Taron Johnson on the outside.

[RyanC883]

6 hours ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Why do you assume this?  The Bills drafted Basham in the 2nd round last year, and he often did not suit up on game days in his rookie season.

 

that was a terrible pick last year.  

[Shaw66]

37 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

 

that was a terrible pick last year.  

Well, I think it's too early to tell if he was a terrible pick.   He came on a bit toward the end of the season, and his positional assignments seemed to be changing. The Bills seemed to be in the process of figuring out a whole for him where he can be really effective.  Frankly, that's what they doing with Rousseau, too.  

 

But, you're right, he didn't perform or contribute to the team in any way close to what the fans, and maybe the Bills, expected.  

 

He's a good example of what I was talking about.   The Bills didn't draft him to be on the bubble of making the roster.  And as a rookie he didn't show much more.  I mentioned Philips, third round pick who wasn't bad but was a disappointment.  If Basham doesn't make, he will be disappointment, and even more than Philips.   

 

There are expectations that come with draft round.   Elam, Cook, and Bernard.  Clear expectations for each.   Elam should start.  Cook should be a small-scale impact players by the middle of the season, and if he can do that and be a threat, then he has the opportunity to make more of it and become a full-time back.  And Bernard is going to play some position, the Bills will teach him the position and they'll see if guy can make himself a starter in that role.   

W

 

Later rounds, not so much.  In the later rounds, if you're drafted by a good team, your team essentially says to you, "Look.  You've got some things that say to us that you can contribute on our team.  We'll teach you some things about how our team works, and we want you keep working and make it work.   Whether you make it is mostly up to you.  Can you grow as football player to be a player we need?

 

The difference in the later rounds is that team doesn't have expectations so much as it has hopes.  

 

There are expectations for Bernard.  

[Don Otreply]

10 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

The Buffalo Bills do not put short armed corners outside. I don't know how many times we have had to have that conversation this off season. 

You forgot to add, “now go to your room” 😂

[Don Otreply]

6 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I've been saying something related to this for some time now.  I think people who scream "NO WAY!" aren't thinking about what Beane and McDermott and what the reality of the NFL is.  

 

I'm not sure what Johnson's future is, although I've speculated in the past not that it's at corner but at safety.   I think there's a good chance Poyer will be gone soon and the Bills will need a safety.  Johnson could be a candidate.  

 

When I say the reality of the NFL, what I mean is that the league is always changing, and what worked last season and two seasons ago may not work in 2022 and almost certainly no longer will work in 2023 and 2024.   So, everyone saying the Bills are a nickel team are describing the past and not necessarily the future.  It changes from year to year.  

 

The other tea leaf that people seem to ignore is that Beane doesn't draft players in the third round to be part-time players, spot substitutes, special teamers, or backups.   If Beane takes you in the third round, he and McDermott are expecting you to start, certainly by your second season and ideally in your first.   In their minds, Bernard is going to be on the field on a regular basis, again ideally, by the end of this season.  Yes, maybe he is a replacement for Milano, and maybe Beane is intending to trade Milano to make room for Bernard, but I doubt that.  

 

What I've speculated about is that we all know that McDermott loved his 4-3 in Carolina.  We also know that he played it with linebackers who looked more like the traditional 20th century NFL linebackers, albeit better pass defenders.  We also know that McDermott loves guys who can play multiple positions, or who at least play with skills that make him look like multiple-position player.   So, for example, Edmunds is linebacker who runs like a safety.  

 

Put all of that together, and I conclude that they drafted Bernard to be on the field.  He's too small to be an edge, and he's probably too slow to be a DB.  That tells me they drafted him to play linebacker in a regular rotation and as I said, I doubt they drafted him to replace Milano.  That makes me think that McDermott is looking at playing more straight 4-3 and less 4-2-5.  I think he's thinking that if he has two outside linebackers in the Milano-mold - quick fast and smart, he will have a more versatile defense than playing with just two linebackers.   Yes, Bernard can't cover the slot man as well as a good nickel can, but with three really fast linebackers the defense probably needs to commit a safety to the box less often, and that safety is free to cover the nickel.  And Bernard can blitz better than a good slot corner.   

 

And there is one more aspect of this.   The reports were that Bernard is one of those coach-on-the-field types.   Not to overstate it, but he's one of those genius types, who studies and understands the game at the level the coaches do, rather than the players.   He said something right after he was drafted about first learning his position, then learning all the other defensive positions, because he can't play football well without knowing what everyone is doing.  McDermott apparently has a close relationship with the Baylor coach and had been McDermott's ear about Bernard. That, too, tells me that McDermott has plans for Bernard that go beyond what most of us are assuming about the guy.  

 

So, my guess is that your take on this comes from the right place - there's a role for Bernard that will tend to deemphasize the importance of Johnson as the nickel back.  I agree with others that Johnson probably isn't a corner, but I think the Bills think that Johnson is the kind of guy they want on the field.   My guess is that he's a safety, and that gives Beane more flexibility to deal with Poyer.  But the Bills can't make that move until they get Bernard at least into camp and ideally through some games to be sure that he can allow Frazier and McDermott to play an ultra-small, ultra-quick three linebacker set instead of a 4-2.  In the meantime, Beane still can draw the line on Poyer if McDermott is telling him that whatever happens with Bernard, McDermott can live with Johnson or Hamlin at safety.  

 

I've said before that I'm expecting that Poyer is not getting a big deal from the Bills, and he may not be getting a deal at all.  

Hypothetically, sure, We shall see, 

[BarleyNY]

16 hours ago, billvernsays said:

I know Taron Johnson is one of the best Nickel corners in the NFL but with the surprise of drafting Terrell Bernard in the 3rd round, is it possible that McBeane are thinking they could move Taron Johnson outside and get a 3rd LB on the field? 
 

im thinking the answer is yes and that’s why the pick they made in round 3 makes sense.
 

If I’m right we’ll see if that was the thought process early as the 1st few games with no T White will provide much opportunity to roll out this personal grouping. 
 

No chance.  He’s depth at LB, which the Bills needed. 

[Shaw66]

10 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

Hypothetically, sure, We shall see, 

Absolutely.  

 

I cooked up this theory about the 4-3 and Bernard because my impression of McDermott is that he doesn't stand pat.   He's always moving on to something to make his team better.  I think this team will look different every year.   It's what I said about Basham.   Last season it looked like they working on, and having success at, a role that fits Basham's strengths.   You know they've trying to figure out how to take full advantage of McKenzie.   Point is, McDermott's not putting pegs in holes; he's shaping the holes for the pegs he has.  And he's reacting as the league changes from year to year.   

 

So, I come at it from point of view that the team's changing, and the skill sets of the acquired players tells something about how the team is changing.  Miller will change things, and that will affect Oliver.   Basham and Rousseau are working their ways into the league, and McDermott's adjusting for them.   McDermott's defense is shaped in part by Edmunds.   

 

So, when I ask the question, what about Bernard?, I get 4-3.   May be wholly off the wall, but McDermott is going to use him for something.  

[716er]

I've always had a feeling Johnson could be moved to safety when Poyer goes.

 

It would be similar to the career path Hyde had to becoming a safety. 

[nosejob]

15 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

No. They played the highest percentage of nickel D in the NFL and finished #1 overall.

 

Now they are just going to scrap that and go back to a base 4-3?

 

C'mon man...I know it's cool to come up with hypotheticals but this is about as far fetched as you can get 

 

Base nickel doesn't stop Henry, Taylor the Pats RB crew or any other big back. Taron Johnson cannot bring them down...and BTW that was 3 losses which ultimately prevented the no.1 seed and home games throughout.

 

They are going to have to be smart enough to play a 4-3 against teams they need to when they need to. Unfortunately, adapting week to week to specific opponents is not Frazier's strong suit. We are going to be in the same boat this year given our schedule of teams that are gonna try to stuff it down our throat and keep Allen off the field....Just like the "We gonna rush 4 and hope to get pressure" is a sign of another stuck in their ways coaching approach. I hate not being able to use Frazier and creative in the same sentence and sadly I don't think that'll change.

 

Not to go too far off topic, but not only do they need to adapt a 4-3 against heavy run teams, they need to play press man. more. I believe they can do it with Elam....and while their at it, why not try a 5-2-4. when Lorax was here he would slide in over the guard and was a huge upset for olines doing that. That's the perfect role for Boogie.

 

P.S for all the bashing Klein gets, he made more big plays than T.E.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

16 hours ago, billvernsays said:

I’m assuming they weren’t using a 3rd pick on a backup for Milano. 

 

So does that also mean in your view Cook will start over Singletary as if you're not drafting a 3rd rounder to be a backup, you certainly wouldn't draft a 2nd rounder to be a backup.

 

From everything I've read the long term plan may be to replace Milano with Bernard in 2 years.  Assuming the sign Edmunds in two more seasons Milano's contract gets pretty big, so if Bernard looks like the real deal, he then takes over as the starter and Milano is released.

 

Maybe if they are playing a run heavy team like Titans or Indy and their #1 QB is out, then maybe they go with three LB's, but that still has nothing to do with Johnson.  The only was Johnson moves outside would be if White isn't ready in September and they decide that either Jackson or Elam is no way ready to start, but that's not likely.  Or some injuries pile up, but even the a better chance they'd trade or sign a FA CB first.

 

The main reason most teams play 3 LB's in running situations is because they don't want to reply on their nickel CB to make tackles, but Johnson has proved to be strong in that area, so basically the Bills base defense is 5 in the secondary including Johnson as he provides above average support against the run.  So even if Johnson were to somehow move outside, very likely you'd still only see 2 LB's on field and 5 back.

 

Maybe in pre-season you may see three LB's on field often, but that means nothing come September.

[Don Otreply]

13 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Absolutely.  

 

I cooked up this theory about the 4-3 and Bernard because my impression of McDermott is that he doesn't stand pat.   He's always moving on to something to make his team better.  I think this team will look different every year.   It's what I said about Basham.   Last season it looked like they working on, and having success at, a role that fits Basham's strengths.   You know they've trying to figure out how to take full advantage of McKenzie.   Point is, McDermott's not putting pegs in holes; he's shaping the holes for the pegs he has.  And he's reacting as the league changes from year to year.   

 

So, I come at it from point of view that the team's changing, and the skill sets of the acquired players tells something about how the team is changing.  Miller will change things, and that will affect Oliver.   Basham and Rousseau are working their ways into the league, and McDermott's adjusting for them.   McDermott's defense is shaped in part by Edmunds.   

 

So, when I ask the question, what about Bernard?, I get 4-3.   May be wholly off the wall, but McDermott is going to use him for something.  

I too feel we will have a different look, I was thinking more on offense, with the changes in coaches and personnel, but there is no reason to stand pat on either O or D, as we know, you can’t stand pat because it allows one’s opponents to adapt to what your team does, so it would not surprise me to see McDermott make the changes you’re talking about. This up coming season imo is an opportunity for the Bills to be a special team in the league, and for more than a season or two, so to speak. 

[Simon Says]

17 hours ago, billvernsays said:

I know Taron Johnson is one of the best Nickel corners in the NFL but with the surprise of drafting Terrell Bernard in the 3rd round, is it possible that McBeane are thinking they could move Taron Johnson outside and get a 3rd LB on the field? 
 

im thinking the answer is yes and that’s why the pick they made in round 3 makes sense.
 

If I’m right we’ll see if that was the thought process early as the 1st few games with no T White will provide much opportunity to roll out this personal grouping. 
 

OMG. Taron is probabky a ProBowl candidate and Christian Benford ( not Terrell Bernard)probably wont make the 53.

Edited July 21, 2022 by Georgie

[nosejob]

6 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Nice argument, but you're wrong.  Until there are some fundamental changes in how the NFL operates, there are some things that remain the same.  One of those is that the way the salary cap and free agency and the cap are currently operated, it's impossible for any team to keep it's good starters year after year after year.   They're always coming and going.   Levy left.   The Bills probably can't keep Edmunds, Knox, Oliver, and Poyer.   It just isn't possible.   

 

The result is that the GM always has to be looking for starter-caliber players.  The lower you go in the draft, the less likely you are to find a starter-caliber player.   The cut-off seems to be the third round.  The measure of success for a third-round pick is "does he become a starter for us?"  If the answer is yes, you drafted well.  If the answer is no, you didn't.  Harrison Philips, for example.  Spencer Brown, for another.  Why is that the case?   Because you can't continually replenish your starters only in the first two rounds.  There are 22 starters, and if they start for you, on average, for six years, that means you need three new starters every year, and you can't get three starters out of two rounds of the draft.  

 

That's the reality in which Beane is operating, and although offense and defense evolves, that has been the reality since modern free agency began, and it shows no signs of changing.  

 

If you want to believe they drafted Bernard to be a role player, you're free to do so.   I seriously doubt it.  I think Beane drafted him to start, and it's McDermott's job to figure out how to start him, and how to start him sooner rather than later.   Just like it was McDermott's job to do it with Harrison Philips and Spencer Brown.  

He's gonna be Edmunds replacement next year.

[Shaw66]

2 minutes ago, nosejob said:

He's gonna be Edmunds replacement next year.

That too is possible, but I think less likely.   I don't think he's big enough to play the middle.   He's not likely to be able to cover the ground Edmunds can, and he doesn't have any bulk to plug runs.   Possible, because I gather the guy is really talented, but I doubt it. 

[nosejob]

6 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Based on simple observation.  Guys drafted in the third round either start eventually or are off the team, and that's pretty much true around league.  Although there are exceptions (there always are), you don't find third-round picks make a permanent place on anyone's team as special teams player, a role player, or a backup.   Of course, it happens, but when a third-round pick survives only by being in one of those lesser roles, he's viewed as a pick that didn't live up to what his team wanted.  

 

It takes a lot of things to start in the NFL, and one of the things it takes is a minimum level of talent.   All the teams are good at figuring out who has the talent (again, with exceptions - they're wrong about some players in the first rounds, and they're also wrong about guys in the later rounds).   The guys taken in the first round, and pretty much in the second round, are the guys that more or less all GMs agree have the talent to start in the NFL, and maybe even emerge as stars.   The third round is, generally speaking, where you're still likely to find enough talent to start. 

 

Read the draft scouting reports - usually the guys in the fourth round have some physical shortcomings that they're going to have to overcome if they want to be a starter.  This guy doesn't have elite speed, that guy is undersized, another guy is lacking quickness.   In the third round, the scouting reports say that this guy or that guy has physical skills that are adequate to start.  

 

Maybe you haven't noticed that, but it's pretty clear when you look.  

 

The Bills drafted Bernard to start.  

I agree, signed Fred Warner.

[1ManRaid]

17 hours ago, billvernsays said:

I know Taron Johnson is one of the best Nickel corners in the NFL but with the surprise of drafting Terrell Bernard in the 3rd round, is it possible that McBeane are thinking they could move Taron Johnson outside and get a 3rd LB on the field? 
 

im thinking the answer is yes and that’s why the pick they made in round 3 makes sense.
 

If I’m right we’ll see if that was the thought process early as the 1st few games with no T White will provide much opportunity to roll out this personal grouping. 
 

 

"I know Taron Johnson is one of the best Nickel corners in the NFL..."

 

STOP.  Yes, he is.  And we're a nickel defense.  Anything past that point that isn't "and that's why we shouldn't fix what ain't broke", makes about as much sense as "I know Josh Allen is one of the best QBs in the NFL, but I think trading for Case Keenum indicates we are going to move Allen to tight end or running back".

[JoPoy88]

2 minutes ago, 1ManRaid said:

 

"I know Taron Johnson is one of the best Nickel corners in the NFL..."

 

STOP.  Yes, he is.  And we're a nickel defense.  Anything past that point that isn't "and that's why we shouldn't fix what ain't broke", makes about as much sense as "I know Josh Allen is one of the best QBs in the NFL, but I think trading for Case Keenum indicates we are going to move Allen to tight end or running back".

ah but see if they DID constantly change defensive schemes and philosophies and player positions for no reason then these deranged off-season theories have a better shot at happening see?

[Einstein's Dog]

18 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Well, I think it's too early to tell if he was a terrible pick.   He came on a bit toward the end of the season, and his positional assignments seemed to be changing. The Bills seemed to be in the process of figuring out a whole for him where he can be really effective.  Frankly, that's what they doing with Rousseau, too.  

 

But, you're right, he didn't perform or contribute to the team in any way close to what the fans, and maybe the Bills, expected.  

 

He's a good example of what I was talking about.   The Bills didn't draft him to be on the bubble of making the roster.  And as a rookie he didn't show much more.  I mentioned Philips, third round pick who wasn't bad but was a disappointment.  If Basham doesn't make, he will be disappointment, and even more than Philips.   

 

There are expectations that come with draft round.   Elam, Cook, and Bernard.  Clear expectations for each.   Elam should start.  Cook should be a small-scale impact players by the middle of the season, and if he can do that and be a threat, then he has the opportunity to make more of it and become a full-time back.  And Bernard is going to play some position, the Bills will teach him the position and they'll see if guy can make himself a starter in that role.   

 

 

There are expectations for Bernard.  

A couple of comments.  First, it seems you try and use a definitive 3rd round cutoff, regardless of the talent in the year.  For instance, this past draft it seemed like the later rounds were lesser talentwise.  We traded a 4th to move up just a few spots, and the 4th we traded to Baltimore was used on a punter.

 

Basham has already allowed the Bills to not have to spend the $8-10M on a Butler/Addison/t Murphy type.  That savings was probably a large factor in having the finances to get Von Miller.  So, in my view, the Basham pick has already delivered some benefits.

 

I think you were already starting to realize your first 3 rounds must start rule doesn't seem to apply for Cook.  And if it doesn't apply for Cook (the 2nd round pick), it certainly does not need to apply to the 3rd  round pick.

[Shaw66]

15 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

A couple of comments.  First, it seems you try and use a definitive 3rd round cutoff, regardless of the talent in the year.  For instance, this past draft it seemed like the later rounds were lesser talentwise.  We traded a 4th to move up just a few spots, and the 4th we traded to Baltimore was used on a punter.

 

Basham has already allowed the Bills to not have to spend the $8-10M on a Butler/Addison/t Murphy type.  That savings was probably a large factor in having the finances to get Von Miller.  So, in my view, the Basham pick has already delivered some benefits.

 

I think you were already starting to realize your first 3 rounds must start rule doesn't seem to apply for Cook.  And if it doesn't apply for Cook (the 2nd round pick), it certainly does not need to apply to the 3rd  round pick.

Thanks for this.  

 

First, I tried a couple of times to say that there are no hard and fast rules about this.  I don't have some kind of third-round cutoff.   All I'm really saying is that I think around the end of the third round your expectations of the player change.   Up through the third round, if the guy doesn't become a regular contributor on offense or defense, he's a disappointment.   By the fifth round, for sure, if the guy doesn't become a regular contributor, he's just a guy who didn't work out.   

 

So, compare Stevenson to Cook.   Bills draft Stevenson, and I thought, "wow!, if he works out he'll be a great addition."   But I never counted on him.   I had hopes, but not expectations.   Cook is different.  Take a guy in the second round, I still know he might not make it, but if he doesn't, he's a blown pick.  If your team is going to be good, guys taken in the second round have to become regular contributors to the team's success.  You need some guys from the sixth and seventh round, too, but you know going in that not everyone from those later rounds will make.   Second round, man, we need you to do the things that make you special.  

 

And although I didn't bother to define it, by starter I didn't mean just the top 11.  I mean the guys we see on the field regularly.   So, for example, to begin the season the starting receivers were Diggs, Sanders, Beas, and Davis, even though the actual "starting" lineup had only three of them listed.   As I sort of said earlier, if you've got a regular third-down back, I think of him as a starter even though he, too isn't listed on the starting lineup.   Cook doesn't have to become the number 1 back to be a starter, in my mind.   He has to be a guy the Bills put on the field often enough that he is a primary weapon and not an afterthought.   

 

Interesting comments about Basham, and they are to the point.  If you're correct, that Basham helped the Bills figure out how to afford Miller (by being a guy they know they will put on the field regularly) then he's "a regular contributor to the team's success," which is what was expected from a second-round pick.  

 

Personally, I'm really excited about Cook.   I think he has a chip on his shoulder, and he brings more explosiveness than any back the Bills have.   Dorsey has been spending months figuring out how he's going to get the ball to him.  

[BarleyNY]

16 hours ago, nosejob said:

He's gonna be Edmunds replacement next year.

Next year he will be a LB already on the roster with a year’s experience in the system.  I predicted that they’d take a player like that this past draft (because it should have happened a year prior).  It helps whether or not they try to re-sign Edmunds as it gives the team at least a little negotiation leverage.

[Einstein's Dog]

35 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

 All I'm really saying is that I think around the end of the third round your expectations of the player change.   Up through the third round, if the guy doesn't become a regular contributor on offense or defense, he's a disappointment.   By the fifth round, for sure, if the guy doesn't become a regular contributor, he's just a guy who didn't work out.   

 

So, compare Stevenson to Cook.   Bills draft Stevenson, and I thought, "wow!, if he works out he'll be a great addition."   But I never counted on him.   I had hopes, but not expectations.   Cook is different.  Take a guy in the second round, I still know he might not make it, but if he doesn't, he's a blown pick.  If your team is going to be good, guys taken in the second round have to become regular contributors to the team's success.  You need some guys from the sixth and seventh round, too, but you know going in that not everyone from those later rounds will make.   Second round, man, we need you to do the things that make you special.  

 

 As I sort of said earlier, if you've got a regular third-down back, I think of him as a starter even though he, too isn't listed on the starting lineup.   Cook doesn't have to become the number 1 back to be a starter, in my mind.   He has to be a guy the Bills put on the field often enough that he is a primary weapon and not an afterthought.   

 

Interesting comments about Basham, and they are to the point.  If you're correct, that Basham helped the Bills figure out how to afford Miller (by being a guy they know they will put on the field regularly) then he's "a regular contributor to the team's success," which is what was expected from a second-round pick.  

 

Personally, I'm really excited about Cook.   I think he has a chip on his shoulder, and he brings more explosiveness than any back the Bills have.   Dorsey has been spending months figuring out how he's going to get the ball to him.  

I agree with you, expectations differ according to round.  But also the expectations may differ according to the draft talent.  Seems like the FO wasn't sold on the talent this year.  An RB in round 2 seems a bit of a luxury and they traded down a couple of times before finally doing it.  I lessened my expectations after seeing that.

 

It would be interesting to know what the expectations of this 3rd rounder are by the FO.  Good teams have lesser need for immediate starters.   And the Bills have stated several times they try to use the draft for the future.