Locked on Bills Podcast: A Case for Tremaine Edmunds

[WotAGuy]

Edmunds will be gone next year. He’s like the hot blonde with a nice rack - someone will always overpay for him. 

[Orlando Buffalo]

I have an analogy that is less than perfect but will get my point across: my daughter is in middle school and plays for her school and the YMCA. I am her coach at the Y and because of her I am able to play a high pressure defense with the other 4 on the court and just her defending the lane basically in a league where the majority of the baskets are from the foul line or closer. When she is on the court the other teams generally don't score, but she does not block many shots or  get a ton of steals, all of her teammates do that and have the stats but she is the reason we won most games by an average of  about 28-8. At end of year one of the parents still said the kid who had the most steals was our defensive MVP, when I could have replaced him with so  many of the other kids in the league. The entire point of my big diatribe is that when you build an odd defense  people who don't understand it think of the positions conventionally, even when they are clearly being asked to do different.

[Shaw66]

31 minutes ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

I have an analogy that is less than perfect but will get my point across: my daughter is in middle school and plays for her school and the YMCA. I am her coach at the Y and because of her I am able to play a high pressure defense with the other 4 on the court and just her defending the lane basically in a league where the majority of the baskets are from the foul line or closer. When she is on the court the other teams generally don't score, but she does not block many shots or  get a ton of steals, all of her teammates do that and have the stats but she is the reason we won most games by an average of  about 28-8. At end of year one of the parents still said the kid who had the most steals was our defensive MVP, when I could have replaced him with so  many of the other kids in the league. The entire point of my big diatribe is that when you build an odd defense  people who don't understand it think of the positions conventionally, even when they are clearly being asked to do different.

Good example.   But why doesn't your league ban that style of play?  It deosn't help in skill development.  

Edited July 2, 2022 by Shaw66

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, RochesterLifer said:

So, now Tremaine Edmunds is the Bills' equivalent of an outfielder batting .160, truly amazing - and fortunately, comedic.

 

 

No it's merely meant to be an example of just how far teams will go to not criticize an underachieving player when they are stuck with him and a big guaranteed $ commitment.    

 

That said,  Joey Gallo(the outfielder in question) and Edmunds were similar level of players in their respective sports until a year ago when Gallo fell into a prolonged slump(that continues still).

 

Both were 2 time league All-Star/Pro Bowl players with things they do very well.  

 

Gallo the best defensive outfielder in the American League at his position twice and possessing enormous power.   

 

Edmunds........he has been really durable.  And he's young.  And produces a respectable amount of tackles and CAN cover a lot of ground in pass defense(even if much too often he can't make a play on the ball even when he has good coverage......and then, of course,  he too often gets suckered into covering the wrong ground by QB's that know the way his unininstictive mind works because of the tendencies he's put on tape).

[Doc Brown]

3 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Marino's declaration that the Bills were sold on Edmunds as the leader of their defense was a fact-free fact..........not something "in depth".

 

The Bills are stuck with Edmunds this season because they had to commit to his fully guaranteed 5th year option AFTER 2020.

 

Other than extend him long term, which they obviously haven't felt compelled to do, there is simply nothing they can do but ride it out with him in 2021 and try to prop up his confidence.

 

People who can't see this simply don't understand pro sports and teams being stuck with bad contracts.

This is exactly my thinking but they didn't seem that interested in drafting his replacement either.  Bernard is too small to replace him which still makes me scratch my head on why the Bills spend a 3rd round pick on him with Milano locked up through 2024.  My gut tells me that they're going to let him play out this year and if he doesn't improve they'll let him walk unless they can get him at what they see as fair market value.  Then they'll likely draft his replacement and rely on the veterans to give the rookie a crash course in their scheme.

Edited July 2, 2022 by Doc Brown

[TC in St. Louis]

5 hours ago, RocCityRoller said:

 

thanks, was this the podcast referred to by LeGOATski in the other thread?

 

 

 

I don't know.  I don't read all the threads.  If he was talking about Edmunds specifically, then it was probably the same one.  I noticed the mention on page 45 of a thread started in April.  

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

I have an analogy that is less than perfect but will get my point across: my daughter is in middle school and plays for her school and the YMCA

 

So you're saying Edmunds plays like a little girl? Jeez man, I've criticized him, but take it easy.

[BADOLBILZ]

3 hours ago, SCBills said:

He has trade value.  If we were “stuck” with him at a price we didn’t want to deal with, we would have moved him by now.  

 

 

As "guaranteed contract league's" like MLB and the NBA/NHL have proven......it definitely can be both.

 

The player can have a some kind of trade value but it can be low enough and the roster can be shallow enough at the position to make it not worthwhile to eat 8 figures of salary and make a trade when you are chasing a championship.

 

That's the situation the Yankees found themselves in with Joey Gallo this offseason as well.    They had a lot of trade interest in spring but also no depth at the position.......so they were hoping for the light to turn on for him with a new season.

 

 Edmunds situation is similar.........the Bills are still keeping the possibility open that the light will come on for him fully and he will start playing up to his  All-Pro-like physical gifts.    

 

Again, I'm not saying Edmunds is destined to fall off a cliff like Gallo has......it's likely been a worst case scenario with Gallo as a hitter............but another reason why this comp is relevant is because Edmunds is the rare non-QB who is playing on a fully guaranteed "baseball-like" contract.

 

And back to trade value........what really kills the trade value Edmunds may have is that he has a very high $12.7M cap number for 2021..........and absolutely zero motivation whatsoever to lower that cap figure without getting a long term deal at the top of the market.

 

Any team that is looking to pay much of anything in draft picks for a one year rental of a $13M MLB in trade likely considers themselves a contender.   Contenders generally have less cap space.    

[Old Coot]

I'm betting the team will try to re-sign Edmunds.  Why?

 

He's a valuable part of the Bills' D. If he leaves who will replace him?  As Joe marino says Edmunds is a physical freak, tall, huge windspan and covers alot of ground.

 

Sure he has weaknesses but whoever replaces him would not be able to do what he does.

 

Replacing him would require a restructuring the Bills' base defense and likely set back the D a year or two. 

[TC in St. Louis]

I think he'll have a better season playing behind a better line.  He's asked to cover multiple gaps in the run game, and often chooses the wrong gap.  Maybe that's planned by the opposing offense to get him out of the way.  There is criticism over his lack of splash plays, but he's not normally in position to jackhammer anybody.  He's quick enough to jump into plays and disrupt the flow.  

 

It's hard to be to critical of the so-called leader of the number one defense in the league.  

[Shaw66]

8 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

This is exactly my thinking but they didn't seem that interested in drafting his replacement either.  Bernard is too small to replace him which still makes me scratch my head on why the Bills spend a 3rd round pick on him with Milano locked up through 2024.  My gut tells me that they're going to let him play out this year and if he doesn't improve they'll let him walk unless they can get him at what they see as fair market value.  Then they'll likely draft his replacement and rely on the veterans to give the rookie a crash course in their scheme.

This is a very, very un-Beanelike plan.  Who's to say there's a first- or second-round talent in the draft who can play MLB?   And who's to say the Bills could work the draft to get him?   I can't imagine that Beane and McDermott would go naked into the 2023 off-season like that.   That alone suggests to me that the Bills will keep him. 

[JerseyBills]

Didn't listen but I trust my own analysis of Edmunds and he's been a multi year captain, QB of the defense. That alone tells me he isn't going anywhere 

[Doc Brown]

14 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

This is a very, very un-Beanelike plan.  Who's to say there's a first- or second-round talent in the draft who can play MLB?   And who's to say the Bills could work the draft to get him?   I can't imagine that Beane and McDermott would go naked into the 2023 off-season like that.   That alone suggests to me that the Bills will keep him. 

So is letting a rookie play out his fifth year option without re-signing him long term.  There should be options out there in the draft (Noah Sewell out of Oregon.  Trenton Simpson out of Clemson, DeMarvion Overshown out of Tennessee to name a few).  They can always address the position in free agency or via trade too.  

[HappyDays]

33 minutes ago, Old Coot said:

Replacing him would require a restructuring the Bills' base defense and likely set back the D a year or two. 

 

Based on some of the moves they've made this offseason I think they are already in the process of doing this. Same on the offensive side of the ball. The Bills are not going to be stagnant. They are making intentional moves to keep their scheme more flexible than it has been. They do NOT need a MLB with Edmunds' athletic gifts to build a successful defense, that's crazy. McDermott has built several successful defenses with a wide variety of players.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

6 hours ago, TC in St. Louis said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DjyNXYJVBJY

 

Joe Marino gets into some depth about Edmunds.  If you don't listen to "Locked on Bills," you should give it a try.  

let me ask you 

 

How many Edmunds threads do we need?

 

Search Edmunds and you will see half a dozen or more 

 

Oh look. Front Page 

 

https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/239576-can-we-talk-about-tremaine-edmunds/page/16/#comment-7781845

 

[Don Otreply]

5 hours ago, SCBills said:

I think most people here see the big picture.   
 

Marino also points out that Edmunds, right now, is not on the level of the highest paid Linebackers.  
 

If he doesn’t make a jump this year, behind a potentially elite DL, it’s going to be hard to swallow a Darius Leonard contract.

 

Furthermore, if you overpay by 5M AAV for a guy who never becomes elite, that is how you start putting yourself in cap jail.  
 

So far, Beane has been spot on with his big contracts, which is how you build a contender that doesn’t mortgage the future.  
 

Also, we can likely keep Edmunds, Poyer, Knox, Oliver etc., if we really want to.. but it also means no Roger Saffold, DaQuan Jones type signings anymore.

 

Easier pill to swallow if Edmunds is paid in the 13-15M range or earns the 19M, and we finally start devoting RD1 picks to the Offense. 
 

I did say it was a well rounded critique.

JM did state he is not a top tier salary candidate do to specific performance expectations, and I agree with that,  I suspect Beane has made such a point directly to TE and his agent, I am also certain that Beane made it clear that pay is directly tied to game changing play/ splash play numbers. 
 

I expect him to be re-signed to a deal commiserate with his performance standing. 

[Old Coot]

27 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

1 hour ago, Old Coot said:

Replacing him would require a restructuring the Bills' base defense and likely set back the D a year or two. 

 

Based on some of the moves they've made this offseason I think they are already in the process of doing this. Same on the offensive side of the ball. The Bills are not going to be stagnant. They are making intentional moves to keep their scheme more flexible than it has been. They do NOT need a MLB with Edmunds' athletic gifts to build a successful defense, that's crazy. McDermott has built several successful defenses with a wide variety of players.

To be clear, I was not saying that a successful D cannot be built absent Edmunds.  I was saying that absent Edmunds the Bills will need to restructure their D.  It takes awhile for a D to jell; that's why I said the base D will likely be set back a year or two.  

 

In those one or two years, the Bills may lose other key players on D or O so that the replacement process becomes something akin to "Wack-A-Mole."

[Shaw66]

30 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Based on some of the moves they've made this offseason I think they are already in the process of doing this. Same on the offensive side of the ball. The Bills are not going to be stagnant. They are making intentional moves to keep their scheme more flexible than it has been. They do NOT need a MLB with Edmunds' athletic gifts to build a successful defense, that's crazy. McDermott has built several successful defenses with a wide variety of players.

That's interesting.  If they replace Edmunds, the roles of all the pass defenders change.   That's a big move.  But you may be right.  They certainly are intentional.  Maybe McDermott will be happy with a less mobile, more traditional MLB, with the idea that Bernard and Milano will have enough speed and quickness in the passing game.  Quite possible.  

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, HappyDays said:

If the Bills really thought Edmunds was that important they would have paid him already. Since Beane took over they have paid their core players early. Allen, White, Diggs, Hyde, Poyer, Dawkins - these players all got new contracts a year before it was necessary. With Edmunds they exercised the 5th year option and are seemingly set to let him play it out this season and decide from there. So Beane and the coaches can say whatever they want in their press conferences. Their actions tell us otherwise.

 

Actually what they have said in pressers this off season has been telling too. The Beane combine presser apart it has been much less effusive in their praise / defense of Edmunds than in prior years. 

 

I think they are going to let it play out. That doesn't mean they definitely won't extend him eventually. But I agree if they thought he was a "must keep" it would have happened by now. 

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

I like Joe Marino and I listen to the podcast pretty much everyday. Of course he has a couple takes I disagree with.
 

One that comes to mind is that you shouldn’t blame Beane for the Wyatt Teller trade. It’s not the end of the world but it was a mistake. There’s nothing wrong with admitting that. Beane has done a lot more good than bad. 
 

The reason I bring that up is because this Edmunds podcast is another case of Joe being too much of a homer to be objective. You can hear it in his voice. Even when he talks about the negatives he immediately makes excuses for TE. 
 

He puts far too much value in Edmunds’ length and unprovable theories about what opposing QBs are thinking. Having longer arms is negligible when you take a wrong step in coverage and are a couple feet out of position. 
 

Here’s a perfect example where the arms don’t help because they’re attached to a body that is in the wrong spot:

 

https://www.chiefs.com/video/touchdown-travis-kelce-uses-double-move-on-tremaine-edmunds

 

I know it’s the best tight end in football but it’s just an example of what Edmunds does far too often.