Bills OTAs

[Doc]

5 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

Davis isn't replacing Sanders production alone, who is saying that? Those who believe in Gabe think he's a solid/capable #2....he's never been given this opportunity before and he's deserved it.  But we also have Knox and Crowder/McKenzie in the slot, along with Shakir.  Not to mention, we didn't draft Cook in the 2nd for him to ride the pine.

 

Plenty of weaponry.  Davis is the least of my concerns heading into the season.  Eager to see how Dorsey plans to utilize, what I'd consider one of our most versatile skill position groups in quite a while.

 

Sanders had just 77 more yards receiving (and 2 fewer TDs) than Davis.  He should be able to surpass that. 

[MasterStrategist]

Just now, Doc said:

Sanders had just 77 more yards receiving (and 2 fewer TDs) than Davis.  He should be able to surpass that. 

Agree. Sorry I should clarify that I don't expect Davis to put up his stats + Sanders (>1,200 yards).  

 

I think Davis is capable of reaching near 1k, in a 17 game season.  But with all the weapons that we have, I think the targets won't be there.  Also think we will be running the ball a tad more this upcoming season.

 

[RocCityRoller]

6 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

IMO, a more accurate comparison is to look at the two WR’s production before arriving in Buffalo, and Beasley’s and Crowder’s production in their seasons prior were very similar. The bigger difference was that Beasley was in Dallas with Tony Romo, and then Dak Prescott, while Crowder was on two crap teams with a string of pedestrian QBs. 

 

If Crowder is given Beasley’s role, it’s not unreasonable to expect Crowder to have a more productive ‘22 than Beasley’s ‘21.

 

I did just this and shared it a few months ago. The output by Beasley and Crowder before joining the Bills was remarkably similar. Given that Bease played with better QBS it was pretty much a wash.

 

I think Crowder and Allen will need a few games to click. Beasley was money on 3rd down and rarely dropped or was OOB for those catches. He had a 71% catch rate in Buffalo, which aligns with his whole career. His first year with JA was poor for him 63%. Daboll learned how to use him, Beasley learned the concepts and JA began to trust him.

 

I'd expect the same with Crowder. That said I think 29 yr old Crower has more in the tank than 33 yr old Beasley. I think it's a horizontal move, and a bit younger.

[RocCityRoller]

59 minutes ago, Doc said:

Yeah. Or even expecting 700 more yards and 45-50 more receptions. He had 35 catches for 549 yards last year. That would be 80 to 85 catches for 1250 yards.  No one is expecting that. 

 

I feel fine with Davis. 60 for 840 (14 ypc) and 6-8 TDs would be a good season, given the Bills are not a 2 WR team.

[Rocky Landing]

13 minutes ago, RocCityRoller said:

 

I did just this and shared it a few months ago. The output by Beasley and Crowder before joining the Bills was remarkably similar. Given that Bease played with better QBS it was pretty much a wash.

 

I think Crowder and Allen will need a few games to click. Beasley was money on 3rd down and rarely dropped or was OOB for those catches. He had a 71% catch rate in Buffalo, which aligns with his whole career. His first year with JA was poor for him 63%. Daboll learned how to use him, Beasley learned the concepts and JA began to trust him.

 

I'd expect the same with Crowder. That said I think 29 yr old Crower has more in the tank than 33 yr old Beasley. I think it's a horizontal move, and a bit younger.

I think this is a good take. I would add that JA now is a much more mature and confident QB than JA in Beasley’s first season in Buffalo. I would hope the relationship could develop a bit quicker with Crowder. 

[Putin]

1 hour ago, Doc said:

Yeah. Or even expecting 700 more yards and 45-50 more receptions. He had 35 catches for 549 yards last year. That would be 80 to 85 catches for 1250 yards.  No one is expecting that. 

Why not ? 

[Doc]

1 minute ago, Putin said:

Why not ? 

 

Because it's a lot to ask for.  And while it would be nice, the Bills don't need it. 

[BADOLBILZ]

4 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

Did I argue that Beasley wasn’t more productive than Crowder last season? No, I did not. 
 

(That qualifies as a straw man argument, btw)

 

 

 

So LMGTS......... I said that the Bills replaced Beasley with a less productive receiver.............you took exception with some vague argument about context..........I told you that my point still stands AS WELL as answering your stupid context argument succinctly.........and you think I am straw manning you?

 

I never cease to be amazed and the stupid f*cking ***** people will say on TSW. 

[Rocky Landing]

3 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

So LMGTS......... I said that the Bills replaced Beasley with a less productive receiver.............you took exception with some vague argument about context..........I told you that my point still stands AS WELL as answering your stupid context argument succinctly.........and you think I am straw manning you?

 

I never cease to be amazed and the stupid f*cking ***** people will say on TSW. 

Wow. What an unhinged response…

[The Wiz]

2 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

He missed one game last year for covid but played 16 games in 2020 and 16 games in 2021. Hasn’t shown he can stay healthy consistently? Not sure where that comes from. 

There were reports from Sal early to mid season that he had a lingering ankle injury that didn't sideline him but he wasn't 100% early on last year.

 

His numbers didn't skyrocket down the stretch but he was definitely getting more targets and receptions near the later part of the season. 

[BADOLBILZ]

4 hours ago, Doc said:

 

Beasley had 693 yards and 1 TD last season.  Sanders had 626 and 4.  That's decent but hardly significant.  Davis and Crowder can provide, and probably surpass those totals, health-willing, which is the biggest question mark with Crowder.

 

As for Howard, even if he provides what he did last season, that's still about 100 more yards than the TE's not named Knox provided.

 

 

Well last year Davis had 549 and Crowder had 447.         

 

As I've said before Davis could put up 1175 yards receiving to cover for all of the yardage he and Sanders COMBINED for last season.

 

That's just a big jump for a guy whose averaged less than half that in his first two seasons........a career 56% catch guy that has battled foot injuries(though he remained on the active roster thru them) and inconsistency (like his dreadful 3 catches on 14 targets game against the Jets last year).

 

Crowder could put up 700 or more...........but he also could continue to be what he's been..........too unavailable and less productive.

 

And I will add this..........I, for one, didn't go into this offseason thinking that the Bills passing game didn't have room for improvement.

 

The Bills averaged 299 yards passing per game in 2020...........that number fell to 262 last year.

 

IMO..........Josh Allen should be a 5,000 yard passer every year in a 17 game schedule.........just "replacing" production that wasn't enough would not BE enough, IMO.

 

[RocCityRoller]

41 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

So LMGTS......... I said that the Bills replaced Beasley with a less productive receiver.............you took exception with some vague argument about context..........I told you that my point still stands AS WELL as answering your stupid context argument succinctly.........and you think I am straw manning you?

 

I never cease to be amazed and the stupid f*cking ***** people will say on TSW. 

 

Hey Badolbillz. I'm a Beasley fan and appreciated his time here. Even now. The sentiment toward him on TSW was pretty awful the last year or so IMO.

All of that said, I'm not sure how you argue Crowder is less productive than Beasley.

 

Bease and Crowder each played 7 seasons before joining Buffalo.

Beasley is 5'8" 175, Crowder is 5'9" 177.

Beasley's first season with Buffalo was his age 30 season, Crowder will be 29.

Both were 3rd WR/ slot guys in their respective past.

Very similar pedigree.

 

Before Buffalo: (7 seasons each): All stats from Pro Football Reference

Beasley: 103 games - 450 targets - 319 rec - 70.9% catch - 3271 yards - 10.3 ypc - 23 TD - 31.8 yards per game.

Crowder: 96 games - 611 targets - 409 rec - 66.9% catch - 4607 yards - 11.3 ypc - 28 TD - 48.0 yards per game

 

Both guys played similar roles and played 7 seasons before joining Buffalo.

In 7 fewer games Crowder had 161 more targets, 90 more receptions, 1336 more yards, 1 more YPC, 5 more TD and 16+ more yards per game than Beasley.

 

One could argue Beasley was more efficient with a 4% higher catch %, but Beasley had better QB play. Availability is also an ability, +1 to Bease.

 

Before Buffalo

Crowder has 3x seasons of 750+ yards receiving

Beasley had 1

 

Crowder had 3x seasons of 6+ TD

Beasley had 0 (he had 2x of 5 TDs)

 

Crowder actually brings more to the table than Bease did at the time they signed with the Bills.

 

Crowder was a sneaky good signing. I think Diggs/ Davis/ Crowder is a fine 3 WR starting unit.

Edited June 20, 2022 by RocCityRoller

[BADOLBILZ]

23 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

Wow. What an unhinged response…

 

 

I'd say you stole that ridiculously illogical take from a crass satire like 'Trailer Park Boys" or "It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia" template..........but sadly, that would be giving FAR too much credit. 

[Rocky Landing]

2 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I'd say you stole that ridiculously illogical take from a crass satire like 'Trailer Park Boys" or "It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia" template..........but sadly, that would be giving FAR too much credit. 

Oddly enough, I worked on It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia for four seasons, and I have no idea what you’re talking about. 

[Doc]

13 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Well last year Davis had 549 and Crowder had 447.         

 

As I've said before Davis could put up 1175 yards receiving to cover for all of the yardage he and Sanders COMBINED for last season.

 

That's just a big jump for a guy whose averaged less than half that in his first two seasons........a career 56% catch guy that has battled foot injuries(though he remained on the active roster thru them) and inconsistency (like his dreadful 3 catches on 14 targets game against the Jets last year).

 

Crowder could put up 700 or more...........but he also could continue to be what he's been..........too unavailable and less productive.

 

And I will add this..........I, for one, didn't go into this offseason thinking that the Bills passing game didn't have room for improvement.

 

The Bills averaged 299 yards passing per game in 2020...........that number fell to 262 last year.

 

IMO..........Josh Allen should be a 5,000 yard passer every year in a 17 game schedule.........just "replacing" production that wasn't enough would not BE enough, IMO.

 

Taking Davis' catch% and YPR and multiplying it by Sanders' targets last year, Davis would have had the same number of yards as Sanders.  Sanders played 176 more snaps and had 9 more targets.  As for Crowder, I didn't watch the Jets last year to know why his YPC dropped from 11.8 in 2020 to 8.8 last year, but if I had to guess I'd say it was because of Zach Wilson.   Again I agree that injury will be a concern, but that's why they have McK, who I can see having a bigger role this year (outside of injury to Crowder).

 

And as I said, I wouldn't expect Davis to put up even 1175 yards.  But 900 yards and a bump up from Crowder/McK versus Beasley/McK is reasonable and you makeup the loss.

 

As for Josh's passing numbers from 2020 to 2021, I think that Dawkins' COVID struggles and Brown's learning curve factored into it.  But as for being a 5,000 yard passer, I don't see it given how much he scrambles, and he's a far more dangerous QB when he does. 

 

6 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

I think your 100% right that they want to run the ball more this year…. Why? No idea.

 

If I had to guess, for play-action purposes.

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

Just now, Doc said:

 

Taking Davis' catch% and YPR and multiplying it by Sanders' targets last year, Davis would have had the same number of yards as Sanders.  Sanders played 176 more snaps and had 9 more targets.  As for Crowder, I didn't watch the Jets last year to know why his YPC dropped from 11.8 in 2020 to 8.8 last year, but if I had to guess I'd say it was because of Zach Wilson.   Again I agree that injury will be a concern, but that's why they have McK, who I can see having a bigger role this year (outside of injury to Crowder).

 

And as I said, I wouldn't expect Davis to put up even 1175 yards.  But 900 yards and a bump up from Crowder/McK versus Beasley/McK is reasonable and you makeup the loss.

 

As for Josh's passing numbers from 2020 to 2021, I think that Dawkins' COVID struggles and Brown's learning curve factored into it.  But as for being a 5,000 yard passer, I don't see it given how much he scrambles, and he's a far more dangerous QB when he does. 

 

 

If I had to guess, for play-action purposes.

 

I think Allen is pretty good as well in play-action

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2022/06/12/buffalo-bills-josh-allen-play-action-pro-football-focus/

 

 

Don’t overlook his ability as a play-action passer as well.

According to Pro Football Focus, Allen has had the most touchdown passes on play-action throws since 2020 with 40.

[BADOLBILZ]

25 minutes ago, RocCityRoller said:

 

Hey Badolbillz. I'm a Beasley fan and appreciated his time here. Even now. The sentiment toward him on TSW was pretty awful the last year or so IMO.

All of that said, I'm not sure how you argue Crowder is less productive than Beasley.

 

Bease and Crowder each played 7 seasons before joining Buffalo.

Beasley is 5'8" 175, Crowder is 5'9" 177.

Beasley's first season with Buffalo was his age 30 season, Crowder will be 29.

Both were 3rd WR/ slot guys in their respective past.

Very similar pedigree.

 

Before Buffalo: (7 seasons each): All stats from Pro Football Reference

Beasley: 103 games - 450 targets - 319 rec - 70.9% catch - 3271 yards - 10.3 ypc - 23 TD - 31.8 yards per game.

Crowder: 96 games - 611 targets - 409 rec - 66.9% catch - 4607 yards - 11.3 ypc - 28 TD - 48.0 yards per game

 

Both guys played similar roles and played 7 seasons before joining Buffalo.

In 7 fewer games Crowder had 161 more targets, 90 more receptions, 1336 more yards, 1 more YPC, 5 more TD and 16+ more yards per game than Beasley.

 

One could argue Beasley was more efficient with a 4% higher catch %, but Beasley had better QB play. Availability is also an ability, +1 to Bease.

 

Before Buffalo

Crowder has 3x seasons of 750+ yards receiving

Beasley had 1

 

Crowder had 3x seasons of 6+ TD

Beasley had 0 (he had 2x of 5 TDs)

 

Crowder actually brings more to the table than Bease did at the time they signed with the Bills.

 

Crowder was a sneaky good signing. I think Diggs/ Davis/ Crowder is a fine 3 WR starting unit.

 

I get the 7 year argument.   He's also a higher pedigree player(a 4th round pick).

 

But it's simple...........Beasley was much more productive last year.

 

The most important data is the most recent data.........especially in the NFL where careers aren't long.

 

But as I've said........Beasley was also more productive that Crowder in 2020 as well.

 

And 3 of the past 4 years he's produced more yardage and had more catches.

 

I liked the Crowder signing.........but it is what it is........an injury flier on a guy who has missed 9 games the last two seasons and had a very large drop-off last season in particular.

 

As I've said in other posts.........just getting back to where they were in 2021 is not even good enough IMO..........they dropped almost 40 yards per game in passing yardage per game from 2020.

 

I thought they should have upgraded their talent.   On paper.......they simply did not. 

 

But it's not over yet........there are still some talented outside receiver options still on the market.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[sirebors]

On 6/18/2022 at 6:38 PM, CaliBills said:

 

Just put him on ignore as he obviously thinks he is the smartest person in the room but is far from it.  

 

I did long ago. Makes the TBD experience much more enjoyable. Don't have to read nonsense or be aggravated needlessly. I come here to hear from knowledgeable posters, not to have my mood ruined by trolls. 

[BADOLBILZ]

54 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Taking Davis' catch% and YPR and multiplying it by Sanders' targets last year, Davis would have had the same number of yards as Sanders.  Sanders played 176 more snaps and had 9 more targets.  As for Crowder, I didn't watch the Jets last year to know why his YPC dropped from 11.8 in 2020 to 8.8 last year, but if I had to guess I'd say it was because of Zach Wilson.   Again I agree that injury will be a concern, but that's why they have McK, who I can see having a bigger role this year (outside of injury to Crowder).

 

And as I said, I wouldn't expect Davis to put up even 1175 yards.  But 900 yards and a bump up from Crowder/McK versus Beasley/McK is reasonable and you makeup the loss.

 

As for Josh's passing numbers from 2020 to 2021, I think that Dawkins' COVID struggles and Brown's learning curve factored into it.  But as for being a 5,000 yard passer, I don't see it given how much he scrambles, and he's a far more dangerous QB when he does. 

 

 

If I had to guess, for play-action purposes.

 

Crowder was hurt all season.   That's why his ypa was down.  He had no burst.

 

He used to be a big YAC guy.......something the Bills desperately need........but last year he had a woeful 3.5 YAC after averaging 5.8 YAC the previous 3 seasons.    Not saying Zach Wilson didn't cost him some,  his depth of target was down about a yard.........but he lost MORE than some.   Injuries have become his problem,  both in terms of bulk stats and averages.   Hence his bargain price.

 

Here are some good clips from weeks 9-11 that show the lack of burst last season:

 

 

Edited June 20, 2022 by BADOLBILZ

[RocCityRoller]

2 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

I get the 7 year argument.   He's also a higher pedigree player(a 4th round pick).

 

But it's simple...........Beasley was much more productive last year.

 

The most important data is the most recent data.........especially in the NFL where careers aren't long.

 

But as I've said........Beasley was also more productive that Crowder in 2020 as well.

 

And 3 of the past 4 years he's produced more yardage and had more catches.

 

I liked the Crowder signing.........but it is what it is........an injury flier on a guy who has missed 9 games the last two seasons and had a very large drop-off last season in particular.

 

As I've said in other posts.........just getting back to where they were in 2021 is not even good enough IMO..........they dropped almost 40 yards per game in passing yardage per game from 2020.

 

I thought they should have upgraded their talent.   On paper.......they simply did not. 

 

But it's not over yet........there are still some talented outside receiver options still on the market.

 

Ok so I understand your POV better, and I hope I demonstrated the other side.

 

It's really rare to have such a great apples to apples comparison as Crowder vs Beasley prior to signing with the Bills and JA for the same role.

JA lifts a lot of WR to be their best. Jones/ Foster/ Brown/ Diggs/ Beasley. One could argue all of them had their best season/s with JA.

 

Crowder was brought in to replace Beasley, the outside WR stuff is really noise that doesn't apply to Crowder IMO.

 

When looking to see if Crowder can fill in, or improve over Beasley, I have to look at what both guys did before joining JA versus comparing a WR paired with JA, and a WR stuck on a poor offense and mediocre at best QB play.

 

Given that perspective, I just don't see a drop off from Beasley to Crowder, as long as Crowder stays healthy. If this is your major issue, then I agree that Crowder missing 9 games the past 2 seasons is troubling. Bease played though a lot of injuries. Will Crowder do the same for a competitive team? What did Crowder have to gain by playing hurt for the Jets? Nothing. It seems OBD also is doubling and tripling down with Shakir and Austin. A little motivation for Crowder to stay in games.

 

Another way to look at my POV. After 2-3 years on the Bills offense, who will be a more productive WR by their 10th season? We have the receipts from Beasley. I think Crowder will easily pass Beasley by season 10 in every category and at worst match Beasley's production here with JA. Can Crowder make that tough 3rd and 12 catch? Will JA trust him? Will he stay healthy? Those are my questions.

 

Chemistry should be a 1 season or less issue. Even Bease dropped to a 63% catch % season 1 with JA (career 71%). It rebounded the next 2 seasons.

 

Love him or hate him Bease is cooked. Through 7 seasons Crowder is clearly the better WR. Now he has the benefit of playing on a functional offense with Josh Allen. Crowder was an upgrade over Beasley.