2022 NFL Draft - Day 3 debrief

[GunnerBill]

It's over for another year. The unpredictable chaos that is the NFL Draft never disappoints. Let's pick the bones of day three.

 

The Bills picks...

Five picks in the final three rounds for Buffalo following their trade downs on Friday evening. The first is the one guy that they drafted last night that I have properly scouted - Khalil Shakir, the wide receiver out of Boise State. To get him with a trade up early in the 5th was exceptional value and indeed Brandon Beane said at his presser he was the guy he'd have take at #130 if he still had his original 4th round pick. I had a late 3rd round grade on Shakir and he was at the time of selection the best receiver I had remaining other than Justyn Ross who ends up as an UDFA for medical reasons. So I like the player and I like the pick... but the concern I have about the Bills being one injury away from Jake Kumerow playing meaningful snaps still remains. Yes, Shakir split his time at Boise between lining up wide and in the slot. And he has some nice highlight film of him making circus catches when he was outside. But without wishing to appear negative a more concerted film study shows some issues with his functional strength against bigger corners and a tendency to get sloppy at the top of his downfield routes where he rounds them off rather than finishing with precision. While he can take some snaps out there if you just want him to spell your starters, my personal view is that he would struggle if you were relying on him as one of your starting boundary guys over a prolonged period. Where he can be a weapon in this league is in the slot where he has a nice combination of speed and wiggle and is a YAC beast with the ball in his hands. He is bigger and faster version of Jamison Crowder and the Bills will not have to worry about bringing Crowder back at the end of his 1 year deal, they can simply ease Shakir in as 2022 goes along and have him ready to take over in 2023 as this team's primary slot receiver. 

 

As for our other picks... I don't have much to say. I don't scout punters but obviously it was a need position and Matt Arazia certainly has a huge leg. The videos I have seen hang time would be somewhat of a concern and while when he catches one properly he likely takes returns out of the picture he only has to slightly mis-hit one and a big return becomes a risk because he almost line drives them. Getting him and the coverage unit in sync in camp and pre-season will matter, but I'm 99.9% convinced that he will win the job. Christian Benford is a developmental boundary corner who seems to be a good size / speed combination guy and might have a bit more natural physical ability than Dane Jackson looking at his testing. If the Bills coaches can coach him up they might really have something there. Interesting note - even when the Bills draft a corner in round 6 they have 31" arms. They were never taking Trent McDuffie. Book it. Luke Tenuta the tackle for Virginia Tech is very much not their normal type because while he is huge 6'8, he isn't particularly athletic. That was the one that surprised me the most. Again not seen a minute of his film and we know they like massive tackles, but his selection was the least "on brand." Finally Baylon Spector who I have at least had some exposure to in watching other prospects on the Clemson defense. I hadn't done a deep dive so he wasn't on my board but I had given him an indicative 7th/UDFA grade as a career backup who could be a core special teams player. Not the biggest but he flies around the field, super athletic. He will be an asset on teams as a rookie if he makes the roster. 

 

The UDFAs

I think we are up to 7 confirmed UDFAs at this point. Jaylen Wydermyer is the biggest name and the most intriguing. He went into the season as some people's number 1 tight end and while he had over 500 yards and 4 touchdowns for Texas A&M in 2021 he didn't pop as some expected him to and he tested appallingly badly at the Combine leading some to question whether he had bothered to workout at all in the run up to it. There is some natural ability there and the Bills missed the Tight End run which happened while they were sitting out round 4. There is a path to the roster for him as it is a weak spot behind Knox and Howard. Of the rest Travon Fuller the corner from Tulsa has some inside / outside flex and decent speed. Likely a practice squad guy but some potential down the line will be interested to watch him in pre-season. Frustrated that there is no outside receiver on this list so far... just another slot guy. I was hoping Isaiah Weston might be a target but the Browns snapped him up (makes sense for him, easier path to the roster). 

 

Other notable moves

I thought Green Bay had a really nice day 3. I hammered their day 1 activity but they redeemed themselves with what followed. Adding Romeo Doubs to Christian Watson taken in round 2 gives them two super talented young wideouts to develop and while I doubt anyone replaces Davante Adams off the bat I think they are definitely deeper at receiver than they were last year, just without a single elite guy. Then Zach Tom, Kingsley Enagbare and Rasheed Walker were all great value and at positions of need for them. Wouldn't be surprised if in 2 years time all 3 are at least key rotational guys if not starters. I thought the Raiders did a nice job too. Zamir White will create a good 1-2 punch with Josh Jacobs. Matthew Butler the DT from Tennessee could push to start as a rookie and Thayer Munford the OL from Ohio State is a versatile swing OL who you love to have up on gameday to backup multiple spots. The Chiefs added two big corners in Joshua Williams and Jaylen Watson and took Darian Kinnard who I still think as an interior guy can be a starting OL in the NFL. He likely backs up Trey Smith and Joe Thuney as a rookie. Didn't love Kansas City's approach in round 1 - but they had a very good draft after that. 

 

And then there were NINE....

Nine guys left on my board that went undrafted. Should start with Carson Strong and Justyn Ross who are clearly not in this list on the basis of talent. I did say in my QB evaluations thread that what I'd heard on Strong's knee was that it was so severely damaged teams don't believe he makes a second contract. Similarly Ross's spinal surgery seems to have taken him totally off boards despite returning to play in 2021. It's a real shame for both guys. Strong has already latched on as an UDFA. Ross hasn't yet which either means interest is slow or it means interest is high and he is taking his time making a choice. If both guys want to continue playing football I wish the best for both of them. So in terms of my 9 remaining players and where they landed as UDFAs - and the first thing to note is that the Eagles who we know were in for corners in FA (especially Gilmore) and struck out and then didn't manage to draft one have taken some shots with undrafted guys from big schools:

 

1. Carson Strong*, QB, Nevada - PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

2. Justyn Ross*, WR, Clemson - TBC

3. Dohnovan West, IOL, Arizona State - SAN FANCISCO 49ers

4. Verone McKinley, S, Oregon - MIAMI DOLPHINS

5. Alec Lindstrom, IOL, Boston College - DALLAS COWBOYS

6. Tre Turner, WR, Virginia Tech - MINNESOTA VIKINGS

7. Smoke Monday, S, Auburn - NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

8. Mario Goodrich, CB, Clemson - PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

9. Josh Jobe, CB, Alabama - PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

 

There were also two guys I flagged in my "sleepers" post who didn't get drafted (5 of the 7 did which is probably 1 or 2 more than I expected):

 

Isaiah Weston, WR, Northern Iowa - CLEVELAND BROWNS

D'Vonate Price, RB, Florida International - INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

 

I think that is a good group of UDFAs entering the league and probably does reflect the fact that this draft while lacking star power at the top (and elite Quarterback prospects) was a deep class on days 2 and 3. As I always do in January / February next year I'll look back at this list of 11 names and review whether they made rosters and / or made impacts in their rookie seasons. 

 

But for now, it's over. Another year in the books. I have that slightly bereft feeling now. But as night follows day one draft season follows the next. I'll be ready by the time the CFB season rolls round to start again! Hope folks enjoyed reading the de-briefs and my pre-draft stuff and benefitted from my BPA lists as things went along on days 2 and 3. Now the focus turns to the season and the Bills Superbowl quest!!

 

 

 

Edited May 1, 2022 by GunnerBill

[LyndonvilleBill]

As always GB, love reading the information, details and the follow up you provide. 

 

That Tenuta pick is the one that I really don't understand. Even after reading up on him. This is the one that I just don't get.

 

The others, I wasn't familiar with at all (Benford and Spector), but at least after reading up on them, I can see what they were looking at and can understand those picks.

 

Like most I think, Just really surprised we didn't take a swing at an outside WR. I was hoping for I. Weston as I thought he was worth a late round swing at. 

 

Anyways, Thanks for all the effort and time you put into your research,  detailed information and posts. I really enjoy them.👍

[MasterStrategist]

Great analysis.

 

1. WR (outside depth): I'm less concerned about this.  Shakir can play both, same with Crowder, albeit not their best positions.  Remembering we are basically in the same boat as last year, minus Manny and Beas...where Crowder/Shakir can be the Manny replacement and Beas never could translate to outside.  We also have plenty of ways of "splitting out" Dawson, Cook, Oj etc

 

2. I know nothing about Tenuta, except the VT coaches raved about him, ie: Teller esque praise, but that's all to say he will be a developmental project that has an outside shot of the final lineman slot.  

 

3.  Speed and versatility: the type of players that we added, just speaks to the job Beane does to improve weaknesses and continue evolving this roster.  My biggest beef with last year's draft, was lack of speed that we added...it was a meat/potato draft.  This year we get our dessert and the speed should be apparent early in the season.

 

4. Immediate value/complimentary players: should see many guys contribute this season, but I'm most excited about the complimentary skills they added to current position groups, ie: speed/receiving back, press corner ability, Yac receiving skills, etc.  Going to be a fun/athletic group.

[LEBills]

Definitely came out of the draft with some interesting pieces this year.

 

I said in another thread that I was overall disappointed in the offense. Elam should fortify the one weakness on our defense so that’s good. 
 

Cook, if used correctly, could be a defense busting chess piece. However, I envision his best usage being someone who can flip the 2TE system we hear we are going to run from a heavy running formation to a speed receiving formation. 
 

Unfortunately, for a team we expect to go 2TE a good amount, out TE2 will have to emerge from OJ Howard (unproductive and coming off major injuries), Tommy Sweeney (not a good player), Quentin Morris and Jalyn Wydermyer (two UDFAs). Would have been nice to inject some real talent behind Knox in round 3 rather than a backup linebacker. But McD gets what he wants for defense first and foremost.

 

I do love Shakir and think he will be our starting slot receiver by the playoffs, he is really good. I share your concern that we didn’t give ourselves even a lottery ticket by drafting a late rounder WR with some outside ability like Westin, Kevin Austin, Connor Tanner. Their are FAs out there still but would have been nice to try to build our WR depth.

 

I have a feeling Tenuta’s father, a long time football coach, has connections to this regime and so like with Prohl a few years ago the Bills draft them as a tip of the cap to a friend. Though I don’t know that, just speculation.

 

Overall another draft is in the books, our roster is better now than before the draft which can’t be said for some other teams. And I am excited and hopeful that our first 6 picks make a real impact.

 

I just hope between now and next years draft McDermott realizes he has to put a premium on drafting playmakers and protection for our best player - Josh Allen, even if it means having a hole or two on the defense. 

[hemma]

I am really looking forward to Training Camp at SJF this year.

[LabattBlue]

GB…nice work. I can’t imagine the total number of hours you put into it. 👍🏻

[Shake_My_Head]

Question about how team's draft boards are set up and making late round picks. 

 

I've heard it said that teams may have only 150-200 guys on their draft boards.  However, when they get to the 6th or 7th round, what do they do if every guy on their board is gone?   Do they just pick names going on measurables or personal ties?   

 

I was thinking of Tenuta, as an example.   He doesn't fit the Bills profile athletically, but his dad's a long-time college coach and may be friends with someone on the staff.   Or, do area scouts get to take fliers on guys they like?   Or maybe a dartboard or pulling names from a hat?   Any insights?

[SCBills]

Completely agree with you about the worry at outside WR. 
 

Sal keeps tweeting about “think of the group as pass catchers and not positional players” but that still doesn’t make sense to me, even if that’s truly what we believe. 
 

Diggs and Davis have different skill sets and strengths than Jamison Crowder and Isaiah McKenzie.  That’s a fact.  
 

As talented as our weaponry is.. and Singletary, Cook, Knox, Howard, Diggs, Davis, Crowder, McKenzie, Shakir etc is a very talented group…we are still a high angle sprain or hammy pull to Diggs or Davis from Kumerow, Stevenson if he makes the team, or a slot guy having to take meaningful snaps outside. 
 

Im guessing Shakir would be outside depth, but while he can do it.. it’s not his strength.. at least based on his college film. 

[HappyDays]

I had a chance to hear Brandon Beane, Terrance Gray, and Brian Gaine speak at a season ticket holder event today. They talked a little about each draft pick. Here's some nuggets I took down about the day 3 guys:

 

-Beane said they see Shakir as the "WR #4" which is the same position they had Davis in last year, basically the guy that they play all over the field depending on the formation. He admitted Shakir would be in the slot as his first position, but they must feel some level of comfort with him outside. So if you're looking at the WR room it is now Davis as the primary #2 and Shakir stepping into Davis' role from last year.

 

-Beane said Christian Benford was a top 30 visit. I don't think that was reported anywhere so I thought that was interesting. He mentioned that Benford has what they look for in terms of length and athleticism for the position.

 

-He didn't say much about Luke Tenuta but he compared him to Tommy Doyle so I suppose he's here to make sure Doyle isn't just handed the 6th OL job.

 

-Baylon Spector he mentioned to be a really good character fit, being a team captain from a winning program.

 

And just a few other random nuggets:

 

-Beane said their final board was around 125-130 players. They started with 400 in February and whittled it down from there.

 

-They really like Elam's press man ability. Beane said there were certain opponents last year where they would have liked to have that option but they couldn't with the CBs on the roster. He said Elam's skill set will give Frazier more options in how he can arrange the secondary.

 

-Beane said on their first trade back to #60 they had about 4-5 players ranked very closely at #57 which is why they felt comfortable moving back. When #60 came around none of those 4-5 players had been taken so they once again felt comfortable moving back to #63. And then by #63 one of those 4-5 players had been drafted so they didnt want to move back further. The players taken between 60 and 63 were Cam Taylor-Britt, Drake Jackson, and Bryan Cook, so one of those players was an option for us at the end of the 2nd. Luke Goedeke, Troy Andersen, and Ed Ingram were all taken between picks 57 and 60 so apparently none of those players were graded high enough on our board to be taken that early. As usual Beane speaks honestly enough that you can figure certain things out if you're paying attention.

 

-On Jordan Poyer, Beane wasn't overly commital but he did say he expects Poyer to be here this season. Then again I'm pretty sure he said the exact same thing about Beasley after the season so it doesn't really mean anything.

[716er]

8 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

-Beane said they see Shakir as the "WR #4" which is the same position they had Davis in last year, basically the guy that they play all over the field depending on the formation. He admitted Shakir would be in the slot as his first position, but they must feel some level of comfort with him outside. So if you're looking at the WR room it is now Davis as the primary #2 and Shakir stepping into Davis' role from last year.

 

 

If this is the case I don't see how Crowder makes the team unless he's playing special teams snaps or someone is injured in camp.

 

Diggs

Davis

McKenzie

Shakir

Crowder

Kumerow

Stevenson

 

Could see Crowder getting cut to bring in an outside guy.

[HappyDays]

3 minutes ago, 716er said:

 

If this is the case I don't see how Crowder makes the team unless he's playing special teams snaps or someone is injured in camp.

 

Diggs

Davis

McKenzie

Shakir

Crowder

Kumerow

Stevenson

 

Could see Crowder getting cut to bring in an outside guy.

 

The Bills under McDermott don't like relying on rookies too much so I think Crowder is safe. Unless Shakir beats him outright in camp he is going to be our primary slot WR. McKenzie is the one I'm not sure about. James Cook and Khalil Shakir might make his role redundant.

[Buddo]

Crowder is too good a player to get cut. He will beat out the rest for the slot position. Comfortably.

 

Kumerow is the guy in serious danger, imho, although it could be Stevenson.

 

Kumerow might be worth trying to convert into a TE, if he bulks up and blocks better.

[No_Matter_What]

In Gunner's Day 2 Debrief I was quite vocal about Terrel Bernard pick - I didn't like it at all since I felt that was a huge reach. So I need to stop by and say that Shakir pick makes up for in in terms of value. From now on I'll consider both 4th round picks and my soul can rest in peace

 

Speaking about UDFA, I was really surprised how many of them actually make our roster. I am talking only about those, who were originally signed as UDFA by the Bills. Right now it is Cam Lewis, Tyrel Dodson, Ike Boettger and Reggie Gilliam (plus Reid Ferguson, but nobody drafts LSs so that's logical). Recently it was also Levi Wallace and Justin Zimmer. Then there are lot of guys who hand around and never actually make 53 man roster.

 

So it will be interesting to see if somebody gets in this time. Now it surely looks that Wydermyer could be the man since we are lacking in TE department and he can play.

 

 

[BillsShredder83]

12 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

But for now, it's over. Another year in the books. I have that slightly bereft feeling now. But as night follows day one draft season follows the next. I'll be ready by the time the CFB season rolls round to start again! Hope folks enjoyed reading the de-briefs and my pre-draft stuff and benefitted from my BPA lists as things went along on days 2 and 3. Now the focus turns to the season and the Bills Superbowl quest!!

 

 

 

I get this way at the end of the draft too. Weird how much fun these are while literally zero actual football is played

[MrEpsYtown]

3 hours ago, Buddo said:

Crowder is too good a player to get cut. He will beat out the rest for the slot position. Comfortably.

 

Kumerow is the guy in serious danger, imho, although it could be Stevenson.

 

Kumerow might be worth trying to convert into a TE, if he bulks up and blocks better.

It’s early obviously but I think Stevenson will be a goner. It depends on how much they value Kumerow on special teams. Shakir does everything Stevenson does but better and even ran a faster 40.  

[Shaw66]

33 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

It’s early obviously but I think Stevenson will be a goner. It depends on how much they value Kumerow on special teams. Shakir does everything Stevenson does but better and even ran a faster 40.  

Well, that's one take.  As you say, it's early.  I'd say not to take too lightly the benefit of a year's experience in the NFL.  Stevenson and Shakir both come from good but relatively small-time programs, and the NFL is a whole nother thing.  Stevenson has had an off season to hone skills that he needs, and Shakir might need a year, too.   So, as much as I didn't much that Stevenson had to offer, I want to see what he looks like after a real off-season, a training camp, and some preseason games.  If Shakir takes his job at the end of the summer, then we'll know.  

[BigAl2526]

The problem with Tenuta is his size.  Being 6'8" would seem to put the kabosh on any notion of inside outside versatility.  Playing on the inside on the line is all about leverage, and that means getting lower than your opponent across the line.  That's tough to do at 6'8" though perhaps not impossible.  Obviously, Dawkins and Brown look entrenched on the ends of the line.  Buffalo signed David Quessenberry to play, or at least compete strongly, for the role of swing tackle.  They also have Tommy Doyle, another 6'8" guy they picked up in the draft last season.  To win a spot on the 53 man roster, Tenuta would have to beat out Doyle at least.   Since he's obviously not going to be the second guy on the depth chart behind Dawkins and Brown, it would be better for him if he had some inside/outside flexibility, since the interior is where the Bills' depth is probably weakest.

[MrEpsYtown]

20 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Well, that's one take.  As you say, it's early.  I'd say not to take too lightly the benefit of a year's experience in the NFL.  Stevenson and Shakir both come from good but relatively small-time programs, and the NFL is a whole nother thing.  Stevenson has had an off season to hone skills that he needs, and Shakir might need a year, too.   So, as much as I didn't much that Stevenson had to offer, I want to see what he looks like after a real off-season, a training camp, and some preseason games.  If Shakir takes his job at the end of the summer, then we'll know.  

I agree on many of your points, but Shakir is already way ahead of Stevenson in terms or his acumen as a receiver. But Stevenson definitely has the advantage of being in an NFL program for the offseason. But I think that is the battle to watch in terms of the roster construction. I think Kumerow does too many things specials wise and offers size that they don’t really have otherwise. Not that I think he is a lock. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

6 hours ago, 716er said:

 

If this is the case I don't see how Crowder makes the team unless he's playing special teams snaps or someone is injured in camp.

 

Diggs

Davis

McKenzie

Shakir

Crowder

Kumerow

Stevenson

 

Could see Crowder getting cut to bring in an outside guy.

 

5 hours ago, Buddo said:

Crowder is too good a player to get cut. He will beat out the rest for the slot position. Comfortably.

 

Kumerow is the guy in serious danger, imho, although it could be Stevenson.

 

Kumerow might be worth trying to convert into a TE, if he bulks up and blocks better.

 

I think Crowder stays only because you really don't yet know what you have in Shakir, will they use him at slot, outside, other.  There's also been talk about him dropping passes, do they want to risk that in critical situation?  Also not sure that Crowder isn't the starting slot guy and McKenzie is he backup, so would McKenzie be the one in danger.   The one saving grace for him might be he's the return guy.

 

Also think Stevenson would be the more likely cut as Kumerow is a big ST player.  He also seems to have developed more of a connection with Allen than Stevenson has.  Didn't I also read Shakir has return experience and also is very fast so if you have him as a backup return man plus McKenzie, do they need Stevenson?  If McKenzie gets hurt, for remainder of game use Shakir or Hyde, then sign some FA who has return experience till McKenzie is back if needed, or maybe Stevenson is on PS and gets called up.

 

As far as TE goes maybe Jaylen Wydermyer also goes to the PS as I kind of like Quintin Morris as the #3 TE as he's one of these Swiss army knife kind of guys.  When L Smith came into the game, the defense knew 98% of the time it's for blocking purposes.  When Morris comes in defense is less sure.  He's also a very good ST player.  Maybe Wydermyer spends the year on PS and in 2023 takes Howards spot.