Locked on Bills Podcast: A Case for Tremaine Edmunds

[LABILLBACKER]

14 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I agree with your analysis of the problem, but I'm not sure the Bills agree the negative outweighs the positive.   I've said over and over, I don't know if it does, and I don't there's any way for us to know, because there aren't any meaningful stats to measure the positives.  

 

But I agree that if he's valuable as I describe it, it still doesn't help when you're facing elite offenses.   I'm sure KC any longer is the example, but more or less wherever Hill is able to attack the weakness in the middle.  When it's Cooper Kupp and OBJ coming at you, they're going to attack that weakness.   If McDermott Frazier don't have that answer, then I agree that Edmunds' value is less. 

 

What I'm hoping is that Edmunds is just obviously better this season (although I don't know that would mean he's improved - playing MLB in this scheme will get easier if the Dline plays the way McDermott envisions it).  If that happens, the question becomes moot and the Bills will write a big check.  Beyond that, I expect that the Bills' pass defense in those game-end situations will be better because McDermott will create better solutions.  You know that problem number for the Bills' head coaches was "How do we succeed in those 13-second situations?  We must succeed."   And some of that solution will be how to tighten up the middle.  

Your absolutely right,  it's almost impossible to statistically quantify his space eating contribution. And I also agree he will probably have a slight uptick in performance this fall because of his contract year.  The organization will have a challenging decision after this season.  My gut still says to move on but I can appreciate the argument of those to keep him.  This may basically boil down to $?

[NewEra]

5 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Except it does matter… More often than not the better player/better chance of selecting a difference maker is in the 1st round… this regime has clearly prioritized defense over offense in those rounds.

 

And as I’ve said plenty of times, they are thin at outside WR and the offensive line is shaky…. So I don’t necessarily agree that they are good there. I do agree that pass rush was one of the biggest issues with the team and I’m glad they added a HOF talent like Von to address that…. Still think there will come several times this season where Josh will have to carry the offense and play Superman due to receiver and offensive line struggles.

You don’t say??!!

[TheWeatherMan]

38 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Your obsession is flattering 

Lies, the only thing that flatters you is the mirror.  You love you some you, that’s obvious.  

[Mat68]

On 7/3/2022 at 5:29 PM, HappyDays said:

 

I don't think Edmunds is that unique. He's an elite athlete who has struggled with the mental side of football. That's an entire genre of NFL player.

Who is 6-5 and plays mike at an above average to very good level?

[BillsFan130]

1 hour ago, Mat68 said:

Who is 6-5 and plays mike at an above average to very good level?

"Very good level"  is extremely subjective, and that's the polarizing thing about Edmunds.

 

I don't think he is anywhere close to "very good " and a lot of others feel the same way.

[Richard Noggin]

3 hours ago, Mat68 said:

Who is 6-5 and plays mike at an above average to very good level?

Josh Allen three years ago?

Edited July 5, 2022 by Richard Noggin

[Doc Brown]

14 hours ago, Pete said:

I would prioritize extending Knox, Oliver and Motor.  Sorry no cap room for you Edmunds

I'd pass on re-signing a RB.  Knox and Oliver should be priorities though.  Also, if Davis has a breakout year we'd be wise to extend him next year.  Even if we are able to do cap gymnastics, I'd rather use that money to pay a top free agent o-lineman to help keep Allen clean than re-sign Edmunds.

Edited July 5, 2022 by Doc Brown

[Putin]

13 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

I'd pass on re-signing a RB.  Knox and Oliver should be priorities though.  Also, if Davis has a breakout year we'd be wise to extend him next year.  Even if we are able to do cap gymnastics, I'd rather use that money to pay a top free agent o-lineman to help keep Allen clean than re-sign Edmunds.

Agree 100% 

[Saxum]

6 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

What I'm hoping is that Edmunds is just obviously better this season (although I don't know that would mean he's improved - playing MLB in this scheme will get easier if the Dline plays the way McDermott envisions it).  If that happens, the question becomes moot and the Bills will write a big check.  Beyond that, I expect that the Bills' pass defense in those game-end situations will be better because McDermott will create better solutions.  You know that problem number for the Bills' head coaches was "How do we succeed in those 13-second situations?  We must succeed."   And some of that solution will be how to tighten up the middle.  

 

Edmunds is NOT playing MLB actually - there are two LBs and he is covering a bigger area than a LB normally would cover but so is Milano.

This is a 4-2-5 defense not a 4-3-4 defense.

 

In fact I do not think you can look at what Edmunds does without looking at what Milano does. 

When either were out the defense changed and it took them time to do it when Milano was out for extended period.

Also part of why Edmunds can cover area he does is because 3rd CB Taron Johnson covers quite a bit of territory as well.

 

When you compare Edmunds to other LBs you need to consider role he is supposed to be doing.

 

[Shaw66]

52 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

 

Edmunds is NOT playing MLB actually - there are two LBs and he is covering a bigger area than a LB normally would cover but so is Milano.

This is a 4-2-5 defense not a 4-3-4 defense.

 

In fact I do not think you can look at what Edmunds does without looking at what Milano does. 

When either were out the defense changed and it took them time to do it when Milano was out for extended period.

Also part of why Edmunds can cover area he does is because 3rd CB Taron Johnson covers quite a bit of territory as well.

 

When you compare Edmunds to other LBs you need to consider role he is supposed to be doing.

 

I'm sure there's some truth in this, but I don't know how much.   Bills play a lot of different zones, but in several Johnson just drops like he's the third linebacker, I think, so at least in those cases, Edmunds a classic MLB in a 4-3 playing zone. When they're in Tampa 2, Edmunds drops deep, again the classic role.     When they're in man, Johnson and Milano are hooked up with receivers, and I think Edmunds is still a pretty classic MLB.   I'm not sure Johnson's presence changes Edmunds role all that much.  

 

But your point helps point that Edmunds' role is different, at least in the fact that Johnson does take on different assignments than if he were in the 4-3.   

 

I keep saying, look for more classic 4-3 this year with Bernard the third linebacker, and with Johnson playing some safety or relieving the second corner.   I think we're going to see some more funky stuff from the defense this year.   They have ideas about how they're going to use Bernard, ideas that we won't see until the season starts.  

Edited July 5, 2022 by Shaw66

[NewEra]

17 hours ago, TheWeatherMan said:

Lies, the only thing that flatters you is the mirror.  You love you some you, that’s obvious.  

Yes, I love me some me.  
 

If you don’t love you some you, you’ve got some work to do. 

[TheWeatherMan]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

Yes, I love me some me.  
 

If you don’t love you some you, you’ve got some work to do. 

But you love you the way Buffalo Bill would do and that’s just…..ew! 
 

Edited July 5, 2022 by TheWeatherMan

[NewEra]

5 minutes ago, TheWeatherMan said:

But you love you the way Buffalo Bill would do. 

and you’re still irrelevant.  

[TheWeatherMan]

Just now, NewEra said:

and you’re still irrelevant.  

And I’m guessing you are? You’re doing a great job proving me proving me right BTW.  

[NewEra]

6 minutes ago, TheWeatherMan said:

And I’m guessing you are? You’re doing a great job proving me proving me right BTW.  

Sorry, I should’ve been more specific.  
 

In my world, which is the world that I live, you and your thoughts are irrelevant.  

 

I would hope that you feel the same about myself and my thoughts…..but based on all of your reactions to my posts, I find that hard to believe.  If I were irrelevant, you wouldn’t waste your time.  
 

IIRC, I’ve never commented or posted a reaction to any of your posts that weren’t directed to me?  Why?  Irrelevant 

 

[SCBills]

13 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

I'd pass on re-signing a RB.  Knox and Oliver should be priorities though.  Also, if Davis has a breakout year we'd be wise to extend him next year.  Even if we are able to do cap gymnastics, I'd rather use that money to pay a top free agent o-lineman to help keep Allen clean than re-sign Edmunds.

 

The only caveat I'd say here is that if we don't re-sign Edmunds, chances are high that we use our RD1 pick on a LB.

 

Hopefully we're drafting at the back end of RD1, and that's a prime spot to snag a top tier Guard/Center prospect.  

 

I think we have a decent OL and nice weaponry around him this year, but I'd really like for the team to get him some high draft pick ammo next year.  

[TheWeatherMan]

23 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Sorry, I should’ve been more specific.  
 

In my world, which is the world that I live, you and your thoughts are irrelevant.  

 

I would hope that you feel the same about myself and my thoughts…..but based on all of your reactions to my posts, I find that hard to believe.  If I were irrelevant, you wouldn’t waste your time.  
 

IIRC, I’ve never commented or posted a reaction to any of your posts that weren’t directed to me?  Why?  Irrelevant 

 

You mean like this lengthy response about my previous post?  One could conclude that you deem my posts relevant because you respond to every one of them.  

[Shaw66]

13 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

I'd pass on re-signing a RB.  Knox and Oliver should be priorities though.  Also, if Davis has a breakout year we'd be wise to extend him next year.  Even if we are able to do cap gymnastics, I'd rather use that money to pay a top free agent o-lineman to help keep Allen clean than re-sign Edmunds.

It's just so hard to make those decisions.   I don't think either Oliver or Knox has shown himself to be a "must have" guy.   They're both nice fits and not easy to replace, but "nice fit and not easy to replace" includes several guys, most notably and top of mind, Poyer.   For me the question is whether the guy is must-have guy for the next six-to-eight years.  Those are the guys you pay whatever it takes.  Right now, Poyer,  Knox, and Oliver don't fit into that category.  

 

I always say tight end just isn't that important a position.   If you have a true stud, like Kelce or Kittle, okay, that's great, he becomes a core player and you do whatever it takes to keep him.   Anyone less than that, well, yes, if you've got a good one that's nice, but you always can plug that hole with someone if you lose him.   I think Knox is in the that category.  I recently watched his highlights, and I've got to say, he makes some really tough catches, and I like his mobility.  I just think that the Bills should break the bank on him only if he's essentially the number 2 receiver, behind Diggs, like Kelce as #2 behind Hill.   Knox isn't the #2 receiver yet. 

 

Oliver, nice player, but to be a core player and make the big bucks, he's got to be Kyle.  He hasn't shown that, and I doubt he will. 

 

So, for me, the question for Beane on those guys is simple:  Do I have enough money (cap room) to pay his market value?   If not, then the only way you keep those guys is if they are willing to take less than market value to stay with the Bills. 

 

If I had to guess, Knox will be willing to give some discount; I don't know about Oliver.   One thing that might help close the gap for Oliver is the return of Lawson and Phillips.   All three were on the roster together in 2019, and there's little doubt that the two returnees will be telling Oliver that they came back for things other than money.  Phillips and Lawson have each been paid between $20 and $30 million in their careers, and Lawson for sure took less money to come back to Buffalo than he could have gotten elsewhere, and probably Phillips, too.  Oliver will be at $20 million at the end of year five, so he'll be looking at the same kind of money-vs-culture choice that the other two just made.  Once Oliver realizes that he isn't getting Aaron Donald money, he may very well decide that there are worse things than being paid very nicely to be on a winning team with a rotating defensive line.  A team that gives him a mega-contract will be looking for him to play, and have an impact, on 70% of the defensive snaps.  

 

And I've already concluded Poyer is gone unless he agrees to less than he can get elsewhere. 

[NewEra]

34 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Sorry, I should’ve been more specific.  
 

In my world, which is the world that I live, you and your thoughts are irrelevant.  

 

I would hope that you feel the same about myself and my thoughts…..but based on all of your reactions to my posts, I find that hard to believe.  If I were irrelevant, you wouldn’t waste your time.  
 

IIRC, I’ve never commented or posted a reaction to any of your posts that weren’t directed to me?  Why?  Irrelevant 

 

 

9 minutes ago, TheWeatherMan said:

You mean like this lengthy response about my previous post?  One could conclude that you deem my posts relevant because you respond to every one of them.  

I can’t recall ever commenting or leaving a reaction to any of your posts NOT DIRECTED TOWARDS ME.   I heard all caps can sometimes help with reading comprehension.  One could conclude that you’re lacking in that area based on your most recent reply. 
 

I respond to most people that quote me, it’s a common courtesy.  You quoted me, I responded to you.  
 

 

[Shaw66]

10 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

The only caveat I'd say here is that if we don't re-sign Edmunds, chances are high that we use our RD1 pick on a LB.

 

Hopefully we're drafting at the back end of RD1, and that's a prime spot to snag a top tier Guard/Center prospect.  

 

I think we have a decent OL and nice weaponry around him this year, but I'd really like for the team to get him some high draft pick ammo next year.  

Interesting comment.   I, for one and I think for most of us, haven't really gotten used to be a fan of a top team.  One personnel characteristic of top teams is they seem to be able make surprising moves in free agency.   For me, Miller came out of nowhere, but in retrospect I shouldn't have been so surprised.  Every off-season, some of the best teams get better.   

 

Similarly, surprising draft moves happen to with the best teams.   What's probably in the Bills' future is a player-for picks move, a player the fans love but that the Bills think they can afford to move.   Like an Oliver, for example.  Or, supposing Bernard really flashes this summer, a Milano.  We'd howl, but if the Bills got a second-round pick, or even packaged another pick with a player and got a first round pick, now come draft time, the Bills have options.   If their trade partner also happens to have a lousy season, the new pick becomes even more valuable, and the new pick is ammunition to be packaged with the Bills' first pick, and suddenly the Bills are sitting at 10 or 12 or 15.  

 

As I've been saying, I think if you want to be a long-term Buffalo Bill, you have to be either a core player or willing to take less money to stay in Buffalo.   The only exceptions are the Milanos, whom the Bills value enough to match the market, but even those guys are at risk.  Very few guys are indispensable.