Best Case/Worst Case AFC East

[corta765]

We are ooooh so close to football coming back and this is my look at the AFC East to start best case scenario and worst for each teams season. Don't like it? Feel free to comment telling me I am wrong and mean names. Like it? Comment also haha.

 

Buffalo Bills

Best Case: The dream season finally happens as the Bills run the table to their first SB ever. Finishing 14-3 with the #1 seed the Bills beat the Chiefs at home in the divisional round, then the Ravens in the AFC title before vanquishing arch nemesis Tom Brady in the SB as Allen takes home both SB MVP and League MVP. Buffalo does not stop celebrating until the end of time and there is a Josh Allen statue on every lawn.

 

Worst Case: The Bills lose out on the division crown as the Dolphins improve with a dynamic offense and softer schedule to take the crown while the Bills offense is not as dynamic as expected as Cole Beasleys targets are not replaced and the defense is middling as Millers impact is not as expected and Tre White takes longer to come back. The Bills lose again in the division round on the road to the Chargers.

 

Likely Outcome: Bills win division and 1 seed and take fans hearts into their hand for better or worse come playoff time

 

Miami Dolphins

Best Case: The Dolphins offense clicks as Tua is able to get the ball to his playmakers so they can do their thing mixed with McDaniels offense maximizing player output and they win their first division crown in forever. In the playoffs they actually win a game before losing on the road to Baltimore. Tua proves doubters wrong as he proves he can at least be a solid starter when given weapons and protection.

 

Worst Case: Tua's limitations hold back the offense, McDaniels scheme doesn't gel well, and the defense can't bail out the offense as they fall to 7-10. With less draft ammunition then prior years, Miami is stuck in no mans land as they cannot move up in the draft to pick a QB of the future and are faced with Tua again or a free agent replacement.

 

Likely Outcome: The Phins overcome a rough start to finish 10-7, but Tua's play is only mildly improved forcing the same questions again as prior seasons.

 

New England Patriots

Best Case: Mac Jones takes a step forward in his development and is able to lead the Patriots to another wildcard spot in a tough AFC. The Patriots defense plays a tough bend not break style mixed with an opportunistic offense that can run the ball well enough while Jones can make enough plays to score enough points to get by as his TE's play a larger role. Basically 2021 again but Jones carries more of the load despite less help. In the playoffs they lose a tight wildcard game on the road to at least go out with more grace.

 

Worst Case: The Patriots roster is exposed with its lack of blue chip talent and Jones limitations are put on full display as he lacks competent coaching/play calling with McDaniels gone. The offense regresses as they cannot move the ball and the defense can only keep the Pats in games so much as NE fades badly in the back half on the way to a 5-12 season. Meanwhile BB announces his retirement leaving the Pats without any direction in the org while Josh McDaniels leads the Raiders to a 12-5 division title.

 

Likely Outcome: Mix of both as Jones does improve a bit while not enough to stop the Pats slipping back given the improvements in the AFC and division itself. Additionally they don't get the turnovers or breaks they got last year in games.

 

New York Jets

Best Case: Zach Wilson does a Joe Burrow lite improvement as the Jets get to 9-8 thanks to a more competent offense as Wilson makes some plays to show he may have some real starting talent. The defense with the return of Carl Lawson and additions of Jermaine Johnson & Sauce Gardner turn the Jets defense into a force that can keep them in games.

 

Worst Case: Wilson spins his tires as QB as he cannot take advantage of some of the improvements that are there and the offense continues to be a dud and the Jets again have a 4-13 season. The defense meanwhile is left to dry and the additions don't work out as they are passed all over. Saleh's tenure as coach is questioned and a rebuild of the rebuild looks again to be coming on the horizon.

 

Likely Outcome: The Jets take meaningful steps forward as they go 6-11 but are in the vast majority of their games with the defense showing some real teeth. The offense is able to do a little bit although questions still are asked of Wilson who improves but is uneven doing so.

[Chandler#81]

Tearing out my front yard flower beds now for the Josh statue 👍

[corta765]

6 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

Tearing out my front yard flower beds now for the Josh statue 👍

 

I have removed my neighbors flowers beside my own so they are prepared. Their face though didn't seem as excited as I thought when they saw me doing it

Edited July 20, 2022 by corta765

[ExiledInIllinois]

6 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

Tearing out my front yard flower beds now for the Josh statue 👍

Nice!

 

Nothing like religious statuary to grace a garden.  Stick a bird on his shoulder & have a lamb by his side like this dude has:

 

 

[Gugny]

4 minutes ago, ExiledInIllinois said:

Nice!

 

Nothing like religious statuary to grace a garden.  Stick a bird on his shoulder & have a lamb by his side like this dude has:

 

 

 

After the Bills win the Super Bowl, Josh will be more popular than Jesus.

 

[JerseyBills]

Miami scares me a bit. I know we've dominated them but they got some serious weaponry with Hill, Waddle and Gesecki. If McDaniels gets that run game clicking, making it easier on Tua, they can be a scary offense 

[Greg S]

31 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

Miami scares me a bit. I know we've dominated them but they got some serious weaponry with Hill, Waddle and Gesecki. If McDaniels gets that run game clicking, making it easier on Tua, they can be a scary offense 

 

Hill is going to be miserable going from Mahomes to Tua. Its like going from a Porsche to a tricycle.

[FilthyBeast]

1 hour ago, corta765 said:

We are ooooh so close to football coming back and this is my look at the AFC East to start best case scenario and worst for each teams season. Don't like it? Feel free to comment telling me I am wrong and mean names. Like it? Comment also haha.

 

Buffalo Bills

Best Case: The dream season finally happens as the Bills run the table to their first SB ever. Finishing 14-3 with the #1 seed the Bills beat the Chiefs at home in the divisional round, then the Ravens in the AFC title before vanquishing arch nemesis Tom Brady in the SB as Allen takes home both SB MVP and League MVP. Buffalo does not stop celebrating until the end of time and there is a Josh Allen statue on every lawn.

 

Worst Case: The Bills lose out on the division crown as the Dolphins improve with a dynamic offense and softer schedule to take the crown while the Bills offense is not as dynamic as expected as Cole Beasleys targets are not replaced and the defense is middling as Millers impact is not as expected and Tre White takes longer to come back. The Bills lose again in the division round on the road to the Chargers.

 

Likely Outcome: Bills win division and 1 seed and take fans hearts into their hand for better or worse come playoff time

 

Miami Dolphins

Best Case: The Dolphins offense clicks as Tua is able to get the ball to his playmakers so they can do their thing mixed with McDaniels offense maximizing player output and they win their first division crown in forever. In the playoffs they actually win a game before losing on the road to Baltimore. Tua proves doubters wrong as he proves he can at least be a solid starter when given weapons and protection.

 

Worst Case: Tua's limitations hold back the offense, McDaniels scheme doesn't gel well, and the defense can't bail out the offense as they fall to 7-10. With less draft ammunition then prior years, Miami is stuck in no mans land as they cannot move up in the draft to pick a QB of the future and are faced with Tua again or a free agent replacement.

 

Likely Outcome: The Phins overcome a rough start to finish 10-7, but Tua's play is only mildly improved forcing the same questions again as prior seasons.

 

New England Patriots

Best Case: Mac Jones takes a step forward in his development and is able to lead the Patriots to another wildcard spot in a tough AFC. The Patriots defense plays a tough bend not break style mixed with an opportunistic offense that can run the ball well enough while Jones can make enough plays to score enough points to get by as his TE's play a larger role. Basically 2021 again but Jones carries more of the load despite less help. In the playoffs they lose a tight wildcard game on the road to at least go out with more grace.

 

Worst Case: The Patriots roster is exposed with its lack of blue chip talent and Jones limitations are put on full display as he lacks competent coaching/play calling with McDaniels gone. The offense regresses as they cannot move the ball and the defense can only keep the Pats in games so much as NE fades badly in the back half on the way to a 5-12 season. Meanwhile BB announces his retirement leaving the Pats without any direction in the org while Josh McDaniels leads the Raiders to a 12-5 division title.

 

Likely Outcome: Mix of both as Jones does improve a bit while not enough to stop the Pats slipping back given the improvements in the AFC and division itself. Additionally they don't get the turnovers or breaks they got last year in games.

 

New York Jets

Best Case: Zach Wilson does a Joe Burrow lite improvement as the Jets get to 9-8 thanks to a more competent offense as Wilson makes some plays to show he may have some real starting talent. The defense with the return of Carl Lawson and additions of Jermaine Johnson & Sauce Gardner turn the Jets defense into a force that can keep them in games.

 

Worst Case: Wilson spins his tires as QB as he cannot take advantage of some of the improvements that are there and the offense continues to be a dud and the Jets again have a 4-13 season. The defense meanwhile is left to dry and the additions don't work out as they are passed all over. Saleh's tenure as coach is questioned and a rebuild of the rebuild looks again to be coming on the horizon.

 

Likely Outcome: The Jets take meaningful steps forward as they go 6-11 but are in the vast majority of their games with the defense showing some real teeth. The offense is able to do a little bit although questions still are asked of Wilson who improves but is uneven doing so.

 

Good post and agree for most part.

 

Bills aside, I think with the Dolphins if they can ever figure out the JA17 puzzle and at least split with the Bills they'll certainly have a real chance at the division and much more.

 

Patriots are really an enigma to me because their offseason wasn't nothing special on paper but if Mac Jones takes a big step they could be very good and truly resemble the Pats teams of years past and still think a lot of folks are discounting just how good Jones was last year as a rookie.

 

Jets I think are really the wildcard because they definitely added some potential big time talent in the draft, but probably still way too young to make any real noise even if they overachieve.

[corta765]

3 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

Patriots are really an enigma to me because their offseason wasn't nothing special on paper but if Mac Jones takes a big step they could be very good and truly resemble the Pats teams of years past and still think a lot of folks are discounting just how good Jones was last year as a rookie.

 

Jets I think are really the wildcard because they definitely added some potential big time talent in the draft, but probably still way too young to make any real noise even if they overachieve.

 

Jones is weird because I thought the kid was pretty decent, but there is 100% evidence that the end of the year he got exposed a bit as he was asked to do more. I think if Henry and Smith can actually play to their talent he can maximize that as Meyers and Bourne aren't bad targets. The bigger issue though is they just don't have a lot of elite talent especially compared to the rest of the AFC and how it stockpiled in the offseason. If the Pats were NFC I actually think they would be a wildcard team, but their schedule AFC wise is brutal.

 

Jets are a year away but I won't be surprised if they push Buffalo in one of the games finally.

[Chandler#81]

1 hour ago, Gugny said:

 

After the Bills win the Super Bowl, Josh will be more popular than Jesus.

 

😳 That’s John Lennon territory there, Gug. 
Now Mississippians are gonna burn their Bills gear!

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

7 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

Good post and agree for most part.

 

Bills aside, I think with the Dolphins if they can ever figure out the JA17 puzzle and at least split with the Bills they'll certainly have a real chance at the division and much more.

 

Patriots are really an enigma to me because their offseason wasn't nothing special on paper but if Mac Jones takes a big step they could be very good and truly resemble the Pats teams of years past and still think a lot of folks are discounting just how good Jones was last year as a rookie.

 

Jets I think are really the wildcard because they definitely added some potential big time talent in the draft, but probably still way too young to make any real noise even if they overachieve.

 

Fins spent some money and picks.  Waddle had a nice year for fantasy, but i didn't see much from him last year to really instill fear as majority of his usage was in RPO settings.  They added the best FA tackle, FA running back depth, kept both TEs.  I still see an offense that is less than the sum of its parts though especially with a new system.  As for the defense - there's no notable additions and they lose their coach in Flores.  They should maintain the same blitz heavy look - but if you look at their win/loss from a year ago, that defense feasted on trash QBs (much like buffalos)

 

I think the patriots will continue to play ball-control and keep jones in that 25ish pass attempts per game range.  Their defense will be what it always is - matchup dependent and pretty good against both run and pass.  I don't love their DBs and their pass rush still needs work even with Judon.

 

The Jets were so far away a year ago.  Alluring pieces at WR,RB,DB,DE are nice additions.  Brought in Tomlinson as a FA, get Lawson back from injury etc.  I still don't see enough in the defense to keep the other team from scoring.   I also think the oline there is still going to be pretty bad.  

[Greg S]

The Bills have such a big advantage at QB that I would be shocked if they don't win the division. Miami is probably the biggest threat but Tua will hold them back. If Wilson takes that next step ( See Josh Allen year 2) then they could be around .500 8-9 or 9-8 as a best case scenario. They are probably a year away from really challenging the Bills. The Pats just don't impress me with their roster. BB is finding out what life is like without #12. I wouldn't be surprised if the Pats finished last to be honest. Bottom line those three will be in a giant slap fight with one another while they all look up to the Bills.

Edited July 20, 2022 by Greg S

[Bookie Man]

One of my bad case scenario would be the D slipping a little. Poyer an Hyde lose that 1/2 step being 30+ years of age. Tre White doesn't come straight back from injury in full form. LB depth haunts us, if Milano misses a game and Boogie/Roussou/ don't take the next step. Not that I think this will happen, it's just my worst case scenario for the defense. 

[Greg S]

1 minute ago, ßookie_tech said:

One of my bad case scenario would be the D slipping a little. Poyer an Hyde lose that 1/2 step being 30+ years of age. Tre White doesn't come straight back from injury in full form. LB depth haunts us, if Milano misses a game and Boogie/Roussou/ don't take the next step. Not that I think this will happen, it's just my worst case scenario for the defense. 

 

It's certainly possible both Poyer/Hyde show some decline. I just get the feeling that the Bills pass rush and run defense will be much better this year. Last year they were a paper tiger beating up on bad teams/QB's to get their " #1 ranking". I think they will be much better against good offenses this year. Beane addressed the LOS with more than just signing Von.

[corta765]

12 minutes ago, Greg S said:

The Bills have such a big advantage at QB that I would be shocked if they don't win the division. Miami is probably the biggest threat but Tua will hold them back. If Wilson takes that next step ( See Josh Allen year 2) then they could be around .500 8-9 or 9-8 as a best case scenario. They are probably a year away from really challenging the Bills. The Pats just don't impress me with their roster. BB is finding out what life is like without #12. I wouldn't be surprised if the Pats finished last to be honest. Bottom line those three will be in a giant slap fight with one another while they all look up to the Bills.

 

The Bills advantage at QB is why I have their worst case as being a WC team. Realistically the division should be theirs even if they split Miami (who improves) just for the fact Josh is one of the top 2-3 players in the league.

[eball]

The worst case scenario for the Bills is Josh getting hurt.  That's really it.  If he stays healthy he's the best player in the division, at the most important position, and it's not even close.

 

[NewEra]

Bills best case:  Becoming the greatest team in league history because the league has never seen a QB play as well as Josh Allen did in 2022.  Plus our defense is top notch.  

[corta765]

29 minutes ago, eball said:

The worst case scenario for the Bills is Josh getting hurt.  That's really it.  If he stays healthy he's the best player in the division, at the most important position, and it's not even close.

 

Lol I was not bringing that juju around, you can delete your comment hahahah

[4merper4mer]

2 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

Miami scares me a bit. I know we've dominated them but they got some serious weaponry with Hill, Waddle and Gesecki. If McDaniels gets that run game clicking, making it easier on Tua, they can be a scary offense 

Miami scares me zero both short and long term.  Well, nothing is ever truly zero so not much.

 

My short terms divisional concerns are NE, NYJ….and those two could change, with Miami being a close third.

 

Long term it is NYJ, NE with Miami being a distant third.

 

I see the Bills as being in a strong position to win the division this year.  Anything can happen of course, but we have to be a pretty big favorite.  
 

Longer term the Jets seem to me to have finally turned the corner from an approach perspective.  They would benefit from Wilson panning out and among the other three QBs I think he has the best chance.  I think they will improve this year.  If they maintain their rational approach, next year could be a big leap.  

 

I can’t totally dismiss NE due to BB and his willingness to both game plan in a way counter to current trends and to cheat, but I don’t understand what they’re doing roster wise.  I can’t envision Jones at his peak ever being better than Allen, Burrow, Lamar, Watson??, Mahomes, Herbert, Carr or Wilson and other guys like Lawrence would have to bust to be in Jones territory.

 

Miami to me seems to be throwing darts yet again.  Superstar here, superhype there,   And Tua? His ceiling seems slightly higher than Jones’ but his floor is much lower than Jones’.  No way.

[corta765]

1 minute ago, 4merper4mer said:

Miami to me seems to be throwing darts yet again.  Superstar here, superhype there,   And Tua? His ceiling seems slightly higher than Jones’ but his floor is much lower than Jones’.  No way.

 

I think if Jones had MIami's weapons they would be real issue for the division. Jones is very accurate and makes fast decisions plus he is a bit bigger then Tua.