Logic's 2022 Draft Review

[Solomon Grundy]

44 minutes ago, Logic said:

The fact that they got Khalil Shakir in the 5th REALLY boosted this draft for me

Getting Jalen Wydermeyer as a UDFA may be the steal of the weekend. Watching Khalil Shakir reminded me of Bobby Smokes

[muppy]

I think the Bills added some intriguing prospects that should help our club be better right now THIS Year. The 2 positions I feel the most strongly about is the #1 pick at CB and the PUNTER pick out of san diego state. I see both of them contributing BIG in 2022.

 

The writeup is as I would expect stellar. Ive been a fan of Logic and his written content for Years. GO BILLS!~~!~!!!

 

m

[hondo in seattle]

It's an interesting draft because I do agree that we picked up some kids that will be contributors quickly.

 

I think Elam will earn playing time quickly.

 

I think we'll see Cook in certain packages.

 

And I think we'll have a rookie punter.   

[freddyjj]

@Logic  great review.  

 

I think your idea of scheme versatility on D being improved with the secondary now being able to go press man with Elam and the Front 7 playing a 4-3 vs running teams like Carolina did with Luechly, Shaq Thompson and Thomas Davis. Tremaine, Milan and Bernard will have similar opportunities now.  

 

I would put forth that Cook and Shakir will do the same on Offense as each could line up as RB, Slot or WR.  Matchup mismatches galore.  These 2 will be playmakers and score often when inserted in game. Firepower increased with their addition. 

Edited May 1, 2022 by freddyjj

[SCBills]

I think the top five picks all make an impact this year.  
 

-Elam is a Day 1 starter. 
 

-Cook is going to likely be a tandem with Motor and a big weapon in the Offense

 

-Bernard likely plays specials and sub packages

 

-Shakir might be too good to keep off the field, but even if he’s stuck at depth, he could win the kick/punt return job

 

-Araiza likely wins the Punter job

 

-Tenuta & Spector are camp bodies, maybe PS

 

Weird draft.. seems like we were on our heels a bit with the way the board kept falling to us, but they handled it well and got five guys who likely make the 53, and a depth CB with a chance. 
 

Edited May 1, 2022 by SCBills

[Logic]

7 minutes ago, SCBills said:

I think the top five picks all make an impact this year.  
 

-Elam is a Day 1 starter. 
 

-Cook is going to likely be a tandem with Motor and a big weapon in the Offense

 

-Bernard likely plays specials and sub packages

 

-Shakir might be too good to keep off the field, but even if he’s stuck at depth, he’s likely our KR/PR 

 

-Araiza likely wins the Punter job

 

-Tenuta & Spector are camp bodies, maybe PS

 

Weird draft.. seems like we were on our heels a bit with the way the board keep falling to us, but they handled it well and got five guys who likely make the 53, and a depth CB with a chance. 
 

Well put. 
 

I DO think they were on their heels a bit and had some guys they liked scooped out from under them.

 

As you said, they responded pretty well. I agree that the top five will all contribute this year, and I don’t see any of them not being on the roster and contributing in 2024. If you get five rosterable contributors — including two-three starters (Elam and Araiza, Shakir as starting KR/PR) and some contributors, then it was a successful class.

 

Again, I can’t help but feel like they could’ve benefited from adding a couple developmental IOL, but in the sixth and seventh rounds, I’m not gonna complain too much.

Edited May 1, 2022 by Logic

[MasterStrategist]

2 hours ago, Logic said:

**Note: I'm nothing more than a fan, just like all of you. This is nothing more than my opinion. You know how the saying goes: Opinions are like buttholes: everyone's got one and most stink. I don't grade picks, because doing so before the prospects have played a single NFL down is foolish. Instead, I'm just going to discuss my feelings on each pick and my feelings on the class overall.**


CB Kaiir Elam - This was not the corner that I had pegged for the Bills in the first round. I thought for sure that his lack of tackling prowess and the perception by some scouts that he is "soft" would keep him off the Bills' draft board. Nevertheless, as I read about his top level athletic traits, speed, high character, work ethic, and coachability, the pick began to make a lot of sense. Tackling is something you can teach. Speed and size are not. In letting Levi Wallace walk and replacing him with Kaiir Elam, the Bills' coaches clearly wanted to upgrade the CB2 spot with a much better, faster athlete -- one that will allow them to diversify their defensive playcalling and to play more man coverage. While they prefer to play zone, the Bills wound up playing the 8th highest percentage of man coverage in the league last year. Now, when they do so, they won't be quite so vulnerable. Overall, this pick adds speed, versatility, and upside to the Bills' secondary, and the timeline of this selection lines up perfectly so that when Elam's ready for a second contract, Tre White will be just about exiting his prime.

HB James Cook -  When this pick was made, I felt it was a bit of a reach, value wise. It's clear to me, though, that the staff highly prioritized adding a true pass-catching threat to the backfield. I wrongly assumed that Duke Johnson sufficiently checked that box after they struck out on JD McKissic. Instead, they selected the toolsy and under-used James Cook. As I said elsewhere on this forum, one of the main ways the Bills intend to beat two-high coverage going forward is to use checkdowns and dumpoffs. Cook can take those three yard passes and turn them into 12 yard gains. He can also split out not only into the slot, but out wide as well, and can legitimately run routes and beat corners. He has great ball tracking skills, great hands, and doesn't fumble. He'll be a versatile, movable chess piece for Ken Dorsey, and adds instant explosiveness and homerun ability that the Bills offense previously lacked. While I question the value of the pick, I think he'll be a valuable and dangerous contributor from day one.

LB Terrel Bernard - Once again, I feel this was a bit of a reach, value wise. The Bills didn't have a 4th round pick, though, and I think they just didn't want to miss out on this player. Sean McDermott is very close with Baylor head coach Dave Aranda, and I'm guessing Bernard -- who was said to be the heart and soul of the Baylor defense --  got a more than glowing review of Bernard from his college coach. Onthe surface, this one's simple: Fills the role vacated by AJ Klein in being the third linebacker when the Bills are in 4-3, and will play special teams. A closer look reveals a little bit more intrigue, though: I believe that Bernard's addition will allow the Bills to play 4-3 more often if they so choose, without losing much against the passing game. Last year, when the Bills were in their base nickel, good running teams ran it down their throats. When they switched to 4-3, they became vulnerable against the play-action and mid-level passing game. Now, when they face such teams, they can operate out of the 4-3 in an attempt to stop the run, but Bernard stands a much better chance of matching up with tight ends and speedy running backs than Klein did. Furthermore, if the Bills decide to invest in Tremaine Edmunds, they may decide that they don't want so much money tied up at the linebacker position, and in 2024, they could release Matt Milano, who would then be 30 years old, and whose release would save the Bills $7.5M. A pick with an immediate ST and sub-package role, but who may be a starter down the line.
 
WR Khalil Shakir - I fist pumped when this pick was made. I watched a lot of highlights and cut-ups of this guy and quite liked what I saw. He offers immediate punt and kick return ability, which will make him active on gamedays as a rookie. From there, he can initially start off as a WR5 and gadget player. He can work from the slot, from the backfield, and can be a jet-sweep option. Over time, as he refines his route running and adds strength, he's a candidate to become the Bills' long term starting slot receiver. Jamison Crowder is only on a one year deal, after all. The comparisons I've seen for Shakir include Diontae Johnson, Christian Kirk, Stefon Diggs, and Michael Gallup. The value I feel the Bills got by adding Shakir in round five makes up a bit for the value I feel they DIDN'T get by drafting Cook and Bernard when they did.

P Matt Araiza - What can I say? I laughed out loud when this pick was made. The amount of hype around a freaking PUNTER this offseason was absurd. The amount of excitement that the Bills fan base has for drafting a punter to a team that never punts is also hilarious. Call it leftover Brian Moorman love, or maybe we just loved the thought of having the strongest armed QB, strongest legged kicker, and strongest legged punter all on the same team. Whatever the case may be, this was a fun pick. As for the player: a left footed guy who can kick it really far but doesn't have great hang time and has no experience holding....sounds a lot like Corey Bajorquez to me. If he can add some hang time and hold capably, he'll win the job. Matt vs Matt #puntapalooza, here we come.

CB Christian Benford - I won't pretend I had ever heard of this player. From what I'm reading about him, he's big, strong, mean, physical, and had great ball production at Villanova. You can never have too many corners, and McDermott and Frazier have shown a propensity for turning late round and UDFA corners with chips on their shoulders into legitimate starting caliber players. Not sure if he'll make the 53, might be a practice squad candidate. Might be a steal, might be a nobody. I'll always trust our coaches when it comes to DBs, though, so I'd bet on the former rather than the latter.

OT Luke Tenuta -  I'll be honest: I don't get this one. I know that it's always good to add O-line depth, but the deck seems highly stacked against this guy ever becoming a good NFL player. It sounds like he has an awkward build, short arms, and bad functional athleticism. His redeeming quality seems to be...that he's huge, I guess? I don't see it. They'll develop him on the practice squad for two seasons, I suppose. I would have much preferred an interior OL here, someone who at least has a chance to make the roster. They can't all be winners...

LB Baylon Spector - Again, I won't pretend that I know much about this player. I think his primary avenue to making the roster would be to play special teams so capably that he allows the Bills to cut Taylor Matakevitch for cap savings. With Bernard, Spector, Andre Smith, Tyrel Dodson, Joe Giles-Harris, and Tyler Matakevitch, the backup linebacking corps is now pretty full. Will be a good competition in camp. 


Overall:

The Bills' biggest need coming into this draft was a couple of capable outside corners. They added a first round prospect with legitimate Pro Bowl upside, and they added a late round prospect who looks set to follow the Bills' recent trend of late round corner contributors, like Levi Wallace and Dane Jackson. 

The Bills' second biggest need, generally speaking, was to add speed and schematic versatility on both sides of the ball.

They accomplished this goal on defense in two ways. First, by adding Kaiir Elam to the secondary. They will be faster and more capable in man coverage, and can call a more diverse defensive game. Second, By adding Terrel Bernard at linebacker, they can choose to go 4-3 more than they have in the past, without losing nearly as much in the passing game as they did when they inserted AJ Klein into the game. Bernard can also be a sub-package weapon as a blitzer and matchup piece in the passing game.

They accomplished this goal on offense by adding James Cook at HB and Khalil Shakir at WR. Both players played in the backfield, in the slot, and out wide in college. Both can capably fill multiple roles on offense. Cook adds speed and explosiveness to the running back room that it has lacked for years. He will also allow the Bills to come out in 12 personnel, but still spread the field, thus creating a nightmare for opposing defenses. Think Diggs, Davis, Knox, Howard, and Cook -- this screams "running play" to the defense, so it comes out in base defense. Then the Bills line up in an empty set and linebackers are forced to cover Knox, Howard, and Cook. This is the future of the Bills offense. This is the type of unpredictability and versatility that we can expect in 2022. Shakir adds yet another gadget option, and profiles as a long term starting slot receiver. Both players add speed, both players add versatility.

Lastly, even the Bills special teams got a significant boost in this draft via the acquisitions of punter Matt Araiza, linebackers Terrel Bernard and Baylon Spector, corner/gunner Christian Benford, and returner Khalil Shakir. 

I question the value of the Cook and Bernard picks. The value of the Shakir pick makes up for it to some degree. All in all, my only real regret is that they didn't add any legitimate interior offensive line prospects. You can't address every need in one draft, and perhaps Beane will sign another interior o-linemen or two. Still, I'd like to see them start taking swings at that position in the future. You can't just avoid drafting guards forever. That said, I feel they capably addressed the biggest roster holes on the team, made the offense and defense faster and more versatile, and generally improved the Bills' roster going into 2022.


Best Draft Classes: Jets, Ravens, Chiefs. All three of these teams got a LOT better, and I hated it.

Thanks for the great analysis and write up!  Agree with alot of your thoughts.

 

My review:  

 

1. We had 1 pressing need entering the draft, and we took care of that Round 1.

 

2. If there were two "traits" that I thought we needed to address in the offseason, they were team speed and physicality in the trenches. Physicality was addressed via FA, and we GREATLY improved team speed on both sides of the ball through the draft. 

 

I'm always optimistic that we nailed the draft, and it likely be a few years before we know for sure which team "won" the draft.  But I'm confident our first two picks will bring immediate value.

[947]

Crowder is gonna be like Beasley's first 2 years in Buffalo, he'll be great this year. I really like Shakir, but his value will be felt in 23' & beyond.

[boater]

2 hours ago, Fred Slacks said:

Hopefully Shakir is good enough to allow us to cut Crowder.

Boil it down to brass tacks: he's saying this years fifth rounder beats a very-veteran fourth rounder. That's a tall order.

[mannc]

Elam better start…

[boater]

1 minute ago, mannc said:

Elam better start…

He's starting out of necessity.  Let's hope he's a baller and can contribute as a rookie.

[Shaw66]

Logic -

 

Thanks for the review.  It's great!  Insightful.  Gives a good picture of what the Bills have done and implications for the future.  Really good. 

 

You comment about the value of the picks, whether Bernard was worth where he was taken, etc.  I'm not sure that really matters.  First, Beane kind of has to go where the draft takes him.   So, yes, it sure seems like the Bills wanted to add speed and versatility to the offense and defense, but because that seems to have been how the Bills viewed "value," there isn't any way to expect all the right players to fall to them at exactly the right times.   That is, since what was "valuable" to them wasn't always there, they were trading up, trading down, and taking some guys a bit higher than they should have.  That is, he may have "wasted" resources a bit.  Given how he viewed "value," however, he didn't have much choice.  And he seems to have gotten an excellent overall result. 

 

I haven't read any comments here yet; I'd be curious to know what Beane's critics would think of as better choices.   I know, don't burn the fourth round pick to trade up, but that doesn't mean much.  We don't know what would have happened had they stayed at 25, and who would have been a better pick?   Who did the Bills miss without the fourth round pick?  Beane got some real value back in the trade downs.   The analysis could go on forever, and I'm sure some people could come up other plausible combinations of picks.   That may be true, but what Beane did, although messy, looks pretty good.

 

One other observation:  We're all used to having someplace between the fifth and fifteenth spot in every round.  Year after year that's what we were talking about.   We got used to having drafts with high first rounders and high second rounders.   When you win 12 games in the season, you find that picking at the bottom of those rounds is much different.   It's easy to be disappointed with Beane's draft, because he kept missing out on the big names, but Beane's job is different when his placement in the draft doesn't allow to get those big names.  His job is more difficult now.   It looks like he did a solid job, but his margin for error is narrower now.  It's easier to have a bad year when you're picking 25th.  I don't think he did, but time will tell. 

 

I think all that matters is does Beane get an A, a B, or a C.   Three or four years from now is the time to give the real grade.   For now, I'd call it a solid B, maybe B+, with some real downside but maybe better upside.  That is, the offensive help we expect might not materialize, and corner may continue to be a weakness.   But if the Bills come out of this with four new contributors in 2022, two on offense and two  on defense (and I see that as a real possibility), then it's solid A.  

[BullBuchanan]

Agree with everything but the hate on the punter. Sure, it's not the most pressing need in the world, but it is still a position of need. You just potentially got a day 1 starter who can put you in a position to win a game with a single great play. Especially considering he's cheaper, it's a win-win. There probably weren't a lot of guys in that spot that are day 1 starters.

Edited May 1, 2022 by BullBuchanan

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, Fred Slacks said:

Not sure how to merge topics.

 

I can take care of that little thing for you.  Basically ya need a mod.

[DCbillsfan]

Nice writeup.  I was thinking the same thing regarding 4-3 defense.  Bernard should help out.

[Shaw66]

And I wanted to add something on a slightly different subject.

 

This draft is, I think, an encouraging early sign that we're going to like Dorsey at OC.  I think the vision of the offense Logic describes and that can be seen in the draft must be Dorsey's vision.  Beane delivered what Dorsey and McDermott asked for.  Do I know this for sure?  Oc course not, but it's certainly the case that Beane and McDermott are listening to their OC when he says what he needs, and Beane views his job as getting the players the coaches need.  

 

I never thought Daboll was creative on offense.   Sure, he always had a new gadget - he was creative that way.  But I didn't think he was creative in terms of coming at a defense with a constant variety of strategies.  This vision of quick, versatile players that can attack in multiple ways - they all can run deep, several run the jet sweeps, several can line up either in the backfield or wide, is more complex and more difficult to defend.   Maybe Daboll just was limited by the players he had, but it didn't seem to me like he was good at developing multiple attacks.  This seems like Dorsey is saying "give me more speed and versatility at the skill positions, and I'll give you an offense that can be breathtaking."  

 

Of course, it's one thing to have the vision; it's another to deliver it.  

[LEBills]

To be honest, it was a bit of an underwhelming draft for me. The success of the draft will all fall on Elam’s shoulders. If he becomes the next Tre, it will be a success. He has the tools to get there.

 

However, I feel like we did not do much to help the offense with only 2 of our 8 picks being playmakers for Josh. As much as we as a fan base like to say how deep our team is, we are quickly getting thin at a few important positions.

 

At WR, Steph and Gabe are the only players really built to run on the outside. Crowder, McKenzie, Hodgins, Stephenson and even Shakir (who I think will be a great WR for us) are built best for the slot. Kumerow can play outside but definitely not ideal. 
 

We are supposedly going to be running a lot of 2TE sets with Dorsey. Yet we have Knox who we hopefully resign, OJ Howard who is a 1 year rental and has not been good lately, and Tommy Sweeney who was not good and whose contract ends after this season. We have Quinton Morris and now Wydermyer as UDFAs but would have been nice to draft someone more talented if we plan on lots of 12 personnel going into the future.

 

As a Bills fan, I will be hoping and praying that all of our picks become studs. But I feel like we can do a lot more in the future to make sure our most important player - Josh - is protected and given enough playmakers to maximize his otherworldly talent. 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, LeGOATski said:

This talk about Crowder getting cut seems crazy to me. He's a good player. If he gets cut, that means they struck gold with their 5th rounder, which would be awesome, but very slim chance. Don't know why anyone would get their hopes up for that.

I think Logic had the better take.  Crowder has the slot this season, with Shakir getting increasing snaps as the season progresses.  Crowder is one season and done, if it works.

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

5 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

And I wanted to add something on a slightly different subject.

 

This draft is, I think, an encouraging early sign that we're going to like Dorsey at OC.  I think the vision of the offense Logic describes and that can be seen in the draft must be Dorsey's vision.  Beane delivered what Dorsey and McDermott asked for.  Do I know this for sure?  Oc course not, but it's certainly the case that Beane and McDermott are listening to their OC when he says what he needs, and Beane views his job as getting the players the coaches need.  

 

I never thought Daboll was creative on offense.   Sure, he always had a new gadget - he was creative that way.  But I didn't think he was creative in terms of coming at a defense with a constant variety of strategies.  This vision of quick, versatile players that can attack in multiple ways - they all can run deep, several run the jet sweeps, several can line up either in the backfield or wide, is more complex and more difficult to defend.   Maybe Daboll just was limited by the players he had, but it didn't seem to me like he was good at developing multiple attacks.  This seems like Dorsey is saying "give me more speed and versatility at the skill positions, and I'll give you an offense that can be breathtaking."  

 

Of course, it's one thing to have the vision; it's another to deliver it.  

I hear you on Daboll not being creative, I don't think we ever utilized RB screen passes, hardly ran any bubble screens to WR... I'd like to see McKenzie, Singletary utilized more in this offense.

[Ya Digg?]

Loved the write up, great job! Where I actually disagree with you is on who you feel for better. It was almost literally impossible for the Jets not to get better, but still not too worried about them yet. I don’t believe the Chiefs and Ravens got much better because of the draft. I think many on here think the Chiefs did well because they got a couple of names that were mentioned here for a while. The Ravens still have no wide receivers to throw to. You can only throw it to Andrews so many times and Lamar could get injured again. They probably won’t have as many injuries this coming season as last so they will most likely have a better record, but I don’t think it will be because of an undersized (but good) center or bigger DT from UConn