End of QBs being overdrafted?

[SoTier]

One draft doesn't make a trend but only 1 QB was taken in the first round in 2022, and that at 20th, and none were taken in the second round.  That's the first time that's happened since 2000.   One of the big arguments for the rookie salary scale was that first rounders, especially QBs taken high in the first round, were getting astronomical salaries before they took a snap.   One of the results of the rookie salary scale was that it set salary ranges for rookies by draft position.  It made taking a QB high in the first round relatively "cheap", especially when teams could get an extra year at a reasonable price by exercising the fifth year option.  This led to what appeared to be QBs being "overdrafted", ie teams in need of starting QBs taking QBs that maybe they didn't really love or weren't really first rounders just to make sure they got one. 

 

Is this really the beginning of the end of QBs being "overdrafted" or is it just a fluke?

 

For a decade or so, it seemed to work really well.  It became fairly common for 3 or more QBs to be taken in the first round.  Between 2011, the first year of the rookie salary scale, and 2020, the last draft that teams have to decide whether to exercise their fifth year options on their first rounders, there were 28 QBs taken in the first round.  Only 6 of those QBs became bonafide franchise QBs, at least for several years: Newton (2011), Luck (2012), Mahomes (2017), Watson (2017), Allen (2018), and Jackson (2018) which is only about 21% success rate.  Another 6 -- Tannehill, Winston, Goff, Wentz, Mayfield, and Murray -- have been at least decent starting NFL QBs but certainly not nearly as good as the first six.  I believe that all of the teams that drafted these 12 QBs exercised their fifth year options on them.

 

Deciding to exercise the fifth year option on a first round QB is easy when a young QB shows to be a stud early on but with some that don’t continue to develop or regresses, the decision to exercise the fifth year option is a lot harder.  Moreover, it can be a very expensive mistake as Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold from the 2018 draft demonstrate.

Meanwhile, between 2011 and 2019, other NFL teams drafted QBs after the first round and also found bonafide franchise QBs or decent starting NFL QBs.  Russell Wilson (2012 3rd round) and Dak Prescott (2016 4th round) are bonafide franchise QBs.  Kirk Cousins (2012 4th round) might also be one, too.  Andy Dalton (2011 2nd rounder), Derek Carr  and Jimmy Garoppolo (both 2014 2nd rounders) have all been decent NFL starters, and probably better QBs than at least some of the second group of first rounders.   In fact, between 2011 and 2016, the third and fourth rounds produced as many franchise QBs as the first rounds, and Wilson has had a significantly better career than either Newton or Luck, and Prescott also appears likely to have a better career too.

 

These results and the astronomical rise in QB salaries may have made at least some NFL teams reconsider “overdrafting” QBs since they’ve become quite expensive, and are only “bargains” if they actually develop into top tier franchise QBs, which only about 1 in 5 QBs drafted high actually do.  The #1 pick in the 2022 draft will probably get a first contract of about $41 million dollars, much of it guaranteed.  Pick #33, the first in the second round, will cost slightly under $10 million without most of it guaranteed.  QBs taken in the third round will generally make less than $1 million a year.

 

Edited April 30, 2022 by SoTier

[thenorthremembers]

Had everything to do with the Quarterback class.   The guys were small, underproduced in college and had weak arms.   Teams will overdraft for production or tools, some of these guys had neither.

[deadbeef]

This is a fluke, weak QB year.  The number of teams looking for a QB is not decreasing.

QB is the most important position and it seems like only 1-2 per draft turn into solid starters.  And most drafts don’t produce a pro bowl caliber one.

[RobbRiddick]

If Buddy Nix was still a GM there would have been 2 taken

[Rc2catch]

There’s been a pretty crazy run on quarterbacks the last few years. 
And definitely not as many teams actually needing one this year. Pair that with what’s considered a weak class and next year you could have a crazy explosion of quarterbacks drafted. Lot of people are on their last chances or super close to never starting again. You could have ten teams next year looking to need a franchise quarterback. 

[somnus00]

I just want to say thank you for not wording the first sentence, "One draft does not a trend make." Can't stand when people use that phrasing.

[MAJBobby]

This was a very weak QB draft. 
 

actually it really wasn’t a good draft for a lot of position groups to be honest. 

[Rochesterfan]

1 hour ago, SoTier said:

One draft doesn't make a trend but only 1 QB was taken in the first round in 2022, and that at 20th, and none were taken in the second round.  That's the first time that's happened since 2000.   One of the big arguments for the rookie salary scale was that first rounders, especially QBs taken high in the first round, were getting astronomical salaries before they took a snap.   One of the results of the rookie salary scale was that it set salary ranges for rookies by draft position.  It made taking a QB high in the first round relatively "cheap", especially when teams could get an extra year at a reasonable price by exercising the fifth year option.  This led to what appeared to be QBs being "overdrafted", ie teams in need of starting QBs taking QBs that maybe they didn't really love or weren't really first rounders just to make sure they got one. 

 

Is this really the beginning of the end of QBs being "overdrafted" or is it just a fluke?

 

For a decade or so, it seemed to work really well.  It became fairly common for 3 or more QBs to be taken in the first round.  Between 2011, the first year of the rookie salary scale, and 2020, the last draft that teams have to decide whether to exercise their fifth year options on their first rounders, there were 28 QBs taken in the first round.  Only 6 of those QBs became bonafide franchise QBs, at least for several years: Newton (2011), Luck (2012), Mahomes (2017), Watson (2017), Allen (2018), and Jackson (2018) which is only about 21% success rate.  Another 6 -- Tannehill, Winston, Goff, Wentz, Mayfield, and Murray -- have been at least decent starting NFL QBs but certainly not nearly as good as the first six.  I believe that all of the teams that drafted these 12 QBs exercised their fifth year options on them.

 

Deciding to exercise the fifth year option on a first round QB is easy when a young QB shows to be a stud early on but with some that don’t continue to develop or regresses, the decision to exercise the fifth year option is a lot harder.  Moreover, it can be a very expensive mistake as Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold from the 2018 draft demonstrate.

Meanwhile, between 2011 and 2019, other NFL teams drafted QBs after the first round and also found bonafide franchise QBs or decent starting NFL QBs.  Russell Wilson (2012 3rd round) and Dak Prescott (2016 4th round) are bonafide franchise QBs.  Kirk Cousins (2012 4th round) might also be one, too.  Andy Dalton (2011 2nd rounder), Derek Carr  and Jimmy Garoppolo (both 2014 2nd rounders) have all been decent NFL starters, and probably better QBs than at least some of the second group of first rounders.   In fact, between 2011 and 2016, the third and fourth rounds produced as many franchise QBs as the first rounds, and Wilson has had a significantly better career than either Newton or Luck, and Prescott also appears likely to have a better career too.

 

These results and the astronomical rise in QB salaries may have made at least some NFL teams reconsider “overdrafting” QBs since they’ve become quite expensive, and are only “bargains” if they actually develop into top tier franchise QBs, which only about 1 in 5 QBs drafted high actually do.  The #1 pick in the 2022 draft will probably get a first contract of about $41 million dollars, much of it guaranteed.  Pick #33, the first in the second round, will cost slightly under $10 million without most of it guaranteed.  QBs taken in the third round will generally make less than $1 million a year.

 

 

Pretty sure it had to do with the terrible QB class, the availability of multiple prove QBs - Mayfield and Garoppolo, and the recent movement of veteran QBs.

 

Teams were already looking to acquire capital for next year to move up and get QBs.

 

 

[LeGOATski]

Nope. Just a poor year. Like you said in your post, it happened in 2000, too.

[MJS]

No. It's just a weak class. Everybody has been saying this for awhile.

[Kmart128]

And start of WRs being overdrafted...

[mannc]

1 hour ago, MAJBobby said:

This was a very weak QB draft. 
 

actually it really wasn’t a good draft for a lot of position groups to be honest. 

People love to badmouth draft classes for some reason.  It’s true, this was a bad QB draft, but what other position groups were weak?  D Tackle, maybe, and that’s about it. Otherwise, it seems to me it was a very solid class, with a lot of depth. 

[MAJBobby]

2 minutes ago, mannc said:

People love to badmouth draft classes for some reason.  It’s true, this was a bad QB draft, but what other position groups were weak?  D Tackle, maybe, and that’s about it. Otherwise, it seems to me it was a very solid class, with a lot of depth. 

QB was a bad class 

DE was pretty thin outside of round 2

DT was weak 

TE was a thin draft 

OT was hollow. A lot of Top end and then late

 

IOL was really deep

TE was deep

WR really deep

CB was pretty deep

 

[mannc]

11 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

QB was a bad class 

DE was pretty thin outside of round 2

DT was weak 

TE was a thin draft 

OT was hollow. A lot of Top end and then late

 

IOL was really deep

TE was deep

WR really deep

CB was pretty deep

 

CB and WR are the two most significant position groups…teams generally have three of each on the field…both groups were very strong.  I would say it was a good edge class and also a good OT class.  Also a great safety class. RB was good.  And DT wasn’t even bad…it’s just a devalued position.

[without a drought]

1 hour ago, somnus00 said:

I just want to say thank you for not wording the first sentence, "One draft does not a trend make." Can't stand when people use that phrasing.

Knock it off. You just had to go ahead and use it anyways.

 

I can't stand it when people use that phrase.

[Bill from NYC]

1 hour ago, MAJBobby said:

This was a very weak QB draft. 
 

actually it really wasn’t a good draft for a lot of position groups to be honest. 

I fully agree. This was the worst draft I have seen in a very long time.

 

I know that most of this board thinks that Mac Jones sucks, but he would have deserved consideration to have been selected at #1 in this weak draft.

[Saxum]

7 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

I fully agree. This was the worst draft I have seen in a very long time.

 

I know that most of this board thinks that Mac Jones sucks, but he would have deserved consideration to have been selected at #1 in this weak draft.

 

A number of players choose to come out early last year which caused talent level this year to go down.

[FireChans]

4 hours ago, SoTier said:

One draft doesn't make a trend

 

4 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

Is this really the beginning of the end of QBs being "overdrafted" or is it just a fluke?

 

4 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

These results and the astronomical rise in QB salaries may have made at least some NFL teams reconsider “overdrafting” QBs since they’ve become quite expensive, and are only “bargains” if they actually develop into top tier franchise QBs, which only about 1 in 5 QBs drafted high actually do

lmao no. How do Bills fans continue fail to understand the value of the most important position in sports after the last 20 years.

 

Is there something in the water on Grand Island?

[Thurman#1]

My guess is it's a fluke.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

I dont think so. This was the weakest QB class in decades.