PFF 10 top coaches...LOL

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

They ended up winning 9 games.........but with 6-10 metrics.  

 

Basically the OPPOSITE of what they were in 2021 where they had 14-15 win/NFL best metrics..........but just an 11-6 record. 

 

2018 ended up being a reset year..........but it wasn't by design.    They mostly just misplayed it that way.    They spent a ton in UFA and got nothing for it.    Prior decisions like Kelvin Benjamin in 2017 and others backfired.    People act like they knew they were going to stink in 2018........it was the outcome,  but not by design.

 

On 2018 I think it was somewhere between the two. I do think they expected to take some lumps with Josh and a step back from 9 wins but in the end winning 6 with that roster became a real acheivement. Beane has acknowledged himself he did a "terrible job" with the offensive roster in particular in 2018. That offense was worthy of a 70s expansion franchise.

[Orlando Buffalo]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The Bills took a 10 win roster to training camp in 2017.    The .500 Rex teams should have won 12 or more games in both years.    They had been pretty stacked and were a top 5 roster.

 

Losing Gilmore and Woods certainly hurt but Hyde and Poyer were big additions to a team whose biggest weakness might have been the safety position.    The Bills were still positioned to be good going into TC,  regardless of what the mostly horrific talent evaluators on TBD/TSW believed.  

 

McBeane then subtracted Watkins and Dareus in the coming months....annihilating first their passing game and then their solid run defense..........and by midseason their roster had been transformed into a below average one and their OC made it much worse by being awful at his job.

 

The new regime didn't work miracles with a bad roster.........they made it into a bad roster with their choices.    They simply got lucky reaching the playoffs with the worst point differential of any team to do so in 30 years.

 

Then their relatively strong offensive line group.......who had lead an NFL best rushing attack in 2015-2016.........was decimated in the 2018 offseason.........and they had a truly franchise-worst-ever kinda' free agency period........officially cementing them as a bad roster.

 

 But it's important to note that the difference between good and bad rosters now can be just 2-3 players.    Free agency has leveled the overall playing field considerably.    Good draft picks in 2017 and good first rounders in 2018-2019 turned into very productive players and the roster got back in the black in 2019. 

 

 

I know you are just trolling when you say that losing Dareus was a big loss. Also 3 players does not make a bad team good, unless one is a QB. No other position individually matter that much.

[Doc]

3 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

They ended up winning 9 games.........but with 6-10 metrics.  

 

Basically the OPPOSITE of what they were in 2021 where they had 14-15 win/NFL best metrics..........but just an 11-6 record. 

 

2018 ended up being a reset year..........but it wasn't by design.    They mostly just misplayed it that way.    They spent a ton in UFA and got nothing for it.    Prior decisions like Kelvin Benjamin in 2017 and others backfired.    People act like they knew they were going to stink in 2018........it was the outcome,  but not by design.

 

With respect to 2017, the only thing that matters is that they made the playoffs, not statistics.  After 17 years of futility and with a new regime who seemed to be tanking, it was a great sign of things to come.

 

As for 2018, they weren't going far with a raw, inaccurate rookie, especially with an OL decimated by the unexpected loss of their 2 best players.  And the dead cap was a necessary evil of the needed purging the roster of the aforementioned players.

[BADOLBILZ]

3 hours ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

I know you are just trolling when you say that losing Dareus was a big loss. Also 3 players does not make a bad team good, unless one is a QB. No other position individually matter that much.

 

Trolling?   Dareus was tremendous at 1T for the 2017 Bills,  who started out playing and winning with a stout defense.   When he went from Buffalo to Jacksonville the Jaguars went from the bottom of the league in run D to the top of it.   The Bills proceeded to have the worst 3 game defensive stretch in team history.   The Jags then reached the AFC Championship game.   Dareus had a tremendous playoffs.......especially dominant in their win at Pittsburgh.   And yes, in a matchup league.......3 players can be the difference between winning and losing games.

[GoBills808]

36 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Trolling?   Dareus was tremendous at 1T for the 2017 Bills,  who started out playing and winning with a stout defense.   When he went from Buffalo to Jacksonville the Jaguars went from the bottom of the league in run D to the top of it.   The Bills proceeded to have the worst 3 game defensive stretch in team history.   The Jags then reached the AFC Championship game.   Dareus had a tremendous playoffs.......especially dominant in their win at Pittsburgh.   And yes, in a matchup league.......3 players can be the difference between winning and losing games.

100% on Dareus. In his prime circa 2014 he was an absolute nightmare.

[BADOLBILZ]

29 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

And yet many here expected a repeat 9 win season or so in 2018.😅

 

They completely flubbed the QB situation ahead of Allen… and they made some really strange personnel decisions… the infatuation with Vlad Ducasse is one example

 

 

They brought in AJ McCarron.   The thought being that he was an ascending young QB who had been blocked by Andy Dalton.    Remember when Cinci had a high draft pick in hand for McCarron the prior season and they didn't trade him?   It was thought he might score in UFA.   Instead he landed with the Bills for $5M and people thought Beane was pretty shrewd and had stolen a better QB than Tyrod.

 

Then after Peterman looked good in the preseason.........as he tended to do in preseason and practice..........they traded McCarron.

 

We have seen some pretty crazy miscalculations but the Peterman love was absolutely insane.   The plan was NOT to have Allen in the starting lineup in week 1..........but Peterman was so awful it happened.

[Doc]

10 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

And yet many here expected a repeat 9 win season or so in 2018.😅

 

They completely flubbed the QB situation ahead of Allen… and they made some really strange personnel decisions… the infatuation with Vlad Ducasse is one example

 

Sure they did.  Most knew in 2017 that 2018 was going to be tough with the amount of dead cap there was going to be after getting rid of the divas and most were fine with it because it was the start of a new regime.  Then they went and made the playoffs!  And on top of that they lost their 2 best OL.  Suffice it to say only maybe a handful of people thought they could win 9 games. 

 

9 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

They brought in AJ McCarron.   The thought being that he was an ascending young QB who had been blocked by Andy Dalton.    Remember when Cinci had a high draft pick in hand for McCarron the prior season and they didn't trade him?   It was thought he might score in UFA.   Instead he landed with the Bills for $5M and people thought Beane was pretty shrewd and had stolen a better QB than Tyrod.

 

Then after Peterman looked good in the preseason.........as he tended to do in preseason and practice..........they traded McCarron.

 

We have seen some pretty crazy miscalculations but the Peterman love was absolutely insane.   The plan was NOT to have Allen in the starting lineup in week 1..........but Peterman was so awful it happened.

 

True but it ended up thrusting Josh into the starting role earlier than expect, and that proved to be the best thing of all. 

[Orlando Buffalo]

9 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Trolling?   Dareus was tremendous at 1T for the 2017 Bills,  who started out playing and winning with a stout defense.   When he went from Buffalo to Jacksonville the Jaguars went from the bottom of the league in run D to the top of it.   The Bills proceeded to have the worst 3 game defensive stretch in team history.   The Jags then reached the AFC Championship game.   Dareus had a tremendous playoffs.......especially dominant in their win at Pittsburgh.   And yes, in a matchup league.......3 players can be the difference between winning and losing games.

I was being on obnoxious by stating your a troll, which I should not have because Dareus, when he cared, was great. His problem was once he got his big money his effort was lacking. As for the three players, except QB, who makes  the Lions or Texans or even Seattle great this year? The bottom 5 teams in the league are missing many pieces. Now if you are simply saying to jump from 8-9 to 10-7 then three players can make a difference absolutely 

[Doc]

1 minute ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

I was being on obnoxious by stating your a troll, which I should not have because Dareus, when he cared, was great. His problem was once he got his big money his effort was lacking. As for the three players, except QB, who makes  the Lions or Texans or even Seattle great this year? The bottom 5 teams in the league are missing many pieces. Now if you are simply saying to jump from 8-9 to 10-7 then three players can make a difference absolutely 

 

Getting rid of Dareus' bad influence on the rest of the team was more important than his sporadic good play in 2017.   And any help he provided the Jags in 2017  quickly dissipated the following years.

 

 

[Doc]

2 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Nah. There were plenty who thought McCarron could duplicate what Tyrod did the year before…. And then when Peterman emerged in the preseason the thought was they could get even more out of the QB position…. Then week 1 happened.😅

 

Even if true, many thought the Bills would be the worst team in 2017.  And they instead made the playoffs.  And they've made the playoffs 4 out of the past 5 years.  And not sure what's so funny about week 1, since that was the start of the Josh era.

[ganesh]

On 6/7/2022 at 6:51 AM, MJS said:

Funny, because McDermott took a below average roster, including a poor QB, to the playoffs in his first year as a head coach.

Yeah..On the same vein according to their analytics model, they handicapped McDermott due to the Super stars at QB, WR, DE and CB. 

[BADOLBILZ]

14 hours ago, Doc said:

 

With respect to 2017, the only thing that matters is that they made the playoffs, not statistics.  After 17 years of futility and with a new regime who seemed to be tanking, it was a great sign of things to come.

 

As for 2018, they weren't going far with a raw, inaccurate rookie, especially with an OL decimated by the unexpected loss of their 2 best players.  And the dead cap was a necessary evil of the needed purging the roster of the aforementioned players.

 

 

The moral of 2017 is that it really is better to be lucky than good.

 

I'm not saying their regime certainly fails if they start out 6-10.........but squeaking into the playoffs with the worst point differential in decades......... after controversially handicapping the roster by getting rid of the entire core of good young players from the past regime......who then mostly EXCELLED for actual SB contenders........and then the whole Tyrod/Peterman debacle.........that really would have been a bad look for the new regime to a very veteran team who McD was trying to preach his message to.

 

And if the vets don't buy in.......the young players don't either.

 

Whether your message resonates with your team or not is very much about the optics and wins and losses.    

 

There is little questioning that McBeane had an incredibly fortuitous start.   Between the one-score fortune of 2017(which 2021 took back) and getting a crack at ALL of Mahomes/Watson/Allen/Jackson in the course of 2 consecutive drafts.

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

I was being on obnoxious by stating your a troll, which I should not have because Dareus, when he cared, was great. His problem was once he got his big money his effort was lacking. As for the three players, except QB, who makes  the Lions or Texans or even Seattle great this year? The bottom 5 teams in the league are missing many pieces. Now if you are simply saying to jump from 8-9 to 10-7 then three players can make a difference absolutely 

 

 

What happened with Dareus is a bit more nuanced than "got paid, stopped trying" that is often uttered.

 

Dareus was a pass rushing force and Rex came in and insisted on making him into a two gapping nose tackle.

 

His initial drop-off coincided with his payday..........but it was as much about the perception of his play than his actual play.........he was a good NT but there weren't plays to be made there.

 

Then he was a really good 1 tech for McDermott.........he was playing really good football for the Bills in 2017.........everything Bills fans have lamented about not having at 1T were the things he was doing.

 

That carried over to the Jaguars where he was tremendous.

 

He was actually really good in 2018 too but the Jags fell off a cliff.     I know some people hate PFF.........but 2018 Star Lotulelei had an abysmal 55 grade while Dareus had a 78 grade(which is very good).

 

Dareus got injured in 2019 and hasn't played since..........but the perception that he was just a bum who sucked after he got paid isn't accurate.   He went from an All Pro pass rushing DT to a very good run stopper.

 

And another perception is that the Bills saved a bunch of money getting rid of him..........in reality the base salaries on the back end of his deal were quite manageable.......in the $6M-$8M range and he actually took a pay cut with Jax after a good 2018 season.   The Bills instead spent $40M+ for 3 seasons of Star Lotulelei.   

[Doc]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

The moral of 2017 is that it really is better to be lucky than good.

 

I'm not saying their regime certainly fails if they start out 6-10.........but squeaking into the playoffs with the worst point differential in decades......... after controversially handicapping the roster by getting rid of the entire core of good young players from the past regime......who then mostly EXCELLED for actual SB contenders........and then the whole Tyrod/Peterman debacle.........that really would have been a bad look for the new regime to a very veteran team who McD was trying to preach his message to.

 

And if the vets don't buy in.......the young players don't either.

 

Whether your message resonates with your team or not is very much about the optics and wins and losses.    

 

There is little questioning that McBeane had an incredibly fortuitous start.   Between the one-score fortune of 2017(which 2021 took back) and getting a crack at ALL of Mahomes/Watson/Allen/Jackson in the course of 2 consecutive drafts.

 

Most successful people are.  And obviously McBeane were both, judging by the fact that the team has made the playoffs 4 out of their 5 years in Buffalo and are considered SB favorites this year.

 

As for 2017, I have no doubt McBeane consulted with the team leaders (Kyle, Jerry and Lorenzo at least) and they identified the players who didn't fit their vision.  So even if they went 6-10, it didn't matter as long as there was some progression.  And everything hinged on getting Josh in 2018 and the time it afforded them even if they didn't make the playoffs in 2017.

[BADOLBILZ]

13 hours ago, Doc said:

 

Most successful people are.  And obviously McBeane were both, judging by the fact that the team has made the playoffs 4 out of their 5 years in Buffalo and are considered SB favorites this year.

 

As for 2017, I have no doubt McBeane consulted with the team leaders (Kyle, Jerry and Lorenzo at least) and they identified the players who didn't fit their vision.  So even if they went 6-10, it didn't matter as long as there was some progression.  And everything hinged on getting Josh in 2018 and the time it afforded them even if they didn't make the playoffs in 2017.

 

 

Fortune didn't shine on Bill Belichick in his first HC job with the Browns...........he inherited a bad QB situation and didn't get any breaks to fix it...........then the organization went into complete turmoil the summer before his last season and he got fired at the end of the season.    

 

And he's arguably the greatest HC in NFL history.

 

So some successful people aren't always lucky.

 

Doug Whaley had similar misfortune getting a job with no QB.........having the outgoing GM pick the QB in a bad draft for QB's..........and then not being allowed any control over the 3 HC decisions and even more schemes he had to build for.    

 

Fortune was a huge boost to the McBeane regime.

 

As for your second point..........the players that McBeane identified as the most important leaders were actually Eric Wood and LeSean McCoy.   Two vocal guys who, combined, spoke to everyone in the locker room.   The guys who just go about their business and the potential locker room litigators.    Both got paid that summer to pimp "the process".   I don't think they needed much input from players to decide who to move on from.    The template they used was very clear........anyone with contractual leverage was a threat to "The Process".   That's why it was all the talented young core that they let go.    It wasn't about quality of character.   It's just easier to get people without options to do exactly what they are asked to.

Edited June 12, 2022 by BADOLBILZ

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

This was done by an INTERN. 

 

 

 

[Doc]

4 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Fortune didn't shine on Bill Belichick in his first HC job with the Browns...........he inherited a bad QB situation and didn't get any breaks to fix it...........then the organization went into complete turmoil the summer before his last season and he got fired at the end of the season.    

 

And he's arguably the greatest HC in NFL history.

 

So some successful people aren't always lucky.

 

Doug Whaley had similar misfortune getting a job with no QB.........having the outgoing GM pick the QB in a bad draft for QB's..........and then not being allowed any control over the 3 HC decisions and even more schemes he had to build for.    

 

Fortune was a huge boost to the McBeane regime.

 

As for your second point..........the players that McBeane identified as the most important leaders were actually Eric Wood and LeSean McCoy.   Two vocal guys who, combined, spoke to everyone in the locker room.   The guys who just go about their business and the potential locker room litigators.    Both got paid that summer to pimp "the process".   I don't think they needed much input from players to decide who to move on from.    The template they used was very clear........anyone with contractual leverage was a threat to "The Process".   That's why it was all the talented young core that they let go.    It wasn't about quality of character.   It's just easier to get people without options to do exactly what they are asked to.

 

True about Belicheat's (a great defensive coach) first go-around.  His second one, he absolutely got lucky.  Incredibly lucky.

 

Whaley...I could maybe make an argument.  The 2013-2016 drafts were all bad for QBs (except for Carr) so that was bad luck.  It would have been interesting to see what he would have done in 2017 had he been given control of the draft.  Would he have picked Mahomes, like he claims he would have?  But no team has tried to hire him as their GM since so...

 

And regardless of who McBeane may or may not have consulted in the locker room and whether they made the playoffs in 2017, getting Josh in 2018 was all they needed.  And then they made the playoffs in 2019, their 3rd season there and they weren't getting fired before then.

[Mr. WEO]

On 6/7/2022 at 9:30 AM, cle23 said:

I'm not saying I agree with them, but they are basing it on if they had an average roster.  So it's not a ranking on how the coaches have performed with their given team, but how they THINK they'd perform if every coach was given the exact same roster of average players.

 

You will get warning points for adding any facts or nuance to this discussion.

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, Doc said:

 

True about Belicheat's (a great defensive coach) first go-around.  His second one, he absolutely got lucky.  Incredibly lucky.

 

Whaley...I could maybe make an argument.  The 2013-2016 drafts were all bad for QBs (except for Carr) so that was bad luck.  It would have been interesting to see what he would have done in 2017 had he been given control of the draft.  Would he have picked Mahomes, like he claims he would have?  But no team has tried to hire him as their GM since so...

 

And regardless of who McBeane may or may not have consulted in the locker room and whether they made the playoffs in 2017, getting Josh in 2018 was all they needed.  And then they made the playoffs in 2019, their 3rd season there and they weren't getting fired before then.

 

 

Belichick took a 6-7 win Browns team to 11 wins and a playoff birth with Vinny Tetseverde, Leroy Hoard and Derek Alexander running the Offense (#11 in points scored).  Maybe that was just lucky too?  Or a magic trick?

 

And as for lucking into Brady---NE won 3 SB with a JAG studded Offense before legit world talent (Moss--zero rings) and Groink showed up.  Was Brady that good right off the bus (hint--you sure didn't;'t think so), or was it great coaching?

 

 

[Doc]

4 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

Belichick took a 6-7 win Browns team to 11 wins and a playoff birth with Vinny Tetseverde, Leroy Hoard and Derek Alexander running the Offense (#11 in points scored).  Maybe that was just lucky too?  Or a magic trick?

 

And as for lucking into Brady---NE won 3 SB with a JAG studded Offense before legit world talent (Moss--zero rings) and Groink showed up.  Was Brady that good right off the bus (hint--you sure didn't;'t think so), or was it great coaching?

 

Wow, great, 1 winning season in Cleveland.  They went back to 5-11 the following year with the same guys...

 

So you're saying he didn't get lucky with Brady?