Bills minicamp Day 1 &2 observations: James Cook flashes in pass game

[Alphadawg7]

24 minutes ago, njbuff said:

That an awful lot to expect out of a 5th round pick right out of the gate.

He was a guy who could have gone much earlier too.  5th round, 1st round…none of it matters anymore.  Once they hit the field that’s it.  Gabriel Davis made a significant impact as a 4th rounder year 1.  Bills have lots of guys who were mid round picks or later who ended up contributing early.  
 

And I didn’t set the bar that high, I said he would have the 4th most touches out of the WR group, that’s a reasonable expectation.  Which means he’s probably 5th or 6th in receptions on the team with Knox and Cook getting their share too.
 

So for me, draft slots mean nothing anymore, it’s what role they will play.  And I think he will be WR 4 this year essentially, playing that Gabe Davis role when we had 3 guys ahead of him.  
 

McKenzie’s production this year will be similar or worse than last year, just too many mouths to feed now.

 

[folz]

There seemed to be a lot of discussion of Tavon Austin earlier in this thread, so I thought I would post this here:

 

I haven't really followed Tavon Austin's career since his first few seasons, so I looked up his stats to try and get a better picture. This isn't meant as an anti-Tavon post (though the stats might make it look that way), I would love to see him make the team and contribute this season. I was more trying to figure out where and how he might be used/why the Bills brought him on/the reality of him making the 53, etc. I assumed (like most) that it was to return kicks. But, the question is can he still be effective enough there? And/or did they have something else in mind?

 

So, here are some info/stats for assessment:

 

He is 32 years old (does he still have the speed he used to?)

He is not a kickoff returner. In 9 seasons, he has only returned 25 kickoffs (and 18 of those were in his rookie year...so, only 7 KO returns total in the last 8 seasons).

So, he has specifically been a punt returner/backup WR/gadget guy over his career.

 

In his first four years, if you combined total yards from scrimmage (rush/rec) and return yards, he averaged 1,080 yards and almost 6 TDs per year.

In his last five seasons, combined scrimmage and return yards, he only averaged 243 yards and 1 TD/year (granted, two of those seasons he missed a lot of time due to injury---he has missed 27 games over the last 4 years due to injury).

 

In his first 4 years, he had 146 punt returns for an average of 8.7 yards per and almost 1 TD per season.

In his last 5 years, he has had 44 punt returns for an average of 4.8 yards per and no TDs.

 

First 4 years he averaged 411 receiving yards, 242 rushing yards, with 20 total offensive TDs.

His last 5 years, he has averaged 119 yards receiving, 79 yards rushing, with 6 total offensive TDs.

 

His first 5 years in the league, he was used out of the backfield a lot, gaining 1,238 yards and 9 TDs rushing.

 

I'm not sure of all the circumstances he faced over the last five seasons, injuries, strength of special teams he played for, opportunities, etc. But, just looking at the stats, it is hard to see him completely reverting to his earlier form. So, if he makes the 53, I assume it will be for one or all of the following reasons.

 

1. They just want a smart, sure-handed punt returner and aren't too concerned about how many yards he can get per or if he can still break one. They just want security there without having to put a starter in that position (Micah). Maybe they couldn't find anyone better/more experienced than Tavon in FA.

 

2. He is here as that veteran mentor that McDermott likes to have, to coach up some of the young guys (Stevenson, Shakir, etc.) on punt return. Show them how it's done.

 

3. He fits the mold of that versatile, gadget guy. We now have a number of players (McKenzie, Cook, Shakir, Austin) that can all rush out of the backfield, run jet sweeps, run receiving routes, etc. Maybe Dorsey has something new/special in mind with these types of players. And again, Tavon could be here both as injury insurance for that role, and again, to help bring the young guys along in that type of role.

 

So, he seems to be security/insurance and mentor to me. Whether that is enough for a spot on the 53, we'll have to wait and see.

 

 

[3rdand12]

12 hours ago, CEN-CAL17 said:

You say that, and I do like him…. But why is our secondary coach the passing game coordinator?

 

Am i the only person that finds that weird with a rookie OC?

It might be genius. For real .

6 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

There will be outside packages for Cook, but that doesn’t mean he’s going to take the ball up the middle.  That will remain Singletary’s job.

 

Shakir barring injuries will have a tough time getting on the field.  He has stiff competition, and it’s not like McKenzie’s going to willingly relinquish the third receiver role, or Crowder.  I just don’t see him moving up from 5th until injuries happen which are inevitable.  He has a real opportunity to get ST action and may shine there his rookie year.

They will find packages for him. How soon ? Not sure
But you can mark my words Kelly , he will see time on offense 😃

[machine gun kelly]

3/12, I don’t disagree, but he will have to work his way into the lineup was my point.  McD has a history of taking a few games to trust a guy.  As far as McaKenzie, he made an impact late especially against the Pats.  Him dropping returns a couple of times put him in the doghouse.

[3rdand12]

8 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

3/12, I don’t disagree, but he will have to work his way into the lineup was my point.  McD has a history of taking a few games to trust a guy.  As far as McaKenzie, he made an impact late especially against the Pats.  Him dropping returns a couple of times put him in the doghouse.

Oh we agree on both points. Somewhere i had mentioned it might be midseason before he gets on the field, But he will

[njbuff]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

He was a guy who could have gone much earlier too.  5th round, 1st round…none of it matters anymore.  Once they hit the field that’s it.  Gabriel Davis made a significant impact as a 4th rounder year 1.  Bills have lots of guys who were mid round picks or later who ended up contributing early.  
 

And I didn’t set the bar that high, I said he would have the 4th most touches out of the WR group, that’s a reasonable expectation.  Which means he’s probably 5th or 6th in receptions on the team with Knox and Cook getting their share too.
 

So for me, draft slots mean nothing anymore, it’s what role they will play.  And I think he will be WR 4 this year essentially, playing that Gabe Davis role when we had 3 guys ahead of him.  
 

McKenzie’s production this year will be similar or worse than last year, just too many mouths to feed now.

 

I hope your right. The more weapons the better.

[Buffalo716]

24 minutes ago, 3rdand12 said:

It might be genius. For real .

They will find packages for him. How soon ? Not sure
But you can mark my words Kelly , he will see time on offense 😃

He's not the offensive passing game coordinator LOL

 

He's the defensive passing game coordinator.. I can't believe people think that still

[3rdand12]

43 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

He's not the offensive passing game coordinator LOL

 

He's the defensive passing game coordinator.. I can't believe people think that still

I know. I was just breaking blss

[The Dean]

8 hours ago, Not at the table Karlos said:

Because it's a way to stash players you don't want to cut

 

It's "a way" as you say. But it isn't a good way if you REALLY want to keep the player. Shakir would be gone in a heartbeat. If you really want to keep him, he has to be  "injured".  PUP or IR

 

 

[Warriorspikes51]

Diggs

Davis

Crowder

McKenzie

Austin

Shakir

Kumerow or Hodgins

 

pretty clear WR depth chart in my opinion

 

hopefully one of Austin, Shakir or both have a good enough camp to warrant being rotated in on different formations.

 

James Cook will likely be moved out wide half a dozen plays per game too

Edited June 18, 2022 by Warriorspikes51

[The Dean]

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

People every year think McKenzie is going to have a role then barely sees the field all year.  So I think once again people are over estimating how many snaps McKenzie will get.  And I think Shakir will end the season with the 4th most touches at WR and not too far behind Crowder.  Next year, he will fully take over for Crowder and be the full time starting slot WR.  

 

True. On the flip side every year people predict McKenzie will be cut. That's not happening either. Lil Dirty will have a role on the 2022 and I believe it will be an even bigger role than last 

[ColoradoBills]

2 hours ago, The Dean said:

 

True. On the flip side every year people predict McKenzie will be cut. That's not happening either. Lil Dirty will have a role on the 2022 and I believe it will be an even bigger role than last 

 

 

Agree.  Lil Dirty will be WR4 and probably get around 25-30% offensive snaps.  More if Crowder is injured/nicked up.

One other thing about McKenzie is his high catch %.  50 catches on 60 targets the last 2 years.

He needs to be tested a little more than previous years to show his true worth.

Everyone should know they did give him a 2 year deal this time around.

[Beerball]

On 6/15/2022 at 4:40 PM, IronMaidenBills said:

If it was Davis had 4 TDs, the narrative would be he’s going to destroy the league this year and everyone would be clapping for it. I’m just giving credit where credit is due. 

I mean, why didn’t Shakir have 4 TDs, afterall it’s basically meaningless and everyone should be doing it. Right? 

Thank you Mrs. Austin.

[Beerball]

On 6/15/2022 at 8:01 PM, MJS said:

He has to get cut to be put on the practice squad. Another team would sign him for sure.

148th drafted players sometimes don't make the cut.

On 6/15/2022 at 9:27 PM, ScottLaw said:

The dudes a scrub… I’ll be somewhat surprised(and alarmed) if he makes the roster…. 

Common man, it's too early to backtrack. Lucky to make the roster and somewhat surprised and alarmed don't mesh. Stick to your guns.

[Beerball]

On 6/17/2022 at 2:01 PM, Back2Buff said:

 

Highly doubt it.  The kid has a huge learning curve to begin with coming from a very weak conference.  He also fell to the 5th round for a reason.  Can late round picks make it?!  Absolutely, but it usually takes a very long time.

 

There is 0.1% chance that plays are even being made for him.  If he makes the team, he won't even be dressed without injuries.

Now you've gone too far.

 

He is making the team.

Who would you dress instead? 

[Alphadawg7]

10 hours ago, The Dean said:

 

True. On the flip side every year people predict McKenzie will be cut. That's not happening either. Lil Dirty will have a role on the 2022 and I believe it will be an even bigger role than last 

Im not suggesting McKenzie will get cut, I like him and so does the front office and team.  I am saying his role will be the same, and that role has basically been the gadget guy as essentially a WR 5/6 when it comes to touches.  

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Im not suggesting McKenzie will get cut, I like him and so does the front office and team.  I am saying his role will be the same, and that role has basically been the gadget guy as essentially a WR 5/6 when it comes to touches.  

 

This may well be right but it sounds like he has been the first guy in the slot during OTAs and mini camp. He is obviously ahead of Crowder in terms of knowing the scheme so maybe that isn't surprising but I don't think it is a lock that Crowder wins that starting slot job. The one thing Isaiah has always had is chemistry and trust with Josh. I think that is a genuine camp battle. 

[Alphadawg7]

12 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

This may well be right but it sounds like he has been the first guy in the slot during OTAs and mini camp. He is obviously ahead of Crowder in terms of knowing the scheme so maybe that isn't surprising but I don't think it is a lock that Crowder wins that starting slot job. The one thing Isaiah has always had is chemistry and trust with Josh. I think that is a genuine camp battle. 

They aren’t going to just hand Crowder the job before he even knows the playbook.  But Crowder is the better player, and once preseason concludes he will be the starting slot receiver come week 1 barring injuries of course.  They signed Crowder and drafted Shakir for a reason, because they don’t see McKenzie as an every down slot player.  Beane would have taken Shakir earlier too had he had not traded that pick.  They are high on him, and they should be.  
 

You yourself even previously said you thought Shakir would be the starting slot WR before seasons end.  McKenzie chances to be the starting slot WR without injuries helping that happen are pretty slim IMHO.  And I like McKenzie, just he’s gonna continue to be more of a gadget player come regular season.

[Robert Paulson]

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

They aren’t going to just hand Crowder the job before he even knows the playbook.  But Crowder is the better player, and once preseason concludes he will be the starting slot receiver come week 1 barring injuries of course.  They signed Crowder and drafted Shakir for a reason, because they don’t see McKenzie as an every down slot player.  Beane would have taken Shakir earlier too had he had not traded that pick.  They are high on him, and they should be.  
 

You yourself even previously said you thought Shakir would be the starting slot WR before seasons end.  McKenzie chances to be the starting slot WR without injuries helping that happen are pretty slim IMHO.  And I like McKenzie, just he’s gonna continue to be more of a gadget player come regular season.

I think we may see a man vs zone split between Lil Dirty and Crowder-week to week match ups

 

Edited June 19, 2022 by Robert Paulson

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

They aren’t going to just hand Crowder the job before he even knows the playbook.  But Crowder is the better player, and once preseason concludes he will be the starting slot receiver come week 1 barring injuries of course.  They signed Crowder and drafted Shakir for a reason, because they don’t see McKenzie as an every down slot player.  Beane would have taken Shakir earlier too had he had not traded that pick.  They are high on him, and they should be.  
 

You yourself even previously said you thought Shakir would be the starting slot WR before seasons end.  McKenzie chances to be the starting slot WR without injuries helping that happen are pretty slim IMHO.  And I like McKenzie, just he’s gonna continue to be more of a gadget player come regular season.

 

I do think Shakir will be the starting slot by the season's end. My question is more about who the starting slot is week 1 and I think that is a genuine camp battle. It could be Crowder. I have always liked him going back to Washington but I am not as sure as you are that it is a lock. 

51 minutes ago, Robert Paulson said:

I think we may see a man vs zone split between Lil Dirty and Crowder-week to week match ups

 

 

This is also a possibility IMO that they are essentially a time share with Crowder getting more work v heavy zone and McKenzie's speed as a man beater.