My draft recap and random thoughts.

[Sierra Foothills]

On 5/1/2022 at 9:44 AM, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

It was a nod to the fans.  very popular predraft character.

 

The fun thing about the punters taken in this draft is that the Ravens took the first punter Jordan Stout with pick 130 which the Bills gave them to move up for Elam. Then the Bills took the third punter Matt Araiza with pick 180 which they received for trading down for James Cook. Henceforth we'll always compare the  careers of those two along with Jake Carmada who Tampa Bay took at pick 133.

 

Which of the three will have the best career?

[NewEra]

45 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yep........want.

 

When you put feels on the top of the chart it's always got the potential to look bad.

 

I find it funny that Beane is actively selling the idea that they aren't just going "all-in" on this season when this draft couldn't say that any more than it did.

 

And people need to remember........these dudes had a team like those 2021 Bills when they were in Carolina.........they went 14-2 and had the league MVP at QB........and BLEW IT in the SB against a team with a washed up QB who had thrown 9 TD's and 17 INT's on the season.

 

And that was it.    They fell back to earth the next season and the franchise quickly fell back into the pack.

 

Their experience has to be colored by that.   

There’s no reason for him to say he’s going all in.  
 

He knows how close this team was last year and he’s being proactive and continuing to improve the team the best he can.  I’d say he’s doing a great job.  If it weren’t for an all time coaching debacle, we may have had ourselves a Lombardi.  It’s all on McD and co now. 

[Richard Noggin]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

You get that feeling because that's how you want to feel about it.

 

First, remember, you are new here.......I am not.   This isn't an extension of BBMB it's a different forum.

 

Second, you don't want to consider that the Bills didn't make decisions that were in the best interest of the organization long term.    That thought bothers you.

 

This draft was used to patch perceived holes at positions they think are easy enough to do that right away.   Beane knows that being honest about that would be stupid because nobody thinks that's how you handle a draft.  But the heart wants what it wants.

  

And on the subject of feels........nobody on here may fully understand how much immediate pressure McBeane feel after blowing a season where they should have had home field clinched on or before week 17 and instead ended up imploding in epic fashion in the final seconds in the same exact place where they got flogged the year before.   They don't have 30 years to get this done like a fan their age.  They lived thru being 14-2 and favored to win the SB over Denver........and losing........and then never getting close again.

 

So it has to be maddening and possibly a cause for anxiety to them to blow that and then watch the rest of the AFC loading up for battle in 2022.

 

Maybe the strategy works.  

 

But I have been here since the 90's.........my standards for what I want to see the Bills do in the draft are always the same..........I've repeated the philosophies hundreds of times at this point.

 

A lot of the things I have been saying for 15+ years were scoffed at initially and now the league does them and it's openly discussed.   Focus on premium positions in round 1.   Don't draft RB's in round 1.  Even "it's only wrong to take the best QB in round 1 if you are afraid to take another the next year if he's better".........see Kyler Murray a year after Josh Rosen.    

 

If you choose not to know or remember these things...........that's fine, they are just my opinion.........but it looks ridiculous when you try to make it out like my opinions of how the draft should be executed are a moving target when I've been re-iterating them for a long time...........and you've even weighed in on posts where I've expressed some of them.    You have a very selective memory though.........as you illustrated last week when you implied that I criticized Beane for drafting Ed Oliver when I did quite the opposite.

 

As I've said.........I really didn't like the kind of draft they just executed..........but I'm not grinding my teeth about it.    It's all entertainment.   Winning is always fun.   Bad decisions, bonehead plays and even losing can also be entertaining if you have the pastime in perspective.

 

 

 

The bolded passage actually argues IN FAVOR of the Cardinals' draft behavior: they drafted Josh Rosen as the 4th (1st round) QB in 2018, and then took another the next year (#1 overall). They were definitely not afraid to spend 1st round picks on QB consecutive years. 

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

The bolded passage actually argues IN FAVOR of the Cardinals' draft behavior: they drafted Josh Rosen as the 4th (1st round) QB in 2018, and then took another the next year (#1 overall). They were definitely not afraid to spend 1st round picks on QB consecutive years. 

 

That is Badol's point. He had made that argument for years. I remember him making it when I was new around here after the 2013 season going into the 2014 draft. I think it was Carr and Bridgewater we were talking about it and Badol was saying if the Bills think either of those guys is better than EJ they should pick them. 

 

 

On the draft this year I probably have a slightly more favourable view of the 1st round pick. The way I see Kaiir Elam is if he is the player the Bills think he can be then it IS re-stocking the cupboard at a premium position. Now I was a bit lower on Elam than Beane but I see the thinking - Elam is a ceiling guy. If they'd drafted McDuffie or McCreary (both of whom I had graded slightly ahead of Elam based on their tape and who they are now) those are lower ceiling guys who I don't ever see as being true #1 boundary corners. Tre White is going into year 6, age 27, and he is coming off an ACL. He is signed through 4 more seasons. That means at the end of that contract he will be 31. I doubt you want to commit top corner money to a 31 year old at that point. Maybe you move on or maybe you extend his career paying him less and moving him to safety. Who knows? But what we do know is that at exactly the point the Bills make that decision Kaiir Elam will be coming off his 4 cheap rookie contract years. That is why corner made sense to me in the 1st this year in a way it hasn't particularly any other year since we drafted Tre. Because if Kaiir works out then just as Tre stops being your well paid #1 corner, Kaiir is in exactly the position to get his and pick up the mantle. Now don't get me wrong where I think Badol and I would agree is that if one of the top 4 tackles had got to the Bills or one of the top 5 receivers it is a different question. I'd have gone offense too. But with the runs on those positions in the previous 10 picks I tnought premium position on defense made sense. Given what I have said above about the need to be continually re-stocking those spots. 

 

The rest of the draft was a bit of a meh from me. I gave it a C+. It wasn't the players I hated. I like Cook and I like Shakir and I think Spector as a 7th round special teams ace is a good pick. I don't really know much about the others. It was the strategy behind it that I was a bit more questioning and that does go back to positional value and impact. I really want to grade Elam a B+ and the rest of the draft a C+. 

[Mr. WEO]

5 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

The fun thing about the punters taken in this draft is that the Ravens took the first punter Jordan Stout with pick 130 which the Bills gave them to move up for Elam. Then the Bills took the third punter Matt Araiza with pick 180 which they received for trading down for James Cook. Henceforth we'll always compare the  careers of those two along with Jake Carmada who Tampa Bay took at pick 133.

 

Which of the three will have the best career?

 

 i would prefer the punter who has the fewest attempts/stats.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

They blew it because their pedestrian offensive line and wide outs were dominated in the SB by that Broncos defense… 

 

It's true. While their interior OLine that year was decent with Norwell, Khalil and Turner their tackles were rookie Daryl Williams, Michael Oher who had flamed out in Baltimore and Mike Remmers who has the distinction of being the liability that cost his team two Superbowls (repeating the trick with KC in their loss to Tampa). Their starting wideouts were Ted Ginn Jnr as their #1 and rookie Devin Funchess at their #2. 

 

I should say the Bills are already a lot better at OT and WR than that Panthers team, and better built as an entire roster. But in that run of years after they drafted Cam #1 to the year right after they lost that Superbowl they spent 7 round 1&2 picks on defensive players and only 3 on offensive players (Kelvin Benjamin - bust, Amini Silatolu - bust, and Devin Funchess - JAG). Beane and McDermott were the assistants rather than the decision makers and they have talked a lot about learning the lessons of the Carolina experience, but one should definitely be saying "we have a big, strong, mobile franchise QB... we can go cheap on the perimeter and on the oline" is not a viable strategy. The Bills since they drafted Josh are 5 defensive players and 2 offensive players in the first two rounds (though they did swing that trade for Diggs as well so 5 and 3 if you include that).

[RocCityRoller]

I like a bunch of guys the Bills drafted and can understand why they took the guys they did. I can't help but think that there was better BPA/ value at the picks.

 

From the picks/ moves/ presser CB was an open sore spot on the team and they were dead set on drafting a CB in the first, and they had a short list of who they would take. Beane said that 'he (or the Bills) will sleep better at night'. Says all that needs to be said.

 

After that the draft fell weird. I like some of the guys picked after, but I could see this being a 1 starter and 1 role player type of draft.

 

Once again IOL was ignored despite good options being there in the 3rd (Parham) and even 6th round (Mays/ Salyer). Whoever is scouting IOL needs to do better or have some bigger balls at decision time. Buffalo can't keep ignoring those positions. We still have smurfs at RB.

 

All of that said I hope Elam is the CB he should be. Cook could be an Austin Ekeler type player. Bernard's size and profile is very Milano/ Matakevich like and his instincts are off the charts good, Shakir could be a Davis type steal where they selected him, Araiza should be a lot of fun to watch and talk about, and Benford was selected higher than Dane Jackson or Levi Wallace and those guys have played a lot of meaningful snaps for this staff in Buffalo. Tenuta and Spector are probably long shots, maybe PS guys.

Edited May 3, 2022 by RocCityRoller

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, RocCityRoller said:

Tenuta and Spector are probably long shots, maybe PS guys.

 

Spector has a chance because he is going to be a demon on special teams. Those backup linebacker spots are always about special teams first and foremost. 

[eball]

On 5/1/2022 at 1:16 PM, Virgil said:

The Edmunds plan remains and enigma to me.

 

Unless I’m completely misreading the tea leaves, the plan is obvious.  Edmunds is going to be a Bill for a long time.

 

Great recap, @NewEra

[MrEpsYtown]

34 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It's true. While their interior OLine that year was decent with Norwell, Khalil and Turner their tackles were rookie Daryl Williams, Michael Oher who had flamed out in Baltimore and Mike Remmers who has the distinction of being the liability that cost his team two Superbowls (repeating the trick with KC in their loss to Tampa). Their starting wideouts were Ted Ginn Jnr as their #1 and rookie Devin Funchess at their #2. 

 

I should say the Bills are already a lot better at OT and WR than that Panthers team, and better built as an entire roster. But in that run of years after they drafted Cam #1 to the year right after they lost that Superbowl they spent 7 round 1&2 picks on defensive players and only 3 on offensive players (Kelvin Benjamin - bust, Amini Silatolu - bust, and Devin Funchess - JAG). Beane and McDermott were the assistants rather than the decision makers and they have talked a lot about learning the lessons of the Carolina experience, but one should definitely be saying "we have a big, strong, mobile franchise QB... we can go cheap on the perimeter and on the oline" is not a viable strategy. The Bills since they drafted Josh are 5 defensive players and 2 offensive players in the first two rounds (though they did swing that trade for Diggs as well so 5 and 3 if you include that).

 

I feel like part of that is the drafting BPA for need strategy as they shore up the defense. I think the other part about that is when their time has come on the clock, a lot of the defensive players on the board were just better than the offense imo. 

 

2022 - Elam was the right pick over guys like Hall and Watson. 2nd round Cook works. 

 

2021 - The argument can be made that they should have taken Elijah Moore or Javonte Williams. I think they made the right choice in Rousseau. Rd 2, I like Basham more than most, but they should have taken Creed Humphrey. 

 

2020 - Diggs trade rd 1 (If they didn't make that trade I assume they draft Jefferson), Rd 2 in a redraft I am taking Antonio Gibson there. I also really like Jeremy Chinn. Obviously AJ was the wrong pick, but the offensive players around there were very meh aside from a few. Ezra Cleveland is pretty good as well and fits the profile of linemen they are now looking for. To me JK Dobbins is meh. 

 

2019 - Ed Oliver was the right choice. And if we did a re-draft I would consider Brian Burns. The best offensive player selected after our pick was Chris Lindstrom and then a bunch of linemen who had their 5th year option rejected. Obviously the Cody Ford debacle in the 2nd is a problem and that is probably their biggest mistake. However, they were trying to shore up  gaping hole at RT.  

 

2018 - Josh Draft, an argument can be made for DJ Moore over Tremaine.  

 

Edited May 3, 2022 by MrEpsYtown
there is an L in clock

[Dr. Who]

7 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yep........want.

 

When you put feels on the top of the chart it's always got the potential to look bad.

 

I find it funny that Beane is actively selling the idea that they aren't just going "all-in" on this season when this draft couldn't say that any more than it did.

 

And people need to remember........these dudes had a team like those 2021 Bills when they were in Carolina.........they went 14-2 and had the league MVP at QB........and BLEW IT in the SB against a team with a washed up QB who had thrown 9 TD's and 17 INT's on the season.

 

And that was it.    They fell back to earth the next season and the franchise quickly fell back into the pack.

 

Their experience has to be colored by that.   

If this draft is the model for drafting going forward, you are right. As an effort to win a SB, it makes perfect sense to me and I am generally on board with it. I basically agree with New Era. Myself, I was arguing to package 25 and next year's first to go get Jameson Williams because I think he is going to be a special player who would make our offense very hard to stop. But that is a risky strategy, too. On the whole, I won't complain about this one. Don't make chasing the perfect strategy the enemy of the good . . . and prudence is choosing what is wise in the moment. I'm not convinced your strategy is right for this moment.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, eball said:

 

Unless I’m completely misreading the tea leaves, the plan is obvious.  Edmunds is going to be a Bill for a long time.

 

Great recap, @NewEra

 

I still feel like their preferred plan is for him to play on the option, ball out and earn the extension. But I do wonder with the need for money to just meet the cap with the 53 that Beane referred to yesterday whether the easiest way to create space isn't to extend Edmunds, lowering that hit. I think the Bills will only do that if they can make the extension team friendly in terms of outs. I think they still like Tremaine but they would rather not be totally tied in for the long term. If he is willing to do a flexible deal where he doesn't get huge guaranteed money beyond the first two years and then the future years guarantee almost one at a time after that I think there is a deal to be done. 

[MrEpsYtown]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Spector has a chance because he is going to be a demon on special teams. Those backup linebacker spots are always about special teams first and foremost. 

 

He reminds me of AJ Klein honestly. Spector is a bit smaller and more athletic and explosive. Spector should be able to gain 10 lbs in an NFL strength program and his instincts will play. I really like him.  

 

 

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

I feel like part of that is the drafting BPA for need strategy as they shore up the defense. I think the other part about that is when their time has come on the ####, a lot of the defensive players on the board were just better than the offense imo. 

 

2022 - Elam was the right pick over guys like Hall and Watson. 2nd round Cook works. 

 

2021 - The argument can be made that they should have taken Elijah Moore or Javonte Williams. I think they made the right choice in Rousseau. Rd 2, I like Basham more than most, but they should have taken Creed Humphrey. 

 

2020 - Diggs trade rd 1 (If they didn't make that trade I assume they draft Jefferson), Rd 2 in a redraft I am taking Antonio Gibson there. I also really like Jeremy Chinn. Obviously AJ was the wrong pick, but the offensive players around there were very meh aside from a few. Ezra Cleveland is pretty good as well and fits the profile of linemen they are now looking for. To me JK Dobbins is meh. 

 

2019 - Ed Oliver was the right choice. And if we did a re-draft I would consider Brian Burns. The best offensive player selected after our pick was Chris Lindstrom and then a bunch of linemen who had their 5th year option rejected. Obviously the Cody Ford debacle in the 2nd is a problem and that is probably their biggest mistake. However, they were trying to shore up  gaping hole at RT.  

 

2018 - Josh Draft, an argument can be made for DJ Moore over Tremaine.  

 

 

I do get that. And I think that happens when you draft late in rounds..... especially in years where the Quarterbacks don't go. Before we went on the clock on Thursday night the top 4 tackles, top 2 guards and top 6 receivers were all off the board. Corner was the right pick at that point and so long as they took whichever of the ceiling guys they were higher on (I was higher on Booth but obviously injury flags and Gordon, but they were higher on Elam) then I am on board. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

9 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

You get that feeling because that's how you want to feel about it.

 

First, remember, you are new here.......I am not.   This isn't an extension of BBMB it's a different forum.

 

Second, you don't want to consider that the Bills didn't make decisions that were in the best interest of the organization long term.    That thought bothers you.

 

This draft was used to patch perceived holes at positions they think are easy enough to do that right away.   Beane knows that being honest about that would be stupid because nobody thinks that's how you handle a draft.  But the heart wants what it wants.

  

(...)

 

A lot of the things I have been saying for 15+ years were scoffed at initially and now the league does them and it's openly discussed.   Focus on premium positions in round 1.   Don't draft RB's in round 1.  Even "it's only wrong to take the best QB in round 1 if you are afraid to take another the next year if he's better".........see Kyler Murray a year after Josh Rosen.   

 

I don't wanna get between you guys and your feelings. 

 

But elsewhere, you explained your draft philosophy that the first round is for drafting guys who will earn a $20M second contract if they succeed in the NFL. 

 

A quick glance at Spotrac's contract page shows that those positions are QB, LT, OLB/DE (pass rushers), WR, and yes, sometimes CB.

 

Who, in keeping with your draft philosophy of "only draft $20M second contract guys in the first round", was available that you think the Bills should have picked in the 1st round at Pick #25 (or 23, for that matter)? 

 

What, according to your philosophy, should the Bills have done?

 

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

If this draft is the model for drafting going forward, you are right. As an effort to win a SB, it makes perfect sense to me and I am generally on board with it. I basically agree with New Era. Myself, I was arguing to package 25 and next year's first to go get Jameson Williams because I think he is going to be a special player who would make our offense very hard to stop. But that is a risky strategy, too. On the whole, I won't complain about this one. Don't make chasing the perfect strategy the enemy of the good . . . and prudence is choosing what is wise in the moment. I'm not convinced your strategy is right for this moment.

 

Yeah I think a lot of us wanted them to go big..........the motto coming into this draft was that they didn't have many needs...........so it came down to whether they addressed the low hanging fruit like KC did a couple years ago when they took CEH........or if they went for the longer range, find a star at a premium position kinda' route.  

 

As it turned out, the trade-up for Williams option would have been much cheaper than imagined......but Beane didn't talk to any teams prior to pick #20.......they were laser focused on what they eventually did........drafting for immediate need, regardless of value.

 

Those closing quotes in your post may have their place........but aren't necessarily applicable to a sport that punishes the undisciplined and inconsistent, IMO.

 

Long before McDermott arrived I said it here..........the draft is a process of organization building...........not an annual event to fill needs.

 

Beyond not setting yourself up for longer term success in a situation where you are going to be cap-tight for the foreseeable future..........the OTHER fallacy is just assuming that drafting for need at easier to fill positions will yield better results than taking players at more valued positions.

 

You don't even know if that will be the case in their rookie year..........we saw it in 2016 with the 3 "off the bus starters" draft........ Shaq, Ragnuts and Adolphus.

 

I heard the same arguments then when I described that draft as "uninspired".

 

We all know what happened.......NO starters.

 

But how soon we forget.

 

That's the thing with the draft.........you really can't count on a lot from year one anyway.  

 

It's a trap to assume that you can.   

 

Last year they went with an extremely raw, but big traits Pass Rusher, an over-aged Pass Rusher, then a raw LT traits OT.   On paper that shouldn't have yielded much of an early return.  

 

 Instead, they got two rookie starters who played key roles for them and one can envision them both being Bills for a decade.

 

Maybe Elam and Cook and Bernard all play key roles..........but history also shows that they very well could not.

 

Look at that 2016 draft........Shaq ended up not playing half the season but Lorenzo Alexander more than filled any expectations for him..............Ragnuts missed the whole year but Zach Brown lead the NFL in tackles.   I guess they should have won the Super Bowl.  

 

As it turned out the NEEDS that season were elsewhere.  

 

Needs are a always a moving target in the NFL.

Edited May 3, 2022 by BADOLBILZ

[BADOLBILZ]

56 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I don't wanna get between you guys and your feelings. 

 

But elsewhere, you explained your draft philosophy that the first round is for drafting guys who will earn a $20M second contract if they succeed in the NFL. 

 

A quick glance at Spotrac's contract page shows that those positions are QB, LT, OLB/DE (pass rushers), WR, and yes, sometimes CB.

 

Who, in keeping with your draft philosophy of "only draft $20M second contract guys in the first round", was available that you think the Bills should have picked in the 1st round at Pick #25 (or 23, for that matter)? 

 

What, according to your philosophy, should the Bills have done?

 

 

Didn't you ask me this question before and I gave you a very detailed, 1,000 word kinda' response so there was no confusion?

 

Correct me if I'm wrong but these are the questions you always ask me and I wouldn't indulge just anyone..........so I think it was you.

 

But while we are at it..........what would YOU have done? 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Didn't you ask me this question before and I gave you a very detailed, 1,000 word kinda' response so there was no confusion?

 

Correct me if I'm wrong but these are the questions you always ask me and I wouldn't indulge just anyone..........so I think it was you.

 

But while we are at it..........what would YOU have done? 

 

 

I apologize most sincerely if I missed a careful and thoughtfull 1,000 word kind of response.  I admit the search engine here isn't "all that", but I did bring up your posting history and look carefully for a response to where I previously asked this question before I asked it again.  Then I searched.

 

Clearly I missed your response, which is "me bad", but I did make a good faith effort, so might you be so kind as to link me to this response? (Doesn't matter if it was to me or someone else, though the latter might have kept me from finding it)

 

As far as what I would have done, I don't have a problem with the Bills drafting Kaiir Elam in the first, or even moving up 2 spots to do so.  I think CB is a premium position worthy of a late-first-round pick, and I think it's entirely possible that while Elam filled a need, he was also legitimately someone who the Bills saw as BPA at that position.

[RocCityRoller]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Spector has a chance because he is going to be a demon on special teams. Those backup linebacker spots are always about special teams first and foremost. 

 

Oh I agree. I just don't know if Dodson or Matakevich is cut for Spector. I could see one cut for Bernard.

[BarleyNY]

12 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I still feel like their preferred plan is for him to play on the option, ball out and earn the extension. But I do wonder with the need for money to just meet the cap with the 53 that Beane referred to yesterday whether the easiest way to create space isn't to extend Edmunds, lowering that hit. I think the Bills will only do that if they can make the extension team friendly in terms of outs. I think they still like Tremaine but they would rather not be totally tied in for the long term. If he is willing to do a flexible deal where he doesn't get huge guaranteed money beyond the first two years and then the future years guarantee almost one at a time after that I think there is a deal to be done. 

The easiest way to create cap space is to restructure Tre and/or Dion.  That would easily give the Bills enough space to get through the season.