Final Roster Predictions WRs

[SectionC3]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

If that is true he might wanna start catching something soon. The ball would be a start. 

 

I can’t believe McD ever trusts him again.  He had his own fiasco last year that cost us points.  He had muff issues in camp last year.  And, as you noted, he’s apparently had a tenuous relationship with the ball this spring.  

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, SectionC3 said:

 

I can’t believe McD ever trusts him again.  He had his own fiasco last year that cost us points.  He had muff issues in camp last year.  And, as you noted, he’s apparently had a tenuous relationship with the ball this spring.  

I'm sorry but Stevenson is not making the 53 with Shakir, McKittrick and Austin. He'll be odd man out. Maybe PS?

[Rocky Landing]

I’ve been following this thread daily, and there are a few perspectives I’m a little surprised by on here.

 

Gabriel Davis:

There’s been a narrative on here and in the media that the Bills will be “taking a risk” with Davis as the #2WR. I think we could all see his potential at the beginning of ’21, and I feel like it’s clear that he developed into exactly that. He has a great catch radius, and can win contested targets. His separation improved. The third-down sideline throw to Davis where his toes are inbounds, and he is catching the ball as he is falling out of bounds was a weekly occurrence, and impossible to defend against. IMO, Davis ended the season a legit #2, and I don’t see why that would be a risk. We know who he is.

 

Beasley vs. Crowder:

Looking at Beasley’s numbers for the ’21 season, I was actually surprised that his production hadn’t fallen off more than it did. He had more targets, but fewer receptions, yards, and TDs from the previous season. And, I think the biggest falloff for him was his ability to get separation.

 

Beasley had Tony Romo and Dak Prescott throwing him the ball for most of his career, but he didn’t have his career-high season until 2020 with Josh Allen. Crowder has had crap QBs, on crap teams, throwing him the ball his entire career, and his production was very similar to Beasley’s in Dallas.

 

If Crowder is given a similar role to Beasley’s, I think it’s reasonable to predict that Crowder will have a career season in Buffalo as well. Hopefully, he can stay healthy.

 

Austin vs. Stevenson vs. Hodgins vs. Kumerow vs. The Rest of the Bubble WRs:

The arguments for depth WRs is always pretty amusing this time of year, and there seems to be no shortage of table-pounding this time around.

 

I don’t think Kumerow belongs in the same conversation as the rest of the bubble WRs. I agree with @GunnerBill that Kumerow’s main competition is Taiwan Jones as a special teamer, although I don’t agree that they can’t both make the team. Jones has zero value as a RB, but Kumerow does have value as a WR, even though he had a couple notable drops last season that dropped that value.

 

I am mystified by the table-pounding over Hodgins, and Stevenson. Stevenson stinks on ice. The best thing we have ever heard about Hodgins was a blithe compliment during his rookie training camp from Diggs about how well he (and Davis) had learned the playbook. At least Duke Williams had a compelling backstory. I think Tanner Gentry has a better chance of making the roster than these two.

 

Opinions on Austin are all over the board, and the most intriguing, IMO. My initial thought was that he would be camp competition for P/KR— perhaps to help elevate Shakir’s return game— and would have very little chance of making the 53. Maybe he'd be a veteran on the PS? But, reports out of OTAs (they certainly gave him plenty of reps), the timing of his acquisition, and frankly his press conferences, have me wondering…

 

 

 

Edited June 17, 2022 by Rocky Landing

[BillsFanForever19]

1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I'm sorry but Stevenson is not making the 53 with Shakir, McKittrick and Austin. He'll be odd man out. Maybe PS?

 

Agreed. Some combination of Stevenson, Hodgins, Gentry, and Pau'u will form our Practice Squad this season. The 53 will include:

 

Diggs

Davis

Crowder

McKenzie

Shakir

Austin

Kumerow (ST)

Edited June 17, 2022 by BillsFanForever19

[unbillievable]

1 hour ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Agreed. Some combination of Stevenson, Hodgins, Gentry, and Pau'u will form our Practice Squad this season. The 53 will include:

 

Diggs

Davis

Crowder

McKenzie

Shakir

Austin

Kumerow (ST)

 

I think the surprise cut will either be Crowder or OJ Howard.

 

Drafting Shakir AND Cook makes having a backup slot WR unnecessary. Crowder can save himself by out-playing McKenzie for the starting job.

 

However, they might keep 7 WR if Howard continues to disappoint. Also, If Austin is not fielding punts or kickoffs in pre-season, he's not making the team at all.

 

Stevenson's speed will get him a look from other teams if he's on the PS. Austin and Kumerow are probably safer being stashed there.

 

Edited June 17, 2022 by unbillievable

[unbillievable]

The way Josh is playing, they don't really need a dynamic punt returner. Ball security is more important.

HYDE will field it in the playoffs, until someone steps up. Hopefully Austin.

[BillsFanForever19]

36 minutes ago, unbillievable said:

 

I think the surprise cut will either be Crowder or OJ Howard.

 

Drafting Shakir AND Cook makes having a backup slot WR unnecessary. Crowder can save himself by out-playing McKenzie for the starting job.

 

However, they might keep 7 WR if Howard continues to disappoint. Also, If Austin is not fielding punts or kickoffs in pre-season, he's not making the team at all.

 

Stevenson's speed will get him a look from other teams if he's on the PS. Austin and Kumerow are probably safer being stashed there.

 

 

Howard has no barring on WR. He was given 3.5 million, of which 3.2 is guaranteed. You need to have more than one TE on your team. Howard isn't going anywhere.

 

I love McKenzie. But I think the idea of him starting over Crowder is crazy talk. He'll be used the same way he always has. A gadget player that gets more slot time than your normal backup.

 

Crowder, much like Howard, signed a 2 million dollar deal of which 1.8 is guaranteed. These aren't Jacob Hollister situations (where he signed a 1.12 of which only 150k was guaranteed). There's no point in releasing them. They're already paid for regardless.

 

Btw, everyone speaks of Marquez Stevenson as having some sort of elite, irreplaceable speed. You're all aware that his 40 time at the Combine was 4.45, right? Not saying that's slow - but if you compare to our other guys, it's not the freakish speed that he's given credit for. And honestly, he looks like a player who plays slower than his timed speed on field:

 

Stefon Diggs - 4.46

Isaiah McKenzie - 4.42

Khalil Shakir - 4.43

Tavon Austin - 4.34

Edited June 17, 2022 by BillsFanForever19

[unbillievable]

Just now, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Howard has no barring on WR. He was given 3.5 million, of which 3.2 is guaranteed. You need to have more than one TE on your team. Howard isn't going anywhere.

 

I love McKenzie. But I think the idea of him starting over Crowder is crazy talk. He'll be used the same way he always has. A gadget player that gets more slot time than your normal backup.

 

Crowder, much like Howard, signed a 2 million dollar deal of which 1.8 is guaranteed. These aren't Jacob Hollister situations (where he signed a 1.12 of which only 150k was guaranteed). There's no point in releasing them. They're already paid for regardless.

 

1 year guaranteed deals doesn't affect future cap so there is no penalty cutting them. While it doesn't help the team to release them, it's also not a reason to keep them either.

 

In the Bills situation, they're not thinking about cap savings, its about who will help the team win. The did this last year where they had to cut roster spots in other positions to keep extra in others.

 

Mckenzie moved past his gadget-player status when he filled in for Beasley last year. He is definitely considered the starter, especially since he signed an extension while Crowder is only here 1 year. Crowder is the player that has to prove he deserves the spot.

 

Austin might take the spot from both of them.

[Logic]

2 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

I’ve been following this thread daily, and there are a few perspectives I’m a little surprised by on here.

 

Gabriel Davis:

There’s been a narrative on here and in the media that the Bills will be “taking a risk” with Davis as the #2WR. I think we could all see his potential at the beginning of ’21, and I feel like it’s clear that he developed into exactly that. He has a great catch radius, and can win contested targets. His separation improved. The third-down sideline throw to Davis where his toes are inbounds, and he is catching the ball as he is falling out of bounds was a weekly occurrence, and impossible to defend against. IMO, Davis ended the season a legit #2, and I don’t see why that would be a risk. We know who he is.

 

Beasley vs. Crowder:

Looking at Beasley’s numbers for the ’21 season, I was actually surprised that his production hadn’t fallen off more than it did. He had more targets, but fewer receptions, yards, and TDs from the previous season. And, I think the biggest falloff for him was his ability to get separation.

 

Beasley had Tony Romo and Dak Prescott throwing him the ball for most of his career, but he didn’t have his career-high season until 2020 with Josh Allen. Crowder has had crap QBs, on crap teams, throwing him the ball his entire career, and his production was very similar to Beasley’s in Dallas.

 

If Crowder is given a similar role to Beasley’s, I think it’s reasonable to predict that Crowder will have a career season in Buffalo as well. Hopefully, he can stay healthy.

 

Austin vs. Stevenson vs. Hodgins vs. Kumerow vs. The Rest of the Bubble WRs:

The arguments for depth WRs is always pretty amusing this time of year, and there seems to be no shortage of table-pounding this time around.

 

I don’t think Kumerow belongs in the same conversation as the rest of the bubble WRs. I agree with @GunnerBill that Kumerow’s main competition is Taiwan Jones as a special teamer, although I don’t agree that they can’t both make the team. Jones has zero value as a RB, but Kumerow does have value as a WR, even though he had a couple notable drops last season that dropped that value.

 

I am mystified by the table-pounding over Hodgins, and Stevenson. Stevenson stinks on ice. The best thing we have ever heard about Hodgins was a blithe compliment during his rookie training camp from Diggs about how well he (and Davis) had learned the playbook. At least Duke Williams had a compelling backstory. I think Tanner Gentry has a better chance of making the roster than these two.

 

Opinions on Austin are all over the board, and the most intriguing, IMO. My initial thought was that he would be camp competition for P/KR— perhaps to help elevate Shakir’s return game— and would have very little chance of making the 53. Maybe he'd be a veteran on the PS? But, reports out of OTAs (they certainly gave him plenty of reps), the timing of his acquisition, and frankly his press conferences, have me wondering…

 

 

 

Good post, and I agree on all counts.

The one thing I'll say on Austin is this: When the pads aren't on and contact isn't really being made, I EXPECT guys like Tavon Austin and Isaiah McKenzie to be undefendable. Their quickness and suddenness is really hard for even the best cornerbacks to defend if they're not allowed to really put their hands on them, and based on how gentle modern OTAs are forced to be, make no mistake -- the cornerbacks' hands are tied.

The real test for Tavon Austin -- and for McKenzie, while we're at it -- is how they do in camp when the contact gets ratcheted up and our corners are allowed to press them. If Austin is still getting open and making catches all over the field come training camp and preseason, I'll concede that maybe he really deserves a spot on this roster. Lord knows the Bills could seemingly do worse at WR6 than Tavon Austin. 

[BillsFanForever19]

35 minutes ago, unbillievable said:

 

1 year guaranteed deals doesn't affect future cap so there is no penalty cutting them. While it doesn't help the team to release them, it's also not a reason to keep them either.

 

There is no "penalty" in cutting them. But you've also just paid 5 million dollars and received nothing in return. There's no point in cutting someone that you've already paid for practically in full. 

[unbillievable]

10 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

There is no "penalty" in cutting them. But you've also just paid 5 million dollars and received nothing in return. There's no point in cutting someone that you've already paid for practically in full. 

Unless they want to keep a better player in another position.

 

Keeping players because of the sunk cost is a bad idea. They might keep Stevensen because of the draft pick too, then. They weren't afraid to cut Corey Coleman.

Edited June 18, 2022 by unbillievable

[BillsFanForever19]

2 hours ago, unbillievable said:

Unless they want to keep a better player in another position.

 

Keeping players because of the sunk cost is a bad idea. They might keep Stevensen because of the draft pick too, then. They weren't afraid to cut Corey Coleman.

 

If you think that Marquez Stevenson is not only better than Jamison Crowder, but worth eating 2.8 of Crowder's 3 million on top of it, you need a SERIOUS reality check. They didn't even use the guy as a WR last season when he was already dressing for the team. They knew he was on the roster and signed Jamison Crowder to 3 million. And then went out and drafted Khalil Shakir and signed Tavon Austin. What does that say to their faith in him? He's reportedly continued to show issues holding on to the ball in OTA's. Like, are you related to Marquez Stevenson or something?

 

Teams do not sign players to fully guaranteed deals and then cut them before the regular season unless there's an injury, some sort of personal issue, or he's just not grasping the playbook. Comparing Jamison Crowder's body of work to Corey Coleman and the flier we took on him in the middle of training camp is a laughable comparison.

Edited June 18, 2022 by BillsFanForever19

[Rico]

17 hours ago, unbillievable said:

 

I think the surprise cut will either be Crowder or OJ Howard.

 

Drafting Shakir AND Cook makes having a backup slot WR unnecessary. Crowder can save himself by out-playing McKenzie for the starting job.

 

However, they might keep 7 WR if Howard continues to disappoint. Also, If Austin is not fielding punts or kickoffs in pre-season, he's not making the team at all.

 

Stevenson's speed will get him a look from other teams if he's on the PS. Austin and Kumerow are probably safer being stashed there.

 

Crowder at 1 year, $2M is extremely expendable if he doesn't shine in the pre-season.

[Alphadawg7]

On 6/15/2022 at 6:27 PM, IronMaidenBills said:

Give me your list predictions. Let’s see what the consensus is. 
 

Diggs

Davis

McKenzie

Crowder

Austin

Shakir 

Hodgins/Kumerow  the 7th WR battle imo. 

 
Did you list them in order?  Cuz no way McKenzie is our 3rd WR over Crowder come week 1.  
 

I don’t understand why every season people think McKenzie is going to get a ton of touches.  It never happens.  They signed Crowder to take Beasley snaps and Shakir is the future at that spot.  McKenzie likely won’t finish higher than 5th in touches this year at WR unless injuries force him on the field more.  I like him, but he is not going to see a lot of touches this year again.

[Alphadawg7]

17 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Howard has no barring on WR. He was given 3.5 million, of which 3.2 is guaranteed. You need to have more than one TE on your team. Howard isn't going anywhere.

 

I love McKenzie. But I think the idea of him starting over Crowder is crazy talk. He'll be used the same way he always has. A gadget player that gets more slot time than your normal backup.

 

Crowder, much like Howard, signed a 2 million dollar deal of which 1.8 is guaranteed. These aren't Jacob Hollister situations (where he signed a 1.12 of which only 150k was guaranteed). There's no point in releasing them. They're already paid for regardless.

 

Btw, everyone speaks of Marquez Stevenson as having some sort of elite, irreplaceable speed. You're all aware that his 40 time at the Combine was 4.45, right? Not saying that's slow - but if you compare to our other guys, it's not the freakish speed that he's given credit for. And honestly, he looks like a player who plays slower than his timed speed on field:

 

Stefon Diggs - 4.46

Isaiah McKenzie - 4.42

Khalil Shakir - 4.43

Tavon Austin - 4.34

100% agreed.  I don’t get this delusion on this board about McKenzie.  He’s not the starting slot WR, Crowder is and will be unless he has a bad camp.  There is a reason they signed Crowder and drafted Shakir…it’s because McKenzie is their gadget player, not their targeted starting slot.

 

McKenzie will likely not even match the production that he had last year with all these new mouths to feed.  

[HappyDays]

Matt Parrino said on his minicamp recap podcast that he thinks McKenzie could play outside more this year. He made sure to follow that up by saying it wasn't based on anything he saw in camp since he's not allowed to report where players are lined up, but it seems like he was implying he has seen McKenzie lining up outside in OTAs. So here's how the WR depth chart shakes out to me:

 

#1 outside WR - Diggs

#2 outside WR - Davis

Starting slot - Crowder

Hybrid/utility - McKenzie

Crowder's backup - Shakir

McKenzie's backup/punt returner - Austin

 

Then it's just a matter of if they keep Kumerow for special teams.

[Warriorspikes51]

On 6/15/2022 at 12:27 PM, IronMaidenBills said:

Give me your list predictions. Let’s see what the consensus is. 
 

Diggs

Davis

McKenzie

Crowder

Austin

Shakir 

Hodgins/Kumerow  the 7th WR battle imo. 

Only difference for me is Crowder as the #3. Suppose it could be either Isaiah or him getting more snaps based on camp/weekly matchups

 

Tavon Austin could actually have a reasonable impact.

 

I like idea of formation with 

Diggs, Davis, McKenzie lined up at WR

with Austin and Cook in the backfield. 

Edited June 18, 2022 by Warriorspikes51

[Ethan in Cleveland]

On 6/15/2022 at 12:00 PM, SCBills said:

7 WR's

 

Diggs

Davis

Crowder

McKenzie

Shakir

Austin

Kumerow

I agree. They open up a roster spot by getting rid of Gilliam. With Howard and Knox you then get rid of Sweeney.  

Then the decision is how many and which RBs do you keep? 

[FilthyBeast]

I still wouldn't be surprised if this team looks to add another veteran WR at some point between now and the start of the regular season.

 

And if that happens the wildcard for me is still McKenzie in terms of being a 'surprise cut' because I just feel his skill set is over redundant at this point with all the other young WR's we've invested in the last few years.

[MasterStrategist]

On 6/16/2022 at 9:02 PM, JerseyBills said:

Stevenson over Austin. 

I'm telling yall, the kid is going to have a role on this team

I'll support ya man and rooting for Speedy.

 

They clearly brought in Austin to compete with him.  He had 1 bad week at OTAs, but he will have plenty of chances until September.   To quote a Mcdermottism, iron sharpens iron.  Let the best man win that return role and likely 6th/7th WR spot.