The McDermott-Allen Era

[billsfan89]

3 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

All things being equal, each of the NFL's 32 teams has a roughly 3% chance of winning the Super Bowl.  But things (players, coaches, injuries, etc) are not equal.  So maybe the best teams are up around 10%.  There is too much parity and uncertainty (what if Allen gets hurt?) to give any current NFL club much more than a 1-in-10 chance.

 

Brady is widely considered the GOAT as a player.  Belichick is considered by some the GOAT as a coach.  In their 19 years together, they won the Lombardi a remarkable 6 times.  And that's why I don't get the Super-Bowl-or-Bust crowd.  Even the greatest NFL dynasty ever only earned the Lombardi once every three tries.  While we have a great squad this year, the odds of the Bills winning the trophy this year are not in our favor.  

 

So I take a longer view.  If the Belichick-Brady era could produce 6 SB victories, how many can the McD-Allen era?   I'm hoping at least one and maybe more!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

But then you add Kurt Angle to the mix

 

 

[Mr. WEO]

3 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

All things being equal, each of the NFL's 32 teams has a roughly 3% chance of winning the Super Bowl.  But things (players, coaches, injuries, etc) are not equal.  So maybe the best teams are up around 10%.  There is too much parity and uncertainty (what if Allen gets hurt?) to give any current NFL club much more than a 1-in-10 chance.

 

Brady is widely considered the GOAT as a player.  Belichick is considered by some the GOAT as a coach.  In their 19 years together, they won the Lombardi a remarkable 6 times.  And that's why I don't get the Super-Bowl-or-Bust crowd.  Even the greatest NFL dynasty ever only earned the Lombardi once every three tries.  While we have a great squad this year, the odds of the Bills winning the trophy this year are not in our favor.  

 

So I take a longer view.  If the Belichick-Brady era could produce 6 SB victories, how many can the McD-Allen era?   I'm hoping at least one and maybe more!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Brady-Belichick had 3 rings in their first 4 seasons together...

 

Most odds makers have Bills as the SB favorites by about 13:2.  

 

[Greg S]

15 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Fixed it for you.

 

Coaches and players. No excuse for a breakdown with 13 seconds left and the Chiefs on their own 25. 

[NewEra]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Sean Payton and Drew Brees only REACHED one. One in 15 seasons together. Brees is sure fire HoFer. Payton will probably be a HoFer too. It is just not that simple. 

 

If the Bills keep losing playoff games in the fashion they did last January I am absolutely in the crowd that thinks you have to consider changing something. But if they lose close games to other good teams where there isn't those single identifiable coaching mistakes then they have to stay the course for my money at LEAST four more years. If Josh gets to that age 30 season, hasn't won one, and is then at the point where he likely starts agitating for a new deal (because that is the point at which there is no guaranteed money left) then I think the owners have to sit Josh down and ask him to be candid about whether the coaching is holding the team back. If he feels it is you make a change. 

But I read here that it was Levi’s fault.  He even admitted it!  
 

Are you calling him a liar?

 

end sarcasm.

 

depending on how the season ends, I think McD has at least this year and next year….. but if a great HC candidate becomes available…..this could be his last.  Payton?  And is Payton really that good?

[BuffaloBill]

3 hours ago, Gugny said:

 

If Josh hits 30 and the Bills haven't won a Lombardi, I'll be in the "this is never going to happen," camp.  And I will be pissed.

 

 

 

I have to agree with you.  To have any chance at the Lombardi you have to have a franchise QB. Yes, there have been some years where a pedestrian QB and a phenomenal team (typically with a monster defense) have won. The latter are rare.  JA is a once in a generation talent and hopefully the Bills take advantage of this while he is here.

[Nextmanup]

Rationalizing the losses away, ALREADY?

Come on man! 

 

That is so Buffalo sports.  

 

😂

[hondo in seattle]

19 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

Rationalizing the losses away, ALREADY?

Come on man! 

 

That is so Buffalo sports.  

 

😂

 

Not rationalizing...  Just being rational.  

 

The extremists in the Lombardi-or-Bust clique insist that McD should be fired if he doesn't win the SB this year.  But the chances of winning the SB in any given year are small, no matter who lines up under center and or how talented the overall roster is. 

 

Fortunately, one season doesn't define an era.  I'm interested in how many wins (regular season and playoff) McD and Josh will produce over the next 5, 10, 15 years together.    I wonder what others expect the McD/Allen era to look like.  And now many wins & trophies do they need to accumulate to call them a success?

 

 

[Gugny]

16 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Not rationalizing...  Just being rational.  

 

The extremists in the Lombardi-or-Bust clique insist that McD should be fired if he doesn't win the SB this year.  But the chances of winning the SB in any given year are small, no matter who lines up under center and or how talented the overall roster is. 

 

Fortunately, one season doesn't define an era.  I'm interested in how many wins (regular season and playoff) McD and Josh will produce over the next 5, 10, 15 years together.    I wonder what others expect the McD/Allen era to look like.  And now many wins & trophies do they need to accumulate to call them a success?

 

 

 

I would say one Lombardi will make it a successful era.

 

I am not in the Lombardi-or-Bust camp.  But I do agree with @ScottLawthat if the postseason run ends due to questionable (I'm being kind) coaching like it did last year, then we could be looking at a trend.  And if that's the case, then I'd say McDermott would - and should - be in trouble.

 

I personally don't think that will happen and I fully expect the McDermott/Allen era to be successful.

 

[smuvtalker]

4 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

All things being equal, each of the NFL's 32 teams has a roughly 3% chance of winning the Super Bowl.  But things (players, coaches, injuries, etc) are not equal.  So maybe the best teams are up around 10%.  There is too much parity and uncertainty (what if Allen gets hurt?) to give any current NFL club much more than a 1-in-10 chance.

 

Brady is widely considered the GOAT as a player.  Belichick is considered by some the GOAT as a coach.  In their 19 years together, they won the Lombardi a remarkable 6 times.  And that's why I don't get the Super-Bowl-or-Bust crowd.  Even the greatest NFL dynasty ever only earned the Lombardi once every three tries.  While we have a great squad this year, the odds of the Bills winning the trophy this year are not in our favor.  

 

So I take a longer view.  If the Belichick-Brady era could produce 6 SB victories, how many can the McD-Allen era?   I'm hoping at least one and maybe more!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Well said sir.  Well said.  

 

While I am in pretty much 100% agreement with basically everything you said, particularly regarding parity in the NFL, and so many other factors(including luck) coming into play for a team to win it all, I'd be lying if I said I didn't have the highest hopes I've ever had for our team this year, ever, and anything short of a Lombardi trophy would be considered a disappointment in my book.    This team is just friggin stacked, and we have, at least to me, the most dynamic, most talented quarterback in the league under center.  

[FilthyBeast]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

But I read here that it was Levi’s fault.  He even admitted it!  
 

Are you calling him a liar?

 

end sarcasm.

 

depending on how the season ends, I think McD has at least this year and next year….. but if a great HC candidate becomes available…..this could be his last.  Payton?  And is Payton really that good?

 

If Payton decides to come back next year there will likely be a bidding war for his services and many contenders that would dump their current HC in a heartbeat barring a SB win to get him (i.e. Cowboys/Mike McCarthy).

 

If McDermott flounders this year and proves he can't get this team over the top in the playoffs again then it makes too much sense to not want to upgrade and I've said many times this isn't the Bills of years past in which top tier candidates wouldn't even consider an interview with Buffalo, let alone the actual job. They would be lining up begging for it this time with a QB like Allen and the Pegulas know this.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

But I read here that it was Levi’s fault.  He even admitted it!  
 

Are you calling him a liar?

 

end sarcasm.

 

depending on how the season ends, I think McD has at least this year and next year….. but if a great HC candidate becomes available…..this could be his last.  Payton?  And is Payton really that good?

 

I think something incredible would have to happen for this to be McD's last year in Buffalo. They'd have to miss the playoffs I think. Payton is a very good coach but he has his share of playoff meltdowns too. 

[NewEra]

17 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

If Payton decides to come back next year there will likely be a bidding war for his services and many contenders that would dump their current HC in a heartbeat barring a SB win to get him (i.e. Cowboys/Mike McCarthy).

 

If McDermott flounders this year and proves he can't get this team over the top in the playoffs again then it makes too much sense to not want to upgrade and I've said many times this isn't the Bills of years past in which top tier candidates wouldn't even consider an interview with Buffalo, let alone the actual job. They would be lining up begging for it this time with a QB like Allen and the Pegulas know this.

I know your feelings already. 

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think something incredible would have to happen for this to be McD's last year in Buffalo. They'd have to miss the playoffs I think. Payton is a very good coach but he has his share of playoff meltdowns too. 

Agreed.

 

BUT, I think he could get the axe if we make the playoffs and get beaten badly in rd 1 or 2, like KC beat us in the AFCCG.  That loss was 💯 on the coaching staff.  This past years lost was a combination of a few things imo, coaching included.  

 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

 

BUT, I think he could get the axe if we make the playoffs and get beaten badly in rd 1 or 2, like KC beat us in the AFCCG.  That loss was 💯 on the coaching staff.  This past years lost was a combination of a few things imo, coaching included.  

 

 

I''d be surprised to be honest even in those circumstances. 

[NewEra]

11 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I''d be surprised to be honest even in those circumstances. 

I wouldn’t be happy about it, but I wouldn’t blame anyone.  He and his staff lost the AFCCG game in 2020.  Completely blew a game that we had no business losing last year.  If we get blown out in the first rd of the playoffs next year, I don’t see why anyone would be shocked.  Disappointed (if you love McD, like I do), is how I would likely feel. 

[GunnerBill]

42 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I wouldn’t be happy about it, but I wouldn’t blame anyone.  He and his staff lost the AFCCG game in 2020.  Completely blew a game that we had no business losing last year.  If we get blown out in the first rd of the playoffs next year, I don’t see why anyone would be shocked.  Disappointed (if you love McD, like I do), is how I would likely feel. 

 

I put the 2020 game way more on players than coaching. Way more. Coaching was a small fraction. 

[hondo in seattle]

3 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Again, this all depends on different factors…. An epic ***** up like last season where they give away a game and it’s more than fair to pose the question. 

 

I agree that it depends on different factors but I think we have to keep perspective about those 13 seconds in KC.  

 

McD ended the drought and transformed the team into Super Bowl contenders.  All-in-all, last year was a good season.  We played well offensively and defensively and won 11 games during the regular season before crushing our nemesis, the Pats, in the playoffs and then losing - barely - to the Chiefs.

 

The Steelers have had only had 3 coaches during the past 50 years and won over 60% of their games during that time including 4 Super Bowls.  I'd love to see the Bills achieve that kind of stability and sustained success.  If I was a Pegula, I wouldn't be very tempted to replace the HC unless McD suffers a complete spiritual, emotional and psychological collapse.  

 

Edited July 18, 2022 by hondo in seattle

[NewEra]

28 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

I agree that it depends on different factors but I think we have to keep perspective about those 13 seconds in KC.  

 

McD ended the drought and transformed the team into Super Bowl contenders.  All-in-all, last year was a good season.  We played well offensively and defensively and won 11 games during the regular season before crushing our nemesis, the Pats, in the playoffs and then losing - barely - to the Chiefs.

 

The Steelers have had only had 3 coaches during the past 50 years and won over 60% of their games during that time including 4 Super Bowls.  I'd love to see the Bills achieve that kind of stability and sustained success.  If I was a Pegula, I wouldn't be very tempted to replace the HC unless McD suffers a complete spiritual, emotional and psychological collapse.  

 

Fair points.  I like this thought process.  
 

Chuck Knoll won his first SB in his 6th season as a coach.  
 

Year 6 is approaching for McB.  
 

Terry and Kim.  What will they decide to do?  Based on their ineptitude with the Sabres, I think they would keep McD even if we suffer 2 more serious meltdowns in 22 and 23.  Maybe even 24,25,26
 

Andy Reid coached in Philly for 14 seasons.  His best year was, also his 6th.  He made it to the SB that year and coached another 8 seasons never reaching it again. 

[Dablitzkrieg]

Relax boys.  Josh is taking us to the promise land.  "Hear me out" "This is our year"

[Ethan in Cleveland]

8 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

All things being equal, each of the NFL's 32 teams has a roughly 3% chance of winning the Super Bowl.  But things (players, coaches, injuries, etc) are not equal.  So maybe the best teams are up around 10%.  There is too much parity and uncertainty (what if Allen gets hurt?) to give any current NFL club much more than a 1-in-10 chance.

 

Brady is widely considered the GOAT as a player.  Belichick is considered by some the GOAT as a coach.  In their 19 years together, they won the Lombardi a remarkable 6 times.  And that's why I don't get the Super-Bowl-or-Bust crowd.  Even the greatest NFL dynasty ever only earned the Lombardi once every three tries.  While we have a great squad this year, the odds of the Bills winning the trophy this year are not in our favor.  

 

So I take a longer view.  If the Belichick-Brady era could produce 6 SB victories, how many can the McD-Allen era?   I'm hoping at least one and maybe more!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I look at it the other way.  If no SB in the next two years with Allen, the Bills need a new coach.  Obviously I hope McD can win multiple Championships with Allen. But I remain a skeptic and 13 seconds did nothing to assuage my skepticism.  

[Ethan in Cleveland]

33 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Fair points.  I like this thought process.  
 

Chuck Knoll won his first SB in his 6th season as a coach.  
 

Year 6 is approaching for McB.  
 

Terry and Kim.  What will they decide to do?  Based on their ineptitude with the Sabres, I think they would keep McD even if we suffer 2 more serious meltdowns in 22 and 23.  Maybe even 24,25,26
 

Andy Reid coached in Philly for 14 seasons.  His best year was, also his 6th.  He made it to the SB that year and coached another 8 seasons never reaching it again. 

And Reid's replacement won it in year 2 going from 4th in the Division to 1st and a SB win - with a second year QB and a back-up QB in the SB. Dungy's replacement won in Tampa the first year.  

McDermott needs to win in the next two years or they need to find someone that can.  They can not waste Allen's talent.