Vegas oddsmakers really like the Bills

[Big Turk]

2 hours ago, Process said:

Very surprising that we are bigger favorites at KC(-1.5) than at Bal (-1) and at Cin(pick em). 

 

Right now my favorite play is Bills -1 at Baltimore. I think we will handle them. But there is a chance for a let down game being after two prime times and a division opponent.

Baltimore does nothing on offense against our D the last few times...only that one long play to Hayden hurt us...other than that we held them in check 

[boater]

Amplifying comment to the thread title: Bettors really like the Bills

Quote

A professional oddsmaker uses his knowledge of sports to calculate odds, choose favorites and set the point spread so that betting action is balanced on both sides. Casinos hire oddsmakers for their experience and success in predicting how the betting public will place their money for any given event.

The oddsmakers feel that many bettors will like the Bills.

[FilthyBeast]

4 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

-1.5 at KC is the biggest shocker. I guess Vegas considers Tyreek Hill to be a huge loss.

 

It's great the Bills are getting all this love but I wouldn't put much stock in these point spreads.

 

It's like reading into political polls months before an election and that's the same deal here with these lines, many things can and will change between now and the start of the regular season.

[julian]

3 hours ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

It's great the Bills are getting all this love but I wouldn't put much stock in these point spreads.

 

It's like reading into political polls months before an election and that's the same deal here with these lines, many things can and will change between now and the start of the regular season.

These spreads reflect one thing… when you have the leagues best QB you’re expected to win every week.

 

 I’m here for it.

 

 

[sirebors]

11 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

 

 

Our first 7 games are absolutely brutal. The schedule then gets considerably easier. 

[1ManRaid]

So technically, we are neutral site favorites against every team on the schedule.  Favored by more than 3 for every home game, and either coin flip or less than 3 point dogs in the two road games we aren't favorites.  Has this ever happened?

[beebe]

These offseason lines where they line every game after schedule release are typically pretty formulaic, have low limits, and often are very soft. And sometimes they simply make mistakes and post wrong lines. You can apply basic logic and end up making pretty decent bets just off mispricings. 

 

The Bills have two common games with the Chiefs when factoring in home field (both host Titans, both travel to Cincy).

 

Bills are -7 vs Titans

Bills are pk at Bengals 

 

Chiefs are -5 vs Titans 

Chiefs are pk at Bengals 

 

The only other common opponent is the Rams. The Bills are +1 at Rams while the Chiefs are 2.5-pt home favorites vs the Rams. 

 

HFA in the NFL is closer to 2-2.5 pts these days. If the Bills were hosting the Rams, they would be -3 or possibly -3.5 (from a power rating standpoint it would be Bills -4, but it's typically tougher to cross the key -3.) 

 

More comparisons from DraftKings lines: 

 

Packers at Bucs -3.5

Packers at Bills -4

Chiefs at Bucs -2.5

Bills -1.5 at Chiefs

 

If you remove HFA for all these games, the lines would be: 

 

Packers vs Bucs -1

Packers vs Bills -1.5

Chiefs pk vs Bucs

Bills -4 vs Chiefs 

 

From the above, we can infer that the Bills are 0.5 pts better than the Bucs, who are even with the Chiefs, but the Chiefs are ... 4 points worse than the Bills? Well that doesn't make much sense.

 

Now let's look at the same Bills-Chiefs line, but place it next to two other Bills road games: 

 

Bills -3 at Patriots

Bills -3.5 at Dolphins

Bills -1.5 at Chiefs

 

This would imply the Chiefs are just 1.5 pts better than the Patriots, and just 2 pts better than the Dolphins. Well, even DraftKings doesn't think those teams are in the same stratosphere as the Chiefs. KC's Super Bowl odds are 10-1, whereas the Dolphins (40-1) and Patriots (50-1) are extreme long shots. The Chiefs have the hardest division (and hardest overall schedule) in recent memory, and their season win total at DK is priced at 10.5 while the Dolphins (9) and Pats (8.5) are quite a bit lower despite having easier schedules. 

 

Overall, the Bills are and should be rated the best team in the NFL. But it's not by much. They're about 1-2 points better than the Bucs, Chiefs, Packers, Rams; and perhaps 3-4 points better than the Bengals, Chargers, Ravens, Broncos, 49ers (who knows what order these teams belong in, all are potentially very good teams.) 

[Utah John]

On 5/13/2022 at 7:30 AM, The Wiz said:

Hill was responsible for 1/4 of their receiving yards last season. 

 

I would say that is definitely a big loss. 

Along with his yards, he also forced defenses not to play Kelce as tightly as they would otherwise have done.  I think KC will struggle this year more than people expect.  They could even finish third in the AFCW.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Bills were favored at home over the Steelers week 1 last season. Let's just play the games and stop all the hype.

 

Oh and what happened to all the posters that say the Bills get no attention from the media???

[NewEra]

6 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Bills were favored at home over the Steelers week 1 last season. Let's just play the games and stop all the hype.

 

Oh and what happened to all the posters that say the Bills get no attention from the media???

What happened to you being a pillar of positivity?  Oh wait…

[BigDingus]

On 5/13/2022 at 10:54 AM, HappyDays said:

 

My early bold prediction is that LA is the only AFCW team to make the playoffs, but I'll wait to see how long Watson is suspended. If he plays most of the year I think 3 AFCN teams will make it, the AFCS winner, the Bills, and one of the Dolphins or Pats will sneak in as the 3rd wildcard team. That leaves one spot for the AFCW winner.

 

Definitely a bold prediction. Feel like I should bookmark this in case you're right, as I haven't heard anyone suggest that. I'm more in line with media "experts" suggesting the AFCW could have all 4 teams in the postseason lol

 

In reality, I don't think that'll happen unless the rest of the AFC just underperforms significantly, though 3 teams seems doable. I think the East, West & South get 2 teams, the North gets 1. 

 

I don't have much faith in the Browns or Steelers, though if I had to pick 1, I'd still pick Tomlin to figure it out over the Browns. The Ravens could be fighting for the division too, but that's all dependent on Lamar staying healthy. Cincy would still be my favorite.

 

So there's my way too early, not very bold prediction 😆 

[Utah John]

4 hours ago, BigDingus said:

 

Definitely a bold prediction. Feel like I should bookmark this in case you're right, as I haven't heard anyone suggest that. I'm more in line with media "experts" suggesting the AFCW could have all 4 teams in the postseason lol

 

In reality, I don't think that'll happen unless the rest of the AFC just underperforms significantly, though 3 teams seems doable. I think the East, West & South get 2 teams, the North gets 1. 

 

I don't have much faith in the Browns or Steelers, though if I had to pick 1, I'd still pick Tomlin to figure it out over the Browns. The Ravens could be fighting for the division too, but that's all dependent on Lamar staying healthy. Cincy would still be my favorite.

 

So there's my way too early, not very bold prediction 😆 

I think the thinking behind the prediction that only one AFCW team makes the playoffs is that they'll all beat each other up, not only inflicting losses on each other, but finding ways to punish each other physically.  That's one very tough division.    I don't buy the theory, though, since all four teams could accumulate enough wins outside their division to make it.

[Saxum]

18 hours ago, NewEra said:

What happened to you being a pillar of positivity?  Oh wait…

 

He is channeling his inner Scott.

[eball]

On 5/14/2022 at 10:23 AM, Ethan in Portland said:

Bills were favored at home over the Steelers week 1 last season. Let's just play the games and stop all the hype.

 

Oh and what happened to all the posters that say the Bills get no attention from the media???

I’ll stand behind what I said before the 2020 season (look it up). That was the year I predicted we would win 12, and 2021 is when I predicted we would start dominating. Well, we lost a couple we shouldn’t have last year (PIT, TEN, JAX) but were 13 seconds from hosting the AFCC.  These lines don’t surprise me one bit because the oddsmakers and schedule-makers know what I know…we’re the best goddamn team in the league with the best QB. 
 

Now is our time. Sit back and enjoy. 
 

[hemma]

ESPN just put us at #1 in their power ratings.  

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/33899053/nfl-power-rankings-2022-offseason-1-32-poll-plus-players-benefited-most-draft-trades

I can remember long threads where we were trying to justify getting off #28.

 

life is good.

[FilthyBeast]

On 5/13/2022 at 4:38 PM, julian said:

These spreads reflect one thing… when you have the leagues best QB you’re expected to win every week.

 

 I’m here for it.

 

 

 

Agree, but we aren't going 17-0 next year and it's still a bit silly to think we will actually be favored against the Chiefs in KC unless Mahomes is hurt or they are complete garbage this year.

[Big Turk]

On 5/13/2022 at 10:50 PM, sirebors said:

 

Our first 7 games are absolutely brutal. The schedule then gets considerably easier. 

 

Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Miami are not games I would consider "brutal"

Edited May 16, 2022 by Big Turk

[FilthyBeast]

15 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Miami are not games I would consider "brutal"

 

We lost to both TEN and PIT last year despite neither of them having great QB play, especially the latter which was at home.

 

Ravens are being overlooked IMO and will be right back in the championship picture if LJ is healthy and they don't lose half their roster to IR again.

 

Miami obviously looking to break out this year and finally beat the Bills again.

 

The more I think about it I will not be shocked if the Bills get off to a bad/slow start this year similar to Chiefs last year before the schedule eases up and they put together a dominant run.

[Nextmanup]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Miami are not games I would consider "brutal"

The thing to remember with these pre-season schedule assessments is that you (and me and everyone else) are basing their estimates on what teams looked like LAST year and not THIS year.

 

Some good teams that would provide a tough game last year will not be so this year.  Which ones no one knows.

 

Some bad teams last year which would be an easy out will turn things around this year and give us really tough games. Who they are (right now) no one knows.

 

Then there are ALWAYS the games we should win but lose, and the games we should lose but win.

 

It will be a week to week struggle/battle just as it always is, and it is NEVER as easy as it looks on paper.

 

 

Edited May 16, 2022 by Nextmanup

[Big Turk]

51 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

We lost to both TEN and PIT last year despite neither of them having great QB play, especially the latter which was at home.

 

Ravens are being overlooked IMO and will be right back in the championship picture if LJ is healthy and they don't lose half their roster to IR again.

 

Miami obviously looking to break out this year and finally beat the Bills again.

 

The more I think about it I will not be shocked if the Bills get off to a bad/slow start this year similar to Chiefs last year before the schedule eases up and they put together a dominant run.

 

Pittsburgh was a fluky game to begin the season featuring a punt block TD.  Play that game 50 times, the Steelers probably win it 5 times or less.  The sun shone brightly on them that day. Tennessee lost their #1 WR this offseason and won that game thanks to Allen slipping.  I doubt either of those games is within one score in a Bills win.

 

We wrote the blueprint on how to limit the Ravens offense and they pretty much did next to nothing offensively against us in the last two games save for a 61 yard TD pass.  I am not scared of their pop gun offense that has no viable WR threats.  They will win their share of games, but we are a terrible matchup for them.

 

And the Dolphins...what is there to say.  They have lost by an average of 20 points a game to us since Allen has been here.  Nice offseason additions, but Tua and company didn't make up 20 points.

6 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

The thing to remember with these pre-season schedule assessments is that you (and me and everyone else) are basing their estimates on what teams looked like LAST year and not THIS year.

 

Some good teams that would provide a tough game last year will not be so this year.  Which ones no one knows.

 

Some bad teams last year which would be an easy out will turn things around this year and give us really tough games. Who they are (right now) no one knows.

 

Then there are ALWAYS the games we should win but lose, and the games we should lose but win.

 

It will be a week to week struggle/battle just as it always is, and it is NEVER as easy as it looks on paper.

 

 

 

Yeah that is obviously going to happen to some degree or another but the Bills have added firepower to the offense which was already among the best in the NFL and routinely beat teams by multiple scores even when they didn't play that well last year.  I think they are on a mission from day 1 this year.  They know they have no time to rest on their laurels this year...everyone is gunning for them.

Edited May 16, 2022 by Big Turk