Big Game Josh vs 1:00 pm Josh

[CorkScrewHill]

I don't believe I have seen this on the board, but I did a quick review of Josh during 1:00 pm games and those outside the 1:00 pm Sunday slot and it is a significant difference.

 

1 pm games (12) - 61.8% completion, 23 TD, 11 Int, 86.85 passer rating

Non-1pm games (7 includes playoffs) - 69.6 completion, 22 TD, 4 INt, 116.67 passer rating - would have been higher without the cyclone game against the Pats

 

Other interesting notes:

1) Of the 7 non 1 pm games 5 were on the road and all 7 opponents were considered possible playoff contenders.

2) The team only went 3 - 4 in these non 1pm games in spite of Josh's play.

 

[Rocky Landing]

It probably feels weird listening to Frank Sinatra at noon on a Sunday.

[GoBills808]

Home weather imo 

 

Specifically wind

[Bruffalo]

Some of this could just be more focused preparation and practice for higher quality opponents.

 

Coaches will never admit it but there's no way they're putting in equal levels of prep for the bottom tier teams on the schedule (I know, I know, any given Sunday...).

[gobills404]

I didn’t notice the time slots but I did notice that he almost always plays his best in “big games” against good teams.

[Greg S]

2 minutes ago, gobills404 said:

I didn’t notice the time slots but I did notice that he almost always plays his best in “big games” against good teams.

 

He destroys the Dolphins and they suck. Even if they have a good team they still suck.

[MPL]

Dude was also more clutch last year than he gets credit for. There was a significant lift in his passer rating in the 4th Quarter.

 

Josh Allen Passer Rating by Quarter
1st: 92.3
2nd: 88.9
3rd: 75.8
4th: 117.1

 

Allen and Brady were also tied for the most touchdowns thrown on 3rd and 4th down last year, with 18 each. You can crunch those numbers here https://www.footballdb.com/statistics/nfl/player-splits/passing/third-down/2021?sort=passtds. 

 

Edited July 21, 2022 by MPL
had the wrong number.

[Augie]

Josh loves Prime Time, and Prime Time loves Josh. He’s gonna get a LOT of chances to work on his big game stats this year. 

 

I admit my internal football clock likes games at 1:00pm on Sundays, but any game we win is a great game! 

[HOUSE]

HOW ABOUT DOME GAMES ??

(cough, cough )

[aristocrat]

1 hour ago, CorkScrewHill said:

I don't believe I have seen this on the board, but I did a quick review of Josh during 1:00 pm games and those outside the 1:00 pm Sunday slot and it is a significant difference.

 

1 pm games (12) - 61.8% completion, 23 TD, 11 Int, 86.85 passer rating

Non-1pm games (7 includes playoffs) - 69.6 completion, 22 TD, 4 INt, 116.67 passer rating - would have been higher without the cyclone game against the Pats

 

Other interesting notes:

1) Of the 7 non 1 pm games 5 were on the road and all 7 opponents were considered possible playoff contenders.

2) The team only went 3 - 4 in these non 1pm games in spite of Josh's play.

 

defense gotta figure out how to play the top offenses

[TheBrownBear]

Well that settles it.  Case Keenum is our new 1:00PM starting quarterback.

[buffblue]

1 hour ago, Greg S said:

 

He destroys the Dolphins and they suck. Even if they have a good team they still suck.

Not last year, but yes I like my chances with Josh against the Fins...or anyone for that matter 

[golfball323]

Any season ticket holder will tell you that the last two years have been dogs*** in terms of home game weather. We're lucky to have a guy that will even attempt a pass in some of these games. 

 

Its hilarious to watch opposing QBs and kickers try to figure out the winds in the stadium.

[chris heff]

15 hours ago, HOUSE said:

HOW ABOUT DOME GAMES ??

(cough, cough )

Is the new stadium going to be a dome? Has anyone thought about this or discussed it?

[ganesh]

16 hours ago, MPL said:

Dude was also more clutch last year than he gets credit for. There was a significant lift in his passer rating in the 4th Quarter.

 

Josh Allen Passer Rating by Quarter
1st: 92.3
2nd: 88.9
3rd: 75.8
4th: 117.1

 

Allen and Brady were also tied for the most touchdowns thrown on 3rd and 4th down last year, with 18 each. You can crunch those numbers here https://www.footballdb.com/statistics/nfl/player-splits/passing/third-down/2021?sort=passtds. 

 

The problem last year was the inconsistent QB play in the belly of the schedule.  He was hot one week only to follow it with a cold week.

[Shaw66]

16 hours ago, aristocrat said:

defense gotta figure out how to play the top offenses

Great comment!   It's impossible to look back at the Chiefs game and conclude anything other than the defense lost the game.  And, as you look back on other troubling losses, it's often the same conclusion.

 

I have enormous confidence in McDermott, and I've said this before:   This point, about the defense making plays in crunch time, is not lost on McDermott.  We can be sure that he has made that problem a point of emphasis since January.   

 

I don't know exactly how to solve that problem - McDermott isn't going to want to change their overall style of play.   What I think he's been doing is challenging Frazier and others to figure out the strategies that work for other teams - watch film of teams that have had good shut-down fourth quarter performances and figure out what they do that the Bills don't do.  For example, I remember watching a Pats game several years ago, Pats were driving for the tying or go-ahead score.  They got into the red zone, and for the first time all game, on a few plays, the defense doubled Gronk by putting two guys on the line of scrimmage and simply not letting him get into any pattern.  The defense had that strategy in the game plan and didn't use it until the game was on the line - if they'd shown it earlier, by the fourth quarter McDaniel and Brady would have had an answer. 

 

I think the Bills understand that they have to develop that kind of tactical excellence so that they can get stops, if not on every play, at least enough to slow down drives.  In the 13 seconds, for example, I had the feeling that Mahomes knew exactly what he was looking at.  No surprises.  Reid may have had a play in his back pocket, but Frazier didn't.  I expect McDermott has been pushing Frazier to develop a higher level of preparedness for the fourth quarter.  

[mrags]

44 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Great comment!   It's impossible to look back at the Chiefs game and conclude anything other than the defense lost the game.  And, as you look back on other troubling losses, it's often the same conclusion.

 

I have enormous confidence in McDermott, and I've said this before:   This point, about the defense making plays in crunch time, is not lost on McDermott.  We can be sure that he has made that problem a point of emphasis since January.   

 

I don't know exactly how to solve that problem - McDermott isn't going to want to change their overall style of play.   What I think he's been doing is challenging Frazier and others to figure out the strategies that work for other teams - watch film of teams that have had good shut-down fourth quarter performances and figure out what they do that the Bills don't do.  For example, I remember watching a Pats game several years ago, Pats were driving for the tying or go-ahead score.  They got into the red zone, and for the first time all game, on a few plays, the defense doubled Gronk by putting two guys on the line of scrimmage and simply not letting him get into any pattern.  The defense had that strategy in the game plan and didn't use it until the game was on the line - if they'd shown it earlier, by the fourth quarter McDaniel and Brady would have had an answer. 

 

I think the Bills understand that they have to develop that kind of tactical excellence so that they can get stops, if not on every play, at least enough to slow down drives.  In the 13 seconds, for example, I had the feeling that Mahomes knew exactly what he was looking at.  No surprises.  Reid may have had a play in his back pocket, but Frazier didn't.  I expect McDermott has been pushing Frazier to develop a higher level of preparedness for the fourth quarter.  

There was a surprise alright. A prevent defense giving the WRs a 10-15 yard cushion while playing the sidelines when the offense had 3 timeouts left. It was just a surprise to Mahomes, it was a blessing for him. He couldn’t have been any happier. 
 

huge disappointment in defensive strategy at the end of that game. I know it’s been talked about but just annoys me more and more when someone brings it up. We should be planning our Opening day banner unveiling celebration right now. 

[Shaw66]

15 minutes ago, mrags said:

There was a surprise alright. A prevent defense giving the WRs a 10-15 yard cushion while playing the sidelines when the offense had 3 timeouts left. It was just a surprise to Mahomes, it was a blessing for him. He couldn’t have been any happier. 
 

huge disappointment in defensive strategy at the end of that game. I know it’s been talked about but just annoys me more and more when someone brings it up. We should be planning our Opening day banner unveiling celebration right now. 

Hard to know what would have happened, but for a really good team, that was a monumental failure.  

 

I suppose one way to look at it is that if you get a lot of chances, you're going to have some of those.   I know the Patriots are really disappointed about their Super Bowl losses.  For them, it's easier to take, because they piled up their share of Super Bowl wins.   But the Bills losing to the Chiefs is on a par with the Seahawks losing in the Super Bowl.  And the Falcons.   

 

It's time for the Bills to begin balancing the scales a bit, and McDermott needs to prepare them. 

[Awwufelloff]

Last year had to be the worst year for weather at home games in Bills history, just brutal every single week...

[mrags]

4 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Hard to know what would have happened, but for a really good team, that was a monumental failure.  

 

I suppose one way to look at it is that if you get a lot of chances, you're going to have some of those.   I know the Patriots are really disappointed about their Super Bowl losses.  For them, it's easier to take, because they piled up their share of Super Bowl wins.   But the Bills losing to the Chiefs is on a par with the Seahawks losing in the Super Bowl.  And the Falcons.   

 

It's time for the Bills to begin balancing the scales a bit, and McDermott needs to prepare them. 

McDermott is 110% on the hook here. I get that players need to execute, but it was easily recognized that things were going badly while it was happening. McDermott needed to take a time out, get everyone settled and aware of the situation and devise a better game plan. KC had all the time in the world with timeouts considering they only needed about 40 yards for a legit FG try. I hope McD learned from this experience (like he did with the Hail Murray game) and is better prepared for it next time (like the Indy playoff game).