Gunner's roster thread 2022

[SoCal Deek]

I'm curious whether anyone think "AJE" would have any trade/swap value? I think it's happened in the past where teams swap young players who may not fit their scheme or roster spots at the time.  In this example the Bills would be looking to swap for a young CB or OL who another team either hasn't seen the amount of development they'd hoped or who is on a stacked roster so won't get any playing time. I'm not voting for this....but more reacting to those saying he's a "lock" to be on the final 53.

[CapeBreton]

18 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

His appearances at fullback were too rare too be meaningful. 14% of snaps.  He's not on the roster for that.  

 

 

Most teams don't bother with FB/H-back.  Sweeney had twice as many snaps.

Gilliam is quite versatile, Bills coaching loves that so I think he makes the team.

[John from Riverside]

25 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

I'm curious whether anyone think "AJE" would have any trade/swap value? I think it's happened in the past where teams swap young players who may not fit their scheme or roster spots at the time.  In this example the Bills would be looking to swap for a young CB or OL who another team either hasn't seen the amount of development they'd hoped or who is on a stacked roster so won't get any playing time. I'm not voting for this....but more reacting to those saying he's a "lock" to be on the final 53.

Been thinking about this for a while.   We are extremely heavy at DE to me with the same types of players......I actually like Shaq Lawson.....he seems like a perfect candidate for a trade

[MasterStrategist]

1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:

I'm curious whether anyone think "AJE" would have any trade/swap value? I think it's happened in the past where teams swap young players who may not fit their scheme or roster spots at the time.  In this example the Bills would be looking to swap for a young CB or OL who another team either hasn't seen the amount of development they'd hoped or who is on a stacked roster so won't get any playing time. I'm not voting for this....but more reacting to those saying he's a "lock" to be on the final 53.

I look at this way:

 

1. AJE is still 'young'/developing: we all know by now that his rookie nfl strength/conditioning did not go to plan. Extreme weight loss/COVID forced these guys to spend much more time "virtually". He showed brief flashes last season/overall improvement, I think it's worth being patient to see if that continues.  

 

2. Dline rotation: we know that our dline rotates heavily.  Need 4 solid players.  He's in competition for #3 role, but he's also 1 injury away from being "for sure" in our top 4, for those viewing him and Shaq as competing for the 4th spot.  Likely to keep 5 DEs on the 53 roster as well.

 

3.  Trade value: what do we truly gain by trading a depth/young developing piece?  You risk jumping the gun perse, and becoming a Wyatt Teller/Jerry Hughes type.  But let's say AJE is already close or at his ceiling, what position would we target?  OL - maybe, DB - not likely, unless Tre is behind rehab schedule.  

 

 

Bottom line, I see more value in seeing if he turns into a valuable piece.  Too quick to give up on a player at a premium position, on a cheap rookie deal, and think that whoever we trade for will make this team/receive PT similar to what AJE likely will.  After this season, sure.

[frostbitmic]

QB - Agree

RB - If Cook wins the #2 job I think they'll try and get a 7th for Duke and Moss will play the Yeldon Role. Taiwan Jones will make the team.

WR - I think Kumerow and Stevenson are probably blue and McKittrick and Crowder make the roster

TE - Sweeney is probably blue unless the rookie Wydermyer beats him out.

OL - Boettger could be put on PUP or IR and if so I think Mancz and Ford make it.

 

DL - Agree and I think Epenesa makes the team and shines. Apparently he had a great camp last year but he didn't get a lot of playing time behind Hughes and Addison

LB - Dodson and Smith are probably blue

CB - Benford is probably blue, they lost Wildgoose last year from the PS, they might keep him on the roster. I have a feeling he might be a pleasant surprise.

P - Unless Araiza really sucks at holding, I think he's a lock and Haack will be sent packing.

 

Once again thanks for your analysis.

[SoCal Deek]

25 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

I look at this way:

 

1. AJE is still 'young'/developing: we all know by now that his rookie nfl strength/conditioning did not go to plan. Extreme weight loss/COVID forced these guys to spend much more time "virtually". He showed brief flashes last season/overall improvement, I think it's worth being patient to see if that continues.  

 

2. Dline rotation: we know that our dline rotates heavily.  Need 4 solid players.  He's in competition for #3 role, but he's also 1 injury away from being "for sure" in our top 4, for those viewing him and Shaq as competing for the 4th spot.  Likely to keep 5 DEs on the 53 roster as well.

 

3.  Trade value: what do we truly gain by trading a depth/young developing piece?  You risk jumping the gun perse, and becoming a Wyatt Teller/Jerry Hughes type.  But let's say AJE is already close or at his ceiling, what position would we target?  OL - maybe, DB - not likely, unless Tre is behind rehab schedule.  

 

 

Bottom line, I see more value in seeing if he turns into a valuable piece.  Too quick to give up on a player at a premium position, on a cheap rookie deal, and think that whoever we trade for will make this team/receive PT similar to what AJE likely will.  After this season, sure.

All good points. My comment is in reference to the term ‘lock’. I can see the classic change of scenery swap happening. Is it likely? Probably not. However is Epenesa a ‘lock’…again probably not. 

[Alphadawg7]

On 5/17/2022 at 3:37 AM, GunnerBill said:

I used to do this thread each year but haven't done one for a couple of years. In a quiet moment yesterday afternoon I sat down with the roster and tried to work out where I think the decision points will come. So I thought I'd revive this thread as a way of helping crystalise my thoughts. 

 

Firstly, this is not a roster prediction, people will start putting together 53s at this stage but my view is always that those last handful of spots are really difficult to correctly forecast until camp and pre-season arrive. This is more about starting to focus in on where the position battles are and where the position v position decisions will come. 

 

Key - see colour codes below.... these are important, because red does not mean cut and blue does not mean on the bubble. 

 

BLACK - Guaranteed roster spot (excluding major injury or suspension)

BLUE - Probable roster spot

RED - Fighting for those last few spots

 

 

Quarterback

Josh Allen

Case Keenum

Matt Barkley

 

Running back

Devin Singletary

James Cook

Reggie Gilliam FB

Zack Moss

Taiwan Jones

Duke Johnson

Raheem Blackshear

 

Wide receiver

Stefon Diggs

Gabriel Davis

Khalil Shakir

Jamison Crowder

Isaiah McKenzie

Jake Kumerow

Marquez Stevenson

Tanner Gentry

Isaiah Hodgins

Neil Pau'u

Malik Williams

 

Tight End

Dawson Knox

O. J. Howard

Quintin Morris

Tommy Sweeney

Jalen Wydermyer

 

Offensive Line

Dion Dawkins 

Spencer Brown 

Rodger Saffold 

Mitch Morse

Ryan Bates

Ike Boettger 

Tommy Doyle 

David Quessenberry 

Cody Ford 

Greg Mancz 

Bobby Hart 

Luke Tenuta 

Will Ulmer

Derek Kerstetter

Jacob Capra 

Alec Anderson

Tanner Owen 

 

Defensive Line

Ed Oliver 

Von Miller 

Gregory Rousseau

DaQuan Jones 

Carlos Basham Jr. 

Tim Settle

Jordan Phillips 

A. J. Epenesa

Shaq Lawson 

Mike Love 

Eli Ankou

Kingsley Jonathan 

Brandin Bryant 

 

Linebacker

Tremaine Edmunds

Matt Milano 

Terrel Bernard

Tyler Matakevich 

Tyrel Dodson

Andre Smith 

Baylon Spector 

Joe Giles-Harris

Marquel Lee

 

Cornerback

Tre'Davious White

Kaiir Elam

Taron Johnson

Dane Jackson

Siran Neal 

Christian Benford

Cam Lewis

Travon Fuller

Olaijah Griffin

Tim Harris

Nick McCloud

 

Safety

Jordan Poyer

Micah Hyde

Jaquan Johnson

Damar Hamlin

Josh Thomas

 

Special Teams

Tyler Bass

Reid Ferguson

Matt Araiza

Matt Haack

 

 

I make that 33 locks and 9 likelys leaving 11 spots for the rest to fight over. Obviously one of those is the winner of the punter battle - which I fully expect to be Araiza, but while the Bills are saying it is a camp battle they both have to be in red. That takes you down to 10 spots. At least 1 more linebacker, at least 1 more offensive lineman, at least 1 more safety and at least 1 more WR/RB.... that takes you down to 6 and then it becomes a question about which spots they want to prioritise having extra depth and special teams. I expect one of Kumerow and Taiwan Jones to make it as a starting gunner but unless Kumerow is legit the 6th best receiver (and maybe he will be) then I wouldn't expect both of them. I expect another corner to make it and Benford as the recent draft pick would seem to have the inside track and then I expect another tight end.... but I am not totally persuaded that guy has to come from the current roster. Could be an area where a vet shakes loose and the Bills scoop him up. 

 

Everyhing here is fairly straight forward and honestly rather obvious.  Not a knock on you putting this together, more a credit to the roster and team Beane built.  There are not a lot of spots open, and it really comes down to mostly guys who wont see the field much even if they make the roster.  

 

The only differing opinion I would have at any spot is I do think Ford should be in blue.  I don't disagree that this is an important camp for him and his future likely hinges on this camp and preseason.  But they have more invested in him, so I think he would have to have a really bad camp/preseason to be in danger of flat out being cut.  

 

I think the more likely scenario if they move on from Ford is to trade him, and he should get some trade value back.  So that is the main reason I would put him in blue, as I think he has a bigger chance to stick on the roster during cut downs while they try and trade him as opposed to some of the other guys.  Then they would just sign back someone later once Ford was moved.  

[FLFan]

9 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

 

So my scenario essentially comes down to a logjam at slot receiver. It is basically thus, they are not cutting Shakir and so if:

 

- None of the three slot receivers win the return job; and

- None of the three convince as an option to play outside;

 

Then whoever is the less convincing of the two could be sacrificed to make room for Kumerow as a backup wide receiver and starting gunner (if he wins that job) and a third proper outside guy (whether that be Hodgins or Stevenson.)

 

I don't think it is particularly likely. I think they are both going to be on the team. But that is my scenario. 

Your scenario is certainly possible.  I, like the Bills I am sure, are hoping Hodgins or Stevenson can step up on the outside to make Kumerow totally expendable.  I never want to see him playing receiver, and while he was good on special teams, they do not need both he and Jones.  Teach someone else for crying out loud.

 

Crowder and Shakir absolutely make the 53.  I agree with MacKenzie in Blue but I think he sticks as returner and gadget guy.  Stevenson needs to play WR to make the team, on the outside, in my opinion.

[Richard Noggin]

13 hours ago, No_Matter_What said:

 

 

Can you guys elaborate these scenarios?

 

Last year we started with 6 WRs with Stevenson on IR, in second half of the season we kept 7 on the roster.

 

Crowder is a proven vet, who was very good with sub par QB play, has a very low cap hit (good reason to keep him) and almost the same dead money if cut (even better reason to keep him).

 

If he doesn't make the roster then we are keeping only 6 WRs and including Kumerow (who was so far apparently kept for his ST play) and Stevenson/Hodgins ahead of him? Sorry, I don't buy it. Doesn't make any sense to me.

 

If they want to keep either Stevenson or Hodgins, then we are either keeping 7 WRs (which I fully expect) or we find other ST solution and Kumerow is cut.

 

EDIT: Same goes for McKenzie, but ok, with him I can imagine some weird scenario where he doesn't make it. But the chances are som slim that he is a lock in my eyes too.

 

 

Crowder doesn't offer special teams value like McKenzie (and Kumerow), and future promise like Shakir or possibly Stevenson (or maybe Hodgins?). There ARE possibilities for keeping only 6 and Crowder not being one of them. I don't actually think that will happen, but to disregard it out of hand seems like a leap. 

[No_Matter_What]

19 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

 

So my scenario essentially comes down to a logjam at slot receiver. It is basically thus, they are not cutting Shakir and so if:

 

- None of the three slot receivers win the return job; and

- None of the three convince as an option to play outside;

 

Then whoever is the less convincing of the two could be sacrificed to make room for Kumerow as a backup wide receiver and starting gunner (if he wins that job) and a third proper outside guy (whether that be Hodgins or Stevenson.)

 

I don't think it is particularly likely. I think they are both going to be on the team. But that is my scenario. 

 

Ok. But I think that even if everything you mention happens the obvious solution will be keeping 7 WRs. We kept 7 last year once Stevenson got back from IR - he basically took Zimmer's spot and we won't keep 11 DL like last year. Therefore I don't think that you scenario is an option.

 

6 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

Crowder doesn't offer special teams value like McKenzie (and Kumerow), and future promise like Shakir or possibly Stevenson (or maybe Hodgins?). There ARE possibilities for keeping only 6 and Crowder not being one of them. I don't actually think that will happen, but to disregard it out of hand seems like a leap. 

 

Like I said above, we are not keeping 6 WRs if it meant cutting Crowder. Agree to disagree I guess.