Best Case/Worst Case AFC East

[Saxum]

5 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

Tearing out my front yard flower beds now for the Josh statue 👍

 

How did you have room for Chandler statue and memorial?

[FilthyBeast]

5 hours ago, ßookie_tech said:

One of my bad case scenario would be the D slipping a little. Poyer an Hyde lose that 1/2 step being 30+ years of age. Tre White doesn't come straight back from injury in full form. LB depth haunts us, if Milano misses a game and Boogie/Roussou/ don't take the next step. Not that I think this will happen, it's just my worst case scenario for the defense. 

 

It's not really a bad case scenario as much as reality with this defense probably not being nearly as good as they were last year for the simple fact the quality of QB's they are going to be playing this year vs last year when it was one rookie/backup/etc after another.

 

In fact I could see this being the worst 'statistical' season for this defense even if healthy and with a better pash rush in additions to reasons you mention and giving up a lot of garbage time stuff like we saw in 2020.

 

If the Bills do manage to field a top 5 - 10 defense again this year (statistically) it will be very impressive all things considered.

[corta765]

14 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

If they had any semblance of an offense last season they would’ve in the finale… the Bills punted I believe 8 times in the game. 

 

Agreed although to be honest Buffalo kinda seemed like just get to the end with the lead and advance without injury. Also the WR corp had some badddd drops that day from what I remember freezing in the stands haha.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

18 hours ago, Greg S said:

 

It's certainly possible both Poyer/Hyde show some decline. I just get the feeling that the Bills pass rush and run defense will be much better this year. Last year they were a paper tiger beating up on bad teams/QB's to get their " #1 ranking". I think they will be much better against good offenses this year. Beane addressed the LOS with more than just signing Von.

 

Yep - we just beat bad teams so badly that even DVOA weighting doesn't adjust it well enough.  7 - sub 250 yard games.  6 sub 15 first down games.  2 sub 10 first down games.  I mean the jets had 53 total yards.  

 

And the defense had 4 brutal games - Tennessee, Tampa, Indy, and KC in the playoffs.  1 takeaway in all 4 - all games over 350 yards, all games over 100 on the ground.  

[Andrew Son]

19 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

If they had any semblance of an offense last season they would’ve in the finale… the Bills punted I believe 8 times in the game. 

One of my favorite @ScottLaw crusades has to be how far the 2019 Bills were behind the Jets who set up Darnold for success surrounding him with impact players like Lev Bell, and of course difference makers like Mosley!  That was a fun offseason!

[Andrew Son]

15 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

My argument was the Jets and Bills were close in respective talent and that it would be close for 2nd in the division that year(behind the Patriots)… And they were close in talent…. I underestimated just how bad a coach Adam Gase is.

LOL, I seem to remember it being a little more dramatic that "they're close"...

[PromoTheRobot]

I'm going on the record: Pats finish last in the AFCE. In fact the 1st overall pick will be in play for them.

Edited July 21, 2022 by PromoTheRobot

[Success]

Anyone ever check the Pats boards?  The perception of Jones is radically different from what it is here or anywhere else.  I'd say most of their fans think he's going to be elite, and some even agree w/ Schrager that he could be a dark horse for MVP.

 

Regardless, he's pretty decent, and I'm inclined to think both Tua and Wilson will be capable QB's.  We aren't going to get the cakewalk of a division that the Pats got for 2 decades - which is kind of a bummer, but also a bit more fun. 

 

Barring anything unforeseen, I'd agree w/ most that the division should be ours fairly easily (I don't expect the team to buy into the hype like they did last year, which led to some lapses like the Jags game).  

 

Beyond that, I see a lot of close division games deciding the rest of the order.  I'd probably pick Miami #2, Pats #3 and Jets #4, but big improvement from the Jets would hardly surprise me.

 

[corta765]

33 minutes ago, Success said:

Anyone ever check the Pats boards?  The perception of Jones is radically different from what it is here or anywhere else.  I'd say most of their fans think he's going to be elite, and some even agree w/ Schrager that he could be a dark horse for MVP.

 

I mean I doubt we would be any different if year one with a rookie QB he got them to the playoffs with a bunch of really good games including some 45 pt games. They had Brady as their dude for two decades and Jones play is similar decision making wise. But so was Andy Dalton's and he plateaued as being Dalton who was pretty good but not elite. Ask Pat fans to take a look at his play from the 3 pass Bills game on and it doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. Many analysts I respect and read said that the last 5 games teams figured him out a bit and the Pats were not able to shield him which is why his play dropped. He also played three really good defenses vs BUF3x, IND, MIA which is a part of it too. Against the Jags they lit it up but again the Jags were not a great defense or team by any stretch.

 

So I guess what I am saying is I wouldn't be surprised if Jones improved this year, but I think he doesn't have the weapons either to move the dial enough the way some think he can or will nor does he have the physical tools to.

[Success]

28 minutes ago, corta765 said:

 

I mean I doubt we would be any different if year one with a rookie QB he got them to the playoffs with a bunch of really good games including some 45 pt games. They had Brady as their dude for two decades and Jones play is similar decision making wise. But so was Andy Dalton's and he plateaued as being Dalton who was pretty good but not elite. Ask Pat fans to take a look at his play from the 3 pass Bills game on and it doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. Many analysts I respect and read said that the last 5 games teams figured him out a bit and the Pats were not able to shield him which is why his play dropped. He also played three really good defenses vs BUF3x, IND, MIA which is a part of it too. Against the Jags they lit it up but again the Jags were not a great defense or team by any stretch.

 

So I guess what I am saying is I wouldn't be surprised if Jones improved this year, but I think he doesn't have the weapons either to move the dial enough the way some think he can or will nor does he have the physical tools to.

 

Good point about the perspective.  I remember talking myself into Edwards, Orton, Taylor...even Tuel.

 

I think Dalton is a pretty decent comparison.  Jones is a smart QB, but doesn't have the same physicality as most of the elite guys, and can't really improvise once things break down.  I see him as a dangerous opponent only as long as BB coaches there. Beyond that, I don't think they'll really contend w/ him.

 

[HOUSE]

Under Best Case Scenario

You have us running the table but still losing 3 games

 

This does not compute, If we run the table I want them all!

 

Geeez

[Charles Romes]

The schedule is absolutely brutal but somehow I think the team is just too good to not go at least 11-6 with the 3 seed. Yet 13-4 seems too much with how tough the schedule is. So it all boils down to only two possible numbers being in play: 12-5 and the 1 seed, or 11-6 and the 3. 

[ganesh]

It is funny how the OP has put the onus on all the teams for why they will be great or worse (full control of their destiny).  However, for the Bills, he has made the worst case scenario be dependent on another team (Miami).... If the Bills do their thing (like the other teams, they should be winning the division irrespective of how Miami does)

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

On 7/20/2022 at 11:59 AM, NewEra said:

Bills best case:  Becoming the greatest team in league history because the league has never seen a QB play as well as Josh Allen did in 2022.  Plus our defense is top notch.  

 

This.

 

Bills were on a 2007 level Patriots scoring differential pace before they hit that mid season stretch of poor play against the Jags, Colts and Patriots.

[John from Riverside]

On 7/20/2022 at 9:54 AM, Gugny said:

 

After the Bills win the Super Bowl, Josh will be more popular than Jesus.

 

I mean he’s pretty close to that popularity right now

[MafiaMio]

10 hours ago, Success said:

Anyone ever check the Pats boards?  The perception of Jones is radically different from what it is here or anywhere else.  I'd say most of their fans think he's going to be elite, and some even agree w/ Schrager that he could be a dark horse for MVP.

 

Regardless, he's pretty decent, and I'm inclined to think both Tua and Wilson will be capable QB's.  We aren't going to get the cakewalk of a division that the Pats got for 2 decades - which is kind of a bummer, but also a bit more fun. 

 

Barring anything unforeseen, I'd agree w/ most that the division should be ours fairly easily (I don't expect the team to buy into the hype like they did last year, which led to some lapses like the Jags game).  

 

Beyond that, I see a lot of close division games deciding the rest of the order.  I'd probably pick Miami #2, Pats #3 and Jets #4, but big improvement from the Jets would hardly surprise me.

 

Pats fans just aren't used to having a mid qb. They think because Mac Jones is kinda like Brady he's automatically gonna be Brady. They have no awareness of how hard it is to find an actual elite qb or to win a super bowl. Spoiled af.

 

Personally I think Mac Jones' ceiling is Tannehill or Jimmy G. Can fool you into thinking your qb is good enough if the rest of the team is elite, but you're really just prolonging your agony about whether he's good enough to win your team a championship. 

Edited July 22, 2022 by MafiaMio

[The Dean]

I'm thinking the Bills best case for the AFC East is 8-0

 

The worst case is probably 2-6 or maybe 3-5.  But I don't see that happening this year, without serious injury issues.

[Ga boy]

On 7/20/2022 at 2:01 PM, Chandler#81 said:

😳 That’s John Lennon territory there, Gug. 
Now Mississippians are gonna burn their Bills gear!

Aka Mississippers (can’t say what they sip)

[Kirby Jackson]

Best case: Sweep the division and finish 15-2

 

Worst case: Lose 2 divisional games and finish 11-6 (still win the division)

[Greg S]

5 hours ago, The Dean said:

I'm thinking the Bills best case for the AFC East is 8-0

 

The worst case is probably 2-6 or maybe 3-5.  But I don't see that happening this year, without serious injury issues.

 

6-0. Jets, Dolphins, Pats.