Projecting coaches that won't make it to 2023

[ganesh]

7 hours ago, Chicharito said:

Robert Salah! Because it’s the jets .

not happening.

[Doc Brown]

I don't see too many leaving after the avalanche of firings/resignations the last couple of years.  I think the Colts make the playoffs with Reich and the Skins have a .500 type season and with all the shady stuff at the top they'll value having a steady presence in Ron Rivera.

 

I'll go with Matt Rhule - he reminds me of Fangio last year at this time.  A solid defense with nobody at quarterback with questionable game management skills.

Mike McCarthy (replaced by Kenny Moore) - it's the Cowboys.  Eagles win the division.  Cowboys sneak into Wild Card spot and go one and done.

Arthur Smith - Falcons won't win more than five games and Blank will want a new head coach/gm to pick their next franchise QB at the top of the draft next year.

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, aristocrat said:

tony dungy built a roster but it took gruden to get a ring. I hope mcd gets us the ring this year but if he doesn’t…

 

Then we try again next year.

4 hours ago, BillsfaninSB said:

If the Colts miss the playoffs again I can see Frank Reich getting shown the door. 

 

They have been put on notice Reich and Ballard it is post season or else. 

[GunnerBill]

Coaches I actually think could go:

 

The Firings

 

1. Matt Rhule. It's post season or bust and they don't have a Quarterback. I see a controversy the whole year between Darnold and Corral some swapping back and forth a 5 win season and a house cleaning.

 

2. Kliff Kingsbury. The bar is higher for Kliff. He doesn't just have to make the playoffs he has to win a playoff game. Who knows what happens with Kyler but I see them 1 game either side of .500.

 

3. Ron Rivera. I just don't see a route for them to be good with Wentz. Could be an ownership change coming. Can see them trying their luck on young offensive hotshot. 

 

4. Mike McCarthy. I think the Cowboys want Kellen Moore to be the Head Coach. So unless McCarthy makes an NFCCG - which is not likely but is possible, they still have one of the best rosters in the conference - then he is out. 

 

Possible resignations / retirements

 

1. Pete Carroll. No Russ to bail them out will expose just how poor the rest of that roster is. I think Schneider and Pete could be out. The only saving grace might be disengaged ownership not willing to make the big call. 

 

2. Bill Belichick. As it stands I have the Pats to be 4th in the division. Two years ago when Brady left and everyone predicted doom I was almost a lone voice saying they will still be close to .500 because they have an elite secondary and an elite oline. Well now those two units are severely weakend and I can't see any other unit that is seriously upgraded to pick up the slack. They could be in line for a top 5 pick. Not sure Bill is in for that sort of long term rebuild.

 

3. Mike Vrabel. There does seem some disharmony behind the scenes in Tennessee. Not sure Vrabel was on board with teading his best offensive player. I still think the Titans are at worst a wild card contending team. They have too many good players not to be. But let's say they struggle to score points go 9-8 and miss the playoffs. Maybe Vrabel wants out. 

[mannc]

17 hours ago, mushypeaches said:

I thought this would be an interesting exercise to look at with a full 4 months to go before the season starts.  In many years, it's easy to pick out 6-8 coaches that seem to be on their last legs and need a miracle to make it past the upcoming season.  With the unprecedented number of 1st & 2nd year coaches this year, it becomes a little bit more difficult, but I'll try to rank who I think will be out by Black Monday:

 

1. Matt Rhule (Carolina) - this organization is just flailing about with the continuous mediocre QB carousel and an owner who hasn't won yet and doesn't seem to be the most patient guy around.  Plus - he doesn't seem to have a lot of respect from players and doesn't seem to be much of a game-day coach either.  It's hard to see this team winning more than 6 games, and he'll be done after Year 3.  Rhule is far and away the odds-on favorite and a big game from anyone at #2 and lower on this list.
2. Mike McCarthy (Dallas) - I gave a lot of thought to Kliff Kingsbury in this space, as I think he's "all hat, no cattle".  But then I looked it up and saw that Arizona gave him a 6 year extension (!).  So it has to be McCarthy, who with all the talent they have on the Cowboys, continues to be a raging tire fire of a game-day coach, as evidenced by the debacle at the end of their last playoff game.  I get that Jerry Jones is often overly loyal to coaches that he can push around (Jason Garrett), but I can't see McCarthy lasting past this season with an older and less talented roster.
3. Ron Rivera (Washington) - hard to believe that he comes in at #3 on my list with all the hard work that he's done to help improve the image and professionalism of that sorry franchise.  But he's had consecutive 7 win seasons to start his tenure there, which again, might be seen as a positive given all the turmoil at QB, but he's stuck with Jeff George 2.0 in Carson Wentz, who you can't help but think is going to be a disaster in Washington.  Plus, the overall team just isn't that talented either, so you have to wonder if Dan Snyder pulls the plug after this season
4. Pete Carroll (Seattle) - amazing to see how far this franchise has fallen.  Their drafting and personnel decisions have been a mess the past few years and I think that Carroll's act has grown stale as well.  He's now on the wrong side of 70 and another mediocre season could see him walk away, if not fired outright.
5. Lovie Smith (Houston) - does he even see year #2 after how ownership treated David Culley?  They're not going to win more than 5 games with Davis Mills and a young roster and Smith just seems to be another placeholder for when they draft a top QB next year and pair him with some rising offensive mind.
6. Mike Vrabel (Tennessee) - he's been a solid coach for that organization, but he doesn't seem to be on the same page with ownership and/or his GM, and after last year's playoff debacle, I think the Titans could plummet a long way this season, especially if they have more major injuries or Tannehill falls off a cliff.
7. Kevin Stefanski (Cleveland) - going into a pivotal year #3 - the first season was a raging success, but they went through a lot of organizational upheaval in 2021, and this team could go south quickly in a tough AFC, especially if Watson is suspended for a significant length of time, or if they just lose a lot of tough games.  Never count out Cleveland to have a quick trigger finger with coaching staffs.
8. Bill Belichick (Satan's Armpit) - he's earned the right to go out on his own terms, but with a noodle armed QB and another underwhelming draft, could this be the year that he walks away?  I hope so after a 6-11 type season!

 

So that's my outlook on May 1.  I'm sure that many will have different opinions about the rankings but I thought this was a good conversation starter.

Great post…I think there’s a significant gap between Rhule and the rest of the field…although that division’s not exactly scary and Carolina does have some talent. But having to start a third-round rookie QB (or San Darnold) in a make-it-or-break-it season doesn’t bode well.

 

i think Stefananski may be a dark horse.  The Watson experiment is going to go up in flames, and all those who thought it would be a good idea to make a known sexual predator the face of the franchise will pay the price.

 

I also think Mr Clean deserves a mention. After the Jets “killed the draft”, expectations might be a little too high in NY, and if Zack Wilson can’t rebound from his disappointing rookie year…

[Nextmanup]

18 hours ago, mushypeaches said:

So it has to be McCarthy, who with all the talent they have on the Cowboys, continues to be a raging tire fire of a game-day coach, as evidenced by the debacle at the end of their last playoff game.

Mmmm.  Do we know any other teams that this applies to?

 

🤔

[UKBillFan]

8 hours ago, Limeaid said:

 

But if he doesn't he will still be coach following year. 

Pegulas took long view with Beane and Coach McD and  that is why both got extensions.

 

Take a public poll and see home many people think Coach McD will be canned in 2023 if he [THEY it is a team] do not get a Superbowl year this season.

 

Depends, if we fall, how far we go. Make it to the SuperBowl and lose, Championship Game, possibly even the Divisional round and he’ll be fine. Out at the Wildcard round and I think his seat will be getting hot. Anything earlier than that… Of course extenuating circumstances will come into play with any decisions being made. This isn’t just McDermott either; can imagine things heating up for LaFleur in a similar way to this at the Packers, for example.

 

Anyway, back to the original topic - Matt Rhule is a definite and I do wonder about Mike Vrabel’s as I agree he is not happy over the AJ Brown trade. Kevin Stefanski won’t last wrong if he’s given a fair crack with Watson and basically proves Baker Mayfield right.

 

[ganesh]

40 minutes ago, UKBillFan said:

Depends, if we fall, how far we go. Make it to the SuperBowl and lose, Championship Game, possibly even the Divisional round and he’ll be fine. Out at the Wildcard round and I think his seat will be getting hot. Anything earlier than that… Of course extenuating circumstances will come into play with any decisions being made. This isn’t just McDermott either; can imagine things heating up for LaFleur in a similar way to this at the Packers, for example.

 

Anyway, back to the original topic - Matt Rhule is a definite and I do wonder about Mike Vrabel’s as I agree he is not happy over the AJ Brown trade. Kevin Stefanski won’t last wrong if he’s given a fair crack with Watson and basically proves Baker Mayfield right.

 

NFL is entertainment first.  As long as the Bills continue to reach the post season and do some damage,  McDermott will be our coach.  Look at what coach Tomlin has done with the Steelers.  He won one SB and made to another with a team that was handed to him. Since then. he has put a competitive team on the field.  That sells tickets and jerseys.

[GunnerBill]

31 minutes ago, ganesh said:

NFL is entertainment first.  As long as the Bills continue to reach the post season and do some damage,  McDermott will be our coach.  Look at what coach Tomlin has done with the Steelers.  He won one SB and made to another with a team that was handed to him. Since then. he has put a competitive team on the field.  That sells tickets and jerseys.

 

I think it depends how we lose too. Not just when. Like if we 13 seconds away another couple of playoff runs he would be in trouble. But I don't think his seat is at all warm right now. It is one of the 3 or 4 safest in the entire league. If it is just a case of can't get over the hump then I think he at least gets the remainder of this contract (runs through 2025) to prove he can. At that point Josh would be about to go into his age 30 season (in 2026) and if you are going to move on that feels like the right sort of timeframe. 

 

Obviously if he misses the playoffs before that then all bets are off, but as you say if they keep making the playoffs than other than more strange meltdown type scenarios he is safe at least until the end of that contract IMO. 

[Greg S]

19 hours ago, mushypeaches said:

I thought this would be an interesting exercise to look at with a full 4 months to go before the season starts.  In many years, it's easy to pick out 6-8 coaches that seem to be on their last legs and need a miracle to make it past the upcoming season.  With the unprecedented number of 1st & 2nd year coaches this year, it becomes a little bit more difficult, but I'll try to rank who I think will be out by Black Monday:

 

1. Matt Rhule (Carolina) - this organization is just flailing about with the continuous mediocre QB carousel and an owner who hasn't won yet and doesn't seem to be the most patient guy around.  Plus - he doesn't seem to have a lot of respect from players and doesn't seem to be much of a game-day coach either.  It's hard to see this team winning more than 6 games, and he'll be done after Year 3.  Rhule is far and away the odds-on favorite and a big game from anyone at #2 and lower on this list.
2. Mike McCarthy (Dallas) - I gave a lot of thought to Kliff Kingsbury in this space, as I think he's "all hat, no cattle".  But then I looked it up and saw that Arizona gave him a 6 year extension (!).  So it has to be McCarthy, who with all the talent they have on the Cowboys, continues to be a raging tire fire of a game-day coach, as evidenced by the debacle at the end of their last playoff game.  I get that Jerry Jones is often overly loyal to coaches that he can push around (Jason Garrett), but I can't see McCarthy lasting past this season with an older and less talented roster.
3. Ron Rivera (Washington) - hard to believe that he comes in at #3 on my list with all the hard work that he's done to help improve the image and professionalism of that sorry franchise.  But he's had consecutive 7 win seasons to start his tenure there, which again, might be seen as a positive given all the turmoil at QB, but he's stuck with Jeff George 2.0 in Carson Wentz, who you can't help but think is going to be a disaster in Washington.  Plus, the overall team just isn't that talented either, so you have to wonder if Dan Snyder pulls the plug after this season
4. Pete Carroll (Seattle) - amazing to see how far this franchise has fallen.  Their drafting and personnel decisions have been a mess the past few years and I think that Carroll's act has grown stale as well.  He's now on the wrong side of 70 and another mediocre season could see him walk away, if not fired outright.
5. Lovie Smith (Houston) - does he even see year #2 after how ownership treated David Culley?  They're not going to win more than 5 games with Davis Mills and a young roster and Smith just seems to be another placeholder for when they draft a top QB next year and pair him with some rising offensive mind.
6. Mike Vrabel (Tennessee) - he's been a solid coach for that organization, but he doesn't seem to be on the same page with ownership and/or his GM, and after last year's playoff debacle, I think the Titans could plummet a long way this season, especially if they have more major injuries or Tannehill falls off a cliff.
7. Kevin Stefanski (Cleveland) - going into a pivotal year #3 - the first season was a raging success, but they went through a lot of organizational upheaval in 2021, and this team could go south quickly in a tough AFC, especially if Watson is suspended for a significant length of time, or if they just lose a lot of tough games.  Never count out Cleveland to have a quick trigger finger with coaching staffs.
8. Bill Belichick (Satan's Armpit) - he's earned the right to go out on his own terms, but with a noodle armed QB and another underwhelming draft, could this be the year that he walks away?  I hope so after a 6-11 type season!

 

So that's my outlook on May 1.  I'm sure that many will have different opinions about the rankings but I thought this was a good conversation starter.

 

What if McDermott doesn't win a Super Bowl this year and Bill does leave NE. Should Terry Pegula throw a blank check his way to coach the Bills?

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

1 hour ago, Greg S said:

 

What if McDermott doesn't win a Super Bowl this year and Bill does leave NE. Should Terry Pegula throw a blank check his way to coach the Bills?

FFS. 🤦🏻‍♂️
If so, Beane will need a bulletproof vest worn backwards.  A lot of knives will be out...

[Greg S]

4 minutes ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

FFS. 🤦🏻‍♂️
If so, Beane will need a bulletproof vest worn backwards.  A lot of knives will be out...

 

Honestly I would think about doing it IF McDermott fails again and Bill becomes available. Hoodie would win a Super Bowl with the roster Beane has put together especially with #17 leading the way. This is wishful thinking because I doubt Bill leaves NE and if he does it will be to retire. He is around 70 and doesn't need the money.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

12 hours ago, Limeaid said:

 

But if he doesn't he will still be coach following year. 

Pegulas took long view with Beane and Coach McD and  that is why both got extensions.

 

Take a public poll and see home many people think Coach McD will be canned in 2023 if he [THEY it is a team] do not get a Superbowl year this season.

 

There is almost zero chance McD loses his job no matter the outcome. Even if they finish out of the playoffs he will get one more year.

Let's hope he is better than  Bill Cower and Andy Reid and can get the job done sooner rather than later.

[Greg S]

4 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

There is almost zero chance McD loses his job no matter the outcome. Even if they finish out of the playoffs he will get one more year.

Let's hope he is better than  Bill Cower and Andy Reid and can get the job done sooner rather than later.

 

He better hope Pegula fires him if this happen. If not the WNY faithful will run him out of town with pitchforks and knives.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

12 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

Doubt Kraft would fire BB in NE.  What could happen is Kraft tires of the lack of talent and tells BB that he wants to bring in a GM/president type to head up the draft, BB refuses and resigns.

New England made the playoffs last year if I recall.

Many AFC teams seem better on paper and I would not predict NE making the playoffs this season.  But no one thought they would make it last year. Lots of things can happen especially wit ha team that has all the pressure to win now like the Bills. Some teams thrive with that others do not. Bills weren't prepared to beat the Steelers week 1 last season and got outcoached in snow game and KC playoff game. 

All that said, this team should win 12 games and no doubt one of those 4 losses will be unexpected.  Its just how the NFL is year after year.

[Starr Almighty]

11 hours ago, BUFFALOBART said:

..And who exactly, do you have in mind, to replace him?

The "Chin" of course 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

3 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

New England made the playoffs last year if I recall.

Many AFC teams seem better on paper and I would not predict NE making the playoffs this season.  But no one thought they would make it last year. Lots of things can happen especially wit ha team that has all the pressure to win now like the Bills. Some teams thrive with that others do not. Bills weren't prepared to beat the Steelers week 1 last season and got outcoached in snow game and KC playoff game. 

All that said, this team should win 12 games and no doubt one of those 4 losses will be unexpected.  Its just how the NFL is year after year.

Wait are they playing 17 games again this year?

[Greg S]

10 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Wait are they playing 17 games again this year?

 

Yes. This year the AFC gets 8 home games and the NFC gets 9. At some point they have to go to 18 games because 9-8/8-9 home/road schedule is dumb.

[mannc]

1 minute ago, Greg S said:

 

Yes. This year the AFC gets 8 home games and the NFC gets 9. At some point they have to go to 18 games because 9-8/8-9 home/road schedule is dumb.

Why? It’s becoming clear that home field is all but meaningless these days…

[Greg S]

2 minutes ago, mannc said:

Why? It’s becoming clear that home field is all but meaningless these days…

 

Having an odd numbered game schedule is weird. Just for "competitive fairness" it should be 18 games with 9 at home and on the road. The league is heading that way anyway. Preseason probably gets reduced to 2 games. That would be my guess.