The McDermott-Allen Era

[hondo in seattle]

All things being equal, each of the NFL's 32 teams has a roughly 3% chance of winning the Super Bowl.  But things (players, coaches, injuries, etc) are not equal.  So maybe the best teams are up around 10%.  There is too much parity and uncertainty (what if Allen gets hurt?) to give any current NFL club much more than a 1-in-10 chance.

 

Brady is widely considered the GOAT as a player.  Belichick is considered by some the GOAT as a coach.  In their 19 years together, they won the Lombardi a remarkable 6 times.  And that's why I don't get the Super-Bowl-or-Bust crowd.  Even the greatest NFL dynasty ever only earned the Lombardi once every three tries.  While we have a great squad this year, the odds of the Bills winning the trophy this year are not in our favor.  

 

So I take a longer view.  If the Belichick-Brady era could produce 6 SB victories, how many can the McD-Allen era?   I'm hoping at least one and maybe more!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

Sean Payton and Drew Brees only REACHED one. One in 15 seasons together. Brees is sure fire HoFer. Payton will probably be a HoFer too. It is just not that simple. 

 

If the Bills keep losing playoff games in the fashion they did last January I am absolutely in the crowd that thinks you have to consider changing something. But if they lose close games to other good teams where there isn't those single identifiable coaching mistakes then they have to stay the course for my money at LEAST four more years. If Josh gets to that age 30 season, hasn't won one, and is then at the point where he likely starts agitating for a new deal (because that is the point at which there is no guaranteed money left) then I think the owners have to sit Josh down and ask him to be candid about whether the coaching is holding the team back. If he feels it is you make a change. 

[Greg S]

While the AFC is loaded this year the Bills should still win the division although the Dolphins might challenge them. The west should beat itself up. The Ravens and Bengals will battle it out in the north but the Browns and Steelers are capable of handing either one of those teams a loss. That entire division is one strong rivalry and it doesn't matter who is playing who. The Colts will (should) win the south unless injuries play a factor. That could be said for every team in the league. If the Bills handle business they should have a good shot at the #1 seed. From there we will see how the playoffs play out. If they can play their playoff games in OP then I see a Super Bowl appearance for them this year. Hopefully a parade in Buffalo after that.

[Mango]

8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Sean Payton and Drew Brees only REACHED one. One in 15 seasons together. Brees is sure fire HoFer. Payton will probably be a HoFer too. It is just not that simple. 

 

If the Bills keep losing playoff games in the fashion they did last January I am absolutely in the crowd that thinks you have to consider changing something. But if they lose close games to other good teams where there isn't those single identifiable coaching mistakes then they have to stay the course for my money at LEAST four more years. If Josh gets to that age 30 season, hasn't won one, and is then at the point where he likely starts agitating for a new deal (because that is the point at which there is no guaranteed money left) then I think the owners have to sit Josh down and ask him to be candid about whether the coaching is holding the team back. If he feels it is you make a change. 

 

I have a spicy take on this. Since Brees/Payton only reached one SB, and the Saints were garbage during the Payton suspension, both cannot be HOF. I will concede either one, doesn't matter to me. Brees has prolific numbers, but also, the team was trash with Brees and without Payton.  But you absolutely cannot be a HOF QB/HC pairing and reach one Super Bowl AND have a .500 or worse record together. 

If one gets in, the other absolutely cannot. 

[Gugny]

16 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Sean Payton and Drew Brees only REACHED one. One in 15 seasons together. Brees is sure fire HoFer. Payton will probably be a HoFer too. It is just not that simple. 

 

If the Bills keep losing playoff games in the fashion they did last January I am absolutely in the crowd that thinks you have to consider changing something. But if they lose close games to other good teams where there isn't those single identifiable coaching mistakes then they have to stay the course for my money at LEAST four more years. If Josh gets to that age 30 season, hasn't won one, and is then at the point where he likely starts agitating for a new deal (because that is the point at which there is no guaranteed money left) then I think the owners have to sit Josh down and ask him to be candid about whether the coaching is holding the team back. If he feels it is you make a change. 

 

If Josh hits 30 and the Bills haven't won a Lombardi, I'll be in the "this is never going to happen," camp.  And I will be pissed.

 

[Greg S]

3 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

If Josh hits 30 and the Bills haven't won a Lombardi, I'll be in the "this is never going to happen," camp.  And I will be pissed.

 

 

Exactly. Just give me one. I want the Bills to win more of course but it would be a shame if they can't deliver at least one. The celebrating in WNY would be legendary if they did.

[Rigby]

I just want one Super Bowl win and if we can't get it with Allen, then I fear it may never happen. And yes I am dead serious.

Edited July 18, 2022 by Rigby

[GunnerBill]

16 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

I have a spicy take on this. Since Brees/Payton only reached one SB, and the Saints were garbage during the Payton suspension, both cannot be HOF. I will concede either one, doesn't matter to me. Brees has prolific numbers, but also, the team was trash with Brees and without Payton.  But you absolutely cannot be a HOF QB/HC pairing and reach one Super Bowl AND have a .500 or worse record together. 

If one gets in, the other absolutely cannot. 

 

By worse than .500 record you mean in playoffs, right? They are way over .500 regular season. When they were trash it wasn't so much about not having Payton... it was the defense had the worst 3 year stretch in NFL history. Drew Brees made the playoffs with the Saints every time his defense was ranked 28th or better. 

 

I understand the point that for a HOF coach and a HOF QB together for that long one Superbowl berth feels disappointing. It probably is. And I don't think Payton will get in straight away. Brees is a first ballot. Payton will wait a few years (coaches tend to anyway) especially because they will want to know he is done first of all. He likely isn't done and will coach somewhere else in due course. But I think they are both HOFers. 

18 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

If Josh hits 30 and the Bills haven't won a Lombardi, I'll be in the "this is never going to happen," camp.  And I will be pissed.

 

 

Glass half full as ever I see Gug....

[Gugny]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

Glass half full as ever I see Gug....

 

When Josh is 30, I'll be 55 and about 37 years into my tenure as a Bills fan.  I feel like I've been pretty patient!  😅

[Jauronimo]

27 minutes ago, Greg S said:

While the AFC is loaded this year the Bills should still win the division although the Dolphins might challenge them. The west should beat itself up. The Ravens and Bengals will battle it out in the north but the Browns and Steelers are capable of handing either one of those teams a loss. That entire division is one strong rivalry and it doesn't matter who is playing who. The Colts will (should) win the south unless injuries play a factor. That could be said for every team in the league. If the Bills handle business they should have a good shot at the #1 seed. From there we will see how the playoffs play out. If they can play their playoff games in OP then I see a Super Bowl appearance for them this year. Hopefully a parade in Buffalo after that.

I wouldn't write off Tennessee just yet even though I believe they got worse this offseason after trading away AJ Brown.  I am not high on Matt Ryan and I don't see the Colts being able to keep up with the high scoring offenses in the AFC.

 

Otherwise, I agree.  Buffalo has the easiest path to a division win in the AFC.  

[Mango]

10 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

By worse than .500 record you mean in playoffs, right? They are way over .500 regular season. When they were trash it wasn't so much about not having Payton... it was the defense had the worst 3 year stretch in NFL history. Drew Brees made the playoffs with the Saints every time his defense was ranked 28th or better. 

 

I understand the point that for a HOF coach and a HOF QB together for that long one Superbowl berth feels disappointing. It probably is. And I don't think Payton will get in straight away. Brees is a first ballot. Payton will wait a few years (coaches tend to anyway) especially because they will want to know he is done first of all. He likely isn't done and will coach somewhere else in due course. But I think they are both HOFers. 

 

Glass half full as ever I see Gug....

 

I wasn't talking about total W-L. I was talking winning season v. losing season. I was also lazy and just reciting info from the last time I had this discussion which was probably around 2018 when Payton/Brees had something like 7 winning seasons 5 losing and a .500 year. They are  9-5-1, which is honestly not hugely impressive for a HC/QB Combo. 

 

Having a quality defense is part of being a HC. I understand that Bounty gate  and said punishments were a thing. Participating in and/or getting busted for Bountygate is also part of being a HC.

[T master]

If you make a comparison of the Bills & the Steelers way of doing things i'll go with the Steelers as a way to keep the Bills competitive instead of the Bills past ways & give McD as much time as he needs to win one .

 

Stability once you find the right HC is a great thing for a franchise constant change is not, just look at what Andy Reid has done in his 2 HC ing jobs & then the Steelers again with their 3 HC's they both have been competitive teams and i feel that's due to finding the right HC & sticking with them .

 

Also i believe that McD is still learning he has only been a HC for a relatively short period of time & anyone in that position is going to make some mistakes but if they learn from it moving forward then it's all good & i believe McD is that guy !! 

[eball]

I’m not worried. Josh is a generational leader like MJ, Kobe, LeBron, etc. Sorry to mix sports but those players willed their teams to championships and I’m confident Josh will do the same. 

[FilthyBeast]

2 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

All things being equal, each of the NFL's 32 teams has a roughly 3% chance of winning the Super Bowl.  But things (players, coaches, injuries, etc) are not equal.  So maybe the best teams are up around 10%.  There is too much parity and uncertainty (what if Allen gets hurt?) to give any current NFL club much more than a 1-in-10 chance.

 

Brady is widely considered the GOAT as a player.  Belichick is considered by some the GOAT as a coach.  In their 19 years together, they won the Lombardi a remarkable 6 times.  And that's why I don't get the Super-Bowl-or-Bust crowd.  Even the greatest NFL dynasty ever only earned the Lombardi once every three tries.  While we have a great squad this year, the odds of the Bills winning the trophy this year are not in our favor.  

 

So I take a longer view.  If the Belichick-Brady era could produce 6 SB victories, how many can the McD-Allen era?   I'm hoping at least one and maybe more!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I agree with how difficult it is to win a championship and have pointed this out many times in light of the unprecedented hype in Western NY this offseason. But I think the point is you have to at least win SB before you give the proverbial benefit of the doubt and dismiss calls for a regime/coaching change.

 

Believe it or not there devout KC fans that believe Andy Reid should be fired/on the hot seat for only winning one championship the last four years with a superstar QB that may not even have peaked yet.

 

Doug Pederson was forced out of Philly despite leading the Eagles to their first SB win not too long ago with a backup QB.

 

But getting back to the issue at hand with McDermott/Allen, it's more on McD right now to prove he's in the same category as these other HC's and he has to get to/win a SB or it's more than legitimate to argue he doesn't deserve to nor should remain the Bills HC long term. But unfortunately his body of work says he probably isn't going to be the guy hear long term and may have to follow his mentors career path in terms of leading another franchise to the promised land.

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

I agree with how difficult it is to win a championship and have pointed this out many times in light of the unprecedented hype in Western NY this offseason. But I think the point is you have to at least win SB before you give the proverbial benefit of the doubt and dismiss calls for a regime/coaching change.

 

Believe it or not there devout KC fans that believe Andy Reid should be fired/on the hot seat for only winning one championship the last four years with a superstar QB that may not even have peaked yet.

 

Doug Pederson was forced out of Philly despite leading the Eagles to their first SB win not too long ago with a backup QB.

 

But getting back to the issue at hand with McDermott/Allen, it's more on McD right now to prove he's in the same category as these other HC's and he has to get to/win a SB or it's more than legitimate to argue he doesn't deserve to nor should remain the Bills HC long term. But unfortunately his body of work says he probably isn't going to be the guy hear long term and may have to follow his mentors career path in terms of leading another franchise to the promised land.

 

Pederson was not forced out for his coaching. He was forced out for his personality. 

[FilthyBeast]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Pederson was not forced out for his coaching. He was forced out for his personality. 

 

The point is the guy won a SB with a franchise and fanbase that was once in the Bills shoes in terms of wanting to get over that hump.

 

McD isn't going to get special treatment because he doesn't have a conflictive type personality, if anything his more reserved demeanor will be one of the reasons he's ultimately fired.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, FilthyBeast said:

 

The point is the guy won a SB with a franchise and fanbase that was once in the Bills shoes in terms of wanting to get over that hump.

 

McD isn't going to get special treatment because he doesn't have a conflictive type personality, if anything his more reserved demeanor will be one of the reasons he's ultimately fired.

 

It means that Pederson is not an example that proves your point. He got fired for rowing with ownership. No employee is safe when he starts cursing at his boss no matter what he has done or hasn't done in his job.

[hondo in seattle]

After living through the drought, and some prior 1-, 2-, and 3-win seasons, I'll be happy with this:  The McD/Allen combo give us multiple playoff games nearly every year and at least one SB win.

 

If McD and Allen don't deliver a Lombardi by the time they're done, then I think there's a good chance I'll pine away my remaining years - I'm in my 60s - without every experiencing the joy of witnessing a SB victory.  

[Greg S]

1 hour ago, eball said:

I’m not worried. Josh is a generational leader like MJ, Kobe, LeBron, etc. Sorry to mix sports but those players willed their teams to championships and I’m confident Josh will do the same. 

 

 A great player in the NBA can takeover a game and will his team to victory. In the NFL you rely more on a team effort. Josh willed his team to victory against the Chiefs but the Bills still lost but the defense blew it. 

Edited July 18, 2022 by Greg S

[mushypeaches]

I'm OK with living in the moment for this year.  I've spent a boatload of money on tickets & travel and want to experience every special moment.

 

Is this our best chance in 30 years to win one?  Absofreakinglutely

 

Am I going to worry about what needs to happen 3-5 years down the road if we don't get over the hump? 

 

Life's too short for that