Strongest Conference Foe

[Nextmanup]

On 5/18/2022 at 11:41 PM, Richard Noggin said:

The diversity of answers in this thread likely indicates, as most of us would agree, that the AFC is stacked with so many high-end QBs and dangerous teams in general that it's difficult to predict which will weather the regular season intraconference gauntlet healthy enough and clicking when it matters most.

 

It also suggests that putting any single AFC team, including the Bills, on a predictive pedestal is unwise. Even the odds-on favorite to win it all has a roughly 15% probability at best, which might even be generous.

 

The sheer volume of variables baked into a grueling 17-game NFL season, followed by a 14-team, single-elimination tournament, is calculus that laughs at predictions. No other sport is quite like this. 

 

Add to all the uncertainty the seemingly unprecedented offseason player movement of impactful guys, and it's a puzzle.

Great post.  Says it all.  Not much more to say on this topic.

 

 

[TBBills]

Browns wouldn't be even with Watson.

[Tanoros]

On 5/18/2022 at 3:10 PM, FilthyBeast said:

For me it's still Mahomes and the Chiefs until proven otherwise. And as much as some folks believe that Mahomes and the Chiefs are going to steeply decline this year deep down I think Mahomes is going to have his best season ever and prove what a generational talent he truly is especially with all the doubts cast after Hill was traded to Miami. Also let's not kid ourselves here, until the Bills beat the Chiefs in a playoff game nothing else truly matters so hopefully they get that matchup again sometime next January.

Best season statistically? If so, what makes you say that? the Chiefs will continue to see 2 high looks, limiting the big plays, and now no Tyreek who was good for big time plays and thus big time stats. 
 

Of course Mahomes will play very well this season, but I believe it’s a stretch to think he will have his best season yet (statistically speaking). Perhaps best season as far as taking what’s available, moving the ball, and overall offensive success (as in points scored, not so much stats success). If that’s the case, I certainly can’t discount that. 
 

The AFC is loaded and the Chiefs have a hard schedule to go with their very hard division.  Like many say, the Chiefs can’t be discounted, however, that doesn’t mean Mahomes is going to have his best year. I don’t think Mahomes has best statistical season this year, too much going against that. 

[FilthyBeast]

4 minutes ago, Tanoros said:

Best season statistically? If so, what makes you say that? the Chiefs will continue to see 2 high looks, limiting the big plays, and now no Tyreek who was good for big time plays and thus big time stats. 
 

Of course Mahomes will play very well this season, but I believe it’s a stretch to think he will have his best season yet (statistically speaking). Perhaps best season as far as taking what’s available, moving the ball, and overall offensive success (as in points scored, not so much stats success). If that’s the case, I certainly can’t discount that. 
 

The AFC is loaded and the Chiefs have a hard schedule to go with their very hard division.  Like many say, the Chiefs can’t be discounted, however, that doesn’t mean Mahomes is going to have his best year. I don’t think Mahomes has best statistical season this year, too much going against that. 

 

Not necessarily the best season statistically but still gaudy numbers like Brady used to post year in and year out with marginal talent around him at the skill positions.

 

And what I really mean is he'll be front and center in the MVP discussion again because I do agree that KC is probably going to fall off a bit this year and there's a good chance they don't win the division and finally go the WC route in the playoffs and on the road for the first time in Mahomes career not including the SB.

[frostbitmic]

Allen and Mahomes are the best QB's in the AFC... The Chiefs are our main competition.

[ganesh]

On 5/19/2022 at 2:32 AM, Ethan in Portland said:

Great Division foe thread.  There was good conversation on the topic of AFC competition during free agency and leading up to the draft. Now that most of the moves have been made let's revisit it.

 

My take is the Chargers are the biggest obstacle to the Bills making the SB.  They have a superstar QB, multiple weapons on offense and they have on paper made significant upgrades to their defense.  I think they will win their division but will only be third in the conference standings because of how competitive their division is.  I believe it will be Buffalo #1 followed by Indianapolis at #2.  I think Tenn takes a step back and the Colts win that division by 2+ games.  Bills get home-field in the playoffs and win at home in the Conference game.

 

Why not KC?  It's reasonable to pick KC again and despite moving Hill they did make some nice additions in free agency and the draft.  Just seems like their star is fading while other teams are on the ascent.  

You don't bring down the Chiefs until and unless they fall down. The Chiefs will always start as the Conference favourite.  

Mahomes is clutch when it comes to winning close games.   Justin Herbert lost too many last year that knocked them off the playoffs.

Edited May 22, 2022 by ganesh

[wppete]

Chargers look scary. Bengals will be improved and KC will always be elite. 

[eball]

On 5/18/2022 at 7:57 PM, Ethan in Portland said:

Good take but you left out the Raiders may have one of the weakest HCs in the league.  McDaniels will have a better QB than he did in Denver but he was still a failure in his first stint as a HC.  Add the fact the Belichick tree is littered with failures, I have them 1 game ahead of Denver in third place

 

McDaniels may be the 2nd best HC in his division.  Nathaniel “run him until he pukes” Hackett is a 1st-timer and Brandon “I’m smarter than you” Staley was a tire fire with his in-game decisions last year.  McDaniels has likely learned a lot since his first stint as a HC and will be better than you think.

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

19 minutes ago, eball said:

 

McDaniels may be the 2nd best HC in his division.  Nathaniel “run him until he pukes” Hackett is a 1st-timer and Brandon “I’m smarter than you” Staley was a tire fire with his in-game decisions last year.  McDaniels has likely learned a lot since his first stint as a HC and will be better than you think.

 

He may be 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

I'll say in order:

 

Bengals

Chargers

Chiefs

Broncos (hard to gauge them. they could be #1 or #2 if Wilson is elite and makes everyone better)

Steelers

Ravens

Colts

Titans

Browns

Raiders

Dolphins

Patriots

 

A lot of people seem to be sleeping on the Bengals. They might have the best receiving trio in the league and their QB will probably take another step forward. O-line can only get better. Defense should still be at least as good as last year. 

 

3 hours ago, ganesh said:

You don't bring down the Chiefs until and unless they fall down. The Chiefs will always start as the Conference favourite.  

Mahomes is clutch when it comes to winning close games.   Justin Herbert lost too many last year that knocked them off the playoffs.

 

Mahomes lost to Burrow not once but twice last year. How are the Chiefs the conference favorites? I would not make the Chiefs the conference favorites. And that was before Adams and Wilson joined the division and Hill left. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

On 5/20/2022 at 11:13 AM, FilthyBeast said:

 

Not necessarily the best season statistically but still gaudy numbers like Brady used to post year in and year out with marginal talent around him at the skill positions.

 

And what I really mean is he'll be front and center in the MVP discussion again because I do agree that KC is probably going to fall off a bit this year and there's a good chance they don't win the division and finally go the WC route in the playoffs and on the road for the first time in Mahomes career not including the SB.

 

He won't be in the MVP discussion if the Chiefs don't win the division. Historically, to win the MVP you not only have to win your division but you have to have the #1 seed in your conference. I guess he could be in the fringe discussion just like Allen was this past season. Allen's stats were good enough but with no realistic way of obtaining the #1 seed he wasn't a serious contender over Rodgers or Brady. 

 

 

[Kaenon]

The Conference is so loaded this year.

It's everyone!

 

Almost every week is going to feel like a playoff game.

Except against the Pats, Jests, and Steelers. Jury is out in the Browns, depending on what happens with Watson.

[machine gun kelly]

Baltimore has a lot of people coming back off injuries and even with the injuries they were still in the race until

Lamar was injured.  I’d also add KC even without Hill, and Cincy we’ll see if there a flash in the pan or for real.  They upgraded their O line.  
 

Im not concerned with anyone in the AFCE.  It’s too early to tell with Denver, but they had a defense and with Wilson it wouldn’t surprise me.  I do think the West is going to beat each other up.  As much as I like and respect Herbert, they never seem to go anywhere.

[Greg S]

On 5/21/2022 at 6:35 PM, frostbitmic said:

Allen and Mahomes are the best QB's in the AFC... The Chiefs are our main competition.

 

Chiefs are going to have their hands full with their division. I wouldn't be surprised if they make the playoffs as a WC. My pick for the division is LAC.

[frostbitmic]

3 hours ago, Greg S said:

 

Chiefs are going to have their hands full with their division. I wouldn't be surprised if they make the playoffs as a WC. My pick for the division is LAC.

Luckily for all of the teams in the AFC West, they play 11 games against non division rivals.

[Apocalypse Nuts]

On 5/18/2022 at 5:02 PM, Ethan in Portland said:

Great Division foe thread.  There was good conversation on the topic of AFC competition during free agency and leading up to the draft. Now that most of the moves have been made let's revisit it.

 

My take is the Chargers are the biggest obstacle to the Bills making the SB.  They have a superstar QB, multiple weapons on offense and they have on paper made significant upgrades to their defense.  I think they will win their division but will only be third in the conference standings because of how competitive their division is.  I believe it will be Buffalo #1 followed by Indianapolis at #2.  I think Tenn takes a step back and the Colts win that division by 2+ games.  Bills get home-field in the playoffs and win at home in the Conference game.

 

Why not KC?  It's reasonable to pick KC again and despite moving Hill they did make some nice additions in free agency and the draft.  Just seems like their star is fading while other teams are on the ascent.  

 

IMO, Tenn has a sort of old-school, smash mouth, super physical playing style that's hard to replicate year after year unless you stay really young up front.  Henry is the definition of a beast but he's only human.  And Tannehill kind of looked like he hit a wall last post season.

 

KC is in a prove it year IMO without Hill.  I think they were insane to trade him/let him walk/whatever.  I've just never seen anyone with that kind of speed, plus the hands and the chemistry he and Mahomes had.  I just don't think you plug-and-play just anyone into his spot and think they won't skip a beat.

 

I can't believe I'm actually agreeing with Ethan in Portland!  So weird.  New found respect, brother.

 

 

[Greg S]

1 hour ago, frostbitmic said:

Luckily for all of the teams in the AFC West, they play 11 games against non division rivals.

 

True but that division will probably beat itself up. I could see the winner in that division being something 12-5 or 11-6. The Bills have a relatively easy division compared to the west. The Bills should have a good shot at getting the #1 seed.