Alphas Version 1 Positional Battle Breakdown: Slot WR - Surprise cut looming?

[Alphadawg7]

This battle is one of the most intriguing to me on the roster given its wide open from starter to backups, but also in how this position might change some this year than in years past.  While there are more technically competing, there are really only 5 slot WR's who are legitimately in the race for a roster sot:  Crowder, Shakir, McKenzie, Stevenson and Tavon.  I don't list Hodgins, because I just do not see a path for him to the final roster based on the other 5 ahead of him.  

 

Overall, this is going to be a tough roster to make for anyone who does not have a locked down roster spot at any position.  And I think that is especially true at the slot position, where each guy competing has an interesting list of pros and cons that makes this battle tighter than I think some think.  

 

But as I really look at and break down this position battle, things begin to stand out to me...

 

There are really only 3 possible outcomes:

1. 4 make the roster - Seems unreasonable to think we will keep 4 "slot" guys, not impossible, but with all the other tough roster decisions, this seems unlikely.
2. 3 of them make the roster - I think this is the more likely scenario where 2 are the starter and backup that rotates in with the 3rd mostly being a return guy.
3. They only keep 2 - For this to happen, one of them would have to be the primary kick returner, or someone from another position wins the KR duties.  

 

First lets just look at what the slot position has been the past 2 seasons:

• We only kept 2 guys, Beasley and McKenzie to handle slot duties.
• Beasley as we know dominated the snaps, targets and receptions.
• Our 2nd slot WR averaged just 25 receptions, and 230 yards (both years was McKenzie)

 

With our backup slot player seeing very few targets and snaps previously here, its hard to imagine we keep 3 unless one of those 3 is a kick return specialist.  

 

Next lets look at what new factors could impact the usage rate of the position overall this year:

• We have a new OC who has a history of using his TE's when he played QB.  We signed OJ Howard to compliment Knox and reports already surfacing of signs we may use more 2 TE sets this year.  
• Gabriel Davis seem poised for a big roles as a featured #2 WR.
• It was obvious in FA they wanted a receiving specialist out of the backfield and ultimately drafted Cook who will play a lot this year and take some of the targets that normally were going to Beasley

 

Target Distribution:  Last years targets and how they might differ this season

• Davis and Sanders combined for 135 targets last year opposite Diggs, while Diggs got 165.  I think Davis is going to get at least those same 135 targets, and might even see some above that this year as the featured #2 poised for a breakout.   Wouldn't surprise me to see him reach 150+ targets, especially with the way Diggs draws the most attention.  
• Our RB's last year combined for 96 targets, with 50 of those coming from Devin.  I think the addition of Cook could see that increase by at least 30 targets, if not more, as all signs seem to point to that being the intent.  
• Our TE's combined for 83 targets last year, Dominated by 71 to Knox.  There is reason to believe the overall TE targets could increase this year with the addition of Dorsey as OC and Howard as the 2nd TE.  I think Knox probably stays in that 70-80 range, but I bet Howard has more than the 12 targets Sweeney got last year and pushes 25+ targets.  
• Run game impact:  Also expecting to see the run game more involved this year, which will take snaps from the passing game, and therefore potentially impact targets.  
• Slot receivers (dominated by Beasley's 112) saw 138 targets in 2021, which was 3 less than 2020 despite the fact we had a 17th game in 2021.

 

So the slot position already saw a slight decline in targets last year.  Now with Beasley gone, its reasonable to assume the position itself will be less dominated by a single player and also likely see another slight total target decrease overall.  While still a valuable position, I think its slightly diminished in importance heading into this season, which will make it even harder to justify keeping an extra player they may not need here.   

 

So where does that leave us...we have 5 guys in a legitimate completion for not only the starting designation as the slot WR, but also up backup duties and potentially primary kick returner duties.  So how many guys will they actually keep at the slot?  

 

Interesting questions that could make decisions harder:  

1. What if Shakir locks down the #2 spot at the slot, or even emerges as a surprise week 1 starter like Groot surprisingly did last year?
   1. Shakir is by far the safest and practically a lock for the roster.  Not only is he standing out the most so far, they were high on him before the draft and this kid is viewed as the future of the position.  He was probably my favorite pick during the draft and I think he should have been a 2nd rounder personally.   And they also know there is no way they could safely hide him on the PS, therefore he will be on the roster come week 1.  
      1. It's not out of the question he could out right win the starting nod (although less likely), especially if they feel the slot role will be less vital than Beasley had been in the past with all the weapons in the offense and emergence of Davis.
   2. If Shakir is the primary backup (or even starter) would they really keep a 3rd slot guy that doesn't return kicks?  We are talking about a position that saw the primary backup slot WR average just 25 rec and 230 yards a season the last 2 years in these prolific offenses.  So what value would a 3rd slot guy be if not returning kicks?
2. What if Tavon or Stevenson locks down the return duties, making one of them an automatic lock for a 3rd slot WR kept? 
   1. With Shakir locked up, that would mean we have 2 slot guys being kept in Shakir and Tavon/Stevenson, so who would be the 3rd?  If Crowder earns the starting nod, where does that leave Mckenzie and vice versa?  Again, just hard to see them keeping 4 slot WR's when we barely used our 2nd guy the past 3 seasons as it was.  

 

What I think is most likely going to happen:  We keep 3 slot receivers - Primary, Backup, and KR  

IMHO, only 2 receivers will be kept to take the majority, if not all, the snaps on the field as a slot WR.  And one of those is certainly going to be Shakir.  The only justification to keeping a 3rd slot guy will be as a returner IMHO.  Its possible that either McKenzie or Shakir could surprise and win the returner duties, but I think its less likely.  They didn't like McKenzie as a returner last year, and while Shakir did return kicks in college, it wasn't something he was a major standout for.  

 

I do have a feeling the KR duties will be won by either Tavon or Stevenson.  I think of all the players on the roster they are looking at, they make the most sense.  If I had to pick one today, I think Tavon has had the better camp so far and his better ability as a receiver and his experience overall edges out Stevensons youth.  Plus, they can still stash Stevenson on the PS.  

 

One spot to fight for:  Crowder vs McKenzie  

Assuming Shakir secures one of the top 2 spots, that would leave a battle really between Crowder and McKenzie for the other slot WR spot leading to one of them being a surprise cut/trade this preseason.  

• Starter role (Shakir as primary backup):  I think this favors Crowder based on how more accomplished and proven he is as a starting slot WR and the fact that I don't think the staff really views McKenzie as that type of player.  
• Backup role (Shakir surprises and wins primary role):  I think this would be more favorable outcome to McKenzie as I think they are much more comfortable with him in a backup role instead as the primary slot WR.  

 

Crowders biggest issue has been health having missed 4 games or more in 3 of the past 4 seasons.  But, he is the most accomplished slot player on the roster, and has done well while playing in bad offenses with bad QB's most of his career.  He has a lot of potential here playing along side so much talent and catching passes from an elite QB.  

• But, he is off to a slow start just given hes been held out everyday for tightness already as it is.  He will need to get on the field soon and start showing he can stay healthy and show that potential if he wants to start establishing himself as a potential starter here.  

 

When I look at McKenzie and his time here, some things stand out to me:

• The staff doesn't seem inclined to involve him.  McKenzie every off season seems to have great camps, and all this buzz comes up about how he will have a bigger role and be a real weapon for us that season.
  • But to date, its still not happened, and even with an extra game last year and Beasley with a slight decline and missing time, McKenzie had less targets, less catches, and less yards than in 2020.  He has never had more than 30 receptions in a season and never reached 300 yards receiving either.  
  • He even has healthy scratches since being here, including last year.
• They resigned him cheap, not for an amount that would make you think they see him as a vital piece of the offense.  
• We then proceeded to sign 2 more veterans in Crowder and Tavon, as well as draft Shakir.
• Our staff doesn't seem to want to rely on McKenzie to return kicks either. 

 

When I really look at al that above, what seems to be clear to me is while they like McKenzie, they just don't view him as a heavy workload player.  The staff hasn't shown they view McKenzie as a guy they have to find a way to get on the field outside some specific gadget plays.  And our FO did not behave in a way that showed confidence that he could take over for Beasley giving him a small deal and going out and bringing in more accomplished guys and drafting a promising rookie.  

 

My guess/opinon today before pads:  McKenzie is a surprise cut/trade (assuming Crowder stays mostly healthy)

FIRST:  I want to make it clear, I DO LIKE MCKENZIE.  Not at all campaigning against him, just looking at it from an unbiased view in how I think things could shake out based on data, roster makeup, roles, etc all discussed above.  By no means is this a "guarantee", especially since we still need to see Crowder on the field and how he does with Josh...and can he stay on the field.  

 

Ultimately, I think Crowder is just the better player in a year we are SB or bust essentially.  And quite honestly, I think Shakir is going to get relevant snaps and there are other guys like Cook (or even Tavon if he wins the KR duties) that can run some of the gadget plays we have used McKenzie for in the past.  

 

So, even though I like McKenzie, I am starting to think he could be a surprise cut/trade.  I think the two biggest impacts to McKenzie will be the rise of Shakir and the fact they don't want to use him to return kicks.  I just can not see them justifying keeping 3 slot WR's unless one is returning kicks.  So I think McKenzie is "starter" or bust almost, and I just can't get past the belief that I don't think the staff views McKenzie as a season long heavy workload guy.  So his best path to the roster is as a backup more so than a starter IMHO.  

 

This is just an opinion on what I think might happen as we sit here before pads go on.  Still a lot to see and develop during training camp and preseason and will update as the the preseason goes on.  

 

 

 

Edited July 29, 2022 by Alphadawg7

[GunnerBill]

Isaiah McKenzie is a LOCK for this roster.

[Andrew Son]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

Isaiah McKenzie is a LOCK for this roster.

I think they all are.

 

And with the versatility some of our DB's are showing, maybe we go light there and carry an extra potential weapon in Austin.

[Bruffalo]

I don't think you sign McKenzie to a 2 year deal if you're unsure about his role.  

 

I think Crowder, if anyone, is going to be the odd man out of the 3.  I don't think he's getting cut though.  Shakir doesn't make it through waivers so he stays on the 53.  I think Stevenson has as good of a chance to make the roster as Hodgins does, which is to say next to zero. 

 

Forgot to mention Tavon Austin, I think it's unlikely he makes the time unless they are really not confident in the return options. 

Edited July 28, 2022 by Bruffalo
Forgot about Tavon.

[buffaloboyinATL]

I voted that all 3 make the team, and that McKenzie will be the opening day starter.  My only caveat is that if Crowder returns very soon, and lights it up in practice, he could still win the #1 slot receiver role.  However, if Crowder is not healthy soon, and McKenzie and Shakir continue to shine, Crowder may end up on the IR to start the season.  

[H2o]

3 make the team, those three being McKenzie, Crowder, and Shakir. I think Shakir also has some positional flexibility and can be moved around to multiple WR spots. McKenzie week 1 starter, 

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, SWATeam said:

I think they all are.

 

And with the versatility some of our DB's are showing, maybe we go light there and carry an extra potential weapon in Austin.

 

I think all 3 make it. I don't have Crowder as a lock yet. He needs to get healthy and get on the field. But Isaiah has not only been getting the 1st team reps he has had a great week per Sal C and Joe B. Both have commented on improved route running and safe hands. And I think Josh trusts him. And Brandon Beane isn't trading away Josh's guys. 

 

Sal said last night he thinks Isaiah is a lock and I agree totally. 

[jkeerie]

Last year we kept 7 WR's:  Diggs, Beasley, Sanders, Davis, McKenzie, Kumerow and Stevenson.  Bear in mind that our returners came from this group as well.

 

I think this year we still carry 7 WR's:  Diggs, Davis, Mckenzie, Crowder, Shakir, Kumerow and Austin.  Unless Stevenson lights it up in camp, I think he gets relegated to the PS if he clears waivers, as well as Hodgins.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

If McKenzie wins the slot job I won’t be surprised to see Crowder getting reps outside as the primary backup at all 3 WR spots.

 

 I think we’re underestimating Knox as well . He could easily steal targets at every spot. He’s got the athleticism to play all over the lineup like the top TEs do. Knox could easily see 100+ targets next year.

[NewEra]

Thanks for putting this together.  Well done as always.  
 

That said. I don’t think there’s any chance Mckenzie gets cut.  He’s an important part of this culture and this locker room.  From what I’ve read about his play so far in camp, he looks much improved as a route runner and finding spots in the zone. 
 

i think shakir is a lock to make the team.

 

I think crowder is a lock to make the team….as long as he’s healthy enough to earn his spot.  I think his health will determine whether or not he makes the team.  Right now, he’s missed 3 practices because he’s “sore”
 

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Honest question. Why is Shakir destined to be a slot WR? He is 6'0" and I just watched his Boise St highlights. He lined up outside in most of them. Seems to me with Crowder, McKenzie, and Austin ( my top 3) he has little chance to play slot. Yet he might get some reps backing up Davis (just like Davis did last year with Sanders). 

[SCBills]

I voted for all 3 make the roster.

 

McKenzie, as of right now, is my pick for Day 1 starter.  

 

Crowder could win it, but he's behind right now and McKenzie finally has his chance to cement a long term role on this team.  I think this has to be the chance he's been waiting for, and from the early reports, he's up for it.  

 

Shakir, if he continues impressing, likely rotates in all over the formation.  

[Big Turk]

I think you are missing the fact the Bills are not pegging Shakir as a "slot" guy and believe he can play outside.

[Freddie's Dead]

How quickly they forget.  McKittrick beat the Cheats nearly single handedly on 12/26/21 when the AFC East was up for grabs.  11 catches, 125 yards, 1 TD, and FD after FD after FD.  He also had the huge game in Miami in 2020.  All this guy does is make plays and produce, every single time he's called upon.  I can't see any scenario where he gets cut, unless he drops every pass in TC, and even then, I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt.  Surprise cut?  No.

Edited July 29, 2022 by Freddie's Dead

[Rico]

Depends on if you feel you can de-program all of the losing out of the ex-Jet scrub.

[Alphadawg7]

8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think all 3 make it. I don't have Crowder as a lock yet. He needs to get healthy and get on the field. But Isaiah has not only been getting the 1st team reps he has had a great week per Sal C and Joe B. Both have commented on improved route running and safe hands. And I think Josh trusts him. And Brandon Beane isn't trading away Josh's guys. 

 

Sal said last night he thinks Isaiah is a lock and I agree totally. 

 

Who do you see as the primary kick returner?  

 

If you think Tavon or Stevenson is going to win the job for example, then you are now at 4 slot players essentially in your WR group with Crowder, McKenzie, and Shakir.  

 

Not impossible by any means, just find it hard to believe they would go that heavy at a position that is likely going to be slightly less of a focal point this year than the Beasley years.  

[MasterStrategist]

2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Who do you see as the primary kick returner?  

 

If you think Tavon or Stevenson is going to win the job for example, then you are now at 4 slot players essentially in your WR group with Crowder, McKenzie, and Shakir.  

 

Not impossible by any means, just find it hard to believe they would go that heavy at a position that is likely going to be slightly less of a focal point this year than the Beasley years.  

I don't think Shakir is "slot only", he is versatile enough and could very well be our top backup outside.

 

I personally think they will bring Shakir along slow.  That being said, I'd expect the following: Diggs, Davis, McKenzie, Crowder, Shakir, Stevenson and Hodgins.

[Alphadawg7]

8 minutes ago, Freddie's Dead said:

How quickly they forget.  McKittrick beat the Cheats nearly single handedly on 12/26/21 when the AFC East was up for grabs.  11 catches, 125 yards, 1 TD, and FD after FD after FD.  He also had the huge game in Miami in 2020.  all this guy does is make plays and produce, every single time he's called upon.  I can't see any scenario where he gets cut, unless he drops every pass in TC, and even then, I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt.  Surprise cut?  No.

 

No disrespect, but he has never totaled more than 283 yards in a season.  I like him too, but the coaching staff for what ever reason hasn't felt as passionately as you about getting him on the field.  For example, despite his big game against NE, he only had 9 catches for 53 yards the rest of the 2021 season and even was a healthy scratch one game.  I am not slamming him, just pointing out the our coaches have just not gotten him on the field in any regular capacity for some reason.  

[jwhit34]

Allen averaged 38 pass attempts/game last year, over 2 years the average is 37. Let's go with 38. How would those be divided up this year? Possible scenario:

 

Diggs 10

Davis   8

Slot WR 7

Knox/TE 6

Cook/RB 6

Other WR 1

 

The slot WR could include WR4 in 4 wide sets. In this scenario the WRs get about 26 targets and TE and RBs get 12, roughly a 68/32% split. There will be plenty of passes to go around and you want the best receivers and we all know how McDermott loves the position flexibility guys. I think that holds true for WR too. 

 

While people are type casting Crowder, McKenzie, Shakir and Austin as slot guys, I think back to Gabe Davis' rookie year and how they talked about how he knew all the WR positions. With most of the WRs being in at least their 3rd year with the team, they know the offense and I think they move them around. Austin's a vet so he can pick that up and people are raving about Shakir, he can be brought along like they did Davis, if he picks things up faster all the better.

 

I think they keep the best 6 WRs and that will be Diggs, Davis, McKenzie, Crowder, Shakir and Austin. If the elect to keep 7 they make the call on whether Stevenson or Kumerow have a role or not. 

[Alphadawg7]

18 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Honest question. Why is Shakir destined to be a slot WR? He is 6'0" and I just watched his Boise St highlights. He lined up outside in most of them. Seems to me with Crowder, McKenzie, and Austin ( my top 3) he has little chance to play slot. Yet he might get some reps backing up Davis (just like Davis did last year with Sanders). 

 

I think Shakir is primary seen as being the heir apparent at the slot role here, but I do agree he can play outside too.  But he is viewed to be at his best out of the slot and I think that will be how we use him the most.  

 

That being said, we don't have anyone great behind Diggs and Davis, so I think there is an opportunity for him to get extra snaps/targets filing in some outside behind Diggs and Davis this year.