Allen still is fairly significantly better on the Road than at Home. Splits don't lie. Thoughts as to why.

[Big Turk]

25 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

I think the whole “Josh doesn’t play well at home” argument was debunked after last years playoff game versus New England

 

This isn't meant to say he doesn't play well at home, merely to question why he plays better on the road in general

[Thurman#1]

12 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

Let me guess...I am supposed to believe they were also much worse in 2019 as well? In 2020 the Red Sea parted and the weather was perfect every game?

 

And yeah I know conditions vary in Buffalo, I've lived here over 40 years.

 

 

Dude, the Red Sea doesn't have to part for the weather to be quite a bit better or worse year to year on a set of eight days per year. In fact, the probabilities will tell you that's quite likely to be true when your sample size is so small. Small sample sizes increase the impact of pure luck, chance and variance.

 

Not to mention that the strength of schedule in a random segment of eight games per year will also vary quite a lot.

 

So, while a data set this small might indeed show that he is playing better away than he is at home, it might easily also be greatly affected by factors like varying weather, harder or easier schedules, games where they are behind requiring more throws and more risks be taken and better or worse opponent pass defenses.

 

 

[Doc Brown]

It's not a perfect comparison because they were on different teams in different eras but they did play in the same stadium.

 

Here are Kelly's home vs. away career splits.  I forgot how much better they were at home looking at the records.  No wonder Vegas used to give the home team 3 points when factoring in the line....

 

Home: 77 games played - 58 wins, 19 losses.   127 TD's, 88 INT's, 86.3 passer rating.

Away : 80 games played - 43 wins, 40 losses.  110 TD's, 87 INT's, 82.8 passer rating.  

 

What's interesting to me is even though he had a higher passer rating his completion percentage was better on the road (barely).  59.77% at home vs. 60.45% on the road.  That's pry where the ungodly wins at Rich Stadium came into play.  The Bills also ran more and passed less at home during Kelly's years.  

 

I think when Allen's career is all said and done you'll see similar stats.  After last year any weather conditions at home will seem pretty minor to him as he's experienced it all at this point.

 

 

[machine gun kelly]

15 hours ago, Big Turk said:

I still think it has to do with Allen becoming too hyped at home, even though he plays music to calm himself down, etc...

 

My basis for thinking this is because in 2020 when there were no fans, the splits were nearly identical, home and away, although he was still slightly better on the road.  However, once the fans came back, again he was significantly better on the road, just as he was the prior year...which is pretty clear evidence that he either tries to do too much at home, is too pumped up to try and wow the home fans or there is something else going on. His rookie year he was pretty much even...mostly bad stat wise in both places.

 

2019 Split

 

2020 Split(no fans)

 

2021 Split(fans again)

 

Career

 

Don't get me wrong, I love the fact he lives for going into other teams houses, taking their lunch money and then laughing in their faces as they cry for Mommy, but it would be nice to see him get a little closer to his road performances at home on balance...

 

 

 

Also...the "more" primetime the game, the better he plays...improving each timeslot from early to afternoon to night.  

Turk, you realize the entire league as a whole did better away than home last year, and the year before was a toss up.
 

It’s why Vegas struggles to give the home team 3 pts on average anymore as it’s an antiquated way of looking at things.  

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

Was there something to this in the past? Sure. But I think Josh has earned us shutting up about it for now.

 

Josh said this offseason (I can't remember what show it was on) that he "absolutely hates" playing in the weather. That's obviously a factor.

 

But I think the "over excited," "nerves" stuff has been put to bed with his play late last year. He turned a corner.

[freddyjj]

"I attribute any fall off in passing performance at home to Josh's lack of arm strength. "

 

Tua Tagovailoa

[colin]

speaking of small sample size trends, it is encouraging how the higher pressure games keep getting a sort of switched on manic josh, but that energy is getting more and more focussed.  first playoff game, josh did some great things early but really had the sugar high thing going on (vs houston).  second was vs indy, he avoided mistakes and put together some insane drives before the d finally got a stop.  baltimore was kinda forgettable w the wind, but he soldiered on pretty well in what i would call a more gutsy day than vs indy.  kc he fought hard, but the whole team really fell off hard.  vs NE this playoffs he was a robot built only for touchdown drives.  vs kc this year he showed a level of power and focus that was kinda shocking at times.  we only lost that game due to a perfect storm of player blunders, calls not going in, horrible d strategy, and losing a coinflip.

 

i think in the playoffs this upcoming season we are going to see allen do things that shouldn't be done, and the whole team is gonna ride that lighting. 

[JESSEFEFFER]

19 hours ago, Big Turk said:

I still think it has to do with Allen becoming too hyped at home, even though he plays music to calm himself down, etc...

 

My basis for thinking this is because in 2020 when there were no fans, the splits were nearly identical, home and away, although he was still slightly better on the road.  However, once the fans came back, again he was significantly better on the road, just as he was the prior year...which is pretty clear evidence that he either tries to do too much at home, is too pumped up to try and wow the home fans or there is something else going on. His rookie year he was pretty much even...mostly bad stat wise in both places.

 

2019 Split

 

2020 Split(no fans)

 

2021 Split(fans again)

 

Career

 

Don't get me wrong, I love the fact he lives for going into other teams houses, taking their lunch money and then laughing in their faces as they cry for Mommy, but it would be nice to see him get a little closer to his road performances at home on balance...

 

 

 

Also...the "more" primetime the game, the better he plays...improving each timeslot from early to afternoon to night.  

Weather, weather, weather.  The worst weather he plays in are home games.  Usually at least two every year.  I am speaking mostly of wind which kills many portions of a passing game.  Yes, he can still function better than the opposition QB, but his passing stats take a dive.

[JESSEFEFFER]

16 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

Well, there hasn't been a "home field advantage" in the NFL for several years now, and not just because of COVID.

 

That whole thing about crowd noise on the road is proving to be a bit of a myth, at least lately.

 

 

 

 

 

I think this is tied most closely to the elimination of the blackout rule.  More fans watching their teams on television means less demand for seats = more empty seats and/or more filled by fans of the visiting team.  This all means a less hostile venue for the road team.

[corta765]

So a few things:

-His second best game of his career 47-17 came at home (KC next game is his best)

-His three worst games of 2021 came on atrocious weather days IND/NE/ATL where the other QB didn't do well either whereas not a single road game in 2021 had bad weather of any form. To me that explain the drastic differences you see in his stats

-His worst game of 2020 came in a crappy rain/wind game vs KC and his only other truly porous game at home was against LAC. Again on the road he got good weather by comparison

-2020 his stats are nearly identical with his accuracy slightly lower

-I can't even go back to 2018 or 2019 as he was developing/a different player at that time to now.

-In 3 playoff home games he was over 300 yds in two of them and the other game Buffalo was able to take the foot off the gas once Lamar went out and just run the clock out

-Allen would've been the NFL MVP in 2020 if it wasn't for Rodgers being just that good and a little better also. His season was basically perfect minus one game (KC) across the board. MVP seasons do not happen every year, but high quality QB seasons do when you have a franchise guy which last year was. High caliber seasons still have a few off games because the guys are human and again the three worst games were all horrendous weather days that any QB would have to deal with.

[Jay_Fixit]

I know I perform better when I stay over at my girlfriends than when I’m home.

 

it’s basically the same thing.

[The Wiz]

2 hours ago, Jay_Fixit said:

I know I perform better when I stay over at my girlfriends than when I’m home.

 

it’s basically the same thing.

Is her name Rosey by any chance?

[Cruiserplayer]

What are opposing quarterbacks splits at high mark versus all there other road games? 

[Jay_Fixit]

41 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

Is her name Rosey by any chance?

Sometimes. 

[PrimeTime101]

5 hours ago, corta765 said:

So a few things:

-His second best game of his career 47-17 came at home (KC next game is his best)

-His three worst games of 2021 came on atrocious weather days IND/NE/ATL where the other QB didn't do well either whereas not a single road game in 2021 had bad weather of any form. To me that explain the drastic differences you see in his stats

-His worst game of 2020 came in a crappy rain/wind game vs KC and his only other truly porous game at home was against LAC. Again on the road he got good weather by comparison

-2020 his stats are nearly identical with his accuracy slightly lower

-I can't even go back to 2018 or 2019 as he was developing/a different player at that time to now.

-In 3 playoff home games he was over 300 yds in two of them and the other game Buffalo was able to take the foot off the gas once Lamar went out and just run the clock out

-Allen would've been the NFL MVP in 2020 if it wasn't for Rodgers being just that good and a little better also. His season was basically perfect minus one game (KC) across the board. MVP seasons do not happen every year, but high quality QB seasons do when you have a franchise guy which last year was. High caliber seasons still have a few off games because the guys are human and again the three worst games were all horrendous weather days that any QB would have to deal with.

I thank you for bringing undisputable facts to this conversation instead of "Weather is a factor.. to a degree"

 

Seriously top-notch spot-on post. Thank you! 

[Big Turk]

11 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

Turk, you realize the entire league as a whole did better away than home last year, and the year before was a toss up.
 

It’s why Vegas struggles to give the home team 3 pts on average anymore as it’s an antiquated way of looking at things.  

 

That's interesting....I did not know that...I actually found a site that has team splits for passing and I will post some interesting comparisons later...I can tell you the Bills have a pretty wide difference in terms of Home/Away passing stats.   Just going by QB Rating, Bills are 8th in road games and 24th in home games.  The 16 spot difference appears to be one of the widest in the league.

[Big Turk]

OK...just did a pretty deep dive into this and from what I can see, I don't believe the Bills performance at home passing wise can be explained simply by weather.

 

Methodologies. I took each teams Home and Away Passing stats, their opponent home and away passing stats and then calculated the net difference in rankings(ie, Bills were 25th at home and opponents were 32nd so they are +7 Net) and also in Net QB Rating.

 

So, here are how the Bills finished:

 

Bills at Home QB Rating/Opponent QB Rating Rank: 25/32 for a +7(10th best in NFL--GB led NFL with +28)

Bills on Road QB Rating/Opponent QB Rating Rank: 8/31 for a +23(Best in NFL--CIN was 2nd with +22)

Bills Home Net QB Rating:  +20.7(5th best in NFL--GB/DAL led NFL both with +38.4)

Bills Away Net QB Rating:  +32.7(Best in NFL--NE was 2nd with +24.7)

 

 

Therefore...it is hard to argue that weather at home is the reason for Allen's relative worse performance there considering opponents perform relatively better on the road against the Bills than than they do in their own stadiums where the Bills rank #1 in for both net difference in QB Rating by rank and also by Net QB Rating. Bills also rank in the bottom third of the league in QB Rating at home which cannot be explained away by only weather.

 

17 teams had a better ranking away versus home with the widest gaps being the Bills at 17 and then Arizona and KC who ranked 16th and 17th at home but 1 and 2 on the road for a gap of 15.

 

 

 

Edited May 18, 2022 by Big Turk

[PrimeTime101]

30 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

OK...just did a pretty deep dive into this and from what I can see, I don't believe the Bills performance at home passing wise can be explained simply by weather.

 

Methodologies. I took each teams Home and Away Passing stats, their opponent home and away passing stats and then calculated the net difference in rankings(ie, Bills were 25th at home and opponents were 32nd so they are +7 Net) and also in Net QB Rating.

 

So, here are how the Bills finished:

 

Bills at Home QB Rating/Opponent QB Rating Rank: 25/32 for a +7(10th best in NFL--GB led NFL with +28)

Bills on Road QB Rating/Opponent QB Rating Rank: 8/31 for a +23(Best in NFL--CIN was 2nd with +22)

Bills Home Net QB Rating:  +20.7(5th best in NFL--GB/DAL led NFL both with +38.4)

Bills Away Net QB Rating:  +32.7(Best in NFL--NE was 2nd with +24.7)

 

 

Therefore...it is hard to argue that weather at home is the reason for Allen's relative worse performance there considering opponents perform relatively better on the road against the Bills than than they do in their own stadiums where the Bills rank #1 in for both net difference in QB Rating by rank and also by Net QB Rating. Bills also rank in the bottom third of the league in QB Rating at home which cannot be explained away by only weather.

 

17 teams had a better ranking away versus home with the widest gaps being the Bills at 17 and then Arizona and KC who ranked 16th and 17th at home but 1 and 2 on the road for a gap of 15.

Oh my.. take out the weather games please. see the difference. You cant begin to do this without splitting the percentages on weather games itself. how can you possibly rule out weather without taking a deep look into the numbers that change during weather games? I find this graph interesting yes BUT the main 2 things we all have been talking about is Josh's rookie year, Weather and the direction of the NFL itself.

[Big Turk]

12 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

Oh my.. take out the weather games please. see the difference. You cant begin to do this without splitting the percentages on weather games itself. how can you possibly rule out weather without taking a deep look into the numbers that change during weather games? I find this graph interesting yes BUT the main 2 things we all have been talking about is Josh's rookie year, Weather and the direction of the NFL itself.

 

Again...opponents play better against the Bills in Buffalo relative to how they play against us in their own stadiums from a passing standpoint.

 

If you can't understand that, I can't help you.

 

You keep bringing up rookie year but his rookie year is when his road/home stats were almost identical so I am not sure what point you are trying to make. If anything it goes AGAINST your point by trying to bring up his rookie stats.

 

The stats breakdown in my last post are only for last year(2021), and don't include any other seasons.

 

Edited May 18, 2022 by Big Turk

[PrimeTime101]

12 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Again...opponents play better against the Bills in Buffalo relative to how they play against us in their own stadiums from a passing standpoint.

 

If you can't understand that, I can't help you.

 

You keep bringing up rookie year but his rookie year is when his road/home stats were almost identical so I am not sure what point you are trying to make. If anything it goes AGAINST your point by trying to bring up his rookie stats.

 

The stats breakdown in my last post are only for last year(2021), and don't include any other seasons.

 

so let me get this straight.. we are now talking about 1 year. Last year? where Buffalo went 6-3 at home and 5-3 away and you now think out of this new data you give us that weather games at home had NOTHING to do with us maybe winning one more game at home with a small sample size? you keep being you.....

 

EDITED

 

and in your words per title.. we do fairly significantly better on the road? LOL ok...

Edited May 18, 2022 by PrimeTime101