Rd 3, Pick 89 (25): LB Terrell Bernard, Baylor

[newcam2012]

23 minutes ago, Logic said:

My counter argument is that football fans and draftniks get way too attached to their pre-draft rankings. 

We read these draft guides and watch a few Youtube highlight videos and think that all our perceived values are unimpeachable. We think that we know -- without ever having seen these players in person, ever having watched ACTUAL tape, ever having interviewed them and put them up on the whiteboard -- as much as the professional scouts and GMs who HAVE done those things.

So you get attached to your Lindy's or Athlon Sports or Dane Brugler draft guide ranking and consider it gospel, and then when the player gets picked earlier, you say it's a "reach", and if they get picked later, you say it's a "steal". 

This year's draft, more than any other before it, hasn't proven this once and for all: Fans know nothing. Media knows nothing. 

This isn't to say we have to blindly accept or defend all the picks that teams make. Sometimes they're dumb picks. So you may be right. Maybe Bernard was a reach. Or maybe your perceived value of him is wrong, and the pro scouts are right, and he'll play valuable sub-package downs for two years and then take over for Milano and save the Bills $7.5M. 

Great post! 👍

[NickelCity]

4 minutes ago, Logic said:

Scouts’ opinions of Bernard from Bob McGinn’s draft profile series on Golongtd.com:

 

 

TERREL BERNARD, LB, Baylor

Height: 6-1.

Weight: 222.

40: 4.59.

Wonderlic: 30.

 

Hometown: La Porte, Texas.

 

Fact/Stat: Fifth-year senior, three-year starter … Finished his injury-riddled career with 317 tackles (31 ½ for loss), 16 ½ sacks, three interceptions, no forced fumbles and 12 passes defensed.

 

What NFL scouts told me about him before the draft…

 

AFC scout: “He’s better than the Wyoming guy (Chad Muma) but he’s little and he had a broken shoulder last year. He is a football-playin’ dude. A great kid, and really, really smart. Remember, Dat Nguyen was 218 at his pro day, too.”

 

NFC scout: “He’s just little. He’s got some quickness. He’s extraordinarily smart. Great makeup. He’s a leader. He’s an alpha. But he’s small, and in the NFL they start running power at you. They’re going to make you go straight down the pipe and take on that 330-pound pulling guard. He’s going to get bounced around. He’s tough, but he’s not strong. I wish I could say I liked him more. Put it this way: if he succeeds, it wouldn’t surprise me. He’s the type of guy that will find a way.”

 

AFC scout: “It wouldn’t surprise me if he could wear the green dot.”

 

NFC scout: “He can wear the green dot.”

 

AFC scout: “Undersized guy but he’s a good player. Late pick. He ran in the 4.5s. Best in space and laterally. He can rush the passer. Times his blitzes. Drops easy. Can cover.”

 

NFC scout: “Small guy that plays hard but very limited. He got beat up trying to take on. Not a very good athlete. He knows how to play. He’s got instincts. Free agent.”

 

AFC scout: “He can wear the green dot. Really smart. Just a really good player. Undersized, a little stiff, little limited in space. He just really has a nose for the ball and he always finds it. I do think he’ll be a low-end starter. You’ll want better but it’s hard to find teams that have three linebackers better than him.”

 

NFC scout: “He’s a versatile, every-down starter if he’s able to gain weight and stay healthy. All ball all the time. Confident, but not arrogant. Hard practice player. He’s the type you would hire to be a coach after he is done playing.”

 

AFC scout: “Definitely he could wear the green dot.”

 

NFC scout: “He’s too small and doesn’t make enough plays for me. Fifth or sixth round.”

 

Ouch.

[Lenigmusx]

13 hours ago, Hebert19 said:

I think he's a poyer replacement

This is exactly what I was thinking! He has safety speed and coverage skills. Yet he is aggressive and a downhill tackler who can handle a big TE or RB at the line or down the field. 

[purple haze]

5 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

Nice post and the concerns you state are legitimate. 

Oh ok that makes everything fine and dandy then. Thanks!

Not likely. 

It only takes one team and the Bills were that team.  It doesn’t matter that others (draft pundits/fans) never mentioned Bernard.   That’s the reality.  It doesn’t make everything fine and dandy nor is the sky falling because Beane selected him.  

The Bills need depth - players who can fit a role, for now, w/ potential to do more later.   Bernard fits that profile.  We’ll see if he’s successful. 

 

[ColoradoBills]

I'm going to speculate this guy would of been the 4th round pick.  The board didn't fall right and they wanted him so he got picked

in the 3rd.  I can see why some see it as a reach but I will wait to see how many snaps they get out of this guy throughout a game

and what impact he makes before I deem the pick as bad.

[Motorin']

2 minutes ago, NickelCity said:

 

Ouch.

 

4 of those scouts said he can be the starting MIC. Another said he'd be the best #3 LB in the league. 

 

Another 4 had very positive things to say. 

 

2 were negative.

[london_bills]

11 hours ago, gobills404 said:

Saying you want a team draft a certain position in a certain round will never make any sense

Only if you always go for BPA. Maybe there's s good o line player you had graded slightly under the BPA but would help protect your franchise QB.

[Slippery Rubber Mats]

Reaches are ok

 

say it a few times to yourselves 

[Alphadawg7]

Here is the thing.  It’s not a reach.  Anyone calling it reach is just making that up.  
 

Nobody here is qualified to grade these players.  Mel Kiper isn’t either.  So people are calling it a reach because everything people here know about him is what they read about from unqualified internet and media people giving him a guess of a grade.

 

No teams draft board looks like the next teams either.  Our front office placed a grade on him for how he fits in their plans and system.  They do not know how the other teams graded him or where they might take him.  So based on how we graded him we took him where they felt comfortable taking him based on how he graded against all the remaining players they had on the board.  
 

Just like people falsely claiming we reached for Elam.  Which is non sense when Beane literally said he was the only guy on their board left with a first round grade.  Which means had he taken any of the other players some people wanted him to take Beane would have actually been reaching because they were literally all graded lower than Elam by Beane and his staff as a second round player or less.  
 

And when you get down to the 3rd round and later, these grades vary even more wildly from team to team.  And media grades and mocks literally have no value in how a team grades a player.  
 

FWIW:  No one thought much of the Milano pick either at the time it was made and most didn’t even know who he was.

 

Edited April 30, 2022 by Alphadawg7

[MasterStrategist]

3 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Here is the thing.  It’s not a reach.  Anyone calling it reach is just making that up.  
 

Nobody here is qualified to grade these players.  Mel Kiper isn’t either.  So people are calling it a reach because everything people here know about him is what they read about from unqualified internet and media people giving him a guess of a grade.

 

No teams draft board looks like the next teams either.  Our front office placed a grade on him for how he fits in their plans and system.  They do not know how the other teams graded him.  So based on how we graded him we took him where they felt comfortable taking him based on how he graded against all the remaining players they had on the board.  
 

Just like people falsely claiming we reached for Elam.  Which is non sense when Beane literally said he was the only guy on their board left with a first round grade.  Which means had he taken any of the other players some people wanted him to take Beane would have actually been reaching because they were literally all graded lower than Elam by Beanes staff as a second round  player or less.  
 

And when you get down to the 3rd round and later, there’s grades vary even more wildly from team to team.  And media grades and mocks literally have no value in how a team grades a player.  
 

FWIW:  No one thought much of the Milano pick either at the time it was made and most didn’t even know who he was.

Completely agree.

 

On top of this, McDermott and the Baylor coach have a great relationship.  It helps to know you can trust a college coach who has seen him develop for multiple years, how he approaches practice/leadership, etc.  

 

We need to wait and see what role the coaches have in mind, but these are all valuable for a 3rd rounder:

1. Primary LB backup and STs: we know Milano has issues staying healthy for all 17 games, need a more athletic/cheaper replacement for Klein.

 

2. Certain coverage/3rd down packages: he could be a mathchup dependent chess piece, ie: against talented TEs, or could be deployed in the "Zo" role and how they used Klein at times, as an edge rusher/blitz packages.  

 

Kid has the athletic/leadership traits to be a good player, might need time to get stronger but coaches will find a role for him.  We needed more team speed on defense, he's a piece toward that.

[Alphadawg7]

1 minute ago, MasterStrategist said:

Completely agree.

 

On top of this, McDermott and the Baylor coach have a great relationship.  It helps to know you can trust a college coach who has seen him develop for multiple years, how he approaches practice/leadership, etc.  

 

We need to wait and see what role the coaches have in mind, but these are all valuable for a 3rd rounder:

1. Primary LB backup and STs: we know Milano has issues staying healthy for all 17 games, need a more athletic/cheaper replacement for Klein.

 

2. Certain coverage/3rd down packages: he could be a mathchup dependent chess piece, ie: against talented TEs, or could be deployed in the "Zo" role and how they used Klein at times, as an edge rusher/blitz packages.  

 

Kid has the athletic/leadership traits to be a good player, might need time to get stronger but coaches will find a role for him.  We needed more team speed on defense, he's a piece toward that.

Exactly and quite honestly, outside of CB (which we drafted) and Punter (assume we draft one later) there are not any positions really where we are not locked in this year in terms of starters.  
 

Im actually not that familiar with Bernard like most, but I have really liked what I have read and seen so far.  He really stands out as a Milano type player, and that excites me as Milano has flourished in our system.  Which is probably why he has a higher grade on Beanes board as his tweener size isn’t a deterrent to them the way they have developed Milano.

[JohnNord]

12 hours ago, sirebors said:

 

You have no idea who this player is, absolutely no knowledge of him, and you hated the pick? Curious... 

 

I meant I had no personal knowledge before the pick.  From what I’ve read he’s a smaller player who lacks size and physicality.  It sounds like his best position in the defense is where Milano plays and he would not be a replacement should Edmunds walk.  
 

Most analysts had him in the 4th or 5th round and his comps were not that great - depth LB and Special Teamer.

 

I just feel for the Bills could have gotten better value in Round 3 based on players who were on the board.  
 

Again just my quick reaction.  I am sure the Bills have a plan for how they want to use him.  But at first blush, this isn’t a pick I would have made in Round 3

Edited April 30, 2022 by JohnNord

[Beerball]

6 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

 

I meant I had no personal knowledge before the pick.  From what I’ve read he’s a smaller player who lacks size and physicality.  It sounds like his best position in the defense is where Milano plays and he would not be a replacement should Edmunds walk.  
 

Most analysts had him in the 4th or 5th round and his comps were not that great - depth LB and Special Teamer.

 

I just feel for the Bills could have gotten better value in Round 3 based on players who were on the board.  
 

Again just my quick reaction.  I am sure the Bills have a plan for how they want to use him.  But at first blush, this isn’t a pick I would have made in Round 3

I realize that I was watching highlights, but I was impressed with the way he hits, especially for someone 222.

[Bob Chandler's Hands]

19 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

 

  From what I’ve read he’s a smaller player who lacks size and physicality.

Truer words were never written. 

[Logic]

My Lindy's Sports draft guide magazine is quite complementary of Bernard, listing him as their 4th ranked outside linebacker. I'll transcribe the writeup here:

Strengths: Runs like a safety when he gets room to build up speed. Always around the ball due to his effort in pursuit. Nifty at evading blocks through both agility and hand usage. Angry and energized tackler who fights to bring people down. Football intelligence is evident on the field. Very loose hips allow him to change directions like a defensive back. Won't take snaps off. Feisty enough to do some damage as a blitzer.

Weaknesses: Going to get bullied at times in the run game due to his size and play strength. Uses his chest as a battering gam sometimes to make up for his lack of arm length. More nimble on his junior tape than his senior tape. Will be bowled over by larger backs in the NFL. Drag tackler who may need some assistance to get finishes. Coverage awareness and technique need work.

Pro Comparison: Deion Jones, Falcons -- Coming off his sixth year as a starter for the Falcons, there's little doubt that Jones has been able to succeed despite his underwhelming size. Bernard has similar measurables and energy, and he should be able. to find a starting job sooner than later.

Rating: 7.5/10 -- Above Average Starter

Edited April 30, 2022 by Logic

[The Frankish Reich]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Here is the thing.  It’s not a reach.  Anyone calling it reach is just making that up

I think people are forgetting that we have a damn good roster. Maybe the best in the NFL. So you're drafting for immediate needs, two of which are rookie-starter quality CB (check) and RB with speed to get outside who can be an asset in the passing game (check). It would be nice to also find a rookie starter quality O lineman, but they went the bargain free agent route to fix that need, and I think they did a pretty good job at that.

So maybe they know Bernard is a guy who's willing and able to be a special teams guy who will learn a role and fill in as needed, who is also a high ceiling guy if you find the right defensive niche for him. And apparently a 30 Wonderlic if the reports are to be believed.

[unbillievable]

Where a player is picked doesn't matter much after the 1st round. Even the draft points shout it out.

 

So much talk about "value". Stop trying to shop for bargains!

 

This pick shouts that the team wants specialists for their 2022 Superbowl run!

Not backups..

[HappyDays]

 

[Norcalbillsfan]

I'm gonna trust beane on this one cuz like many on this board I have no idea who he is. But to take a positive look at it, he is getting knocked cuz hes smaller. But look at the way most teams has drafted at CB this draft, small and fast. 2 years ago no body would draft any of these small CBs. It shows the NFL is changing, maybe the bills are ahead of the curve and moving their LB core to more Milano type guys. But that's just me looking at the glass half full.

[I'm Spartacus]

13 hours ago, folz said:

The way I am seeing this draft is, as this regime has said in the past, "We are building a team, not collecting talent." I think all 3 of these guys fill in to what the team needs (see below).

 

Also, McBeane always looks at what went wrong last year and tries to fix that, as well as keeping up with the Jones'.

 

Well first things first, we have to look at Kansas City and the 13 seconds, and then the upsurging AFC (Bengals, Chargers, Broncos, Raiders, etc.). We are going to face a lot of great QBs over the next couple of years. And where were we weak last year? Defensive speed (particularly over the middle of the field) against fast teams (WRs/TEs), with good QBs.

 

Elam should be an upgrade to Levi and is much faster. And instead of eliminating just one weapon on Tre Island, hopefully (eventually), we can have two shutdown corners, making it tough on two pass catchers. They can play more man and not have to compensate for anyone (Levi or Dane).

 

And this pick (LB Terrell Bernard Pick 89) may look bad because most draft experts will say, "eh he's a tweener" and not rate him as high, knowing that some teams will not want/pick a tweener because of their defensive system. But, as Milano has shown, that type of player fits perfectly in our system. So it might not be a great pick here for another team, but it may be for Buffalo. And as good as Milano is, he has been oft injured and the defense usually takes a big hit/drop when he is out. So, first off, Bernard is insurance for a Milano injury, that our coverage doesn't suffer if he is out.

 

But also, remember when Klein first got some starts and he looked awful? That's because best case scenario, they needed him to be able to cover. But that wasn't his skillset, so they had to adapt things. They don't have to adapt with Bernard. In certain situations against certain teams, they could go with 3 LBs and two of them (Milano and Bernard) are fast and can cover. Does the 13 seconds happen last year if you swap in Elam for Levi and Bernard for Klein? Maybe not...plus we got Von now too! I feel like they are addressing a serious weakness that they saw.

 

And finally with Cook, we now have a legit hr threat (speed-wise) in and coming out of the backfield. This was obviously an area they wanted to upgrade as seen by the attempt at signing McKissic and then adding Duke.

 

I don't know enough about these individual players (I don't watch a lot of college ball) to know if they will all reach the potential the Bills see in them. But the picks do seem to make sense to me when you match up the player's traits and our needs (where the team felt that they needed to get better). And there is nothing wrong with adding speed, speed, and more speed.

 

As for WR, I didn't see that as a big of a need as others to start with, we have a lot of pass catchers (Diggs, Davis, Crowder, McKenzie, Knox, Howard, Kumerow, Singletary) and they just added Cook to the mix who will not only be great for screens and dump offs, but the guy can also line up wide and go deep. I'm not saying they'll use him like that all the time, but maybe enough to keep defenses honest (people said we needed a speed WR to take the top off the defense...maybe between Cook and McKenzie, we have that covered). I mean, how much playing time would a rookie receiver have gotten next year anyhow with our depth chart? I'm really not concerned with Josh not having enough weapons. Look at last year's playoffs...and essentially all we did was swap Crowder for Beasley and added Howard and Cook. To me Sanders is a wash, because he was just taking reps away from Gabe.

 

Just trying to see the rationale to the picks. Go Bills!

Very well said. The glass is half full view!