Locked on Bills Podcast: A Case for Tremaine Edmunds

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, TC in St. Louis said:

You know what?  This podcast does need its own thread.  Rather than having to sift through 200 posts written 2 months ago, why not point out some current analysis by Joe Marino?  I'm calling attention to him, not me.

 

So if you want to learn some in depth reality about Edmunds,  listen to the podcast or watch it on youtube.  I don't care what you do.  Just sharing information that I find informative and helpful.  

 

 

Marino's declaration that the Bills were sold on Edmunds as the leader of their defense was a fact-free fact..........not something "in depth".

 

The Bills are stuck with Edmunds this season because they had to commit to his fully guaranteed 5th year option AFTER 2020.

 

Other than extend him long term, which they obviously haven't felt compelled to do, there is simply nothing they can do but ride it out with him in 2021 and try to prop up his confidence.

 

People who can't see this simply don't understand pro sports and teams being stuck with bad contracts.

 

The Yankees have an outfielder hitting .160 that they paid a lot in trade to get and are paying a high salary...........so they play him no matter how bad he is and when they are asked about how they play one of the worst hitters in the league they say things like "he's just had some bad luck, he's getting good swings" no mention of the actual issues......like constantly swinging at pitches he can't hit.    

 

Same way the Bills treat Tremaine.   They don't even talk about the actual weaknesses.   The "splash" plays thing is, like I said, a way of making it seem like those are just a bonus that he's not producing.   That's not the case.

[SCBills]

2 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Marino's declaration that the Bills were sold on Edmunds as the leader of their defense was a fact-free fact..........not something "in depth".

 

The Bills are stuck with Edmunds this season because they had to commit to his fully guaranteed 5th year option AFTER 2020.

 

Other than extend him long term, which they obviously haven't felt compelled to do, there is simply nothing they can do but ride it out with him in 2021 and try to prop up his confidence.

 

People who can't see this simply don't understand pro sports and teams being stuck with bad contracts.

 

The Yankees have an outfielder hitting .160 that they paid a lot in trade to get and are paying a high salary...........so they play him no matter how bad he is and when they are asked about how they play one of the worst hitters in the league they say things like "he's just had some bad luck, he's getting good swings" no mention of the actual issues......like constantly swinging at pitches he can't hit.    

 

Same way the Bills treat Tremaine.   They don't even talk about the actual weaknesses.   The "splash" plays thing is, like I said, a way of making it seem like those are just a bonus that he's not producing.   That's not the case.

He has trade value.  If we were “stuck” with him at a price we didn’t want to deal with, we would have moved him by now.  

[Brand J]

Also, Marino made a comment like Edmunds is doing things on the field that almost no other LB does, maybe since Brian Urlacher (I’m paraphrasing here). Does anyone get the feeling Edmunds is revolutionizing the way that position is played? That he’s so great in what he does, there’s no other like him? Let’s be realistic here, Saleh’s comments aside…

[SCBills]

1 minute ago, JayBaller10 said:

Also, Marino made a comment like Edmunds is doing things on the field that almost no other LB does, maybe since Brian Urlacher (I’m paraphrasing here). Does anyone get the feeling Edmunds is revolutionizing the way that position is played? That he’s so great in what he does, there’s no other like him? Let’s be realistic here, Saleh’s comments aside…

As someone who’s not sold on Edmunds, or perhaps more-so the need to invest heavily in the LB position.. I would not be shocked at all to see Edmunds become an absolute monster this year.  
 

My worries would be that he needs a dominant DL to operate behind and that it’s bad asset allocation to pay two LB’s big money… but as we’re a Nickel team, I can stomach that if he makes the jump. 

[Shaw66]

40 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

It's possible, but historically when Beane has extended his core players he's done it in a way that lowers their cap hit for the first year and then escalates. If the Bills wanted to commit to Edmunds they could do it right now. I think it's more likely that the simple answer is correct - they haven't committed to him yet because they aren't committed to him yet.

That may be true.  I don't know.  But just because he's done things in certain ways doesn't mean that he will do them that way every time.  He said his system is to get talent in the draft and plug holes in free agency.   Then he signed Von Miller.  I don't think we can know what Beane is thinking until he moves or tells us.  

[Brand J]

4 minutes ago, SCBills said:

As someone who’s not sold on Edmunds, or perhaps more-so the need to invest heavily in the LB position.. I would not be shocked at all to see Edmunds become an absolute monster this year.  
 

My worries would be that he needs a dominant DL to operate behind and that it’s bad asset allocation to pay two LB’s big money… but as we’re a Nickel team, I can stomach that if he makes the jump. 

I didn’t like the Terel Bernard pick in the 3rd (liked the position, not the name), but by all accounts he’s really popped in practice and showcased his speed. He and Edmunds are entirely different players, but if Bernard excels more than we could’ve hoped for, it makes Edmunds that much more expendable. Like Beane said, their styles are totally different, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Milano/Bernard pairing going into next year if the rook keeps killing it. The MLB position in this defense isn’t typical anyway since they do run so much nickel. 

[Shaw66]

12 minutes ago, JayBaller10 said:

Also, Marino made a comment like Edmunds is doing things on the field that almost no other LB does, maybe since Brian Urlacher (I’m paraphrasing here). Does anyone get the feeling Edmunds is revolutionizing the way that position is played? That he’s so great in what he does, there’s no other like him? Let’s be realistic here, Saleh’s comments aside…

It may in fact be true.  That's what Marino is said.   He's a unicorn, and his impact on the team does not show up with individual stats.  

 

One thing is true:  there is no middle linebacker in the league with his combination of size, speed, and quickness.   He's unique.   And the defense he's playing on is statistically outstanding.  The question that you don't answer, and none of us can, is the extent to which his unique talents are the reason for the defensive excellence.  

5 minutes ago, JayBaller10 said:

I didn’t like the Terel Bernard pick in the 3rd (liked the position, not the name), but by all accounts he’s really popped in practice and showcased his speed. He and Edmunds are entirely different players, but if Bernard excels more than we could’ve hoped for, it makes Edmunds that much more expendable. Like Beane said, their styles are totally different, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Milano/Bernard pairing going into next year if the rook keeps killing it. The MLB position in this defense isn’t typical anyway since they do run so much nickel. 

My theory continues to be that Bernard will drive the move toward more 4-3 and less nickel.  When you've got three linebackers who can run like that, you may be able to afford playing one less defensive back.  

[The Wiz]

2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

It may in fact be true.  That's what Marino is said.   He's a unicorn, and his impact on the team does not show up with individual stats.  

 

One thing is true:  there is no middle linebacker in the league with his combination of size, speed, and quickness.   He's unique.   And the defense he's playing on is statistically outstanding.  The question that you don't answer, and none of us can, is the extent to which his unique talents are the reason for the defensive excellence.  

And that right there is his biggest asset.  He eats up space over the middle of the field with all of these attributes.  I remember seeing a breakdown of passing plays (not sure if it was against one team or overall) about how teams rarely throw to the middle of the field when he is out there which makes things easier to defend for the rest of the secondary.

[HappyDays]

Just now, Shaw66 said:

One thing is true:  there is no middle linebacker in the league with his combination of size, speed, and quickness.   He's unique.

 

Yes but he doesn't look natural playing the position. There's something awkward about his play. It reminds me of EJ Manuel, very robotic and always trying to remember the little details instead of just doing them. The best players are instinctive. If you're thinking about what you're supposed to do you've already failed. His pure athleticism makes up for some of his mental flaws but good offenses have turned those flaws against him and I haven't seen any signs that he's suddenly going to develop the necessary instincts to raise his level of play. Big and fast doesn't cut it in the NFL. The history of the league is littered with elite athletes that never learned how to play football.

[Brand J]

9 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

It may in fact be true.  That's what Marino is said.   He's a unicorn, and his impact on the team does not show up with individual stats.  

 

One thing is true:  there is no middle linebacker in the league with his combination of size, speed, and quickness.   He's unique.   And the defense he's playing on is statistically outstanding.  The question that you don't answer, and none of us can, is the extent to which his unique talents are the reason for the defensive excellence.  

My theory continues to be that Bernard will drive the move toward more 4-3 and less nickel.  When you've got three linebackers who can run like that, you may be able to afford playing one less defensive back.  

The defensive prowess is part of my argument against Edmunds. The Bills struggle against teams that can run or pass, but they’re excellent in shutting down one dimensional offenses (Patriots game #1 notwithstanding). As I said, they’re not alone, no team consistently stops the better offenses. To that end, I question the unicorn comment and Edmunds’ subsequent worth. I don’t believe he does his job so well that he makes everyone else on the backend look great. I think those players look great because they are. I’m not saying he doesn’t have a part in the unit as a whole, that would be silly, I’m saying his value is overstated, especially when it comes to stopping the better or balanced offenses in the league.

[LABILLBACKER]

31 minutes ago, SCBills said:

As someone who’s not sold on Edmunds, or perhaps more-so the need to invest heavily in the LB position.. I would not be shocked at all to see Edmunds become an absolute monster this year.  
 

My worries would be that he needs a dominant DL to operate behind and that it’s bad asset allocation to pay two LB’s big money… but as we’re a Nickel team, I can stomach that if he makes the jump. 

He's never going to be a monster player but considering this is his contract year I wouldn't be surprised to see an uptick in his play. As others have accurately stated if they were going to extend him it would have happened by now.  We're not paying him what he'll ( and his agent) will demand. It's not like he did anything against Kelce while we were giving up 80 points in our last 2 playoff loses. Besides this is a passing league and we're a Nickel team like you said. Invest the money on our pass rush.

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

If the Bills really thought Edmunds was that important they would have paid him already. Since Beane took over they have paid their core players early. Allen, White, Diggs, Hyde, Poyer, Dawkins - these players all got new contracts a year before it was necessary. With Edmunds they exercised the 5th year option and are seemingly set to let him play it out this season and decide from there. So Beane and the coaches can say whatever they want in their press conferences. Their actions tell us otherwise.

Exactly. The words don't fit the actions. 

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, JayBaller10 said:

Also, Marino made a comment like Edmunds is doing things on the field that almost no other LB does, maybe since Brian Urlacher (I’m paraphrasing here). Does anyone get the feeling Edmunds is revolutionizing the way that position is played? That he’s so great in what he does, there’s no other like him? Let’s be realistic here, Saleh’s comments aside…

I respect the heck out of Joe Marino's opinion. He is beyond knowledgeable about the Bill's players. However, I really don't see a lot of what Marino is seeing. Clearly, Marino knows more than myself. 

[BigAl2526]

I don't have near the issue with Tremaine Edmunds that many poster/Bills fans do.  No, he's not the super linebacker that Luke Keukly was for Sean McDermott in Carolina's defense.  Still, he provides excellent pass coverage in the short zone, and with him in the middle, the Bills were statistically the top defense in the league last season.  I think with the improvements that Buffalo has made on the defensive line, Edmunds will be benefited in other areas of his game.

[RochesterLifer]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

The Yankees have an outfielder hitting .160 that they paid a lot in trade to get and are paying a high salary...........so they play him no matter how bad he is and when they are asked about how they play one of the worst hitters in the league they say things like "he's just had some bad luck, he's getting good swings" no mention of the actual issues......like constantly swinging at pitches he can't hit.    

 

Same way the Bills treat Tremaine.   They don't even talk about the actual weaknesses.   The "splash" plays thing is, like I said, a way of making it seem like those are just a bonus that he's not producing.   That's not the case.

So, now Tremaine Edmunds is the Bills' equivalent of an outfielder batting .160, truly amazing - and fortunately, comedic.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1 hour ago, JayBaller10 said:

Also, Marino made a comment like Edmunds is doing things on the field that almost no other LB does, maybe since Brian Urlacher (I’m paraphrasing here). Does anyone get the feeling Edmunds is revolutionizing the way that position is played? That he’s so great in what he does, there’s no other like him? Let’s be realistic here, Saleh’s comments aside…

He is not.  He has the size and speed to be everything Urlacher was only he doesn't make the plays Urlacher made.  Urlacher had 6 INT and 4 Forced Fumbles in his first four years.  Edmunds has 4 INT and 2 FF with none since his rookie year.  Urlacher had 21 sacks in his first four years and Edmunds has 5.5.  Perhaps it is unfair to compare Edmunds to a HOF player. But if you are going to make him the highest paid player in the NFL at his position which is what his agent will demand, then those comparisons should not be that far off.  

 

19 minutes ago, BigAl2526 said:

I don't have near the issue with Tremaine Edmunds that many poster/Bills fans do.  No, he's not the super linebacker that Luke Keukly was for Sean McDermott in Carolina's defense.  Still, he provides excellent pass coverage in the short zone, and with him in the middle, the Bills were statistically the top defense in the league last season.  I think with the improvements that Buffalo has made on the defensive line, Edmunds will be benefited in other areas of his game.

Actually he doesn't.  Of course it is hard to prove the passes that aren't made to the middle of the field because he is there, but his pass coverage rating is over 100 the past two years.  He had one nice INT last season playing underneath trail coverage and picked off a pass that should have never been thrown.  Maybe one or tow other pass break ups come to mind.  

 

With all that said, picking up the 5th year option was the best move and it is what I would have done (I posted multiple times that was the move to make before Beane did it). Make him play this year and if he plays like a top 5 MLB this year, then franchise him and work out a long term deal.  If he doesn't let him walk and draft his replacement.  

[GETTOTHE50]

I am sick of seeing tight ends run by edmunds. I am sick of his crappy run game instincts. I won’t miss him when he’s gone, and hope he signs with a divisional foe so JA17 can complete easy game winning passes over the middle like Brady and mahomes have done on him. 

Edited July 2, 2022 by GETTOTHE50

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

Yes but he doesn't look natural playing the position. There's something awkward about his play. It reminds me of EJ Manuel, very robotic and always trying to remember the little details instead of just doing them. The best players are instinctive. If you're thinking about what you're supposed to do you've already failed. His pure athleticism makes up for some of his mental flaws but good offenses have turned those flaws against him and I haven't seen any signs that he's suddenly going to develop the necessary instincts to raise his level of play. Big and fast doesn't cut it in the NFL. The history of the league is littered with elite athletes that never learned how to play football.

I think this is really interesting.  I hear exactly what you're saying, but I think what you're ignoring is that Edmunds may in fact be a unicorn, a once-every-fifty-year player.  I think what makes him so valuable may be that his physical talent is so unusual that he'e most valuable if you use him in a non-traditional way.  If I'm right that Edmunds makes six pass defenders all better, the fact that he isn't instinctive just may not be that important an impediment.    In terms of his play on the field, I'm saying that what the current Edmunds does for you is give up some yards in the run game and get beaten occasionally in the middle passing game, while he gets for you better play out of your whole defensive backfield.  If that's true, then that's a tradeoff McDermott will be all too willing to make.   

 

I don't know how much of that is actually true (especially because I agree that you describe pretty well what my eyeballs see), but I suspect there is at least some truth there.  If it weren't true, there would have a lot more plays in the last few years when the Bills would have taken Edmunds off the field.  

 

Anyway, I think this is the point that is at the crux of the conversation:  Just how significant is it to the Bills that Edmunds allows them to reshape the rest of the defense simply by playing the way he does?  If they think it's significant, then the Bills will pay him.   Some fans will scratch their head and say Beane blew it, but it's really going to depend not on the plays he makes but on the limits he imposes on  offenses.  

[Seoulofstone]

Milano missed the KC win last season. He was back in the playoffs and had a terrible game. Yet Tremaine solely gets the blame. He wears the green dot and has organized a perennially strong secondary from a young age. But because of fans’ perception of his ‘impact’ they want to push him off the roster.

 The good news is McB don’t care what others think of their choices. They will live or die by what THEY want, which is as it should be. McB have made it clear that they love him. How I shall enjoy the sweet tears of Edmunds detractors when he gets his extension.

[Shaw66]

12 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

 

 

Actually he doesn't.  Of course it is hard to prove the passes that aren't made to the middle of the field because he is there, but his pass coverage rating is over 100 the past two years.  He had one nice INT last season playing underneath trail coverage and picked off a pass that should have never been thrown.  Maybe one or tow other pass break ups come to mind.  

 

 

You may not have read my other post a minute ago, but this is where you are missing, or at least undervaluing, Edmunds value. 

 

The Bills play a lot of zone.  They're really effective in it.  Why?  Well, it may be, it actually makes a lot of sense, that the reason they are so good in zone is because they have Edmunds in the middle.   Edmunds in the middle shrink the geographic responsibilities of all the other pass defenders.   It may shrink those responsibilities to the point where it becomes easier for each of the six to succeed.   So, if the Bills give up some completions over the middle, completions that rarely result in touchdowns, they may not care, because what they get in exchange is a suffocating pass defense.   If that description is correct, then his pass coverage rating will in fact look bad or mediocre.   He's not getting credit for any of the stops his teammates are making.  

 

Frazier and McDermott understand exactly how big that impact is on the defense.   I don't, and I doubt anyone here does.   It's invisible, in that we can't see that the reason Poyer was in position to make a play was that he didn't have to worry about some territory that every other safety in the league does have to worry about.  It's not a stat, although the Bills may have found some way to quantify it.   But I assure you Frazier and McDermott know.   

 

The question about the next contract will be determined by how big that invisible impact is.   Beane will be asking McDermott how much it would mean to lose Edmunds.   McDermott's answer will tell Beane all he needs to know.   Clearly, McDermott answered that question about Josh, "it would mean everything."  Clearly, McDermott hasn't said that about Edmunds, or he would have been extended already.  So, what will McDermott say about Edmunds?   "I'll need to rebuild the back 7?   I'll need two linebackers to replace him?  I'd love to have him, but he's expendable?"   

 

I'm guessing Edmunds is going nowhere.