Projecting coaches that won't make it to 2023

[mushypeaches]

I thought this would be an interesting exercise to look at with a full 4 months to go before the season starts.  In many years, it's easy to pick out 6-8 coaches that seem to be on their last legs and need a miracle to make it past the upcoming season.  With the unprecedented number of 1st & 2nd year coaches this year, it becomes a little bit more difficult, but I'll try to rank who I think will be out by Black Monday:

 

1. Matt Rhule (Carolina) - this organization is just flailing about with the continuous mediocre QB carousel and an owner who hasn't won yet and doesn't seem to be the most patient guy around.  Plus - he doesn't seem to have a lot of respect from players and doesn't seem to be much of a game-day coach either.  It's hard to see this team winning more than 6 games, and he'll be done after Year 3.  Rhule is far and away the odds-on favorite and a big game from anyone at #2 and lower on this list.
2. Mike McCarthy (Dallas) - I gave a lot of thought to Kliff Kingsbury in this space, as I think he's "all hat, no cattle".  But then I looked it up and saw that Arizona gave him a 6 year extension (!).  So it has to be McCarthy, who with all the talent they have on the Cowboys, continues to be a raging tire fire of a game-day coach, as evidenced by the debacle at the end of their last playoff game.  I get that Jerry Jones is often overly loyal to coaches that he can push around (Jason Garrett), but I can't see McCarthy lasting past this season with an older and less talented roster.
3. Ron Rivera (Washington) - hard to believe that he comes in at #3 on my list with all the hard work that he's done to help improve the image and professionalism of that sorry franchise.  But he's had consecutive 7 win seasons to start his tenure there, which again, might be seen as a positive given all the turmoil at QB, but he's stuck with Jeff George 2.0 in Carson Wentz, who you can't help but think is going to be a disaster in Washington.  Plus, the overall team just isn't that talented either, so you have to wonder if Dan Snyder pulls the plug after this season
4. Pete Carroll (Seattle) - amazing to see how far this franchise has fallen.  Their drafting and personnel decisions have been a mess the past few years and I think that Carroll's act has grown stale as well.  He's now on the wrong side of 70 and another mediocre season could see him walk away, if not fired outright.
5. Lovie Smith (Houston) - does he even see year #2 after how ownership treated David Culley?  They're not going to win more than 5 games with Davis Mills and a young roster and Smith just seems to be another placeholder for when they draft a top QB next year and pair him with some rising offensive mind.
6. Mike Vrabel (Tennessee) - he's been a solid coach for that organization, but he doesn't seem to be on the same page with ownership and/or his GM, and after last year's playoff debacle, I think the Titans could plummet a long way this season, especially if they have more major injuries or Tannehill falls off a cliff.
7. Kevin Stefanski (Cleveland) - going into a pivotal year #3 - the first season was a raging success, but they went through a lot of organizational upheaval in 2021, and this team could go south quickly in a tough AFC, especially if Watson is suspended for a significant length of time, or if they just lose a lot of tough games.  Never count out Cleveland to have a quick trigger finger with coaching staffs.
8. Bill Belichick (Satan's Armpit) - he's earned the right to go out on his own terms, but with a noodle armed QB and another underwhelming draft, could this be the year that he walks away?  I hope so after a 6-11 type season!

 

So that's my outlook on May 1.  I'm sure that many will have different opinions about the rankings but I thought this was a good conversation starter.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Good topic.  Agree with your top two.

 

1. McCarthy

1a. Rhule

2. Vrabel

3. Rivera- won't be his fault but defense alone does not win them 8 games. Wentz will need to play very well to keep them from finishing below the Giants

4. Kingsbury - they were terrible down the stretch last season. He has a QB controversy brewing. If LA doesn't get complacent a third place finish in the division is really possible.

5. Carroll - would seem odd to trade away Wilson and then can the coach without a viable option at QB. But as you said age alone probably keeps him on this list

[Solomon Grundy]

I’m gonna say Mike McDonald. Especially if Brady goes to Miami 

[Chicharito]

Robert Salah! Because it’s the jets .

[Saxum]

Thought this was one of those deathwatch threads.

[turftoe]

I would add New Orleans to that list. Doug Marrone will soon be undermining Dennis Allen, if he hasn’t started already.

[MrEpsYtown]

1 minute ago, turftoe said:

I would add New Orleans to that list. Doug Marrone will soon be undermining Dennis Allen, if he hasn’t started already.

Obviously 

[buffblue]

8 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

I’m gonna say Mike McDonald. Especially if Brady goes to Miami 

 

Yeah his offensively philosophy is a little overrated...

 

[aristocrat]

McD if he doesn’t get us a ring.

[turftoe]

25 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Obviously 

Love it

[StHustle]

Belichick will just lose his GM role...no way he's fired as a coach without them trying him pair him with a real GM first...now if Bill refuses then he will probably resign or retire

[Saxum]

25 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

McD if he doesn’t get us a ring.

 

Should change name to aristocad.

[aristocrat]

17 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

 

Should change name to aristocad.

tony dungy built a roster but it took gruden to get a ring. I hope mcd gets us the ring this year but if he doesn’t…

[Saxum]

1 minute ago, aristocrat said:

tony dungy built a roster but it took gruden to get a ring. I hope mcd gets us the ring this year but if he doesn’t…

 

But if he doesn't he will still be coach following year. 

Pegulas took long view with Beane and Coach McD and  that is why both got extensions.

 

Take a public poll and see home many people think Coach McD will be canned in 2023 if he [THEY it is a team] do not get a Superbowl year this season.

 

[Bruffalo]

1 hour ago, aristocrat said:

McD if he doesn’t get us a ring.

This is straight up fan fiction. There's no way you think this is true.

[MJS]

I keep hearing about all this talent that Dallas has. You know what I think? They are just overrated. They don't have the level of talent that everyone praises them for. They fail sometimes because they AREN'T talented enough.

 

I know they like to pay some of their players like they are the best in the league, but they're not. And that starts with Dak. Dak is a good QB, but he is overrated. He isn't good enough to be considered elite. He can't carry the team himself. Everyone expects him to be able to, and when he continues to fail to do it year after year, they blame coaching and everyone else. He is a stat aggregator, not a true winning QB. You know, like Kirk Cousins.

 

They have enough talent to be consistently pretty good and occasionally beat up on another team, but not enough talent to be a true contender.

51 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

tony dungy built a roster but it took gruden to get a ring. I hope mcd gets us the ring this year but if he doesn’t…

If he doesn't, he'll still be the coach. Is that what you were going to say?

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

10 hours ago, mushypeaches said:

I thought this would be an interesting exercise to look at with a full 4 months to go before the season starts.  In many years, it's easy to pick out 6-8 coaches that seem to be on their last legs and need a miracle to make it past the upcoming season.  With the unprecedented number of 1st & 2nd year coaches this year, it becomes a little bit more difficult, but I'll try to rank who I think will be out by Black Monday:

 

1. Matt Rhule (Carolina) - this organization is just flailing about with the continuous mediocre QB carousel and an owner who hasn't won yet and doesn't seem to be the most patient guy around.  Plus - he doesn't seem to have a lot of respect from players and doesn't seem to be much of a game-day coach either.  It's hard to see this team winning more than 6 games, and he'll be done after Year 3.  Rhule is far and away the odds-on favorite and a big game from anyone at #2 and lower on this list.
2. Mike McCarthy (Dallas) - I gave a lot of thought to Kliff Kingsbury in this space, as I think he's "all hat, no cattle".  But then I looked it up and saw that Arizona gave him a 6 year extension (!).  So it has to be McCarthy, who with all the talent they have on the Cowboys, continues to be a raging tire fire of a game-day coach, as evidenced by the debacle at the end of their last playoff game.  I get that Jerry Jones is often overly loyal to coaches that he can push around (Jason Garrett), but I can't see McCarthy lasting past this season with an older and less talented roster.
3. Ron Rivera (Washington) - hard to believe that he comes in at #3 on my list with all the hard work that he's done to help improve the image and professionalism of that sorry franchise.  But he's had consecutive 7 win seasons to start his tenure there, which again, might be seen as a positive given all the turmoil at QB, but he's stuck with Jeff George 2.0 in Carson Wentz, who you can't help but think is going to be a disaster in Washington.  Plus, the overall team just isn't that talented either, so you have to wonder if Dan Snyder pulls the plug after this season
4. Pete Carroll (Seattle) - amazing to see how far this franchise has fallen.  Their drafting and personnel decisions have been a mess the past few years and I think that Carroll's act has grown stale as well.  He's now on the wrong side of 70 and another mediocre season could see him walk away, if not fired outright.
5. Lovie Smith (Houston) - does he even see year #2 after how ownership treated David Culley?  They're not going to win more than 5 games with Davis Mills and a young roster and Smith just seems to be another placeholder for when they draft a top QB next year and pair him with some rising offensive mind.
6. Mike Vrabel (Tennessee) - he's been a solid coach for that organization, but he doesn't seem to be on the same page with ownership and/or his GM, and after last year's playoff debacle, I think the Titans could plummet a long way this season, especially if they have more major injuries or Tannehill falls off a cliff.
7. Kevin Stefanski (Cleveland) - going into a pivotal year #3 - the first season was a raging success, but they went through a lot of organizational upheaval in 2021, and this team could go south quickly in a tough AFC, especially if Watson is suspended for a significant length of time, or if they just lose a lot of tough games.  Never count out Cleveland to have a quick trigger finger with coaching staffs.
8. Bill Belichick (Satan's Armpit) - he's earned the right to go out on his own terms, but with a noodle armed QB and another underwhelming draft, could this be the year that he walks away?  I hope so after a 6-11 type season!

 

So that's my outlook on May 1.  I'm sure that many will have different opinions about the rankings but I thought this was a good conversation starter.

 

Bill Belichick as much as he annoys me is an amazing coach, he took a noddle armed QB as you stated and took them to the playoffs in the rookies 1st season, I'm pretty sure he can do whatever he wants until he feels like calling it quits but that's just my opinion.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Doubt Kraft would fire BB in NE.  What could happen is Kraft tires of the lack of talent and tells BB that he wants to bring in a GM/president type to head up the draft, BB refuses and resigns.

[Big Blitz]

Kingsbury if everything falls apart with Murray.  

[BillsfaninSB]

If the Colts miss the playoffs again I can see Frank Reich getting shown the door.