Rd 2, Pick 63 (31): RB James Cook, Georgia

[HappyDays]

On 5/1/2022 at 5:50 PM, BADOLBILZ said:

If they were a press man team,  maybe that's different.   But they play zone.   He will be shielded by the system.

 

 

They're going to start playing press man now. They took Elam specifically to make that an option. Your mistake is watching how our secondary was schemed up with Levi Wallace as CB2 and assuming that is the only scheme McDermott and Frazier want to run. I watched Beane speak live yesterday. He openly admitted there were opponents last year that they would have liked to play press man against but lacked the ability at the player level to do it.

 

Elam will NOT be shielded by the system like Wallace was. He will be given some level of coverage help as a rookie but overall they will give him many more one-on-one opportunities than they ever gave Wallace. Elam's ability to play more on an island will open up the overall versatility of the back 7. If you think of a typical good offense where one outside WR is a shifty route runner and the other is a physical mismatch, White will be on an island against the shifty one and Elam will be on an island against the physical mismatch. They will still play primarily zone but Elam won't just be sitting back, letting the WR make the 5 yard catch, then rallying to tackle him. The days of people complaining about Wallace's "soft zone" coverage are over.

 

McDermott and Frazier have "gotten by" with Wallace. I think last year they finally got sick of just "getting by" and ending up in situations like the final 13 seconds where they couldn't trust him to do anything other than give a free release and rally to tackle 20 yards down the field. Replacing Wallace with Elam changed what we're able to do on an entire half of the field.

 

Edited May 3, 2022 by HappyDays

[HappyDays]

On 5/1/2022 at 5:50 PM, BADOLBILZ said:

He could play well but they could easily decide that they could just plug in a Dane Jackson or Levi Wallace level type of player and be just fine rather than pick up his 5th year option or extend him.     Because they have LITERALLY done that for the past 4 seasons.  

 

Sure, and they can have a top 3 defense with Hughes and Addison as our best edge rushers... That doesn't mean you stop trying to improve. Wallace was a weak link. They made it work with him but with Elam it's going to work a lot better.

[Mat68]

15 hours ago, BobbyC81 said:

Was out for lunch and the big screen TV had ESPN on.  There was an NFL segment and they were debating whether James Cook was a legitimate contender for Offensive Rookie of the Year.  Sound was off and I couldn’t read CC, but I thought it was interesting that anybody would be even having this discussion.

I think he should be.  Very explosive guy.  6 ypc in the SEC.   He has the chance to be an impact rookie.  Buffalo is high on him.  I expect they have a plan for him.  In a high powered offense he will have a role.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

17 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Yes but I meant Cam Lewis........not Lee.

 

OK, that makes more sense then.  So you're asking whether Hamlin and Johnson are better backup safety prospects than Lewis, Griffin, and McCloud?  I would say the answer is "yes", but again - I'm speaking for him as a backup.  I would agree it's not clear either Hamlin or Johnson can hold down the role full time, but then - it never is until a guy gets on the field more.

Lewis, Griffin, and McCloud are guys who have yet to prove they can play on the boundary in the NFL or at all as Safety.     McCloud has played 14 snaps in the NFL at CB (for Cincy - no idea how he did).   Griffin hasn't played at all.

 

Both Hamlin and Johnson have seen snaps at safety and played capably.  The  Bills pretty clearly see Lewis, Griffin and McCloud as CB prospects, not safeties.  Griffin and McCloud haven't played

 

17 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

None of the reserve CB's or Safeties has played enough defensive snaps to be proven.

 

That's true

 

17 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

I'd put Lewis and Hamlin on the same level.........Lewis has been the most notable of the backups in the secondary when he has played..........but Hamlin has better measurables for his position.

 

Jaquan Johnson I just don't think has the ability to step in for several games and not be abused.........he's a 4.70 40 guy and has looked like it when he's played.    He's a special teamer.

 

Someone told me (dunno their source) that the Bills are higher on Hamlin than on Johnson, so they may agree with you about Johnson.

 

But the thing is, as a backup safety, Johnson has played about the same amount as Lewis has played as a backup CB.  Both Johnson and Hamlin started and played 100% of the HOU game, which was not a harsh test.  Prior to that, Johnson saw most of his snaps in the final game of the 2019 and 2020 season, where he played well against guys bound for the bus, while Lewis only other game was 2020 TEN as CB across from Josh Norman.  That was a CF across the D.

 

Hamlin has only come in for about 1/3 of a game - where Johnson had started Poyer, so we had 2 backups in at safety.  He did OK.

 

What are you seeing to say Lewis has been "notable" as a DB backup, in a good way?

 

17 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

McCloud's athletic profile is very much like Kaiir Elam.  Similar 4.37 40.......a bit bigger wingspan and hands.   He has nice potential for a zone CB.  He played some defense(briefly) in his 2 games for the Bills last year.

 

Was this preseason?  Because https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/McClNi00/gamelog/2021/ doesn't show any snaps for the Bills last year, and only 14 snaps in 1 game for Cincy (I didn't see that game).

 

Are you trying to construct an argument that McCloud is as good of a boundary corner prospect as Kaiir Elam based on physical measurements?  And if not, what is your point, just that he has good physical measureables?  Agreed, that's why they signed him initially and why they gave him a reserve contract this year.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

15 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

They're going to start playing press man now. They took Elam specifically to make that an option. Your mistake is watching how our secondary was schemed up with Levi Wallace as CB2 and assuming that is the only scheme McDermott and Frazier want to run. I watched Beane speak live yesterday. He openly admitted there were opponents last year that they would have liked to play press man against but lacked the ability at the player level to do it.

 

Elam will NOT be shielded by the system like Wallace was. He will be given some level of coverage help as a rookie but overall they will give him many more one-on-one opportunities than they ever gave Wallace. Elam's ability to play more on an island will open up the overall versatility of the back 7. If you think of a typical good offense where one outside WR is a shifty route runner and the other is a physical mismatch, White will be on an island against the shifty one and Elam will be on an island against the physical mismatch. They will still play primarily zone but Elam won't just be sitting back, letting the WR make the 5 yard catch, then rallying to tackle him. The days of people complaining about Wallace's "soft zone" coverage are over.

 

McDermott and Frazier have "gotten by" with Wallace. I think last year they finally got sick of just "getting by" and ending up in situations like the final 13 seconds where they couldn't trust him to do anything other than give a free release and rally to tackle 20 yards down the field. Replacing Wallace with Elam changed what we're able to do on an entire half of the field.

 

 

Might be worth adding that the Bills played more Man this past season than is generally believed, before White got hurt.

 

I'll go a little further and say - I believe when the Bills defensive Brain Trust analyzed What Went Wrong on defense, they concluded that one of the flaws was that zone secondary scheme, with two guys in Wallace and Jackson who are both excellent off-ball corners but can not play press man effectively or jam receivers at the line without risk of being burnt.

 

The answer to the plaintive fan cry "why are we giving those guys a free release off the line?" is "because that's what we had the player personnel to do, especially after White got hurt". 

 

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing and expecting a different result.  The argument some appear to be making that the Bills shouldn't have used a high draft pick on Elam because they could have just continued to do the same thing (play the same coverage) with late-round players, is pretty much that.

 

 

[Cash]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Might be worth adding that the Bills played more Man this past season than is generally believed, before White got hurt.

 

I'll go a little further and say - I believe when the Bills defensive Brain Trust analyzed What Went Wrong on defense, they concluded that one of the flaws was that zone secondary scheme, with two guys in Wallace and Jackson who are both excellent off-ball corners but can not play press man effectively or jam receivers at the line without risk of being burnt.

 

The answer to the plaintive fan cry "why are we giving those guys a free release off the line?" is "because that's what we had the player personnel to do, especially after Wallace got hurt". 

 

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing and expecting a different result.  The argument some appear to be making that the Bills shouldn't have used a high draft pick on Elam because they could have just continued to do the same thing (play the same coverage) with late-round players, is pretty much that.

 

 

 

Bills were 8th highest in % of man coverage last year.

[Mat68]

20 hours ago, junior said:

 

 

So if the running game is slumping Week 12 because we're forcing Singletary into a 1A/1B situation with Cook, what's the plan for the rest of the season and playoffs? To keep doing it because the tail doesn't wag the dog? Or to stick Singletary as the clear cut #1?

 

Try Cook as the starter and Singletary as the back up.  I expect Cook to have a role and the more he produces the more snaps he gets.  I think Cooks fits the offense perfectly.  I find it hard to believe he wont be successful here.  Cooks still rushed for over 6 yards a carry for his career at Ga in the SEC.  If Singletary and Moss are productive under a volume share maybe they go Cooks and Johnson.  

[Shaw66]

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Might be worth adding that the Bills played more Man this past season than is generally believed, before White got hurt.

 

I'll go a little further and say - I believe when the Bills defensive Brain Trust analyzed What Went Wrong on defense, they concluded that one of the flaws was that zone secondary scheme, with two guys in Wallace and Jackson who are both excellent off-ball corners but can not play press man effectively or jam receivers at the line without risk of being burnt.

 

The answer to the plaintive fan cry "why are we giving those guys a free release off the line?" is "because that's what we had the player personnel to do, especially after Tre White got hurt". 

 

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing and expecting a different result.  The argument some appear to be making that the Bills shouldn't have used a high draft pick on Elam because they could have just continued to do the same thing (play the same coverage) with late-round players, is pretty much that.

 

 

This is excellent!  Thanks.  

 

I do recall that they played a lot of man early in the season, which was viewed generally as some level of confidence in Wallace - Wallace can survive in man against their #2.  He'd even get the #1 occasionally, because White wasn't exclusively on the #1 when they were in man.  Once White went down, if the Bills wanted to be in man, it had to be with Wallace on the #1, because no wanted Jackson to have a steady diet of the #1 guy.  So, they played more zone.

 

Once White gets back, they've solved this problem. Bills will play zone when they want to, and will play man when they want to, because White and Elam will be able to play either way, and at a high level.  By late in the season, Elam should have at least a decent working concept of the zone principles.  

 

But I don't think it had anything to do with What Went Wrong.   I'm sure Frazier and McDermott knew they were hamstrung by this deficiency before they hit the playoffs.  In their week-to-week game planning, they were living with the problem, and that is why they went to more zone.  What Went Wrong was just the painful proof of concept.  

[Shaw66]

10 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Try Cook as the starter and Singletary as the back up.  I expect Cook to have a role and the more he produces the more snaps he gets.  I think Cooks fits the offense perfectly.  I find it hard to believe he wont be successful here.  Cooks still rushed for over 6 yards a carry for his career at Ga in the SEC.  If Singletary and Moss are productive under a volume share maybe they go Cooks and Johnson.  

I agree with this.  I'm falling in love with these draft choices as I read more and more.     What I'm about to say is not intended to say that Cook is/will be as good as Marshall Faulk or Edgerrin James or Thurman Thomas; it's intended just to give examples of the kind of role Cook could play in the offense.   Those three guys all were running backs first and foremost, but they were excellent in the passing game.  They were primary passing threats, not just some back we dump the ball off to.  Teams had to worry about where those guys were in the pass pattern.   Cook could be that kind of guy, a guy who threatens on every play to beat you running or receiving.  

 

Could he be as good as the best?  Well, Faulk and James were high picks, but Thurman went 40th.  It's not always obvious how well players will develop.  (Thurman was great as a sophomore, injured as a junior, and great as a senior.  Barry Sanders couldn't take the starting job from him!  And he got drafted 40th!)

  

Imagine the impact a guy would have on this offense if he could play like Thurman.  

 

So, yeah, if Singletary were unhappy with his load shrinking, the Bills would with Cook and shrink Motor more.    The reason Singletary's load would be shrinking would be because the Cook thing was working.  

[PrimeTime101]

32 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I agree with this.  I'm falling in love with these draft choices as I read more and more.     What I'm about to say is not intended to say that Cook is/will be as good as Marshall Faulk or Edgerrin James or Thurman Thomas; it's intended just to give examples of the kind of role Cook could play in the offense.   Those three guys all were running backs first and foremost, but they were excellent in the passing game.  They were primary passing threats, not just some back we dump the ball off to.  Teams had to worry about where those guys were in the pass pattern.   Cook could be that kind of guy, a guy who threatens on every play to beat you running or receiving.  

 

Could he be as good as the best?  Well, Faulk and James were high picks, but Thurman went 40th.  It's not always obvious how well players will develop.  (Thurman was great as a sophomore, injured as a junior, and great as a senior.  Barry Sanders couldn't take the starting job from him!  And he got drafted 40th!)

  

Imagine the impact a guy would have on this offense if he could play like Thurman.  

 

So, yeah, if Singletary were unhappy with his load shrinking, the Bills would with Cook and shrink Motor more.    The reason Singletary's load would be shrinking would be because the Cook thing was working.  

This thing of Cook being just a 3rd down RB is not really that real in the mid term like after a few games. The dude can go slot... go wide.. runs great wheel and in/out routs and a any RB that can do that with this good of a base can learn even more from a guy like Diggs. Not saying Cook will be thrown out at WR often but the point is running or receiving the ball.. Cook will be a threat to take it every down. 

 

We run a ton of first down quick outs to WR's and TE's. I mean hell you can run a 11 personal package with McKenzie and cook out there and either someone is going to get burned deep or someone is going to get burned off the screen. Options... Endless

 

Just a 3rd down back? sorry I don't see it.  

[Norcalbillsfan]

On 5/2/2022 at 12:26 PM, DapperCam said:

A little bit of a reach in my opinion, and we probably could have gotten a little bit more positional value out of this pick.

 

I think he'll be our 3rd down back if he shows that he can be a good pass blocker. I expect 5 or so runs per game and 3-5 targets (that's about 15% of the offensive plays). I'm thinking screen passes, slants, wheel routes, etc. Singletary will still be the every down back IMO. If he shows he's really dangerous, I could see carries and targets increasing as the year goes on.

 

Singletary is in the last year of his contract, and Cook will be given the chance to take over the #1 role next year.

I wouldnt say it was a reach when I was petrified we were going RB in the 1st, even if it's breece Hall. I think if cook plays to his potential his impact could be more than we think. 

What leads me to believe that is we have a new coordinator, and we went after mckissic hard. What that tells me is beane asked dorsey what he wants for his offense, and it seems like a pass catching specialist was high priority considering we signed Duke and drafted a pass catching RB with speed. Dorsey must have a plan to get RBs involved in the pass game. And as much as we like Singletary pass catching isnt his game, cook is a better pass catcher and route runner day 1 of practice. If cook studies the play book and knows his role (see Matt brieda) I think he has more of an impact than just a simple spell back to Singletary and we see a return on investment for a 2nd rounder.

[Shaw66]

4 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

This thing of Cook being just a 3rd down RB is not really that real in the mid term like after a few games. The dude can go slot... go wide.. runs great wheel and in/out routs and a any RB that can do that with this good of a base can learn even more from a guy like Diggs. Not saying Cook will be thrown out at WR often but the point is running or receiving the ball.. Cook will be a threat to take it every down. 

 

We run a ton of first down quick outs to WR's and TE's. I mean hell you can run a 11 personal package with McKenzie and cook out there and either someone is going to get burned deep or someone is going to get burned off the screen. Options... Endless

 

Just a 3rd down back? sorry I don't see it.  

Now, of course, we're just talking about what he COULD be.  I find my judgment about which college runners have skills that will translate to the pros isn't very good.   But what we're saying is that if he succeeds, it won't as just another running back.  He will add a different dimension to the offense, something that very few teams have.  

 

A guy like that generally only works on a team with a really good offense.  On a weaker offense, you're forced to give the guy the ball too much.   On a good team, a like that has limited touches, but each touch is a big opportunity.  The Bills have a good offense.  If Cook makes it, he'll take the offense to another level. 

 

What am I talking about?  If you want to see the difference an extra dimension can make, imagine the Bills with Drew Brees at QB.   Good offense, right?  I mean, Brees is going to complete just about all the passes the Bills complete already.   But the Bills have Allen, and Allen adds an extra dimension.  He gives his team all the good quarterbacking, plus something most other teams don't have.   Cook could energize the offense another notch in the same way Allen does.  

[Alphadawg7]

I find it puzzling seeing so many people already trying to limit the ceiling of Cook.  This kid in our offense has a lot of upside and potential.

 

Labeling him just a 3rd down back is so short changing this kids potential.  He has a lot more potential than just that, and I think he will be used along side Devin a lot like how Kamara is used for the Saints when he was running with Ingram.  

Edited May 3, 2022 by Alphadawg7

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Cash said:

 

Bills were 8th highest in % of man coverage last year.

 

Thanks.  Do you know where I can find that data?

 

I'm going to guess, if data on % of man game by game were available, we might find it was even higher prior to White's injury and fell off afterwards.

 

10 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I find it puzzling seeing so many people already trying to limit the ceiling of Cook.  This kid in our offense has a lot of upside and potential.

 

Labeling him just a 3rd down back is so short changing this kids potential.  He has a lot more potential than just that, and I think he will be used along side Devin a lot like how Kamara is used for the Saints when he was running with Ingram.  

 

I'll put it out there, none of us yet know what his ceiling on the field will be, but I don't think the Bills would have taken him at the bottom of the 2nd if they felt he was a '3rd down back'

[JakeFrommStateFarm]

5 or 6 games into the season, Cook will take over as the starter.

 

He's so much better than Motor "Hands of Stone" Singletary 

[Cash]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Thanks.  Do you know where I can find that data?

 

I'm going to guess, if data on % of man game by game were available, we might find it was even higher prior to White's injury and fell off afterwards.

 

 

I don't, sorry.  Just know it offhand because Joe Buscaglia of The Athletic mentioned it a bunch of times in his draft coverage.  I think he said the Dolphins were first at something like 43-46% and the Bills were 8th at around 34%.

 

I agree with your guess - it's hard to imagine they started playing man-to-man more frequently without Tre.

[Mat68]

With Allen every play can be a pass and probably is.  This isnt 95 and Buffalo is going to line up in pro set on first and second down.  Buffalo will still run heavy 3 wide sets.  Cooks allows Buffalo to move to more spread looks because Cook can run actual routes very well.  Go even further.  Go 2 te with Diggs, Davis, Knox and Howard.  You can run traditional outside or inside zone.  Defense plays 3 linebakers now you can line Cooks outside or in the slot.  The ability to go to so many formations without tipping your hand will create big plays on offense.

[LEBills]

1 hour ago, JakeFrommStateFarm said:

5 or 6 games into the season, Cook will take over as the starter.

 

He's so much better than Motor "Hands of Stone" Singletary 

Chris McCaffrey had just shy of 200 touches (117 rushes, 80 catches) his rookie year. I’d say that is probably what we could expect for Cook

Edited May 3, 2022 by LEBills

[mikemac2001]

19 minutes ago, LEBills said:

Chris McCaffrey had just shy of 200 touches (117 rushes, 80 catches) his rookie year. I’d say that is probably what we could expect for Cook

about 7 Carrie’s and 5 Recs I could see that.

 

id rather keep him fresh he is a weapon that will make this offense extremely difficult to cover - don’t cover the flats he will chew up 7 a pop 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, JakeFrommStateFarm said:

5 or 6 games into the season, Cook will take over as the starter.

 

He's so much better than Motor "Hands of Stone" Singletary 

 

 

1) Motor has become an excellent pass protector.  Maybe Cook will get there, but for now he's gonna have a big adjustment there.

2) Motor was 15th in the league for YPC this season, with 4.6 - behind a poor run blocking OL that saw him tackled in the backfield a fair amount.

Cook says he can do it all, but he'll have to prove he can be productive running between the tackles.