The McDermott-Allen Era

[NewEra]

3 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

And Reid's replacement won it in year 2 going from 4th in the Division to 1st and a SB win - with a second year QB and a back-up QB in the SB. Dungy's replacement won in Tampa the first year.  

McDermott needs to win in the next two years or they need to find someone that can.  They can not waste Allen's talent.  

Luckily, for Bills fans around the world,  you’re not the one that will decide this Ethan.  
 

If we don’t win a playoff game in the next 2 years, I hope he’s replaced.  It really just depends on how the losses play out.  Not winning a super bowl over the next two years is too general.  The details of how the games are lost matter.

[ToGoGo]

I want to introduce a concept called "Raising the Baseline". 

 

Basically, there are too many variables to guarantee a championship in the NFL. It's impossible to win it every year. This isn't the NBA. So what Beane does instead is raise the baseline talent level every offseason.

 

The "baseline level" required to win a championship is different every year. Some years you go up against 17-0 New England Patriots (the baseline is higher) and other years you go up against Rex Grossman Bears teams (the baseline is lower). Furthermore, you can't predict when an unexpected player goes on a Joe Flacco type run. Or on a more personal level, when a Black Swan level event happens like "13 seconds". 

 

So you need to start thinking in terms of 3-5 year blocks, instead of 1 year "Super Bowl or Bust". To what level do I need to raise my team's baseline so that it will be high enough to win a championship or two during this block? To use a numerical example, imagine the baseline for the next 5 Super Bowls looks like this:

 

8, 6, 6, 9, 7

 

The higher the number, the more difficult it is to win a championship that year and the lower the number, the easier it is. The average for those 5 years would be 7.2. That means that if I can get my team to a baseline level over 7.2 (in whatever way you want to quantify that in real-world terms), then I have a higher than average chance of winning a SB that year.

 

What happened in 2021 is that the Bills were performing at an extremely high level but ran into a Chiefs team playing at a 10 out of 10 level. We showed up and played 10 out of 10 also, but it just wasn't enough. That's a good example of how some years just don't go your way. However, there's a very high probability that if the Bills play at the same level or higher next year, they will not face a team that will play at the level the Chiefs played at last year. Thus, the Bills are more likely to win the Super Bowl. 

 

So rather than cry about it and start blaming/firing people like some fans want to do (lowering the Baseline), Beane went ahead and signed Von Miller and a bunch of improved FAs and dropped the deadweight. He raised the baseline of an already high baseline team. This is opposed to a loud portion of the fanbase that unconsciously wants to destroy our baseline. Don't ask why, that's a question for their therapist. 

 

In other words, by raising that Baseline our probability for winning the SB sometime over the next 3-5 years increased even higher. This means that there is a good chance we can win a SB with Allen playing at a lesser level but our competition also playing at a lower level. This is because the rest of the team's baseline has improved.

 

I hope this makes sense and I can draw a simple diagram that better visualizes this concept if somebody likes. But I believe this is how Beane intuitively thinks when improving this team. 

[Dr.Sack]

I like the OPs concept. I’d add ownership & front office to the mix. Either we are going to win a Super Bowl or not. It seems for the Bills organization they have decided that to win it all means being in the playoffs annually. The more playoff appearances the greater their chances. Trading picks or doing trades at the deadline, isn’t worth mortgaging the future. Playoff Caliber mindset, followed by Championship Caliber. On paper the Bills are legitimate challengers.

[RyanC883]

13 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Sean Payton and Drew Brees only REACHED one. One in 15 seasons together. Brees is sure fire HoFer. Payton will probably be a HoFer too. It is just not that simple. 

 

If the Bills keep losing playoff games in the fashion they did last January I am absolutely in the crowd that thinks you have to consider changing something. But if they lose close games to other good teams where there isn't those single identifiable coaching mistakes then they have to stay the course for my money at LEAST four more years. If Josh gets to that age 30 season, hasn't won one, and is then at the point where he likely starts agitating for a new deal (because that is the point at which there is no guaranteed money left) then I think the owners have to sit Josh down and ask him to be candid about whether the coaching is holding the team back. If he feels it is you make a change. 

 

the Saints had some drafting/GM issues I think.  
 

Also not sure Payton is a HOfer.  That one will be very close.  One SB with Brees in the NFC during that time is really subpar.  

2 hours ago, ToGoGo said:

I want to introduce a concept called "Raising the Baseline". 

 

Basically, there are too many variables to guarantee a championship in the NFL. It's impossible to win it every year. This isn't the NBA. So what Beane does instead is raise the baseline talent level every offseason.

 

The "baseline level" required to win a championship is different every year. Some years you go up against 17-0 New England Patriots (the baseline is higher) and other years you go up against Rex Grossman Bears teams (the baseline is lower). Furthermore, you can't predict when an unexpected player goes on a Joe Flacco type run. Or on a more personal level, when a Black Swan level event happens like "13 seconds". 

 

So you need to start thinking in terms of 3-5 year blocks, instead of 1 year "Super Bowl or Bust". To what level do I need to raise my team's baseline so that it will be high enough to win a championship or two during this block? To use a numerical example, imagine the baseline for the next 5 Super Bowls looks like this:

 

8, 6, 6, 9, 7

 

The higher the number, the more difficult it is to win a championship that year and the lower the number, the easier it is. The average for those 5 years would be 7.2. That means that if I can get my team to a baseline level over 7.2 (in whatever way you want to quantify that in real-world terms), then I have a higher than average chance of winning a SB that year.

 

What happened in 2021 is that the Bills were performing at an extremely high level but ran into a Chiefs team playing at a 10 out of 10 level. We showed up and played 10 out of 10 also, but it just wasn't enough. That's a good example of how some years just don't go your way. However, there's a very high probability that if the Bills play at the same level or higher next year, they will not face a team that will play at the level the Chiefs played at last year. Thus, the Bills are more likely to win the Super Bowl. 

 

So rather than cry about it and start blaming/firing people like some fans want to do (lowering the Baseline), Beane went ahead and signed Von Miller and a bunch of improved FAs and dropped the deadweight. He raised the baseline of an already high baseline team. This is opposed to a loud portion of the fanbase that unconsciously wants to destroy our baseline. Don't ask why, that's a question for their therapist. 

 

In other words, by raising that Baseline our probability for winning the SB sometime over the next 3-5 years increased even higher. This means that there is a good chance we can win a SB with Allen playing at a lesser level but our competition also playing at a lower level. This is because the rest of the team's baseline has improved.

 

I hope this makes sense and I can draw a simple diagram that better visualizes this concept if somebody likes. But I believe this is how Beane intuitively thinks when improving this team. 

 

this is a great analogy.  But sometimes raising the baseline involves coaching changes, I’m thinking more DC than HC here.  That said, I’m fine with seeing how Frazier adapts to having more aggressive players and facing harder teams this year 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, RyanC883 said:

 

the Saints had some drafting/GM issues I think.  
 

Also not sure Payton is a HOfer.  That one will be very close.  One SB with Brees in the NFC during that time is really subpar.  

 

I think Payton will be a HOFer. The narrative matters and his role in turning a down and out franchise around post Katrina and bringing hope and then a Lombardi to the city will get him in I believe. He will have to wait, but he will make it. The Saints have generally drafted well... if anything their issue was going a bit all in on some older guys after that Superbowl and then having a cap crunch for a couple of years. 

[FilthyBeast]

18 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

I agree that it depends on different factors but I think we have to keep perspective about those 13 seconds in KC.  

 

McD ended the drought and transformed the team into Super Bowl contenders.  All-in-all, last year was a good season.  We played well offensively and defensively and won 11 games during the regular season before crushing our nemesis, the Pats, in the playoffs and then losing - barely - to the Chiefs.

 

The Steelers have had only had 3 coaches during the past 50 years and won over 60% of their games during that time including 4 Super Bowls.  I'd love to see the Bills achieve that kind of stability and sustained success.  If I was a Pegula, I wouldn't be very tempted to replace the HC unless McD suffers a complete spiritual, emotional and psychological collapse.  

 

Like I've said before, the 'continuity' argument here is that all these HC's in Pitt all won a SB which granted them a longer leash. Cowher was the only exception and it took him many years to win a SB although he did get to one a lot earlier in his tenure but lost. I think overall the Steelers organization is a bit of an outlier compared to others in the NFL.

 

The main crux of my argument though is how long can you give McDermott if he proves the same failures over and over again in big games and can't win with JA17 entering his prime and performing at an elite level? At some point you have to realize it's time for a change if that scenario plays out as I suspect it may.

[NewEra]

5 hours ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

Like I've said before, the 'continuity' argument here is that all these HC's in Pitt all won a SB which granted them a longer leash. Cowher was the only exception and it took him many years to win a SB although he did get to one a lot earlier in his tenure but lost. I think overall the Steelers organization is a bit of an outlier compared to others in the NFL.

 

The main crux of my argument though is how long can you give McDermott if he proves the same failures over and over again in big games and can't win with JA17 entering his prime and performing at an elite level? At some point you have to realize it's time for a change if that scenario plays out as I suspect it may.

Its not something you can just answer in 2022.  You may think you can, but you’re wrong.  You have to factor in how the losses play out.  Period. In this specific scenario with Pegula, Beane and McD, there is no, “if he doesn’t win one in 2 years, he’s out”. That doesn’t exist.  There aren’t currently any numbers involved.  Play the games and see what happens.  Most likely will be reevaluated in 2 years.  The semi hating bipolar fans, may want him gone after this season if we don’t win, but he’ll stick.  You’ll complain.  Most people will call you an idiot and ready ourselves for next season.  
 

don’t make it more than it is

[The Wiz]

5 hours ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

Like I've said before, the 'continuity' argument here is that all these HC's in Pitt all won a SB which granted them a longer leash. Cowher was the only exception and it took him many years to win a SB although he did get to one a lot earlier in his tenure but lost. I think overall the Steelers organization is a bit of an outlier compared to others in the NFL.

 

The main crux of my argument though is how long can you give McDermott if he proves the same failures over and over again in big games and can't win with JA17 entering his prime and performing at an elite level? At some point you have to realize it's time for a change if that scenario plays out as I suspect it may.

Marvin Lewis was coach for 16 years with a barely .500 record (131-122) and was 0-7 in the playoffs he made it to (his last 3 years were playoff-less).  He was .627 in the 5 consecutive years they made the playoffs.   

 

I'm not saying this has any impact on what happens with McD if he doesn't win a championship in the next few years but the fact he has been to the playoffs 4/5 years compared to Lewis's 7/16, he's going to get a lot of leash unless there is a catastrophic collapse over the next few years.

 

 

 

And no, Bengals didn't have Josh Allen on their team before you make that part of the reason he should be fired if they don't win a championship.

Edited July 19, 2022 by The Wiz

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

I think the fans saying “The Bills are going to win it this year” or something similar are in denial about how bad the 13 seconds collapse was. There’s no reason for a Buffalo sports fan to ever be that confident, but I’m seeing a lot of it. I think 13sec is to blame. 

If the Bills win this year 13sec will be mostly forgiven (even though it shouldn’t bc then they could be going for a 3-peat in 2023) , so they’re just skipping to that feeling. 
 

The Sabres had double the odds to land McDavid than the Bills have to win the SB this year. Just to put it in perspective. What do you think their odds were with 13 seconds left?

[FilthyBeast]

19 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Marvin Lewis was coach for 16 years with a barely .500 record (131-122) and was 0-7 in the playoffs he made it to (his last 3 years were playoff-less).  He was .627 in the 5 consecutive years they made the playoffs.   

 

I'm not saying this has any impact on what happens with McD if he doesn't win a championship in the next few years but the fact he has been to the playoffs 4/5 years compared to Lewis's 7/16, he's going to get a lot of leash unless there is a catastrophic collapse over the next few years.

 

 

 

And no, Bengals didn't have Josh Allen on their team before you make that part of the reason he should be fired if they don't win a championship.

 

Marvin lewis was also an outlier example but that was also a dumpster fire organization for years before he came there.

 

But again, my point is that McD has what many NFL experts and fans believe is a top 3 QB, maybe QB1 overall and you're right the Bengals didn't.

 

So that's really the main reason why you have to find a coach that can do something different assuming McD can't win a championship with Allen. Never forget that JA17 had one of the best playoff performances in NFL history over a 2 game stretch and is one of the top rated postseason QB's of all time as of today heading into the 2022 campaign.

 

At some point fans just need to separate JA17 from McDermott, thank the latter for his contributions here and being key in turning things around and accept it's time to move on if that's what eventually needs to happen.

[FilthyBeast]

19 hours ago, NewEra said:

Its not something you can just answer in 2022.  You may think you can, but you’re wrong.  You have to factor in how the losses play out.  Period. In this specific scenario with Pegula, Beane and McD, there is no, “if he doesn’t win one in 2 years, he’s out”. That doesn’t exist.  There aren’t currently any numbers involved.  Play the games and see what happens.  Most likely will be reevaluated in 2 years.  The semi hating bipolar fans, may want him gone after this season if we don’t win, but he’ll stick.  You’ll complain.  Most people will call you an idiot and ready ourselves for next season.  
 

don’t make it more than it is

 

I don't think any of us really know what the Pegula's are thinking. Maybe they don't care what happened last year and don't care what happens in the near term like some speculate. Or privately they care very much and have already sent subtle messages throughout the organization in terms of what needs to happen this year.

 

The main issue is are Beane and McD seen as a package deal in that if there were any rumblings of dumping McD, would Beane be on board or stay loyal to McD since many believe he's the reason he came from Carolina to be the GM here.

 

The bottom line is success in the NFL is fleeting as all older Bills fans should know given the grim 17 year period between the 90's teams and the current one. And right now this team's window is open as wide as it may get since the 90's and you have to seize that opportunity even if it means rolling the dice with your HC and trying to find even a marginal upgrade to get over the hump. Maybe it never comes down to this which is best case scenario.

[NewEra]

17 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

I don't think any of us really know what the Pegula's are thinking. Maybe they don't care what happened last year and don't care what happens in the near term like some speculate. Or privately they care very much and have already sent subtle messages throughout the organization in terms of what needs to happen this year.

 

The main issue is are Beane and McD seen as a package deal in that if there were any rumblings of dumping McD, would Beane be on board or stay loyal to McD since many believe he's the reason he came from Carolina to be the GM here.

 

The bottom line is success in the NFL is fleeting as all older Bills fans should know given the grim 17 year period between the 90's teams and the current one. And right now this team's window is open as wide as it may get since the 90's and you have to seize that opportunity even if it means rolling the dice with your HC and trying to find even a marginal upgrade to get over the hump. Maybe it never comes down to this which is best case scenario.

No, none of us know.  I got my money on them not wanting to screw up a good thing and having hope that he’ll figure it out.  Based on everything I’ve already stated, I feel that a complete meltdown of a season, not one game, will have to occur for him to get fired after this season.  We’d likely have to miss the playoffs for that to occur.  

[eball]

28 minutes ago, NewEra said:

No, none of us know.  I got my money on them not wanting to screw up a good thing and having hope that he’ll figure it out.  Based on everything I’ve already stated, I feel that a complete meltdown of a season, not one game, will have to occur for him to get fired after this season.  We’d likely have to miss the playoffs for that to occur.  

 

I'll go on record that McDermott has a stupidly long rope as long as the Pegulas own the team.  Beane's is not quite as long; maybe an inch shorter.  The Pegulas love these guys and why shouldn't they?  Complete pros and family men who have built one of the best cultures in the league and selected/groomed another home run role model in Josh.  The only way these guys are being fired is if some sort of scandal comes up -- and that just ain't happening.

 

Now, if things gradually decline then eventually the situation changes, but who realistically and reasonably thinks that is likely to happen?