Locked on Bills Podcast: A Case for Tremaine Edmunds

[TC in St. Louis]

42 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

You didn't like the factual stats comparing Edmunds to his contemporaries?

 

That was an important part of the podcast....his stats are impressive when compared to people like Leonard.  

[GunnerBill]

11 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

If he stays where he was at in 2021..........I don't see him being retained even for Milano money.   

 

So there is, or at least "should be", a pretty narrow runway to him landing long term deal in Buffalo, IMO.

 

See I think he would be if he played the same and they could get him at the original Milano money (before the restructure kicked the can) they would retain him. Not saying I would. But I think they would. 

[Shaw66]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I agree. I think they have Ed Oliver in "likely retain" territory but I think the rest of those guys (add Devin too) are genuine wait and sees.

I think you're right about this.  They've never said it like this, but I think in so many words Beane and McDermott have said "you have your core guys, and you have everyone else."  The core guys are excellent players in their own right, and they are the character leaders on the team.  They are long-term leaders.  You have to work your way into being a core player, and when you're there, you get a contract that says that by Bills' standards, you're elite.  

 

So, who's established himself as a core player?   Josh, Diggs, White.  (Miller, but he's unusual.   Core players are long-term leaders.   Miller is a short-term leader with great talent, so he's gotten paid like a core player, but he's not a guy the team is building its future on.)  Kyle Williams was a core player.  The Bills will pay their core players whatever they have to pay them to keep them.  (Remember a few years ago when Beane said he hoped Josh would force him to write a big check?   That's how you know the guy is a core player.   Diggs, White, and Miller each forced Beane to write a big check.)

 

Then you've got guys who are the model McDermott players, the guys McDermott will keep for as long as they're useful but who are expendable.  These are guys that Beane will not overpay - he won't write a big check, because he knows he can't afford to pay a lot for every guy he likes.   Hyde, Poyer, Morse, Milano, Johnson, Singletary, Knox.   Even some lesser guys, like Neal and McKenzie.   McDermott loves them, knows he needs guys like that on his team, but he's ready to move on from them if need be.   Shaq Lawson and Jordan Phillips were and are in that category - the Bills actually did, reluctantly, move on from them, but the Bills were happy to bring them back at the right price.   (Belichick has always had this discipline in New England.   I was flabbergasted when Belichick let Lawyer Milloy go, but he was just the first of many talented guys the Patriots let walk.)

 

Dawkins is, I think, on the bubble.  It wouldn't surprise me if one day he gets paid like a true core player, but he isn't there yet.   Hyde may be a bubble player, too - McDermott may become attached to him like he was attached to Williams, but I doubt it.  

 

Then, you've got the guys that McBeane soon will declare on.   Edmunds, Oliver.   Rousseau and Spencer Brown and a few others are a few years away.  

 

I think that's really what we're talking about here.   Is Edmunds a guy who, even with the apparent flaws that people keep pointing out, is a core guy?   Is he a guy on whom McDermott wants to build his defense for the next ten years?  As someone mentioned, McBeane haven't been effusive in their praise for Edmunds over the past year, so that would suggest no.  They didn't extend him promptly, like they did with White, Josh, and Diggs, although, as I said, there could be cap management reasons for that - Edmunds and Josh came up in the same year, and extending two core players in the same year might not have been the best cap strategy.  So, there's some evidence that they've already decided he isn't a core guy.   Drafting Bernard in the third round might suggest that the Bills already have begun the process of moving on, although it isn't easy to see how Bernard will be part of a new-look defense.  

 

And we don't know Edmunds' appetite for accepting a right-sized contract.   If the Bills say to Edmunds, "you're not a core player, and we aren't breaking the bank for you, but you are a key player who we want to keep (a Hyde or a Milano)," how will Edmunds respond?   I don't exactly know what contract parameters look like, but let's say someone will guarantee him $70 million and the Bills will guarantee $50 million.  Will he take the lesser amount because, like Hyde and others he values the winning culture and the opportunity to grow as a player?   If he has that mentality, great.   If he wants the biggest payday and the Bills don't see him as a core player, he'll be gone.  

 

2 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

 

Exactly.  

Edited July 3, 2022 by Shaw66

[BADOLBILZ]

39 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

See I think he would be if he played the same and they could get him at the original Milano money (before the restructure kicked the can) they would retain him. Not saying I would. But I think they would. 

 

You could be right..........I certainly haven't agreed with all of their contract decisions.

 

But I think it's more all or nothing.   He either meets his pre-draft expectations of becoming a game changing,  All Pro,  playmaker type...........or they HAVE to get much cheaper at the position.  They can't continue to rob the offense to pay the defense unless that defense is capable of imposing their will on the best offenses.  

 

If he becomes that DPOY candidate it could really transform their defense.    Then they can give him a 7 year deal that's really a 3 or 4 year deal and make some sense of it.

 

If a deal like Milano was going to work for both parties I think that would have been done after year 3 when the stars of the first round usually start getting extended.  He was healthier last year and tackled better as a result, but otherwise...........nothing changed other than prices for the VERY best at the position increasing.

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, TC in St. Louis said:

 

That was an important part of the podcast....his stats are impressive when compared to people like Leonard.  

 

 

Leonard has intercepted 11 passes (Edmunds 4),  forced 17 fumbles(just 2 for Edmunds) and recovered 7 fumbles(ZERO for Edmunds) with 15 sacks(5.5 for Edmunds) and 538 tackles(463).    

 

All done in 3 less games than Edmunds.

 

That's why Leonard is an All Pro every year........and Tremaine has never been.

 

 

[benderbender]

2 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

 

 

you're meme

[Mr. WEO]

3 hours ago, FireChans said:

This is correct.

 

The players that ALWAYS have topics about them on TBD are pretty much not good.

Trent

Maybin

Losman

Whitner

McKelvin

EJ

Brandon Reilly

Edmunds

 

Millions of topics. Not good players.

 

When was the last “Tre White” topic? Probably 2 years ago. Because he’s a good player and it’s obvious to everyone.

 

When was the last “Milano” topic? Again, probably 2 years ago, because he’s good and we all know this.

 

Edmunds is mediocre. Time to accept it.

Duke

 

[Long Suffering Fan]

3 hours ago, FireChans said:

The players that ALWAYS have topics about them on TBD are pretty much not good.

Trent

Maybin

Losman

Whitner

McKelvin

EJ

Brandon Reilly

Edmunds

 

Millions of topics. Not good players.

 

When was the last “Tre White” topic? Probably 2 years ago. Because he’s a good player and it’s obvious to everyone.

 

When was the last “Milano” topic? Again, probably 2 years ago, because he’s good and we all know this.

 

Edmunds is mediocre. Time to accept it.

 

If there was a...wait a minute...this made me think, emoji, that is what I would have used on this post.  As a long time lurker, I really think this is true.  All of those threads on other players...once they dragged out for years...it seems to turn out that they were not that good.

 

Does anyone have a contrarian example?

 

It is possible that Edmunds could be the first, but....

 

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

So, who's established himself as a core player?   Josh, Diggs, White.  (Miller, but he's unusual.   Core players are long-term leaders.   Miller is a short-term leader with great talent, so he's gotten paid like a core player, but he's not a guy the team is building its future on.)  Kyle Williams was a core player.  The Bills will pay their core players whatever they have to pay them to keep them.  (Remember a few years ago when Beane said he hoped Josh would force him to write a big check?   That's how you know the guy is a core player.   Diggs, White, and Miller each forced Beane to write a big check.)

 

Then you've got guys who are the model McDermott players, the guys McDermott will keep for as long as they're useful but who are expendable.  These are guys that Beane will not overpay - he won't write a big check, because he knows he can't afford to pay a lot for every guy he likes.   Hyde, Poyer, Morse, Milano, Johnson, Singletary, Knox.   Even some lesser guys, like Neal and McKenzie.   McDermott loves them, knows he needs guys like that on his team, but he's ready to move on from them if need be.   Shaq Lawson and Jordan Phillips were and are in that category - the Bills actually did, reluctantly, move on from them, but the Bills were happy to bring them back at the right price.   (Belichick has always had this discipline in New England.   I was flabbergasted when Belichick let Lawyer Milloy go, but he was just the first of many talented guys the Patriots let walk.)

 

Shaw66, this is just one of many excellent posts you've had on this thread.  I think you nailed it on this point.  (as much as we can know being on the outside)

 

I agree that he is not a good traditional LB.  Whether or not he is the leader of a new breed....the argument is interesting.

[MasterStrategist]

I think Tremaine will be extended, why he hasn't been yet, is pure conjecture on anyone's part.  But Beane has mentioned Tremaine as a "core" player, Mcd loves his nickle 2 LB scheme.  While drafting Bernard could point to more versatile looks/4-3 (less nickle looks against certain personnel), I don't think it's a sign of anything more.

 

Tremaine, at Darius or Fred money, would be a big mistake unless he truly takes it to that level.  But Tremaine at "tier 2", $12-15m per year (as Marino suggests), is his value, especially for our system and ehat he ask him to do.

[BADOLBILZ]

3 hours ago, FireChans said:

This is correct.

 

The players that ALWAYS have topics about them on TBD are pretty much not good.

Trent

Maybin

Losman

Whitner

McKelvin

EJ

Brandon Reilly

Edmunds

 

Millions of topics. Not good players.

 

When was the last “Tre White” topic? Probably 2 years ago. Because he’s a good player and it’s obvious to everyone.

 

When was the last “Milano” topic? Again, probably 2 years ago, because he’s good and we all know this.

 

Edmunds is mediocre. Time to accept it.

 

 

I agree with all of that.......except he is not mediocre.........he's a top 12-15 type starting MLB/ILB in the league.

 

He's just very underachieving.

 

He's a country mile from being the best player on the Bills defense...........just in the back 7 he's obviously lesser than Tre White and also guys like Milano and Hyde who were drafted on day 3.........and Poyer who was an UDFA.   

 

Whitner was also underachieving...........though at his position he was hamstrung by the Bills lack of talent in front of him.   Which of course was the big complaint with his selection(instead of Haloti Ngata in particular) in the first place.  You don't build a defense from the outside inward.    Some times the organization CREATES a whipping boy.  

 

If Edmunds went in round 3......like Brandon Smith, the Penn State LB from this past draft with a lot of impressive physical traits.........we'd all be like "well, they knew there was something that made him lesser than the sum of his parts".  

[Sharky7337]

4 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

You didn't like the factual stats comparing Edmunds to his contemporaries?

I did like those but he spent to much time one "they all say he's the leader" and "he's a freak" in my opinion the percentiles on his height and wingspan etc were nice.

[Shaw66]

32 minutes ago, Long Suffering Fan said:

 

If there was a...wait a minute...this made me think, emoji, that is what I would have used on this post.  As a long time lurker, I really think this is true.  All of those threads on other players...once they dragged out for years...it seems to turn out that they were not that good.

 

Does anyone have a contrarian example?

 

It is possible that Edmunds could be the first, but....

 

 

Shaw66, this is just one of many excellent posts you've had on this thread.  I think you nailed it on this point.  (as much as we can know being on the outside)

 

I agree that he is not a good traditional LB.  Whether or not he is the leader of a new breed....the argument is interesting.

Thanks.   I'm a firm believer that we don't know very much.  I think McDermott is way, way ahead of us.  What that means for Edmunds, I don't know.   

 

As for your other point, I think Firechans may be right, but gives all the wrong examples.   He cites a lot of players for whom there really wasn't much hope.   The question being debated about those guys was more like "can this guy be serviceable," not "can this guy become a key player."    I mean, everyone knew after a year that Manuel wasn't a Hall of Famer - the question was whether he could play well enough to make the Bills competitive.   Maybin, certainly.  I don't even know who Brandon Reily was.  No one was arguing that McKelvin was or would become a top-five cornerback.  

 

Edmunds is different.  The Edmunds discussion is more like the Fitzpatrick discussion, or the Tyrod discussion.   Or Stevie Johnson, or maybe, as he says, Whitner.   Those were guys about whom the question was "could this guy be the future?"   But even they were different from Edmunds.   Edmunds is a stand-alone physical talent who brings Hall of Fame raw measurables to the field.   

 

Edmunds is one of those guys about whom I always say it's better to give up on too late, than too early.    Some of the best values to be had are first and second round picks whose first team has given up on.   Why?  Because those are the guys with special physical gifts, and special physical gifts rarely are found in the fifth round (Kyle was one of the exceptions).  

 

Edmunds will still be 24 when he finishes this season.  That's really young.  On the other hand, he will have finished five seasons.   How long should the Bills wait on him?   I don't know.   All things considered, maybe the smart move next spring would be to tag him for a year.  $15 million to get another year to watch him develop, and another year to develop the backup plan, may not be the worst move in the world.  

Edited July 3, 2022 by Shaw66

[Nextmanup]

4 hours ago, FireChans said:

This is correct.

 

The players that ALWAYS have topics about them on TBD are pretty much not good.

Trent

Maybin

Losman

Whitner

McKelvin

EJ

Brandon Reilly

Edmunds

 

Millions of topics. Not good players.

 

When was the last “Tre White” topic? Probably 2 years ago. Because he’s a good player and it’s obvious to everyone.

 

When was the last “Milano” topic? Again, probably 2 years ago, because he’s good and we all know this.

 

Edmunds is mediocre. Time to accept it.

You can expand this principle to all topics, generally speaking.

 

How many interesting topics of conversation have been on this forum for the last 3 months?  Not many.

Why?  Times are good; the team is good; expectations are high.  There isn't a lot to argue/talk about.

 

It was like this when we were going to Super Bowls too.  A fun time in Bills history but also a boring one, in a sense.

 

When the team began deteriorating in the mid '90s things got interesting again.

 

 

[Buffalo716]

28 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I agree with all of that.......except he is not mediocre.........he's a top 12-15 type starting MLB/ILB in the league.

 

He's just very underachieving.

 

He's a country mile from being the best player on the Bills defense...........just in the back 7 he's obviously lesser than Tre White and also guys like Milano and Hyde who were drafted on day 3.........and Poyer who was an UDFA.   

 

Whitner was also underachieving...........though at his position he was hamstrung by the Bills lack of talent in front of him.   Which of course was the big complaint with his selection(instead of Haloti Ngata in particular) in the first place.  You don't build a defense from the outside inward.    Some times the organization CREATES a whipping boy.  

 

If Edmunds went in round 3......like Brandon Smith, the Penn State LB from this past draft with a lot of impressive physical traits.........we'd all be like "well, they knew there was something that made him lesser than the sum of his parts".  

Poyer wasn’t an UDFA 

 

understand your point just pointing it out 

Edited July 3, 2022 by Buffalo716

[FireChans]

27 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I agree with all of that.......except he is not mediocre.........he's a top 12-15 type starting MLB/ILB in the league.

 

He's just very underachieving.

 

He's a country mile from being the best player on the Bills defense...........just in the back 7 he's obviously lesser than Tre White and also guys like Milano and Hyde who were drafted on day 3.........and Poyer who was an UDFA.   

 

Whitner was also underachieving...........though at his position he was hamstrung by the Bills lack of talent in front of him.   Which of course was the big complaint with his selection(instead of Haloti Ngata in particular) in the first place.  You don't build a defense from the outside inward.    Some times the organization CREATES a whipping boy.  

 

If Edmunds went in round 3......like Brandon Smith, the Penn State LB from this past draft with a lot of impressive physical traits.........we'd all be like "well, they knew there was something that made him lesser than the sum of his parts".  

We heard this for years about guys like Edmunds too.

 

We heard, "wait til Star's back," "Milano missed the gap" etc etc etc etc.

 

I think when it is all said and done, Edmunds will basically be viewed as Whitner.  Solid player, but not worth all the hemming and hawing, and definitely not worth overpaying for.

[Saxum]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Poyer wasn’t an UDFA

 

Some cannot differentiate between UDFA and 7th round picks because 7th round picked "could have been undrafted" or should have in mock draft poster pays attention to.

 

Eagles selected Jordan Poyer in the 7th round (218th out of 254 overall) of the 2013 NFL Draft.

He was the 27th DB selected in 2013 and many DBs drafted before him are no longer in league.

[Buffalo716]

1 minute ago, Limeaid said:

 

Some cannot differentiate between UDFA and 7th round picks because 7th round picked "could have been undrafted" or should have in mock draft poster pays attention to.

 

Eagles selected Jordan Poyer in the 7th round (218th out of 254 overall) of the 2013 NFL Draft.

He was the 27th DB selected in 2013 and many DBs drafted before him are no longer in league.

And it’s still an honor to be drafted

[Saxum]

 

Regarding Tremaine Edmunds I think the Bills have a number they are willing to pay which is not absolute since market changes but not break the bank one.

Depending on how they think market is they may choose to tag for a year to see if he improves on things they believe he needs to and are capable of.

The issue with Tremaine Edmunds not being re-signed is the Bills will need two LBs to replace him and the 4-2-5 defense does not work well without him.

2 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

And it’s still an honor to be drafted

 

There certainly have been players who when they knew they were going to be either drafted in 7th round or be undrafted have told teams they would rather be undrafted.  One prospect told several teams he was going to back to grad school if he was drafted in 7th round so do not waste a pick but he may have been only telling that to teams he did want to be drafted by.

[BADOLBILZ]

11 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

 

Regarding Tremaine Edmunds I think the Bills have a number they are willing to pay which is not absolute since market changes but not break the bank one.

Depending on how they think market is they may choose to tag for a year to see if he improves on things they believe he needs to and are capable of.

The issue with Tremaine Edmunds not being re-signed is the Bills will need two LBs to replace him and the 4-2-5 defense does not work well without him.

 

Most of the league is playing 4-2-5 and only one team has the unicorn.

[Buffalo716]

13 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

 

Regarding Tremaine Edmunds I think the Bills have a number they are willing to pay which is not absolute since market changes but not break the bank one.

Depending on how they think market is they may choose to tag for a year to see if he improves on things they believe he needs to and are capable of.

The issue with Tremaine Edmunds not being re-signed is the Bills will need two LBs to replace him and the 4-2-5 defense does not work well without him.

 

There certainly have been players who when they knew they were going to be either drafted in 7th round or be undrafted have told teams they would rather be undrafted.  One prospect told several teams he was going to back to grad school if he was drafted in 7th round so do not waste a pick but he may have been only telling that to teams he did want to be drafted by.

I’ve been in the game of football for 30+ years 

 

 

That is an extreme extreme extreme minority

 

 

If you’re told you’re gonna be a top 70 pick… And you fall to the seventh round yes some of those guys have Not picked up the phone and chose their destination via undrafted free agency 

 

That is in the extreme extreme minority… If your projected to go in the fifth sixth or seventh round… And you see that phone call coming in from an NFL city 

 

It’s literally the culmination of 20 years of hard work