Allen still is fairly significantly better on the Road than at Home. Splits don't lie. Thoughts as to why.

[Matt_In_NH]

8 games per year is a small sample, 3 or 4 of them being affected by weather has an impact.  How was  he in the three home playoff games?   Quite outstanding.....this is a red herring, sometimes stats do lie, and you have to dive deeper.

[Big Turk]

6 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

CAREER.. Take that first year of learning out of the equation man... its not 5%.. We want what Josh can do at his full capabilities... no one is going to look at what josh did his rookie year and compare ANTHING from that year. period...  did ya read anything i just said?

 

His first year was literally completely even completion percentage wise road and home splits(52.80 to 52.83%), so that year had no effect on it.

 

Edited May 17, 2022 by Big Turk

[PrimeTime101]

2 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

His first year was literally completely even completion percentage wise road and home splits, so that year had no effect on it.

your going to just look at one stat?  Seriously... you dont think the coaching held him back and tried to control the run game his first year cause our WR's were trash along with our line? you state SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER and I am telling you that is a pile of garbage. 

Edited May 17, 2022 by PrimeTime101

[Orlando Buffalo]

He has had about 30 home games in his career and at least 6 of them have been terrible weather. That is 20% while road weather has not been as bad. Weather could definitely be the only reason for the difference

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

1- Weather. There were ~5 brutal home weather games last year. 

 

2- Meaningless week 17 games that Josh was pulled from happened at home in both 2019 and 2020. Josh played for 1 series in 2019 vs Jets. 

 

3- Couple random home games that the run DEF got stampeded (2019 vs Eagles and 2021 vs Colts *Edit* also 2020 vs Chiefs). Tough for a QB to get stats when he's not on the field. 

 

4-Josh's home stats are still pretty darn good and it's tough to complain about a 21-10 record. His personal stats are a bit better on the road, but the W/L is a little behind at 18-12 (yes I know it's a team stat). 

 

Over the last 3 seasons I think the only games Josh might've been too amped up for would be 2019 vs Patriots, 2019 @ Texans (playoff game), and 2021 vs Steelers. 

Edited May 17, 2022 by DabillsDaBillsDaBills
Adding more info

[Big Turk]

5 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

your going to just look at one stat?  Seriously... you dont think the coaching held him back and tried to control the run game his first year cause our WR's were trash along with our line? you state SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER and I am telling you that is a pile of garbage. 

 

I'm saying that his first year doesn't have much difference in home and road splits.  They mostly were not good regardless of where he played.  So it is the other years that are showing the difference in home/road splits, predominantly the 2019 and 2021 seasons where there were fans.  In 2020 with no fans the splits were much closer than the other two years. Which is why I am suggesting him being too hyped in front of the fans is part of the reason for them.

[NewEra]

41 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

To some degree sure...but the season with no fans where the splits were almost the same suggest there is more at play, especially considering the season before and after were tilted in favor of road splits.

Stop

[Big Turk]

Just now, NewEra said:

Stop

Why?  It is a completely valid observation backed by clear statistical evidence.

[NewEra]

1 minute ago, Big Turk said:

 

I'm saying that his first year doesn't have much difference in home and road splits.  They mostly were not good regardless of where he played.  So it is the other years that are showing the difference in home/road splits, predominantly the 2019 and 2021 seasons where there were fans.  In 2020 with no fans the splits were much closer than the other two years. Which is why I am suggesting him being too hyped in front of the fans is part of the reason for them.

Oh man.  
 

Do you really think Josh allen is worse playing at home because he’s too hyped? 
 

do you REALLY believe this to be true?

[Big Turk]

2 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Oh man.  
 

Do you really think Josh allen is worse playing at home because he’s too hyped? 
 

do you REALLY believe this to be true?

 

Maybe.  It fits with why the splits were almost identical in the year there were no fans and skewed towards the road in the year before and year after.  Why would it be that hard to believe when he readily admits he is too hyped for home games and has to calm himself down?  Are you calling him a liar?

 

 

[Watkins101]

I really don’t get why people blame crowd noise at home for why Josh has slightly better stats on the road. I’m positive that Josh faces louder crowds when he is on the field on the road than at home, when fans generally try to quiet down and let the offense do their thing.

[Big Turk]

Just now, Watkins101 said:

I really don’t get why people blame crowd noise at home for why Josh has slightly better stats on the road. I’m positive that Josh faces louder crowds when he is on the field on the road than at home, when fans generally try to quiet down and let the offense do their thing.

 

I don't think its crowd noise at home, I think it's him wanting to put on a show for the fans more at home and/or pushing too hard.  Seems to let the game come to him more on the road and takes what he is given more often.

[aceman_16]

27 minutes ago, 13 Second Prevent Defense said:

8 games per year is a small sample, 3 or 4 of them being affected by weather has an impact.  How was  he in the three home playoff games?   Quite outstanding.....this is a red herring, sometimes stats do lie, and you have to dive deeper.

And IF we are to take OP's theory seriously we need to counter with some of his "best home games" were playoff games where the crowds were the loudest. If we take the theory of sugar high Josh at home the combo of playoff pressure, playoff crowd noise he would "significantly" be worse at these moments....fun fact ...he wasnt.

[Process]

15 minutes ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

He has had about 30 home games in his career and at least 6 of them have been terrible weather. That is 20% while road weather has not been as bad. Weather could definitely be the only reason for the difference

6 last year alone lol

 

1 minute ago, Big Turk said:

 

Maybe.  It fits with why the splits were almost identical in the year there were no fans and skewed towards the road in the year before and year after.  Why would it be that hard to believe when he readily admits he is too hyped for home games and has to calm himself down?  Are you calling him a liar?

 

 

In the first home playoff game with fans in a billion years last season, against a division rival, he had one of the best games by a QB in NFL history. 

 

He plays his best in prime time under the lights. 

 

To suggest it's because of nerves at this point is absurd. 

 

This is a silly thread, Buffalo weather effin sucks it's as simple as that. But I'll give you a pass since it's the off-season and there is nothing else to talk about. 

[teef]

9 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Oh man.  
 

Do you really think Josh allen is worse playing at home because he’s too hyped? 
 

do you REALLY believe this to be true?

remember, this topic was to a point last year where certain people preferred having playoff games on the road.  

[Mark80]

Sample sets need to be at least 100 before being statistically significant.  Sample set is too small still.

[NewEra]

1 minute ago, Big Turk said:

Why?  It is a completely valid observation backed by clear statistical evidence.

You’re assuming that the reason is being too hyped…..

 

Please show the statistical evidence that proves when he is “too hyped” and when he isn’t?  Is it JUST playing at home?  He played terrible @ jacksonville…maybe he was “too hyped” for that game?  
 

To prove what you are trying to explain (he’s too hyped playing in front of the home crowd), you must show when or when he is not “too hyped” which is impossible. Was he too hyped vs the pats in the playoff game?  Vs the colts in the playoff game?  Two of his best games ever…..and they were at home in front of the home fans.  He MUST have been “too hyped” amirite?  At home in the playoffs….

 

what is the criteria for being “too hyped”…… 

and how can you differentiate between being too hyped and not?  Is he too hyped before every home game?  Because that’s what’s you’re insinuating by using all of his home stats as support.

 

Meanwhile we play in windiest stadium in the league….BY FAR.  Several of the away games (which your insinuating that he wouldn’t be too hyped for) are played in domes with no elements.  There are too many variable that you aren’t including.  
 

either way you want to see it, I think you’re just wasting your time (and ours for reading it) with this thought.  
 

carry on

8 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Maybe.  It fits with why the splits were almost identical in the year there were no fans and skewed towards the road in the year before and year after.  Why would it be that hard to believe when he readily admits he is too hyped for home games and has to calm himself down?  Are you calling him a liar?

 

 

Yeah that’s it man.  Case closed.  Josh gets too hyped at home and sucks…..sometimes 

[RobbRiddick]

Josh has a dil*o phobia. Had a bad experience with one once

[H2o]

I think it's a combination of things. He's had one set of common opponents on the road and at home in those years. The Pats, Fins, and Jets. The quality of opponents faced at home vs otr need to be taken into account. The weather? Sure, that's a factor as well, but you have to take into account the rest of the variables. Josh also used to have a tough time controlling his emotions early on. As he has matured, that has changed also. He has always had the affinity for clutch moments, but now is just turning into an absolute cold blooded assassin out there. His mentality is starting to remind me of another QB we faced for a long time. The best is yet to come. Home, on the road, whatever. 

[ExiledInIllinois]

Native burial ground.