Josh Allen and the offense REALLY came alive in the playoffs.

 

So, detractors pointing to last year, which was kind of a disappointment for much of the year for Bills fans, shouldn't be a big surprise. The reason why there is so much hype now is because of how the Bills finished the season and then how Josh became Superman in the playoffs.

 

This is nothing new. People just seem to be forgetting how last season went. There was legitimate concern for the offense for good portions of the season.

5 hours ago, JakeFrommStateFarm said:

Warren Sapp is a HOF player so we may want to give some credence to what he says

Let me know when he says something.

[corta765]

Warren is legit and he is speaking strictly in terms of betting which I get and brought up some valid points.

 

I always look at the season like this when gauging where I think the record will lie:

 

Games You Should Win:

NYJ, at NYJ, MIA, NE, TEN, PIT, at CHI, CLE, at DET, MIN

 

50/50 Games:

at KC, GB, at MIA, at NE, at LAR

 

Underdog:

at CIN, at BAL

 

In theory with this idea the Bills would be 12-5 figuring they win what they should, go 2-3 in 50/50 games, and lose the underdog games. But last season showed just because a game the Bills should've won like at JAX or NE or PIT were losses. Using my model on how I view the games they basically have 7 which if they lost I wouldn't be surprised which does not give much rope to mess up in the ones you need to win. I would also add that the Bills need to be better at home as in 2020 they went 7-1, but last year they went 6-3. Go 7-1 at home this year while winning games at NYJ, at CHI, and at DET gets you to 10 wins with plenty of rope where you need just two to get to 12 which may be what takes the 1 seed again as the AFC will beat itself up.

Edited August 3, 2022 by corta765

[C.Biscuit97]

I think I died at some point last year and made it to heaven. Bills fans are upset about not being predicted to win 12 games!!! What a world. 

[ColoradoBills]

The Bills did underperform too many times last year.  Then they went to KC and lost again.

Players (and coaches) know last year's KC game would have been a win at home.

 

The whole "take one game at a time" thing is going to ring true this year with the Bills and the goal is the #1 Seed in the AFC.

 

Edited August 3, 2022 by ColoradoBills

[freddyjj]

looks like Andrew McCarthy and Bernie (the dead guy) had a kid

 

[corta765]

On 8/1/2022 at 7:04 PM, SirAndrew said:

The key to getting 12 wins is to avoid the bad losses we seem to fall into too frequently. We can’t longer afford loses like the Jags, and Colts blowout last season.  That’s the difference between home field and a possible title. I think this is a great football team, and I have very high hopes. We just need to be clean that issue up. 

 

2020 showed the blueprint if you want to control your destiny. AFC #1 seed has averaged between 12-14 wins a year, 2020 KC just happened to get to 14 and we weren't ready. Bills were 7-1 at home in 2020 and they did not have a single bad loss (Without hail murray they were 14-2). Last year 6-3 with bad losses to PIT and NE wind game not including the road JAX loss and TEN conversion fail, they weren't crisp and it hurt. Get back to 7-1 at home this year and that in itself can help right the record to what you want.

[Mikie2times]

Buffalo's offense has been completely derailed for long stretches in games at times. Allen and his legs generally being the only savior when this occurs. Our defense has been prone to a bend but don't break style which breaks more as the competition increases and we struggled against power run teams. Our division is unquestionably better and the AFC is insanely deep. I do think we are one of the best teams, if not the best as you forecast out this season.

 

That said, we are everybody's favorite and the reaction in this thread to what Sharp said shows the value from a sports betting perspective.  Win or lose, it's unlikely that value exists on this over as everybody is on Buffalo. To take that side, you have to say Vegas just missed on this. Which I don't like to say. The reality is they need to get to 13 wins to cover this bet, that is very difficult. A lot of things need to go correctly for that to happen. I sure as hell hope it does. I can't wager on this, but if this wasn't my team I would fade the public and take the under. I would only play over at 11.5 which I think is the fair total on this. 

 

Action sports which offers some really good insights had this to say. I agree with all of it. They actually have 11.5 but -130/-140 for the over. Too steep a tax for me. 

 

Buffalo Bills
It’s remarkable to see a team with a 11-6 record go 0-5 in one-score games. The Bills could have easily been a 13- or 14-win team if they won a couple of those.

The Bills are the No. 1 team in my power ratings and the team to beat in the NFL this season. Buffalo benefited from having the second-best injury luck and the easiest strength of schedule last season, and its depth will be tested more this season against the 11th-toughest schedule.

I’m showing some slight value on the Bills to go Under 11.5 wins at +120, but this is a team I’m uninterested in fading.

Verdict: Lean Under 11.5 (+120, Caesars)