Alphas Draft thoughts...Our picks, post draft Bills, and Beane

[The Dean]

9 minutes ago, Casey D said:

Singletary I think

 

Duh! Thanks.  Dunno where my head is at today.  Thanks

7 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Thanks, and I was talking about Devin Singletary  

 

Got it. My bad

[eball]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Love his accountability too like when he openly admitted to getting the Teller decision wrong and wished he gave him more time.  A mistake he said he wont make again...which is probably some insight to why Ford is still here despite a lot of people thinking they would trade or cut him by now.  I bet he wants to see what Kromer thinks of him and do with working with him

 

First of all, thanks for the great post, but this paragraph should be required reading for everyone wanting to kick Cody Ford to the curb.  I agree that Beane being willing to own up to the Teller mistake says a lot about his integrity, honesty, and lack of ego.

 

I laugh inwardly every time I read a post about how Beane will keep draft picks who shouldn’t be on the team only because he doesn’t want to admit he was wrong.

 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Overall good write up, have seen two 2023 mock drafts and both have the Bills picking #32.  Kind of scary.  Trying to recall in the early 90's were they ever the pre-season favorite to win the SB??

 

Only comment I will add is assuming Aariza wins the punting job which is highly likely, he will be holding for Bass.  No one else will be trained to do it, very unlikely.  We could be fine with him doing it, will see.  Besides if you're going to train someone, then it may as well be Araiza.  You'd think with him having kicked himself, he'd be very understanding of the need for precision WRT holding.

[The Dean]

4 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

Overall good write up, have seen two 2023 mock drafts and both have the Bills picking #32.  Kind of scary.  Trying to recall in the early 90's were they ever the pre-season favorite to win the SB??

 

Only comment I will add is assuming Aariza wins the punting job which is highly likely, he will be holding for Bass.  No one else will be trained to do it, very unlikely.  We could be fine with him doing it, will see.  Besides if you're going to train someone, then it may as well be Araiza.  You'd think with him having kicked himself, he'd be very understanding of the need for precision WRT holding.

 

 

Agree for the most part.  Even if Araiza is a great holder,  I'm guessing they will train someone to be an emergency holder, just in case. But that guy isn't likely to get many reps in practice 

[dhg]

Fantastic write up! Thank you

[MasterStrategist]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Not gonna do another draft grade here, don't really see the point of grading picks.  No one here or in the media has any insight on how the Bills graded and ranked players or why.  But just some thoughts on the draft picks, our roster now, and Beane:

• Draft
  • Kaiir Elam - LOVE this pick!  Its no secret I was adamant that the biggest need was without question a CB heading into the draft.  While I was not insistent on it needing to be addressed in the first, I felt strongly it would be and it was the best place to do it.  I thought Booth might be higher on their board based on style of play, but I always loved Elam as well, so was stoked he was the guy.  He brings versatility to our defense in how we can play, speed, size and aggressiveness.  The negatives on him are all coachable as well.  
    • But what I really love about this kid is everything that came out after he was picked.  Showing up with his notebook, showing humility and hunger to be better, asking them what Tre does to be so great and what he can be better at, asking the same from Tre himself, asking for the playbook on the flight in, etc.  Everything about this kid tells me that he is setup to reach his potential here, and this kid entered the draft already with a high ceiling.  My gut feeling is this kid is going to be good to very good in the NFL as I have full confidence in our staff's ability to coach him up.  
  • James Cook - LOVE this pick!  This is the guy I wanted from the get go.  I would have been excited for a Hall or Walker as well, but I am in the camp that has a lot of confidence in Devin and posted many times about his production last year when given 13 or more carries (7 games) and how it projected out to 1400 yards and 17 TDs over a full season.  Devin has his limitations though as good as he can be, and those are he is not a great receiver out of the back field and while he is quick and shifty he isn't a home run threat.  Enter Cook who is excellent in those very things.  I think this is going to be a very potent 1-2 punch which I prefer over a bell cow back anyway helping keeping each other fresh thought games and the season.  
    • Note:  Devin was so good last year when given carries yet was still playing behind a bad OL most the year.  I think adding Saffold and bringing Bates back, plus another year of experience now for Brown and adding Kromer will make this unit a better run blocking unit.  Not to mention the exit of Daboll and his allergy to running at times.  
  • Terrell Bernard - Not gonna pretend I knew much about him until the Bills picked him.  But I have spent time now watching his highlights and reading in depth about him, and I can say there is a lot to like here.  After seeing what our staff did to develop Milano, I am excited to see how they use and develop Bernard.  
  • Khalil Shakir - LOVE this pick!  He was someone I thought could be a target for the Bills if they didn't take a WR in rounds 1 or 2.  I actually liked him as much or more than just about anyone that would have been available in round 2.  Not gonna pretend I make my own rankings list which would be silly, I just find prospects I think would fit us and could be available when we pick.  
    • And Shakir is one of my favorite players in this draft.  Player comparisons get way over used, but its hard not to watch him play and not think of Kupp the way he runs routes, uses his body and his hands.  And with the ball in his hands he has those AJ Brown and Deebo Samuel type moves and toughness too.  I have no idea why this kid wasn't graded to go earlier to be honest and mind blown he lasted to the 5th.  Best value pick of the draft IMHO.  
    • As much as I love this pick, it will be tough for him to get a lot of targets this year without some injuries just given the guys we have at WR already in Diggs, Davis, and Crowder.  Not to mention, Knox and Howard at TE, and now Cook at RB who should all get their share of targets too.  But I can't wait to see what he does with those opportunities and I think he has a bright future ahead of him long term.
  • Matt Araiza - LOVE this pick!  I would have also loved Stout or really any punter not named Matt Haack who I felt was the worst player on our team last year.  Great, he is excellent at holding, but who cares, someone else can be trained to hold for Bass.  Araiza has some things to work on, but what I love most about him is his competitive streak and toughness.  This kid wants it and wants it bad, and that for me gives me confidence he will make the adjustments he needs to be consistent in the NFL.  Everything I read and have seen from him makes me think he can be a Pro Bowl punter at this level.  
  • Benford, Tenuta, Spector - I really liked the Benford pick, I felt he could be a good fit here coming into the draft when I was looking at CB's we could get in the middle or later rounds for depth.  If anyone read my posts leading up to the draft, I thought there was a good chance we would take 2 corners as we needed the depth.  The other 2 I don't know a ton about, but my guess is they will have a good chance to compete for depth as the depth at those positions is not great right now.  Spector probably is going to need to show some ST skills to have any shot of making this roster. 

 

• State of the Bills - Post Draft
  • I feel like I have said this the past few seasons, but this is the most excited I have ever been for a season to start.  Last year, I was excited but I wasn't sure we were ready yet to get to the SB.  I knew we could, but ending the season in KC in 2020 we just didn't look like a team ready to be on their level.  So entering last year, I was excited and optimistic, but still unsure if we were SB bound.  This year is different...I know this team that ended on the field again in KC last year could have, and probably should have, won last years SB.  
  • Now I look at this team after the dust has settled from FA and the Draft, and its clear we are an even better team and roster today than even we were end of this past season.  
    • Defense/ST:
      • Interior DL is substantially upgraded, and I don't use the word "substantially" loosely.  People are going to be surprised I think to how good the Settle and Jones signings were, not to mention Jordan.  I have full confidence that we will be both better at penetration from the middle and at stopping the run.  
      • Pass Rush looks to be better given we were able to get pressure (5th in the NFL) but not always close (10th in sacks).  Now we have a closer in Miller and we get to see what Greg can do in his second year after a promising first year (which was also his first year back to football since 2019).  
      • CB Just getting Tre back is boost on its own, but now adding Elam to compete with Dane will only make our secondary stronger.  
      • Not having Haack likely punt this year is a blessing.
    • Offense:
      • Run game is going to IMO be much better just with Daboll gone and having Kromer here.  But we also added Saffold and brought back Bates, who really helped boost the line last year when he became a starter.  Plus adding Cook as a complimentary RB is going to be a great fit to this offense.  Everything guys like Devin and Moss aren't great at, Cook excels.  
      • Receivers are better this year too.  Davis has arrived IMO, and he is in line for a good season this year.  People are sleeping on Crowder, this guy is going to be dangerous catching passes from Josh and I love adding Shakir into the mix.  McKenzie is back, but honestly, I think McKenzie doesn't see a big change in his role without injuries, still an excellent weapon to have on the team when needed and great depth.  
      • Tight Ends got a boost too with the addition of Howard coming in to pair along side Knox in 2 TE sets.  
      • Josh Allen has also been working this offseason to improve his ball placement to maximize YAC. Every year he picks an area of focus to keep improving.  I really think its his time now and has a real shot at MVP, SB Champion and SB MVP all this year.  But I know Josh ONLY cares about one of those things...hoisting the Lombardi.  

 

• Brandon Beane - Just gonna say what I have been saying for a while now...he is one of the best, if not the the best, GM in the NFL.  I personally think he is the best GM in football and wouldn't swap him for anyone.  He is already getting that kind of praise around the league now too and it will get cemented when we take home a SB Title.  
  • Surprisingly some people still don't get this:  Beane is always a straight shooter...why some people try and speculate differently when he speaks is puzzling to me.  Listen to the man and its not hard to figure out what he is thinking.  
  • Love his accountability too like when he openly admitted to getting the Teller decision wrong and wished he gave him more time.  A mistake he said he wont make again...which is probably some insight to why Ford is still here despite a lot of people thinking they would trade or cut him by now.  I bet he wants to see what Kromer thinks of him and do with working with him.

 

CONCLUSION:  This team is much improved and I think, in as an unbiased way possible, that we have the best roster today in the NFL.  Now, the games still need to be played, and we still have question marks heading into the season with a new OC, some new starters in key places, etc.  But overall, Beane crushed FA adding a closer in Miller and shoring up our trenches on both sides of the ball.  Then IMHO, he crushed the draft shoring up our 2 weakest positions (CB and P) while adding some exciting playmakers that should fit nicely into this offense as well.  

 

It really feels like something special is brewing and this is our time.  

 

GO BILLS!

Fantastic analysis and write-up!

 

I'm really interested how they use all their WRs this season.  Thought they did a great job adding complimentary pieces, that will allow them to be extremely versatile with sub-packages.

 

I'm not ruling out Speedy having a great camp.  He impressed until he was injured last year, and was a standout playmaker at Houston.

 

Battle for the 6th WR spot, and seeing if they keep a 7th WR again, will be fun to watch. 

[Alphadawg7]

47 minutes ago, The Dean said:

 

 

Agree for the most part.  Even if Araiza is a great holder,  I'm guessing they will train someone to be an emergency holder, just in case. But that guy isn't likely to get many reps in practice 

Maybe Barkley as our third QB is who I am thinking 

[Shaw66]

Alpha -be

 

Great job.  Thanks.  I have a few quibbles, like I'll believe Araiza is the answer when I see him, but whatever.

 

I was interested in how you're almost apologetic when you say how good the Bills should be, because I've been feeling the same way.  I've written some things here the last few days where I wondered how loud and how fast the "homer!" cries were going to come back.  I find it particularly interesting that McDermott told us when he got here that this was what the Bills were going to do.  After McDermott's first season, the Bills struggled as the roster was reset.  Since then, the Bills have gotten significantly better, year over year.  They do it with personnel changes AND with improved play from guys on the team.  

 

The offense has gotten significant boosts, the defense has gotten significant boosts, and the moves make sense both for the short term and the long term.  

 

Like you, the more I come to understand who these drafted rookies are, the more I think Beane is a young master at his craft.  Imagine what he's going to do as he gains experience!   Pegulas have to write checks for Beane and McDermott that are as big as Beane and McDermott want.

 

The Bills could become the best team in the league, and possibly by a wide margin.   

[The Dean]

20 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Maybe Barkley as our third QB is who I am thinking 

 

Make a lot of sense except for the fact he will likely be inactive for gameday. So won't be avaliable in an emergency 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

3 hours ago, The Dean said:

 

 

Agree for the most part.  Even if Araiza is a great holder,  I'm guessing they will train someone to be an emergency holder, just in case. But that guy isn't likely to get many reps in practice 

 

Yeah I'm sure there's both an emergency holder and an  emergency long snapper on the Bills and every other team.  The one good thing about Araiza is he may be one of the top emergency kickers in the league as he's actually done it a fair amount.   Was reading he actually started his college career as a place kicker, then moved to punting.

[The Dean]

4 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Yeah I'm sure there's both an emergency holder and an  emergency long snapper on the Bills and every other team.  The one good thing about Araiza is he may be one of the top emergency kickers in the league as he's actually done it a fair amount.   Was reading he actually started his college career as a place kicker, then moved to punting.

 

Seems like he was a very good PK, too.

[Buffalophil1948]

They would have to practice holding for a lefty kicker. Adds a little challenge 

[Big Turk]

4 hours ago, The Dean said:

 

Seems like he was a very good PK, too.

 

Yeah but like the Atlanta punter/kicker you can't be good enough at both to do them effectively at the NFL level...

 

He had to stick to punter, and Araiza will also.

[Chandler#81]

5 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Yeah I'm sure there's both an emergency holder and an  emergency long snapper on the Bills and every other team.  The one good thing about Araiza is he may be one of the top emergency kickers in the league as he's actually done it a fair amount.   Was reading he actually started his college career as a place kicker, then moved to punting.

Don’t be too sure. We had an opponent last year whose PK got injured in pregame and they were trying everybody out. In the end, they didn’t even bother trying a PK. Hell, I think they even called A-Dawg down from the stands with cash in hand if he could make a kick😉

 

You're my dawg, A-Dawg! Excellent post!

Edited May 4, 2022 by Chandler#81

[GunnerBill]

9 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I think Shakir is gonna surprise you once you see him on the field.  He is versatile and could help more than some think if there is an injury.

 

 

Honestly, I don't think he will be that versatile in the NFL. I like Shakir a lot I had a 3rd round grade on him and I think by the end of the season he will be the Bills starting slot receiver. If you get 3 seasons of productive starting slot receiver play from a 5th round pick that is excellent asset management. But outside he isn't going to be more than just someone who can spell the other guys. Lacks functional strenght against bigger corners and has a tendency to round of downfield routes rather than finishing them. The second can be improved the first is a limitation he has to work with. 

 

I know be played outside half of the time at Boise. This is going to be a completely different game in the NFL. For me he is slot only at the next level. 

[Billy Claude]

11 hours ago, eball said:

 

First of all, thanks for the great post, but this paragraph should be required reading for everyone wanting to kick Cody Ford to the curb.  I agree that Beane being willing to own up to the Teller mistake says a lot about his integrity, honesty, and lack of ego.

 

I laugh inwardly every time I read a post about how Beane will keep draft picks who shouldn’t be on the team only because he doesn’t want to admit he was wrong.

 

 

I have to disagree.  I don't feel that the Wyatt Teller situation has any relevance to the Cody Ford situation.

 

First, there's a huge difference in the hit to Beane's ego in having a 2nd rounder you traded up for bust versus a 5th rounder.  No one is going to say much about a 5th round bust.

 

Second, Wyatt Teller was not a bust in Buffalo.  He was a 5th round pick who started 7 games as a rookie, albeit due to injuries.  Furthermore, he was looking more and more competent as the season when on. It was a very successful pick by any measure.   Cody Ford, on the other hand, has shown nothing in three years.

 

Third, Beane was widely praise for getting more draft capital back from the Teller trade than he used to pick him, so the trade was a boost to Beane's ego not a hit.

 

The mistake that Beane made was that assuming the mostly JAG oline guys that he signed, Winters, Feliciano, and Spain, were better than Teller.  By the end of that season Teller was better than all three of them (I know Winters was signed mostly as backup center, but I believe he also played some guard).

 

Finally, what was Beane supposed to say about the Teller trade?  That it was a good decision?  That would sound moronic.  His answer sounds like a trite response to the standard interview question: Name one mistake you made and what you learned from it.  If what he learned was that you need to keep Cody Ford around no matter what, just in case he develops, then Beane probably learned the wrong thing.  I am not arguing that they need to cut Ford now, but if he doesn't show anything in training camp/preseason they should definitely be very actively looking.

 

Beane is the best Bills' GM since Bill Polian.  However, he is not GM god, at least not yet.

 

 

 

Edited May 4, 2022 by Billy Claude

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

4 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

Don’t be too sure. We had an opponent last year whose PK got injured in pregame and they were trying everybody out. In the end, they didn’t even bother trying a PK. Hell, I think they even called A-Dawg down from the stands with cash in hand if he could make a kick😉

 

You're my dawg, A-Dawg! Excellent post!

 

Yeah forgot about that game LOL.  Seems like from time to time you hear something about so and so being the emergency  guy though, but maybe not as much as in years past??

[eball]

3 hours ago, Billy Claude said:

I am not arguing that they need to cut Ford now, but if he doesn't show anything in training camp/preseason they should definitely be very actively looking.

 

Beane is the best Bills' GM since Bill Polian.  However, he is not GM god, at least not yet.

 

And I have repeatedly said the same.  It’s Cody’s last chance.  But if you don’t think the Teller situation is a factor in Beane wanting to give Cody a chance I think you’re naive.  Beane hasn’t given Cody a 2nd contract; he hasn’t insisted he get playing time.  Those are coaching decisions.  Ford has also been hurt a lot.  The odds are far greater that we’ve seen the last of Cody on a Bills’ regular season roster than otherwise.

 

I also strongly disagree with your premise that Beane gave an “easy answer” on the Teller situation.  He did the opposite — he went in depth on his thinking about what was happening at the time.  He could have continued to say he made the right decision at the time but he didn’t — he said he wished he had been more patient.  Beane has admitted other mistakes as well, such as botching the QB situation in Josh’s rookie year.

 

BBB is a guy who checks all the boxes in terms of integrity, honesty, and accountability.  He doesn’t pat himself on the back for his good decisions (he shares credit) and he accepts responsibility for his bad ones.

 

And I’m sorry, looking at what the Bills were when he got here to what they are now, and understanding that being a GM is infinitely more complex than it was when Polian was around, I think he may already be the best GM we’ve ever had.

 

[GunnerBill]

18 minutes ago, eball said:

 

And I have repeatedly said the same.  It’s Cody’s last chance.  But if you don’t think the Teller situation is a factor in Beane wanting to give Cody a chance I think you’re naive.  Beane hasn’t given Cody a 2nd contract; he hasn’t insisted he get playing time.  Those are coaching decisions.  Ford has also been hurt a lot.  The odds are far greater that we’ve seen the last of Cody on a Bills’ regular season roster than otherwise.

 

I also strongly disagree with your premise that Beane gave an “easy answer” on the Teller situation.  He did the opposite — he went in depth on his thinking about what was happening at the time.  He could have continued to say he made the right decision at the time but he didn’t — he said he wished he had been more patient.  Beane has admitted other mistakes as well, such as botching the QB situation in Josh’s rookie year.

 

BBB is a guy who checks all the boxes in terms of integrity, honesty, and accountability.  He doesn’t pat himself on the back for his good decisions (he shares credit) and he accepts responsibility for his bad ones.

 

And I’m sorry, looking at what the Bills were when he got here to what they are now, and understanding that being a GM is infinitely more complex than it was when Polian was around, I think he may already be the best GM we’ve ever had.

 

 

He actually said himself he did a "horrible job" with the entire offense in 2018. And then said after the playoff defeat to Houston after the 2019 season that he "still hadn't given Josh enough touchdown makers". 

 

I think Brandon Beane is pretty straight up and pretty honest when he screws up. While he didn't quite say it in the same way after last season he said "protecting Josh is the first priority" which was a tacit admission that the Oline mess for most of 2021 was on him first and foremost. 

[BillsFanThru-N-Thru]

Great post Alpha as usual! 👍