2022 Season Stats Predictions - Offense

[H2o]

2021 was another good statistical year for Bills players. It helps when you have "The Creature", Josh Allen, at QB. In 2021 Josh had another MVP caliber season and there is no reason to think that will not continue. In 2022 we see the infusion of a bunch of new players on this offense. I'll go over some numbers from 2021 and predict what I think things will look like in each area for 2022. 

 

In 2021, Josh Allen had 409 completions at a 63.3% clip for 4,407 yds, 36 TD's, and 15 INT's. With the addition of Saffold, the retaining of Bates, Brown going into his 2nd year, and Dawkins/Morse still as mainstays there is no reason to think Josh will not be able to repeat this effort or expand upon it considering the evolution we saw in the Playoffs last year. Not to mention how hard the guy works in the offseason perfecting different parts of his game.

 

In 2022:

I think Josh puts up big numbers and is in the MVP discussion once again, if not finally getting the nod. I'm guessing between 4,700-5,200 yards passing, completion percentage up to between 65-68%, somewhere around 44-50 TD's, 8-12 INT's, 400-600 yards rushing, and another 6-8 TD's on the ground. 

 

In 2021, Singletary led the Bills in rushing attempts and yards with 188 carries for 870 yards. Josh was 2nd with 122 carries for 763 yards. Josh was also the leader in rushing TD's with 9, Singletary coming in 2nd with 7. Moss was relatively ineffective with 96 carries for for 345 yards, a measly 3.6 ypc clip. This year we added Duke Johnson in FA and James Cook through the draft. I fully expect Cook to be 2nd man up behind Singletary. With the expectation of more 12 personnel (having signed OJ Howard in the offseason), and having Aaron Kromer back as OL coach, I expect a more effective run game this year. I also expect Josh's designed carries to be down from the previous years with Daboll having moved on. Singletary, though not fast, is one of the most shifty RB's in the NFL. The biggest question surrounding the RB's is who fills that 3rd spot. Will it be Moss or Duke Johnson? How much was Moss actually hampered by the lingering effects of the ankle injury? My gut still tells me that the Bills will keep the guy they drafted in Moss over Duke Johnson. I think the main variable in who will be the rushing leader is how they use James Cook. Is he going to be more of a spot carry kind of guy who is used more as a receiving option out of the backfield or are they going to let him have 10-15 carries a game?

 

In 2022:

I'm going to say Singletary will lead the team in carries, but Cook will lead the team in rushing yards due to the fact he is a dual threat as a receiver and a RB. Defenses will have a harder time trying to figure out what is going on with him on the field and it will lead to lanes being open in the running game more often. I don't expect either back to eclipse 1,000 yards on the ground though. I still think Josh could end up being the leader in rushing TD's because of how he operates once we are in the Red Zone, but I expect Cook to have the most rushing TD's of the RB's because of the speed he brings to the field. I also think Moss will be the short yardage vulture who gets most of the carries around the goal line. Cook will lead the team with around 700-900 yds on the ground getting 6-8 TD's in the run game. Singletary will have somewhere between 500-700 yds on the ground with 4-6 TD's. Josh will be somewhere in the 400-600 yd with 6-8 TD's. Moss will only get about 300-400 yds again, but will be used at the goal line vulturing 3-5 TD's on the ground. 

 

In 2021, Diggs was Allen's favorite target once again and led the Bills in every statistical category. He had 103 receptions on 163 targets, for 1,225 yards, and 10 TD's. Cole Beasley had the 2nd most targets with 112 and Sanders 3rd with 72. Both Cole and Emmanuel are gone. That leaves 184 targets up for grabs if we throw the ball at the same clip in 2022. The addition of Crowder is a low key, big time signing imo. I think he will flourish in this offense and have the best year of his career, similar to Beasley when he came over from Dallas. Also, I see Crowder as having bigger YAC potential than Beasley playing out of the Slot position. Gabe is going to get his shot at being the full time #2 in this offense as well this year. McKenzie is still McKenzie, and he has produced when given the opportunity. He will see more time on the field as well in the passing game, and not just as a gadget player. Knox is still going to be a favorite target of Allen as well and hopefully he continues to build off of the massive improvement he showed last year. I see OJ Howard and James Cook as the two wild cards here in the passing game for this offense. OJ was definitely a gifted athlete coming out of Alabama, but has battled injuries and kind of ended up in the dog house for whatever reason in Tampa. Arians also doesn't make much use of TE's in the passing game. Brady did though and he brought his favorite target, Gronk, with him. I expect this will be Howard's chance to really show what he can do. IF he can stay healthy and if the athletic ability finally translates to production with a fresh start. James Cook was by many accounts the best receiving RB in the draft. He can catch the ball out of the backfield, he can line up in the slot, and is generally a matchup problem for opposing defenses. Then you have to take into account the multi-talented Khalil Shakir. I generally don't expect much out of Rookie WR's, but this young man has speed, excellent hands, excellent body control, and does work in the open field after getting the ball in his hands. 

 

In 2022: 

 

Diggs is still going to be Allen's go-to guy. He will lead the team in targets, catches, yards, and TD's once again. Don't be surprised to see an uptick from last year and back closer to his 2020 numbers. I actually expect the additions of Crowder, OJ Howard as TE#2, Cook as a receiving option out of the backfield, and Davis taking over full time as the #2 WR to create more opportunities for Diggs. Teams won't be able to throw so much focus on him without leaving the field open for the other threats in this offense. That is why we paid him top tier money extending his contract. Diggs is a true #1 and he's going to eat out there on the field. I see Gabe coming in 2nd with around 100 targets, somewhere around 70-80 catches, for around 1,000-1,100 yds, and 8-10 TD's. I see Crowder coming in 3rd with around 60-70 catches, for around 900-1,000 yds, and 6-8 TD's. McKenzie will see an uptick with 35-45 catches, for 350-450 yds, and 4-6 TD's. I think Shakir also gets his feet wet with somewhere between 20-30 catches, for about 200-250 yds, and 2-4 TD's. I see Knox having a very similar year to 2021 for the simple fact that Josh has so many options on offense now and I believe that Howard will somewhat cut into his ability to see more targets. I think OJ Howard surprises some people with 40-50 catches for around 500 yds and 6-8 TD's. This is also where I think Cook is really going to make a difference, in the receiving game. Even though I think he will lead the team in rushing yards, I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility to see him catch 50-60 passes out of the backfield, for 500-600 yds, and get another 5 TD's. Cook's presence is going to open up things even more for guys strictly running pass routes.  

 

In summary, I know Daboll is gone and Dorsey is taking over as OC. I know that Joe Brady has taken over as QB Coach. I know we have Aaron Kromer back as OL Coach. I know the system will be a bit different. I know there has been a little OL shuffling. But all in all, I am expecting this to be the most prolific offense in Buffalo Bills history. It's going to be "pick your poison" for opposing defenses. Who can you double without leaving the next guy (or multiple guys) open? If you try to shut down the underneath stuff with Crowder/McKenzie/Shakir/Cook/whatever TE then Josh is going to beat you over the top with Davis or Diggs. If you take away the down field shots then Josh is going to pick you apart in the short to intermediate area with Cook/TE's/Crowder/McKenzie/Shakir/Diggs/Davis. If you try to lock down the guys on the outside then Howard/Knox/Crowder/McKenzie/Shakir/Cook are going to eat you alive up the seams. If you're dropping 7 strictly into coverage then Cook/Singletary/Either Moss or Johnson are going to get chunks of yards on the ground. I mean seriously, this offense is going to be hard to handle for any and every opposing defense in the NFL. This is going to be the year it all comes together and we can have balance when balance is needed. 

[Greg S]

I think we run a more balanced offense this year with Dorsey with 2 TE sets. I think Allen's numbers will decline but that's not a bad thing. I think Singletary will run more and put up better numbers. Overall I think Buffalo's offense will be very good with all the weapons we have. Plus with a better run game that will open things up for Allen in the passing game. 

[Don Otreply]

We will be harder to contain on offense, for all of the above reasons, couple that with what at least on paper is a better D, and we will be a serious problem for most every team we play. 
 

lots of points yards, and wins 👍

Edited May 12, 2022 by Don Otreply

[machine gun kelly]

Water, you were on a roll this morning.  I just read it, and impressed.  Not sure if all you’re predictions come true, but you’re thoughts and guesses are not off.  You put a lot of work into this post so thank you!

 

I know Jeremy poo pooed me talking to him about more 12 personnel, simply because we did it so little, but the point is we now have Howard.  The guy is impressive when healthy.

 

This is the most complete team we’ve had since I can remember and I’m in my early 50’s.

[Don Otreply]

9 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Don’t expect a more balanced offense(at least I hope not)…. I expect a better, more efficient running game… the offense should still be Josh Allen centric. 

It will be, 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

I see Davis leading the team in receiving yards and TD's this year. Diggs probably still leading in receptions. Both go over 1,000 yards on the season. Neither goes over 1,250. I'd like to see Cook chip in with 70+ receptions in his rookie year.