Can the Bills be the seventh?

[YoloinOhio]

Mcdermott probably in the process of paying off some media members to start going against them 

[Marv's Neighbor]

Show me the baby!   Been waiting this long, what's another 9 months?

[BADOLBILZ]

 

Yeah I mentioned this in another thread a few days ago.

 

The Bills are the favorites,   but the favorite doesn't win that often.

 

The Patriots of 2018 were I believe given a 28% chance to win the SB by Vegas.

 

The Chiefs were given an 18% chance to win the SB last year as the favorite.

 

The Bills are the favorite but I've seen them as low as 7% as the favorite.

 

The general consensus in the gaming industry is that the competition is more fierce than ever this year but there are a lot of folks on TSW who think that this is all just about the Bills "not blowing it".

 

The way I look at it..........they need to get the #1 seed...........they have a pretty easy path to get it but last year it was much easier and they blew it.

 

After they get the #1 they just gotta' win 3 games.  

 

The divisional round, the championship and the SB were all going to be tough opponents one way or another so while their odds of actually winning will probably be the lowest of any favorite ever..........their path remains quite favorable.

 

And they owe extra effort/focus/intensity for those 20 games to both themselves and the fan base for choking during the regular season last year when it had all laid out so easily for them.

 

Last year was the prime opportunity...........this year will be more of a grind.......but also more rewarding if they accomplish it.

[BillsFan619]

15 hours ago, Southern_Bills said:

That's still a 10.72% chance with those odds. I'll take that lol

 

“So you’re telling me there’s a chance!”

 

- Lloyd Christmas

[Nextmanup]

1 hour ago, Marv's Neighbor said:

Show me the baby!   Been waiting this long, what's another 9 months?

You hit on an interesting thought.

 

IF we would be assured that the Bills WILL WIN A SB with McDermott as the coach, Beane as the GM, Josh as the QB, and Diggs as a WR (i.e., reasonably soon), I would be happy to have the big win come as late as possible.

 

It will make it sweeter when it gets here, it will fit the narrative tension of the plot better, and I'm telling you guys, once we win it all, you will forever be changed as a fan, including in bad ways.

 

You won't live and die with the team the way you do now.

 

Delay the huge win as long as possible I say, as long as we get it in the end.

 

Kind of a weird thought, but there it is. 

 

 

[billybrew1]

18 hours ago, BillsFan619 said:

Only six times has the preseason favorite ever won a Super Bowl. Can the Bills be the seventh?

 

Mike Robb had Josh Allen as #1 on GMFB the other day. Cynthia Freuland named the Bills the #1 offense in the NFL. And, we’re starting to see people say that they’re the best team in the NFL.

 

I know that it doesn’t mean much unless they produce on the field but they’re such a complete team. Time will tell but I think they have a really good shot of being the seventh.

 

Go Bills!
 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2022/05/21/six-teams-preseason-favorite-won-super-bowl/

Well that’s just fine but it is our defense that’s gonna decide whether we win that Super Bowl or not….

 

Its got to be respectable. And it’s got to be respectable vs. good teams. Mahomes makes us look like, The Three Stooges….

[Augie]

37 minutes ago, billybrew1 said:

Well that’s just fine but it is our defense that’s gonna decide whether we win that Super Bowl or not….

 

Its got to be respectable. And it’s got to be respectable vs. good teams. Mahomes makes us look like, The Three Stooges….

 

By “respectable”, would the #1 ranked defense in the league be enough?  Because that's what the Bills had last year. In today’s NFL, even the best defenses struggle with the best offenses and QB’s.  If we had a hard time with Mahomes, I bet the #2 defense (the Patriots*) is pretty upset that they can’t even make Josh and the Bills punt once in a while! (While I personally could not have been more thrilled! 😋) 

 

That is the league today. Don’t let 13 seconds cloud your vision, we had a good defense last year. There’s always room for improvement, but I didn’t see a ton to complain about. 

[Old Coot]

My sense is that to win the Super Bowl a team must be both good & lucky, especially during the playoffs.

[BillsfaninChicago]

Why even ask when the answer is obvious. Sure it has happened six times within the timeframe of less than a microsecond human existence but it is now absolutely impossible for a 7th time to become reality. 

[Ayjent]

This will change a bunch between now and the start of the postseason.  They are no lock to get No. 1 seed, but I'm not sure that matters.  It will be interesting to see what Dorsey's offense looks like compared to Daboll's, but I love the additions of Brady and Kromer to the coaching staff.  I think they'll have more balance and more explosive plays.  Still wish that they would have gotten a short yardage back. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

22 hours ago, Augie said:

 

By “respectable”, would the #1 ranked defense in the league be enough?  Because that's what the Bills had last year. In today’s NFL, even the best defenses struggle with the best offenses and QB’s.  If we had a hard time with Mahomes, I bet the #2 defense (the Patriots*) is pretty upset that they can’t even make Josh and the Bills punt once in a while! (While I personally could not have been more thrilled! 😋) 

 

That is the league today. Don’t let 13 seconds cloud your vision, we had a good defense last year. There’s always room for improvement, but I didn’t see a ton to complain about. 

 

They dominate bad teams to the tune of such a domination that it even goes through weighted adjustments like DVOA.

 

Shutout Tua/Brissett dolphins, shut out webb texans, destroyed the saints with Siemian, jags.  Thats 5 games where the opponent had fewer than 250 yards and we had 10 takeaways in those games.  

 

I do think improving the pass rush will help - adding a 2nd corner with some more athleticism is a nice step in that direction as well.  

[FilthyBeast]

I really don't like all this offseason hype and expectations being bestowed upon this team.

 

Obviously the players, coaches, etc knows it's meaningless but all the ingredients are there for Bills mafia to be seriously humbled this year with anything less than a SB appearance/win.

 

Also why Is still believe there should be serious pressure on Beane and McDermott to deliver this year from the Pegulas behind closed doors (I expect that is already the case).

[MPT]

On 5/22/2022 at 7:08 AM, AmishRifle said:

I hope that the players don’t read the press clippings.  I really don’t want to suffer through another Pittsburgh or Jacksonville game like last year.   

 

If they read press clippings, they'll see the ones where they got torn a new collective butthole for dropping those games and hopefully have a chip on their shoulders.

[Nextmanup]

On 5/22/2022 at 12:22 PM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Yeah I mentioned this in another thread a few days ago.

 

The Bills are the favorites,   but the favorite doesn't win that often.

 

The Patriots of 2018 were I believe given a 28% chance to win the SB by Vegas.

 

The Chiefs were given an 18% chance to win the SB last year as the favorite.

 

The Bills are the favorite but I've seen them as low as 7% as the favorite.

 

The general consensus in the gaming industry is that the competition is more fierce than ever this year but there are a lot of folks on TSW who think that this is all just about the Bills "not blowing it".

 

The way I look at it..........they need to get the #1 seed...........they have a pretty easy path to get it but last year it was much easier and they blew it.

 

After they get the #1 they just gotta' win 3 games.  

 

The divisional round, the championship and the SB were all going to be tough opponents one way or another so while their odds of actually winning will probably be the lowest of any favorite ever..........their path remains quite favorable.

 

And they owe extra effort/focus/intensity for those 20 games to both themselves and the fan base for choking during the regular season last year when it had all laid out so easily for them.

 

Last year was the prime opportunity...........this year will be more of a grind.......but also more rewarding if they accomplish it.

The number one thing we can do, and which we have control over (to a degree) is to secure home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

 

Not for the home field "advantage" (which doesn't exist) but for the first playoff weekend bye, which is HUGE.

 

I can't believe the playoffs are structured the way they are; no one team should have to win fewer games to be the champion than others.  It's an enormous advantage.

 

Focus on that goal, and then pray we stay healthy.  It's all you can do.

 

 

[Shaw66]

4 hours ago, FilthyBeast said:

I really don't like all this offseason hype and expectations being bestowed upon this team.

 

Obviously the players, coaches, etc knows it's meaningless but all the ingredients are there for Bills mafia to be seriously humbled this year with anything less than a SB appearance/win.

 

Also why Is still believe there should be serious pressure on Beane and McDermott to deliver this year from the Pegulas behind closed doors (I expect that is already the case).

The bold is really the truth.   We're all sitting here talking ourselves into the total superiority of this team, when the reality is as it's always been in the NFL - it's really, really hard to win a Super Bowl.   All those favorites who didn't?  They had really sad or surprising stories play out - key injuries, offense or defense unexpectedly goes south, coach allows team to lose focus.   I mean, anything can and does keep teams from the top.   

 

And that's the measure of Belichick's genius - the Pats often were picked to be the best, and one way or another they often turned out to be the best.  

 

There are going to be ugly losses along the way.   There were last season, there are almost every season for almost every team that either makes it to the top, or doesn't.  

 

There are no guarantees, nothing even close to guarantee.  There are no locks.  Except where, for whatever combination of reasons, the favorite does, in fact, win it all, and then in hindsight we say, "it was obvious at the beginning of the season that no one could beat them."

 

We used to complain about the power rankings and how stupid they were, because the Bills were at 24 instead of 18.  Now, we don't complain.  You know what?  We were right back then.  The power rankings are meaningless.   They were then, and they are now. 

[Shaw66]

4 hours ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

Also why Is still believe there should be serious pressure on Beane and McDermott to deliver this year from the Pegulas behind closed doors (I expect that is already the case).

On the other hand, I seriously doubt you're right about this.   I think McDermott has everyone sold on his long-term view, including the Pegulas.  The Pegulas probably already agreed with his approach when they hired him.  I don't think the Pegulas are drawing any lines in the sand.  

 

Why not?  Because the Pegulas understand exactly what you said about the Bills not being a lock (in my words).   They know that all kinds of things can happen to keep you from winning.  They understand that you only can win the championship if your team is in the playoffs, and teams that make the playoffs all the time have a better chance of winning a Lombardi.  McDermott and Beane look like they have a team that will be in the playoffs for a long time.  And the Pegulas understand that the team is good because the Bills have some really good players, and some satisfactory players, but they have Bills are good because they have a full team of players handpicked to be McDermott's disciples.   McDermott is the ultimate key to the functioning of the team, because he is the conductor of the orchestra. The Pegulas know that.  

[Buffalo03]

So prior to 1988, there was never a Super Bowl favorite winner?

[Shaw66]

15 minutes ago, Buffalo03 said:

So prior to 1988, there was never a Super Bowl favorite winner?

Good point.  Packers in II must have been the preseason favorite.  

[HappyDays]

I worry a little about the fanbase's expectations this season, myself included. Every one of us is coming into this season with a Super Bowl or bust mindset and that just isn't realistic. Imagine a totally dominant team that locks up the #1 seed a couple weeks early, and is given a 90% chance to win the divisonal round, an 80% chance to win the conference championship, and a 70% chance to win the Super Bowl. At the start of the playoffs that team only has a 50.4% chance of winning the Super Bowl. That's how hard it is in pure statistical terms. Arguably the greatest team of all time, the '07 Patriots, couldn't do it. Even in the most optimistic scenario where every Bills player hits their ceiling and there are no major injuries we're still talking a 50/50 proposition at best. I should temper my expectations. I won't, but I should.

[Starr Almighty]

On 5/21/2022 at 8:42 PM, chongli said:

From the article, the six other teams (including Dallas 1993, who beat us in the SB):

 

 

Edited May 24, 2022 by Starr Almighty