Allen tied for 5th lowest checkdown rate in NFL

[TheBrownBear]

12 hours ago, Tom Donahoe, GM said:

Tied for 5th lowest, according to the link in the OP

 

1) Hurts

2) Tua

3) Mullns

T5) Allen, Trubiski, Mayfield

Yikes.  If that list isn't a sign that Josh needs to check down more often, I don't know what is.

[Big Turk]

12 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Excellent post

 

Thanks! Hopefully the mods don't determine I am not following some "rule" by making this a separate thread. 

 

Seems like one in particular has been on some power trip lately.

[Billy Claude]

7 hours ago, TheBrownBear said:

Yikes.  If that list isn't a sign that Josh needs to check down more often, I don't know what is.

 

 

The full PFF article notes that although Allen has one of the lowest check down rates during the last two years (4.6%) -- the rate is twice as high as it was during his first two years (2.3%) when he had lowest check down rate in the league.  Their analysis was based on two years of data so Allen's check down rate last year might be higher than 4.6%.

 

So he is adjusting.

 

Edited June 1, 2022 by Billy Claude

[eball]

7 hours ago, Logic said:

That IS the one actually!

I described the play poorly. But Josh’s body language on that throw is funny. That Pierre fella that Tweeted has it right. Josh no likey the checkdown. “Favre says always go for the touchdown, coach.”

 

That was also a 28-10 game in the 4th quarter.  If my QB isn’t looking to score, and quickly, there’s something wrong.

 

[Big Turk]

12 hours ago, msw2112 said:

 

Unfortunately, all it takes is one bad hit and Allen could be out for multiple weeks or the season.  He's a big, strong kid, but if he gets hit right on the knee or in the head, he could get seriously injured.  Let's hope the addition of Cook will help with screens and dump-offs and that the addition of Kromer will improve the OL play and run game so that Allen doesn't have to run as much as he has in the past.

 

Every player is one hit away from being out for the year.  I'd rather have it happen when Allen sees it coming versus when he doesn't if I had my choice since I put a lot of faith in Allen's ability to either make the defender miss or limit how bad the hit is.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

20 hours ago, Big Turk said:

Only 4.6% of his throws are checkdown, tied with Mayfield as the lowest in the NFL...nice disparity between all the Captain Checkdowns we have had over the years.

 

Surprised Tua isn't in the highest...he actually is second lowest.

 

Also hilarious Carr is in the highest category because Patriots doubled his checkdown repeatedly in their last game they played and Carr didn't know what to do 😂

 

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/pff-bills-qb-josh-allen-144520453.html

 

 

 

Tons of RPOs in their offense last year.  A lot of first read short passes - but they aren't checkdowns.  Not sure how PFF came up with the way of determining that.  

[Big Turk]

16 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

Tons of RPOs in their offense last year.  A lot of first read short passes - but they aren't checkdowns.  Not sure how PFF came up with the way of determining that.  

 

Yeah...kind of like Roethlisberger throwing passes to Najae Harris or Diontae Johnson within 1-2 yards of the line of scrimmage on quick slants or swing passes to get the ball out quickly...not a checkdown but also not pushing the ball down the field either.

 

I would imagine there has to be a time element to how they determined it since a checkdown is a pass to someone short when you determine nobody is open deeper, which means you need time to go through progressions. 

 

If the play design is to throw a 1 yard pass, that's not really a checkdown, but it is kind of the same type of effect as one.

[CircleTheWagons99]

PFF? Come on already. 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

22 hours ago, Big Turk said:

Only 4.6% of his throws are checkdown, tied with Mayfield as the lowest in the NFL...nice disparity between all the Captain Checkdowns we have had over the years.

 

Surprised Tua isn't in the highest...he actually is second lowest.

 

Also hilarious Carr is in the highest category because Patriots doubled his checkdown repeatedly in their last game they played and Carr didn't know what to do 😂

 

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/pff-bills-qb-josh-allen-144520453.html

 

 

Re Tua, I bet they define a check down as a pass less than x yards to a RB, or at least as the second read.  Tua was throwing 3-yard lasers to his receivers as his first read. 

[DCofNC]

22 hours ago, Big Turk said:

Only 4.6% of his throws are checkdown, tied with Mayfield as the lowest in the NFL...nice disparity between all the Captain Checkdowns we have had over the years.

 

Surprised Tua isn't in the highest...he actually is second lowest.

 

Also hilarious Carr is in the highest category because Patriots doubled his checkdown repeatedly in their last game they played and Carr didn't know what to do 😂

 

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/pff-bills-qb-josh-allen-144520453.html

 

 

Is it a check down if you are already throwing as far as you can?  Might make a difference for Tua.

[Logic]

3 hours ago, eball said:

 

That was also a 28-10 game in the 4th quarter.  If my QB isn’t looking to score, and quickly, there’s something wrong.

 

Fair enough.

 

Sadly, there ARE QBs who are still playing it safe at that point. I’ll never forget Trent Edwards running out of bounds short of the sticks on 4th down at the end of a game the Bills were losing.

 

I’m just glad we have a guy who loves to go deep and has to be convinced to check down, rather than the opposite.

[Patrick Duffy]

Lol, yeah Allen isn't looking to check down very often and I don't really see that changing all that much. 

[BillsFanSD]

Allen tried to do too much during his first couple of seasons, and he had quite a few silly-looking plays as a result.  Things like getting flushed out of the pocket and completely turning his back on the defense, refusing the throw the ball away when the play is obviously busted, and so on.  It was reasonable for people to worry a little about whether Allen would ever grow out of that.

 

Now it feels like he's evolved in exactly the guy who we've always wanted at QB since the Kelly era.  You can absolutely tell in-game that he hates taking check-downs.  But the dumb mistakes are more or less gone.  He just relentlessly pushes defenses back on their heels.  I just love this guy.  

[billybrew1]

You’d think the perfect player to add to a Josh Allen offense would be Christian Watson.

 

[blacklabel]

While he's definitely gotten a lot better at knowing when to check down, you can see he's always hanging in there until the last possible second for someone to come open down field. 

 

This also kinda reminded me about how there were some gripes about the Bills ranking near the bottom of the pile in yards after catch. I guess I don't see it as that big of a deal when your offense is built on longer routes and your QB launches rockets and makes YAC kind of negligible since he's hitting his guys in the numbers from 30 yards out. Air yards!

[MiltonWaddams]

13 minutes ago, billybrew1 said:

You’d think the perfect player to add to a Josh Allen offense would be Christian Watson.

 

He likely would have been had he been available in rd 2…. But Cook was an excellent choice there as well.

[Big Turk]

4 hours ago, BillsFanSD said:

Allen tried to do too much during his first couple of seasons, and he had quite a few silly-looking plays as a result.  Things like getting flushed out of the pocket and completely turning his back on the defense, refusing the throw the ball away when the play is obviously busted, and so on.  It was reasonable for people to worry a little about whether Allen would ever grow out of that.

 

Now it feels like he's evolved in exactly the guy who we've always wanted at QB since the Kelly era.  You can absolutely tell in-game that he hates taking check-downs.  But the dumb mistakes are more or less gone.  He just relentlessly pushes defenses back on their heels.  I just love this guy.  

 

Every once in a while he will still take a dumb sack but they have been cut down from like once or twice a game to like once every 4 or 5 games. I can live with that based on everything else he brings to the table.

1 hour ago, MiltonWaddams said:

He likely would have been had he been available in rd 2…. But Cook was an excellent choice there as well.

 

Cook is a matchup nightmare because a defense likely won't bring in a CB to cover him since he is in the backfield, but then when the Bills split him out wide he is a huge mismatch for a LB trying to cover him. And if they decide to put their nickel CB on him, then it leaves a LB trying to cover Crowder or Shakir.  No realy good answers, just a pick your poison situation.

[SoCal Deek]

Didn’t read through all of this but the best thing that happened to the Bills offense in the playoffs was using Singletary as a check down option over the middle. He was wide open in front of the dropping coverage LBs and Allen just kept feeding it to him. Reminded me of the Thurman days. I’m hoping we see way more of that in 2022. It’s pretty much unstoppable.

[FilthyBeast]

On 5/31/2022 at 10:39 AM, mushypeaches said:

"Winning games is hard in the NFL"

 

-Dick Jauron

 

When you don't have a franchise QB it certainly is sadly.