Rd 6, Pick 180 (1): Punter Matt Araiza, San Diego State

[Augie]

1 hour ago, BearNorth said:

San Diego weather from Labor Day on is a LOT different than Buffalo weather.

 

All his games last year were in relatively warm air and a couple of them at altitude [Air Force, Arizona] where we know the ball goes farther.

 

His home games were played at 50 feet above sea level, but again in warm weather.

 

Wonder how he'll do in conditions similar to the first 2021 NE game at the OP, freezing with gusts off the lake.

 

 

 

 

With the wind in WNY at some of our games, it feels like a mini-miracle if they can even make contact with the ball to punt it. The drop from hand to foot is not very far, unless you are doing it with 35 mph gusts. That will take some getting used to! 

 

 

 

.

Edited May 3, 2022 by Augie

[Saxum]

6 hours ago, Conlan58 said:

Man... the days of Moorman really had a lasting effect on us TSW Bills Fans... 27 pages for a 6th round punter and only 28 pages for our 2nd round RB selection. Can't wait til the first time Araiza lays someone out in punt coverage - this place is going to implode. 

 

Well Moorman was an All-Pro who also tackled when needed (8 solo tackles registered not counting those not due to penalties),  kickoffs when needed, ran for downs and threw for 1st downs and TDs.

 

I do hope he gets to lay someone out at home on punt coverage and gets to Basque [sic] in the glory.

Edited May 3, 2022 by Limeaid

[Cash]

1 hour ago, The Dean said:

 

 

On point, #2, yes, the Bills are PROBABLY going for it, depending on down, distance, score and other possible variables.  4th and 25, after a couple penalties?  Dunno about you, but I'm punting.  And obviously you want a punter that can place the ball inside the 10 or 15, at least.  I know that is an extreme example, but there are situations where punting at midfield makes sense, no matter how much confidence you have in your offense. And I think Araiza will be fine, as he begins to work on that. 

 

So I agree this probably won't change McDermott's strategy much, but I also don't think having a punter that excels in placing it in the "coffin corner" would impact the decision making much, either. 

 

Agreed - this is a marginal difference to be sure.  I'm just thinking like a 4th down with something like 4 to 10 yards to go.  If we had Jordan Stout, maybe McD thinks we can pin them inside the 5 and goes conservative.

 

One additional thought:  I know some of the HATERZ have criticized Araiza's kicks for being too much the line drive variety.  That's probably a legitimate criticism.  But on the plus side, a line drive typically cuts through the wind better than a moonshot.  And we all know what a challenge the wind in Orchard Park can be.  Haack in particular seemed to really struggle.  Seems like there were at least half a dozen punts last year that looked good off his foot, but then just hung up in the air and went nowhere.

[The Dean]

10 minutes ago, Cash said:

 

Agreed - this is a marginal difference to be sure.  I'm just thtypicallyinking like a 4th down with something like 4 to 10 yards to go.  If we had Jordan Stout, maybe McD thinks we can pin them inside the 5 and goes conservative.

 

One additional thought:  I know some of the HATERZ have criticized Araiza's kicks for being too much the line drive variety.  That's probably a legitimate criticism.  But on the plus side, a line drive typically cuts through the wind better than a moonshot.  And we all know what a challenge the wind in Orchard Park can be.  Haack in particular seemed to really struggle.  Seems like there were at least half a dozen punts last year that looked good off his foot, but then just hung up in the air and went nowhere.

 

Excellent point. Agreed

[Mr. WEO]

how did he drop to the 3rd P picked?

[unbillievable]

15 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

how did he drop to the 3rd P picked?

The same reason Josh Allen was the 3rd QB picked: A lot of upside but still learning the position.

[Mr. WEO]

17 minutes ago, unbillievable said:

The same reason Josh Allen was the 3rd QB picked: A lot of upside but still learning the position.

 

 

Leaving aside the obvious point that learning to QB a team in the NFL is a bit different than.....punting (and the fact that the Bills traded UP 5 spots to take Josh at 7),  the kid was widely mocked as the 1st or second P to go.  He had the best Punting season in college football history, won the Ray Guy award and was a unanimous 1st Team All American.  Seems like he figured out the punting game pretty quickly.   

Edited May 3, 2022 by Mr. WEO

[HappyDays]

Skimming through the last pages of the thread, it's crazy how concerned people are about Araiza learning to hold for FGs. I don't remember holding ever being a talking point until Corey Bojorquez came onto the scene. It isn't a difficult skill, Bojorquez just happened to be so inexplicably bad at it that it became an area of concern for Bills fans.

 

If there's anything Araiza really needs to work on it's hang time and control. Any random college athlete can learn to be a holder. Except Corey Bojorquez for some reason.

[unbillievable]

6 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

Leaving aside the obvious point that learning to QB a team in the NFL is a bit different than.....punting (and the fact that the Bills traded UP 5 spots to take Josh at 7),  the kid was widely mocked as the 1st or second P to go.  He had the best Punting season in college football history, won the Ray Guy award and was a unanimous 1st Team All American.  Seems like he figured out the punting game pretty quickly.   

 

Apparently, learning how to hold a FG is as difficult as figuring out how to read a defense. 

[unbillievable]

I'm going to say it now: If they tell the kid to kick it into the bleachers every time, I won't care if he ever gets one inside the 20.

Bonus points if he can doink it off Dallas' scoreboard.

 

 

 

[freddyjj]

On 4/30/2022 at 7:47 PM, MAJBobby said:

Why?  BU QBs hold all the time. 

if it pleases the court, may I present exhibit one

 

 

[Doc]

13 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

Leaving aside the obvious point that learning to QB a team in the NFL is a bit different than.....punting (and the fact that the Bills traded UP 5 spots to take Josh at 7),  the kid was widely mocked as the 1st or second P to go.  He had the best Punting season in college football history, won the Ray Guy award and was a unanimous 1st Team All American.  Seems like he figured out the punting game pretty quickly.   

 

As long as he become a good punter, who cares?  And they didn't have to spend a 4th rounder on him.

[BearNorth]

4 hours ago, unbillievable said:

I'm going to say it now: If they tell the kid to kick it into the bleachers every time, I won't care if he ever gets one inside the 20.

Bonus points if he can doink it off Dallas' scoreboard.

 

 

 

Along this train of thought, what do the analytics say about expected points added from scoring drives starting at the 20, vs. inside the 20? Wondering how big the difference is, including the defensive points that result from pinning a team.

[GolfandBills]

14 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

how did he drop to the 3rd P picked?

Because the media hyped him up to be something he wasn’t and people soak up whatever they are told 

[BearNorth]

Just found this article.  Pretty interesting stuff, also explains why Stout went well ahead of Araiza.  Also answers some of my question about analytics and punting.

 

https://phillycovercorner.com/2022/03/whats-the-value-of-a-good-punt-and-some-more-jordan-stout/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=whats-the-value-of-a-good-punt-and-some-more-jordan-stout

 

Stout rarely has touchbacks, nearly twice as good as the average NFL punter.

 

[Mr. WEO]

39 minutes ago, GolfandBills said:

Because the media hyped him up to be something he wasn’t and people soak up whatever they are told 

 

He WAS the Ray Guy Award winner.  He WAS a unanimous 1st Team All American.

 

Not sure what you are getting at there....

[JESSEFEFFER]

2 hours ago, GolfandBills said:

Because the media hyped him up to be something he wasn’t and people soak up whatever they are told 

I would say that this is somewhat true.  He is a punter with one year of experience at the collegiate level and he lacks all the nuances to punting at the professional level.  But let's not pretend that it needs to be that big of a challenge.  He isn't as skilled as he needs to be but I would not think it will be that difficult to make big improvements before and during his rookie season.  He is going to get the coaching and time to do it like never before.   It's almost the same "pro ready" vs. "high ceiling" discussion we went through with Josh over the last 4 years.

[LEBills]

6 hours ago, BearNorth said:

Just found this article.  Pretty interesting stuff, also explains why Stout went well ahead of Araiza.  Also answers some of my question about analytics and punting.

 

https://phillycovercorner.com/2022/03/whats-the-value-of-a-good-punt-and-some-more-jordan-stout/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=whats-the-value-of-a-good-punt-and-some-more-jordan-stout

 

Stout rarely has touchbacks, nearly twice as good as the average NFL punter.

 

I think what I learned from that article is we should try to get Drew Hartlaub (PSU #37) who just signed as a UDFA with the Panthers. Dude saved three of Stout’s punts from going into the end zone in those handful of examples

[John from Riverside]

9 hours ago, GolfandBills said:

Because the media hyped him up to be something he wasn’t and people soak up whatever they are told 

Interesting....the guy was mocked like in 4th round for months on mulitiple mocks then all of a sudde "he isnt something"

 

Oh well.....it worked out for us

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

On 5/3/2022 at 11:24 AM, Conlan58 said:

Man... the days of Moorman really had a lasting effect on us TSW Bills Fans... 27 pages for a 6th round punter and only 28 pages for our 2nd round RB selection. Can't wait til the first time Araiza lays someone out in punt coverage - this place is going to implode. 

Just get EZ seats. Matt may be kicking balls into the stands. 
 

Net is only up for FG’s if I’m not mistaken