Preparing for Tre White to never be the same post-injury

[ganesh]

3 minutes ago, MJS said:

Tre isn't an average player, though. I would rather see the data for really good players. It is muddled from all the players who are average or crappy, who would have shorter careers anyway.

 

We have a ton of examples of really good players coming back from serious injuries, including ACL tears, and playing at a high level. There's no reason Tre White can't be one of those.

https://drsterett.com/5-pro-athletes-who-have-torn-their-acl

2 minutes ago, ganesh said:

https://drsterett.com/5-pro-athletes-who-have-torn-their-acl

 

McGahee tore his ACL (along with other things) in College National Championship and went on to become a top-40 RB in the NFL

[Saxum]

16 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

I'm not disputing the facts of these studies. I would just add that the overall career length for all NFL players is less than 3 years.

Average is a term used by those without math backgrounds.  Mean is more appropriate.  There are hundreds of players who amount to nothing other than practice squad / inactive players who depress the average.  I worked with one of those players who was signed by JEST as UDFA and bounced between inactive and practice squad with very few live snaps.  Fortunately he did something with his education and is making good money in computer security.  

[Rochesterfan]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

I hope you're right. 

 

 

According to 3 different studies, the odds seem to be against what we both want.

 

The studies are all very questionable.  The data looks at in many cases 3 years out and the issue is that is past the longevity of the positions.  What are the similar drops of all players in that age bracket.  Are the changes significantly different than the control non-ACL patients.

 

The number of high school and college ACL tears that then go on to be successful and high out put NFL players makes me question the studies.  Guy like Willis McGahee had his knee destroyed in college and came back to have a 10 year career with multiple PB and other honors.  
 

The difference is if that same knee injury happened in his 6th year of pro football and cost him time - his 3 year outlook would be bad because he already was approaching or past his prime.

 

We will see, but as was stated in the other thread - the number of successful college and high school players that have overcome ACL tears has gone up dramatically and the same is true of young NFL players.  Where Tre’ White will fall will depend upon his own recovery, but just the advancement in rehab with 0 weight under water treadmills has allowed for faster and better recovery from ACL injuries.

 

 

[HamptonBillsfan]

2 hours ago, Big Turk said:

And there also is a chance that he does return to form.

 

Every player is different, so the only thing we can do is wait and see.

 

This year I am prepared for him to be average since it usually takes a year to get back to where they were.

 

After that, I am more in a wait and see mode.

If he's only average, Beane better get some veteran depth because the thought of Jackson and the rookie against the receiving corps on our schedule(Miami,LA, Minn., Cleveland, Pittsburgh and KC etc) doesn't inspire confidence. 

[Saxum]

 

Buffalo Bills HOF RB Thurman Thomas played entire career with partially torn ACL

 

Quote

When a fan asked how long Thomas played with the torn ACL, Thomas responded by saying he played the rest of his career with the injury. He'd later add that his ACL was about 85 percent torn.

 

[Chuck Schick]

2 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

I understand not reading a post that you're not interested in. 

 

I do not understand not reading the post, but then still commenting on it.

 

The studies are from 2022, 2019 and 2017. All recent. Nothing old. All relevant today.

Even though the first  study you reference was released fairly recently (2017), the actual data comes from 10ish years ago:

 

Methods:

Thirty-eight NFL defensive players with a history of ACLR from 2006 to 2012 were identified. For each injured player, a matched control player was identified.

[Royale with Cheese]

2 hours ago, Einstein said:

This post may draw some knee-jerk reactions of anger, but please know that it wasn't written to make anyone upset. Unfortunately, the topic is naturally upsetting - We all love Tre White and want him to return to his typical dominant play. To that end, I've done some research on ACL injuries in NFL players. The common refrain from NFL fans is that ACL injuries are no longer the career-ender they once were, and I wanted to see if that was true. Unfortunately, research on players returning post ACL surgery is not optimistic, even in the modern era.

 

One study, Return to Play and Decreased Performance After Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction in National Football League Defensive Players published in the The American Journal of Sports Medicine (2017), shows that:

 

• After the season of surgery, athletes in the ACLR group who returned to play decreased to 57% games started and 2.38 ± 1.24 solo tackles per game, while their matched controls suffered no significant decreases. (link)

And the result of the study indicated rather succinctly:

 

• Players who successfully returned were above-average NFL players before their injury but comparatively average after their return.

 

Another study, this one published in 2022, titled Return to Play and Performance After Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction in National Football League Players shows similar results. Published in the Orthopaedic Journal of Sports Medicine, the results stated:

 

• Of the eligible players, only 28.5% (n = 59/207) remained in the league 3 years postinjury. Within the first 3 years postinjury, players played in fewer games (8.7 vs 13.7; P < .0001), started in fewer games (3.0 vs 8.3; P < .0001), had lower AVs (1.5 vs 4.3; P < .0001), and had decreased snap counts (259.0 vs 619.0; P < .0001) compared with preinjury. (link)

 

The conclusion of the study is no better:

 

• The study findings indicated that NFL players are severely affected by ACL injury, with only 28.5% still active in the league 3 years after the injury. Running backs, defensive linemen, and linebackers performed the worst after injury. v

 

Lastly, a 2019 study that examined ACL tears in Wide Receivers (I used this study because the WR position requires similar impact on the ACL). This study is titled 

Decreased Performance and Return to Play Following Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction in National Football League Wide Receivers. Published in The Arthroscopy Sports Medicine and Rehabilitation issue, the study found that:

 

• When we compared the tear group with the matched control cohort, players with ACL tears ended their careers on an average of 1.9 seasons earlier (2.2 vs 4.1 seasons, P < .001) and also played less than half the number of games (25.5 vs 56.6 games, P = .001), respectively. Those that RTP also saw decreased performance statistics in targets (353.6 vs 125.2 P < .001), receptions (208.0 vs 74.4, P = .001), receiving yards (2691.0 vs 987.9, P = .001), and touchdowns (17.4 vs 6.2, P = .002). (link)
• One potential good tidibt: "no significant differences were present between preinjury and postinjury in-game in all in-game statistics for the wide receiver"

 

Overall Conclusion? Concern.

 

There is a legitimate chance that Tre never returns to the level of play he showed in 2021 and prior, and there is a potential that his career will be shorter than we once thought.

 

 

 

There are way too many variables to come up with this conclusion.  You have to breakdown whether it was a great starter, average starter, a guy who wasn't good enough to stay in the league after a few years, a guy already declining in his career, the age of the injury, the level/dedication of the rehab they went through etc....

 

Here is a list of players that tore their ACL and had fine careers after:

- Tom Brady

- Gronk

- Thomas Davis tore his 3 times.

- Von Miller

- Eric Berry

- Tyrann Mathieu

- Adrian Peterson

- Reggie Wayne

- Julian Edelman

- Darren Sproles

- Dalvin Cook

- Allen Robinson

- Darrell Revis

- Willis McGahee

- Nick Bosa posted 15.5 sacks a year after his ACL tear.

 

This is just the NFL and many of these I had to check from years back.  There are still other athletes from other sports that recovered well.

There are too many factors to have a legit conclusion.

 

Jameson Williams tore his ACL in January (4 months ago) and was still a top 15 pick.

[RiotAct]

2 hours ago, Einstein said:

Neither do I.

 

Tre White WILL be back. The question is how much of his ability will be back.

yep.  Even if the answer is, say, 90%… I still feel pretty damned good about our defense.

2 hours ago, Einstein said:

Neither do I.

 

Tre White WILL be back. The question is how much of his ability will be back.

yep.  Even if the answer is, say, 90%… I still feel pretty damned good about our defense.

[HappyDays]

I doubt the authors of these studies would agree with the way you're using their data. Scientific studies are great for finding patterns in groups, not for predicting behavior in individuals. It's like how people used numbers to show that Josh Allen wouldn't succeed as a QB, without factoring in any of the context of his individual situation. Everything I know about Tre White the person and about the Bills medical staff tells me that he will be totally fine. Maybe not 100% right away. But nothing to be concerned about long term.

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, HamptonBillsfan said:

If he's only average, Beane better get some veteran depth because the thought of Jackson and the rookie against the receiving corps on our schedule(Miami,LA, Minn., Cleveland, Pittsburgh and KC etc) doesn't inspire confidence. 

 

How do you know Elam won't be as good as White as a rookie?

 

DB is the last of my concerns on this team. The coaches seem to play a system that both gets everything possible out of these players and makes it easy for them to step in with little drop off when need be.

[EasternOHBillsFan]

3 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

Your sentiment seems to be that an opinion that is negative in nature can not be rooted in fact or reality and that the positive side of the possibility must be the correct answer. I guess we differ in that respect. I follow whichever way the evidence points me. 

 

 

Agreed. Thats sad.

 

 

 

Currently I am probably at the worst point in my mental health in many years, so I try to find as many positive things as I can. 

 

With a CB, speed, agility and quickness are vital and I definitely can see how a post-surgery Tre could be reduced in effectiveness... but I want to believe that he will buck the odds you presented!

[beerme1]

I mean I remember Sam Cowart. Never the same guy after and had a shortened career and probably fits those stats that the op threw out there. 

That was then, this is now. Surgical techniques have changed, assumedly for the better. Sam Cowart was a thick guy with a lot of pressure on his legs. 

Tre Dey Ain't Dat and I like his chances of coming back strong. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

He tore his ACL, there is obvious concern.  Top level players seem to return to form lately. ACL injuries have been rehabbed differently lately. More aggressive rehab has been key.

 

Tre will return but we won’t know how he’ll play until it happens. 

[Thurman#1]

7 hours ago, Einstein said:

This post may draw some knee-jerk reactions of anger, but please know that it wasn't written to make anyone upset. Unfortunately, the topic is naturally upsetting - We all love Tre White and want him to return to his typical dominant play. To that end, I've done some research on ACL injuries in NFL players. The common refrain from NFL fans is that ACL injuries are no longer the career-ender they once were, and I wanted to see if that was true. Unfortunately, research on players returning post ACL surgery is not optimistic, even in the modern era.

 

One study, Return to Play and Decreased Performance After Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction in National Football League Defensive Players published in the The American Journal of Sports Medicine (2017), shows that:

 

• After the season of surgery, athletes in the ACLR group who returned to play decreased to 57% games started and 2.38 ± 1.24 solo tackles per game, while their matched controls suffered no significant decreases. (link)

And the result of the study indicated rather succinctly:

 

• Players who successfully returned were above-average NFL players before their injury but comparatively average after their return.

 

Another study, this one published in 2022, titled Return to Play and Performance After Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction in National Football League Players shows similar results. Published in the Orthopaedic Journal of Sports Medicine, the results stated:

 

• Of the eligible players, only 28.5% (n = 59/207) remained in the league 3 years postinjury. Within the first 3 years postinjury, players played in fewer games (8.7 vs 13.7; P < .0001), started in fewer games (3.0 vs 8.3; P < .0001), had lower AVs (1.5 vs 4.3; P < .0001), and had decreased snap counts (259.0 vs 619.0; P < .0001) compared with preinjury. (link)

 

The conclusion of the study is no better:

 

• The study findings indicated that NFL players are severely affected by ACL injury, with only 28.5% still active in the league 3 years after the injury. Running backs, defensive linemen, and linebackers performed the worst after injury. v

 

 

 

 

There is indeed a legitimate chance he returns with decreased performance.

 

But you're leaving out a bunch of things from those studies.

 

First, the gears of science grind slowly. Even the 2022 study you refer to was looking at data from 2013 - 2018. And things seem to have gotten better since then. That's anecdotal, but appears real. People weren't really saying the same things nearly as much back in 2018.

 

Second, at the bottom it says RBs, DLs and LBs performed the worst after injury. QBs the best. CBs take a lot less impact than RBs, DLs and LBs. CBs are not among the most affected positions.

 

More, the figures they're comparing are affected by losing time after the injury and by the inclusion of the figures from the first year back. There does indeed seem to lasting effects the year after. So you'd expect that to affect both games played in the first three years back and average performance in those same first three years.

 

 

[ExiledInIllinois]

Brady tore his ACL/MCL, missed 2008.

 

But then again, he drinks TB12 smoothies... 

[Chandler#81]

6 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

I understand not reading a post that you're not interested in. 

 

I do not understand not reading the post, but then still commenting on it.

 

The studies are from 2022, 2019 and 2017. All recent. Nothing old. All relevant today.

Part of it, frankly, is the repetitive negativity of your short posting history. You may well not understand it, but I’m sure many here do. I entered into it fully expecting another ‘anti-Einstein’ perspective and was surprised by a qualitative narrative with sources.
You reap what you sew 🤷‍♂️

btw, I’m optimistic Tre’ will return good as new!👍🤞

Edited May 25, 2022 by Chandler#81

[Utah John]

8 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

I understand not reading a post that you're not interested in. 

 

I do not understand not reading the post, but then still commenting on it.

 

The studies are from 2022, 2019 and 2017. All recent. Nothing old. All relevant today.

The 2022 study's result is that players only lasted about 3 years post-injury.  I'll bet 3-4 years is the mode of the distribution of career length (mode being the most frequently observed result).  Since most of the players who tore ACLs had already played a few years this is not too disappointing a result.

 

The other studies are from 2017 and 2019, and with the advances in sports medicine over the past several years, there's reason to hope that results for current players will be better.

 

So, caution and prudence dictate that the Bills prepare for a no-Tre start to the season, and even after he does return, not to expect the same level of performance.  So you know what?  Maybe opposing QBs will try to throw near him, and his INTs will go up.  

[Matt_In_NH]

Do these studies take into account guys who are kind of on the fringe, on rosters, contribute in some way, tear their ACL and then ends up killing their career?  Sometimes guys are on the last year of their deal and a team opts to go with a healthy guy the next year and the player is stuck rehabbing themselves.  I think that scenario may skew some of the findings vs say All Pro's who have the teams full resources in play during rehab.

[Mickey]

Are all ACL injuries the same? This was a non-contact ACL injury, do these studies differentiate between contact and non-contact ACL injuries. Is there a reason to not differentiate? How about other factors such as age at time of injury? Prior injury to the same knee? I am no expert on medical issues but these seam like reasonable questions. 

[Royale with Cheese]

8 hours ago, beerme1 said:

I mean I remember Sam Cowart. Never the same guy after and had a shortened career and probably fits those stats that the op threw out there. 

That was then, this is now. Surgical techniques have changed, assumedly for the better. Sam Cowart was a thick guy with a lot of pressure on his legs. 

Tre Dey Ain't Dat and I like his chances of coming back strong. 

Cowart tore his Achilles.  That was much more of a devastating injury 20 years ago.