2022 NFL Draft - Day 2 Debrief

[Yantha]

2 hours ago, RangerDave said:

Thanks again, Gunner!  My wife, who is a casual football fan at best, had an interesting question on the draft.  I've read that of all the first round picks historically, less than 50% of QBs pan out and that only 60% overall pan out.  Now defining "panning out" can be argued, but her question is this:

 

       Are there certain positions historically that "pan out" better than the others?  For the sake of argument, we can either define "panning out" as becoming a good starter (which is hard to define in itself) or we can define it as making the pro bowl (which is often a farce, but at least provides an empirical stat to use).

 

Are there statistics on this, or do you have a gut feeling based on your vast knowledge and experience?

 

Thanks!

If I had to hazard a guess, I think that Guards pan out more often than other positions.

[LEBills]

Just now, ScottLaw said:

Knew it wasn’t a priority all the way back to the combine when McD basically said you can develop late round WRs and don’t need to take the in the higher rounds…. So long as his defense is stacked.

Yea Beane is the GM but by McD’s own admission, McD is VERY involved in the draft. So who he wants he gets.

[Process]

Just now, LEBills said:

Yea Beane is the GM but by McD’s own admission, McD is VERY involved in the draft. So who he wants he gets.

Boogie and Bernard stink of McDermott

[Cash]

51 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Maybe they are higher on Stevenson or Hodgins than we think, because Kumerow can’t be the answer if we lose Diggs or Davis for any period of time.  

 

 

Yeah, the two wildcards that none of us have any clue about are Stevenson and Hodgins. Hodgins has played so little, he plausibly might be one of the first cuts in training camp, or easily could wind up the top backup outside. I loved Stevenson coming out of the draft last year, and thought he showed a lot of promise. Some dumb rookie mistakes to be sure, but those are learning opportunities. He could e primed for a big jump this year. Or not! Without insider access, we have no way of predicting. 
 

Bottom line for me is that the FO has earned my trust. That doesn’t mean they’re perfect, and maybe they’re making a big mistake by not prioritizing WR depth higher. Time will tell, but I’m choosing not to worry about it untill I have to. 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, LEBills said:

Yea Beane is the GM but by McD’s own admission, McD is VERY involved in the draft. So who he wants he gets.

 

This is Sean McDermott's franchise. I say it often. He is the one with the ultimate decision making power. He empowers Beane and trusts him but if he wanted to veto anything he has that ability.

[LabattBlue]

4 minutes ago, Process said:

Boogie and Bernard stink of McDermott

I said last night that the Bernard pick seems like McD had a LOT of say about it. 

[cle23]

36 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

This is Sean McDermott's franchise. I say it often. He is the one with the ultimate decision making power. He empowers Beane and trusts him but if he wanted to veto anything he has that ability.

 

This is an honest question. Does he have that power? Because roster decision making is written into contracts. 

[Cash]

37 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

 

I've never been more disappointed by the Bills draft pick. To me it just doesn't make any sense. There are 3 reasons for it:

 

1. General consensus. I hate when GMs try to outsmart everybody. Guy wasn't in top 100 in any board I've seen except PFN - that is the only reason I knew about him. Now I know that media personalities and various sport sites are not NFL scouts, but still - those are also guys who do this for a living in some capacity. You just can't be smarter than everybody. That is why Cole Strange is a bad pick no matter what, and why Terrel Bernard is a bad pick no matter what. Yes, he was a bad pick even if he pans out better than expected. It is like in poker - even bad decision can (and often does) result in a huge win. But to win longterm, you need to make good decisions. Reaching because you see something what nobody else does is not a way how to build a roster. Reaching for a non-premium position even more so.

 

2. Resource allocation. 1st round CB is a great resource allocation. 2nd round RB not so much, especially if it is 3rd RB picked in the first 3 rounds in 4 years. But OK, I can live with it. But LB in the 3rd round when we haven't drafted a single WR (or have drafted a single one, if we count Diggs) in last 5 years? With 40+M cap hits of Allen and lot of other expensive players we need to have steady influx of cheap WR, CB, DE and OL talent. And as for WR, second year in a row we failed to do it. I think it doesn't make any sense, especially with so much talent being on the board in 2nd and 3rd round. And it really seems like we haven't even tried. I don't get it. Same with OL. Beane told us that protecting Josh is a big priority - well then we need to draft accordingly.

 

3. Player himself. Since we drafted him, I haven't read a single thing about him which would make me feel better. At best he seems to be a LB depth. If we wanted another Milano, then why don't take a shot in 5th or something, just as with Milano? Besides, we already have Milano and he isn't going anywhere at least next 2 years. Is there any indication that this guy could take over Edmunds in case we let him walk? If not, what is the point of drafting a guy like him so high? Did we really need a player who might fill Klein's role (i.e. role of primary backup who never sees field if both starters are healthy) to be drafted this high?

 

To be clear, I love this regime and have full confidence in them. But this is the first time I absolutely don't get what they did. Every year from now on it will be harder and harder to keep a good team together due to cap reasons, and drafting gyus like this doesn't seem to be a way to go for me. I hope they prove me wrong though.

Good post and well-written, even though I don’t really agree. I’ll respond point by point:

 

1. You have a point, but it think you go too far. By this logic, Tom Brady in the 4th would’ve been a bad pick. That’s obviously nonsensical, so therefore there’s an issue with the logic. The fact is, it’s unknowable where Bernard would’ve gone if the Bills didn’t pick him. The Bills clearly disagreed with the consensus. If they were the ONLY team to disagree, then it was indeed a bad value pick. But if even one other team also disagreed, it might’ve been the only spot they could get Bernard. Now, they still need him to pan out for it to be a good pick. 
 

2. I mostly agree here, except that I think LB depth is about equally important. We had basically nothing behind our 2 starters prior to last night. 
 

3. I think you were just mad at this point, because “go draft another Milano in the 5th” is basically saying, “Hey, you won the lottery a couple years ago - why not just win it again?” I’m guessing they think the dropoff at LB was pretty steep after Bernard, but the dropoff is pretty shallow at other needed positions. Maybe they can get a G/C in the 5th who’s almost as good as Parham, but Bernard was the last LB in the draft that they thought could step in and start if Edmunds or Milano got hurt? Beane said that Bernard could play both spots and would bounce around. 
 

Go Bills!

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, cle23 said:

 

This is an honest question. Does he have that power? Because roster decision making is written into contracts. 

 

Brandon Beane serves at McDermott's discretion. 

[Governor]

Good post! 
 

it feels like we missed on some good value at safety yesterday. I wonder what the plan is.

[Cash]

21 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

A lot of promise doing what? Running into his own blocker on Kick off returns? Lol what are you talking about?

Acceleration, top end speed, ability to cut at speed. These are all very desirable traits that are hard to find in the NFL, and very hard to improve.

 

And yes, he made some dumb rookie mistakes. No *****. At the speed of the NFL game, decisions have to be made on an instinctual basis. Being a half-second late on a cut can make a huge difference. Plus, most rookies take some time to adjust to the level of competition. The stuff that used to work for them stops working, and they have to both get better and adjust. And guess what? That’s where the coaching staff can help!
 

Do you even Growth Mindset, bro?

[Apocalypse Nuts]

Gunner you should seriously be getting paid for all this great work you do all the time.  The Pegulas should seriously consider throwing something your way.💰

 

(even inspired me to go find a money bag emoji and I am not exactly a big emoji type person 😁)

[Shaw66]

18 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Brandon Beane serves at McDermott's discretion. 

Well, I believe that I teach asked the Pegulas to fire the other, Beane would go, but I dont know it with certainty you express.  How do you know this?  

[Shake_My_Head]

1 hour ago, LEBills said:

Since McDermott got here in 2017 and if you include the first rounder we used for Diggs, we have used 2 out of 7 first rounders on offense. Josh and Diggs. 
 

They need to put more premium assets to the offense. This year the WRs got scooped up

Well, how many first round worthy WRs drop to the bottom of the round, where the Bills pick?   They're generally gone by pick 20 or so, as bad teams ahead of the Bills scoup them up--pushing other positions down the board for Beane.   

 

They've used FA for WR2 and WR3, getting vets who could help Josh grow and develop.   With the salary cap constraints that kick in next year, I suspect 2023 is the year they work the draft to land cost-controlled WRs to bolster the offense.

[ganesh]

2 hours ago, LEBills said:

The lack of investment in WR is frustrating. This year there has been an unprecedented run on them, I can’t remember one where 14 WRs went in the first three rounds like this year but that is due to the explosion in the cost of the WR market. So I can’t really blame the Bills for missing out this year

The Bills were in a difficult situation in all the three rounds when there was a run on WRs right before them that pretty much took away any chance on them to get a WR.  I am sure if Moore, Pickens etc were on the board at our pick, we would have selected them. 

 

Additionally, the Bills have already picked McKenzie and Crowder in FA....so they were not going to invest a high pick on WR unless they fell to their draft position.

[Apocalypse Nuts]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

This is Sean McDermott's franchise. I say it often. He is the one with the ultimate decision making power. He empowers Beane and trusts him but if he wanted to veto anything he has that ability.

Probably right.  But why do we even need to go here in our conversations? I mean,  things are going so friggin’ nicely right now why mess with the mojo?

Lest we all forget all-too-recent history of our beloved Bills organization.  
In other words,  why stir stuff up just for the sake of stirring stuff up?

 

 You all might benefit from adding this song to your playlists.  Certainly helps me chill and keep things in perspective.  And if you know me, you will definitely agree that  I can use all of that I can get:

 

 

 

Edited April 30, 2022 by Apocalypse Nuts

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

2 hours ago, SCBills said:

Chiefs came into last night with a similar set up.  Three established WR’s in MVS, Juju and Hardman.  They also have a developmental guy in Cornell Powell as well as whatever Josh Gordon is.  They took Skyy Moore.  
 

Incredibly frustrating that even with the trade of Tyreek Hill, I still have to be impressed with how focused they are on giving Mahomes weapons.  
 

 

You're not comparing apples to apples though. The Chiefs went into this years draft with the following picks in the first 3 rounds:

 

Round 1, Pick 29

Round 1, Pick 30

Round 2, Pick 50

Round 2, Pick 62

Round 3, Pick 94

Round 3, Pick 103

 

They had double the Bills picks. Double the picks is not "a similar set up". Of course they are going to come away with more players. But the loss of Tyreek Hill should not be overlooked. 

[Dopey]

2 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Crazy to think a SB favorite is one Diggs or Davis injury away from Jake ducking Kumerow starting. 😅

A lot of teams are 1 injury away from SB aspirations. Including KC. 

[SCBills]

1 minute ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

You're not comparing apples to apples though. The Chiefs went into this years draft with the following picks in the first 3 rounds:

 

Round 1, Pick 29

Round 1, Pick 30

Round 2, Pick 50

Round 2, Pick 62

Round 3, Pick 94

Round 3, Pick 103

 

They had double the Bills picks. Double the picks is not "a similar set up". Of course they are going to come away with more players. But the loss of Tyreek Hill should not be overlooked. 

Im not overlooking it.. I don’t know that the Chiefs will be even close to as dynamic as they’ve been with Hill.  He’s that special.  
 

What I’m saying is that we have posters saying we don’t need a WR, when we have two legitimate outside WR’s.  
 

The Chiefs have MVS, Hardman and Juju as their starters, then still went out and got Mahomes Skyy Moore.  
 

We have Diggs, Davis and Crowder… a better 3-wide than the Chiefs, but after them we have a gadget/slot in McKenzie and that’s really it. 

[OldTimer1960]

Gunner - outstanding as always.  My concern with Cook and Bernard is that they are, at best, role players.  I clearly see the role for Cook and it has value, but I can’t really see him as a viable starting RB at his size.  Bernard seems like a pick where they are trying to replicate Milano’s success, but Bernard is probably only a nickel LB and special teamer.  I know it gets dicey late in the 3rd, but there have to have been players available who at least have the size and athleticism to possibly become starters.

 

I think with Cook to some extent and Bernard especially they took role players rather than potential starters.  For sure, the Bills have earned our trust and I am only a fan, but these picks perplex me.