2022 NFL Draft - Day 2 Debrief

[GunnerBill]

Day two of the 2022 NFL Draft is now in the books. The story was how late the Quarterbacks went and some nonsense from the podium before numerous picks. I might be the minority but I find all that stuff so tiresome. Get up there, read the name on the card. Go away. I'm preparing myself mentally for the ever more ridiculous pick announcements of day 3. Anyway.... on we go!

 

The Bills picks...

The Bills made two picks and executed two trade downs on day 2. I'm going to flip things about a bit by dealing with their third round pick first. "My guy" Jalen Tolbert the wide receiver from South Alabama went right before we picked at pick #88. Dylan Parham, an interior offensive lineman I really liked as a fit here when right after we picked at pick #90. I was disappointed the Bills didn't land either. Tolbert in particular who other than being a small school guy really belonged much earlier in the class IMO. The Cowboys do a good job of taking shots on receivers in the draft regularly which is why they can lose Amari Cooper and Cedric Wilson in a single offseason and still look pretty well stocked at the position. I think it is a general complaint I have with the Bills front office. In Beane's four full drafts before this one they have selected one receiver before the 6th round - Gabriel Davis. I think when you look at the WR market in free agency these days you have to be taking more shots earlier in the draft. 

 

All of that is the context to the selection of Terrel Bernard. But on the pick itself I have no real opinion. He wasn't a player I watched so much as one snap of. I listened to Beane's presser afterwards and they obviously like him, think he can provide depth at both linebacker spots and maybe replaces the vet salary of AJ Klein in that regard, but Klein had the experience and the smarts to do that. Feels like a big ask for a rookie so I expect in his first year he will more serve as the primary backup to Matt Milano. Just from what Beane said about him and what I have read he is an undersized, coverage linebacker, with decent range and good short area quickness. That is a similar profile to Matt. Hopefully he develops the same way. They kicked the can on Milano's deal with a restructure this offseason so it costs $8.6m to get out after this coming year meaning that Matt is likely here at least two more seasons. So while I definitely trust Beane and staff's evaluation of the player I think the people who ask "was there not a guy there in round 3 who could have got on the field consistently sooner than Bernard?" have a legitimate question. 

 

So coming back to James Cook and the trade downs. The Bills took less than typical value on both trades by the Jimmy Johnson chart. The Rich Hill chart would suggest they were only 1 point out on the first trade down from #57 to #60 with Tampa but were more significantly "underpaid" by Cincy in the trade down to #63. Anyway, two additional 6th rounders were added. What the Bills trading down twice for less than market value tells you is that they had no guys left by #57 with second round grades and it was noticeable that in his presser last night Beane did not say they had a second on Cook. I suspect they had a high 3rd on Cook and maybe one or two others in that range and so they thought "if we have to take a 3rd round grade at the end of round 2 we might as well pick up a couple of extra day 3 picks to do so." And I get the thinking. I do like Cook. He was my RB3 and went 3rd of the running backs after Hall and Walker who are the two true "lead back" types from this draft. Cook is more of the Austin Eckler type in that he can run the ball but he is really an offensive weapon as much as a running back. I wouldn't be surprised if he quickly becomes one of Josh's favourite check down guys. He runs those little screens, swing routes and hook routes better than Devin Singletary and while he might not have Motor's wiggle he is bigger and faster and more dynamic with ball in hand in the open field. A time share between those two guys has the opportunity to provide an upgrade in both the running game and also in the running back passing game. 

 

But finally back to where I started..... it means Brandon Beane has spent three day 2 picks on running backs as Bills GM and zero day 2 picks on receivers. I am not entirely sold on that strategically. Though that isn't meant as a knock on either of the picks above in isolation. 

 

What about the other 31...

The Baltimore Ravens are just really darn good at this. And the reason they are really darn good at this is while other teams talk BPA, the Baltimore Ravens live it. Kyle Hamilton, Tyler Linderbaum and David Ojabo were all top 21 players on my board. Then they go and add Travis Jones at a point where he represented value too. I think they have crushed another draft. Yes, they have lost a speedy receiving weapon and it is legit to question how they fill that spot a bit like we are talking with regards to the Bills and their receiver depth, but overall they can pleased with their work in the first two days. The Cowboys had an excellent day 2 as well. I've already mentioned my guy Jalen Tolbert but Sam Williams at edge is a very high ceiling player with an explosive first step. If he can keep himself clean off the field he has a chance to be a pro bowl type player. The Colts are the third team I'd mention. Thought they got good value on all four day 2 picks they had. Alec Pierce adds a much needed receiving weapon, Jelani Woods is a high ceiling guy at tight end, Bernard Raimann could eventually end up as a franchise left tackle with a bit of seasoning and Nick Cross will be an off the bus starter at safety. The Steelers having taken their shot at Quarterback in round one addressed two needs with two guys I had high seconds on in George Pickens and DeMarvin Leal. They both have character questions of some sort - Pickens off-field, Leal his motor on the field - but they are both super talented guys and Pittsburgh has a way of assimilating these people into their culture and reaping the rewards. When you look back now it seems incredible they had so many relatively drama free years out of Antonio Brown until his final few months there given everything that has happened with him since. I should also give props to Kansas City. Didn't love what they did day 1. Thought they made three solid picks on day 2, all of whom will play significant reps for them in 2022. 

 

What's left?

There are 44 guys left that I have watched enough of to have a clear grade on and have on my board. From a Bills perspective, no fourth, one late 5th and then four 6ths and a 7th they might want to get up to get into the next "tier" of prospects. My instinct is if they want to get into round 4 they need to package their 5th and the first pick of the 6th round (acquired from Tampa). That by the Jimmy Johnson chart can get you to around 132... just lower than their original 4th rounder. By the Rich Hill chart it doesn't quite get you there but you can sneak into the comp picks at the bottom of the round. In terms of areas where we might want to take a shot where there is still some depth.... tight end and interior offensive line are the two that stand out. 

 

Top 15 BPA by my board:

 

1. Perrion Winfrey, DT, Oklahoma

2. Daniel Faalele, OT, Minnesota

3. Darian Kinnard, IOL, Kentucky

4. Carson Strong*, QB, Nevada

5. Tariq Woolen, CB, UTSA

6. Justyn Ross*, WR, Clemson

7. Brandon Smith, LB, Penn State

8. Rasheed Walker, OT, Penn State

9. Sam Howell, QB, North Carolina

10. Jayln Armour-Davis, CB, Alabama

11. Cade Otton, TE, Washington

12. Charlie Kolar, Tight End, Notre Dame

13. Calvin Austin, WR, Memphis

14. Max Mitchell, OT, Louisiana

15. Damone Clark*, LB, LSU

 

 

Enjoy the final day folks. 6th round picks are fun!!  

 

 

Edited April 30, 2022 by GunnerBill

[LabattBlue]

Good insights on lack of premium picks used on WR…especially compared to RB. 

[RangerDave]

Thanks again, Gunner!  My wife, who is a casual football fan at best, had an interesting question on the draft.  I've read that of all the first round picks historically, less than 50% of QBs pan out and that only 60% overall pan out.  Now defining "panning out" can be argued, but her question is this:

 

       Are there certain positions historically that "pan out" better than the others?  For the sake of argument, we can either define "panning out" as becoming a good starter (which is hard to define in itself) or we can define it as making the pro bowl (which is often a farce, but at least provides an empirical stat to use).

 

Are there statistics on this, or do you have a gut feeling based on your vast knowledge and experience?

 

Thanks!

[Thurman#1]

Great stuff, Gunner. Thanks.

[LEBills]

The lack of investment in WR is frustrating. This year there has been an unprecedented run on them, I can’t remember one where 14 WRs went in the first three rounds like this year but that is due to the explosion in the cost of the WR market. So I can’t really blame the Bills for missing out this year

 

However, our roster is starting to get expensive and with that it is starting to show its lack of depth. Next year we will have Diggs and Stephenson along with Davis, Hodgins and McKenzie all on the last year of their deals. Not exactly a world beating room for a team that wants to keep their fastball. And we currently have no TEs under contract for 2023, though hopefully Knox gets extended soon.

 

As Josh has become the center of our team, I hope they do more in the future to support him. Even if it means creating a few holes in our defense along the way.

 

 

 

 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

At this point, I find the Bills draft to be uninspiring. I'm still not sure  we can handle Cover 2 as well as we need to without Josh running. I'm still not sure we've added enough of a threat with the RAC downfield at WR. We did solve the problem at CB2 I hope, although I'm not sure the trade up was great for our setup of the next 2 rounds. We shall see, McBeane has been great during the tenure, not infallible however.

Edited April 30, 2022 by D. L. Hot-Flamethrower

[SCBills]

18 minutes ago, LEBills said:

The lack of investment in WR is frustrating. This year there has been an unprecedented run on them, I can’t remember one where 14 WRs went in the first three rounds like this year but that is due to the explosion in the cost of the WR market. So I can’t really blame the Bills for missing out this year

 

However, our roster is starting to get expensive and with that it is starting to show its lack of depth. Next year we will have Diggs and Stephenson along with Davis, Hodgins and McKenzie all on the last year of their deals. Not exactly a world beating room for a team that wants to keep their fastball. And we currently have no TEs under contract for 2023, though hopefully Knox gets extended soon.

 

As Josh has become the center of our team, I hope they do more in the future to support him. Even if it means creating a few holes in our defense along the way.

 

 

 

 

The way the board fell was somewhat of a disaster “if” we even wanted a WR last night. 
 

That said, “if” we wanted a WR, the run started right before us, so we were absolutely in trade up range.  
 

There are a few guys out there today that would still upgrade the WR room, although, at this point I’m starting to think they are somehow content.  Maybe they are higher on Stevenson or Hodgins than we think, because Kumerow can’t be the answer if we lose Diggs or Davis for any period of time.  
 

Chiefs came into last night with a similar set up.  Three established WR’s in MVS, Juju and Hardman.  They also have a developmental guy in Cornell Powell as well as whatever Josh Gordon is.  They took Skyy Moore.  
 

Incredibly frustrating that even with the trade of Tyreek Hill, I still have to be impressed with how focused they are on giving Mahomes weapons.  
 

 

Edited April 30, 2022 by SCBills

[LEBills]

3 minutes ago, SCBills said:

The way the board fell was somewhat of a disaster “if” we even wanted a WR last night. 
 

That said, “if” we wanted a WR, the run started right before us, so we were absolutely in trade up range.  
 

There are a few guys out there today that would still upgrade the WR room, although, at this point I’m starting to think they are somehow content.  Maybe they are higher on Stevenson or Hodgins than we think, because Kumerow can’t be the answer if we lose Diggs or Davis for any period of time.  
 

Chiefs came into last night with a similar set up.  Three established WR’s in MVS, Juju and Hardman.  They also have a developmental guy in Cornell Powell as well as whatever Josh Gordon is.  They took Skyy Moore.  
 

Incredibly frustrating that even with the trade of Tyreek Hill, I still have to be impressed with how focused they are on giving Mahomes weapons.  
 

 

The Chiefs draft has been ok. I would take our WR room over there’s today so that’s a positive. But unless we start investing higher end assets into it going forward, it won’t continue to be that way.

[SCBills]

2 minutes ago, LEBills said:

The Chiefs draft has been ok. I would take our WR room over there’s today so that’s a positive. But unless we start investing higher end assets into it going forward, it won’t continue to be that way.

Oh, I agree.. Diggs, Davis and Crowder is a legit trio, but I’m honestly shocked that we’re sitting here going into Day 3 with Kumerow as our outside WR3 for a team that throws the ball a ton. 
 

While the Chiefs lost a ton of firepower in Hill and some depth in Pringle, I do think they rebounded nicely with MVS, Juju and Moore. 
 

 

[LEBills]

Just now, SCBills said:

Oh, I agree.. Diggs, Davis and Crowder is a legit trio, but I’m honestly shocked that we’re sitting here going into Day 3 with Kumerow as our outside WR3 for a team that throws the ball a ton. 
 

While the Chiefs lost a ton of firepower in Hill and some depth in Pringle, I do think they rebounded nicely with MVS, Juju and Moore. 
 

 

Yea, I like the Chiefs drafts. I thought last year how they rebuilt their line was masterful. They haven’t put high end assets into their receivers as I think Juju and MVS won’t be long for the roster I think Skyy will be a monster in that offense.

 

As much as I hate the Chiefs, I hope the Bills take some notes on how to shape a roster with a super-contract QB from them.

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, LEBills said:

Yea, I like the Chiefs drafts. I thought last year how they rebuilt their line was masterful. They haven’t put high end assets into their receivers as I think Juju and MVS won’t be long for the roster I think Skyy will be a monster in that offense.

 

As much as I hate the Chiefs, I hope the Bills take some notes on how to shape a roster with a super-contract QB from them.

 

Refreshed their entire linebacking unit too. All 3 starters will be on rookie deals in 2022. And two nice picks on the secondary this year which they have been guilty of ignoring in the past.

 

EDIT: do think the Dline is going to nees more work soon. Don't love Karlaftis. Jones can't go forever.

Edited April 30, 2022 by GunnerBill

[LEBills]

1 minute ago, ScottLaw said:

I expect Beane to be asked about the WR depth after the draft at his presser…. Then again the Buffalo media sucks so maybe not…

Yea I doubt it, he barely got any push back on Bernard which was one of the biggest reaches so far. Let’s hope he can snag one of the draftable prospects left.
 

If he gets Romeo Doubs I will take back what I said because I think he is a third round talent.

[SCBills]

9 minutes ago, LEBills said:

Yea, I like the Chiefs drafts. I thought last year how they rebuilt their line was masterful. They haven’t put high end assets into their receivers as I think Juju and MVS won’t be long for the roster I think Skyy will be a monster in that offense.

 

As much as I hate the Chiefs, I hope the Bills take some notes on how to shape a roster with a super-contract QB from them.

They had a ton of high picks, so much easier to look good in the Draft.. and I think Karlaftis is womp womp, but the other defensive guys and Skyy Moore were good picks.  

[LEBills]

8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Refreshed their entire linebacking unit too. All 3 starters will be on rookie deals in 2022. And two nice picks on the secondary this year which they have been guilty of ignoring in the past.

 

EDIT: do think the Dline is going to nees more work soon. Don't love Karlaftis. Jones can't go forever.

yes, I still don’t think Bolton is great but Chenel is going to be a problem for us. Hated seeing that.

[LEBills]

1 minute ago, ScottLaw said:

Crazy to think a SB favorite is one Diggs or Davis injury away from Jake ducking Kumerow starting. 😅

Aaron Rodgers was mad when the Packers cut him!

[BuffaloBill]

The one way I disagree with the OP’s thoughts is that in effect Beane used a first to acquire Diggs. I also think Beane stays true to his board, especially in the early rounds. They had none of the available receivers ranked as a round 1 pick as they came close. 
 

I also trust they had nobody with a round two grade when their chance came up. 
 

I like the fact that Beane does not reach for picks. WR’s generally don’t make big year 1 contributions.  There are also value picks that come later in the draft who later become studs (look at Diggs). 

[LEBills]

1 minute ago, BuffaloBill said:

The one way I disagree with the OP’s thoughts is that in effect Beane used a first to acquire Diggs. I also think Beane stays true to his board, especially in the early rounds. They had none of the available receivers ranked as a round 1 pick as they came close. 
 

I also trust they had nobody with a round two grade when their chance came up. 
 

I like the fact that Beane does not reach for picks. WR’s generally don’t make big year 1 contributions.  There are also value picks that come later in the draft who later become studs (look at Diggs). 

Since McDermott got here in 2017 and if you include the first rounder we used for Diggs, we have used 2 out of 7 first rounders on offense. Josh and Diggs. 
 

They need to put more premium assets to the offense. This year the WRs got scooped up, but the last time we have drafted a receiver before round three was Zay Jones 🤮 in 2017.

[JGMcD2]

20 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Crazy to think a SB favorite is one Diggs or Davis injury away from Jake ducking Kumerow starting. 😅

If went on every thread in the last 3 days and compiled all of your posts repeating this same statement, I could put together a thread that rivals the stupid ***** 100 page Breece Hall thread.

 

Enough already. 

[Cash]

1 hour ago, RangerDave said:

Thanks again, Gunner!  My wife, who is a casual football fan at best, had an interesting question on the draft.  I've read that of all the first round picks historically, less than 50% of QBs pan out and that only 60% overall pan out.  Now defining "panning out" can be argued, but her question is this:

 

       Are there certain positions historically that "pan out" better than the others?  For the sake of argument, we can either define "panning out" as becoming a good starter (which is hard to define in itself) or we can define it as making the pro bowl (which is often a farce, but at least provides an empirical stat to use).

 

Are there statistics on this, or do you have a gut feeling based on your vast knowledge and experience?

 

Thanks!

I’m nowhere near Gunner on this stuff, but I wasn’t too far off in my younger days. There won’t be any super-reliable statistics on this stuff, because “pan out” is very subjective.
 

Back when I was an amateur draft analyst, my general conclusion was that the more premium the position, the higher the bust rate in the first round. My hypothesis is that teams are more willing to take a chance on a premium position, because they’re just hard to get. So they’ll draft QBs/DEs/CBs/WRs/OTs with some red flags, but they won’t do the same for safeties or guards or run-stopping DTs. 
 

I once did my own QB analysis with basically the criteria you laid out, and found that about 50% of first rounders “made it”, then down to around 20-30% in the 2nd, about 10-15% in the 3rd, and dropping from there. Only outlier was the 6th round, which was better than the 5th due to Tom Brady and Marc Bulger. 

[No_Matter_What]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

All of that is the context to the selection of Terrel Bernard. But on the pick itself I have no real opinion. He wasn't a player I watched so much as one snap of. I listened to Beane's presser afterwards and they obviously like him, think he can provide depth at both linebacker spots and maybe replaces the vet salary of AJ Klein in that regard, but Klein had the experience and the smarts to do that. Feels like a big ask for a rookie so I expect in his first year he will more serve as the primary backup to Matt Milano. Just from what Beane said about him and what I have read he is an undersized, coverage linebacker, with decent range and good short area quickness. That is a similar profile to Matt. Hopefully he develops the same way. They kicked the can on Milano's deal with a restructure this offseason so it costs $8.6m to get out after this coming year meaning that Matt is likely here at least two more seasons. So while I definitely trust Beane and staff's evaluation of the player I think the people who ask "was there not a guy there in round 3 who could have got on the field consistently sooner than Bernard?" have a legitimate question.

 

I've never been more disappointed by the Bills draft pick. To me it just doesn't make any sense. There are 3 reasons for it:

 

1. General consensus. I hate when GMs try to outsmart everybody. Guy wasn't in top 100 in any board I've seen except PFN - that is the only reason I knew about him. Now I know that media personalities and various sport sites are not NFL scouts, but still - those are also guys who do this for a living in some capacity. You just can't be smarter than everybody. That is why Cole Strange is a bad pick no matter what, and why Terrel Bernard is a bad pick no matter what. Yes, he was a bad pick even if he pans out better than expected. It is like in poker - even bad decision can (and often does) result in a huge win. But to win longterm, you need to make good decisions. Reaching because you see something what nobody else does is not a way how to build a roster. Reaching for a non-premium position even more so.

 

2. Resource allocation. 1st round CB is a great resource allocation. 2nd round RB not so much, especially if it is 3rd RB picked in the first 3 rounds in 4 years. But OK, I can live with it. But LB in the 3rd round when we haven't drafted a single WR (or have drafted a single one, if we count Diggs) in last 5 years? With 40+M cap hits of Allen and lot of other expensive players we need to have steady influx of cheap WR, CB, DE and OL talent. And as for WR, second year in a row we failed to do it. I think it doesn't make any sense, especially with so much talent being on the board in 2nd and 3rd round. And it really seems like we haven't even tried. I don't get it. Same with OL. Beane told us that protecting Josh is a big priority - well then we need to draft accordingly.

 

3. Player himself. Since we drafted him, I haven't read a single thing about him which would make me feel better. At best he seems to be a LB depth. If we wanted another Milano, then why don't take a shot in 5th or something, just as with Milano? Besides, we already have Milano and he isn't going anywhere at least next 2 years. Is there any indication that this guy could take over Edmunds in case we let him walk? If not, what is the point of drafting a guy like him so high? Did we really need a player who might fill Klein's role (i.e. role of primary backup who never sees field if both starters are healthy) to be drafted this high?

 

To be clear, I love this regime and have full confidence in them. But this is the first time I absolutely don't get what they did. Every year from now on it will be harder and harder to keep a good team together due to cap reasons, and drafting gyus like this doesn't seem to be a way to go for me. I hope they prove me wrong though.