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Posted (edited)

Well that was a strange first round. For the first ten picks it was the most predictable draft in quite some time. Then suddenly it went trade crazy and the trade values were a bit all over the place as well. Let's try and sift through where that leaves us!

 

The Bills Pick

Stop me if you have heard this before but the Bills picked a highly athletic height, weight, speed guy with some impressive physical traits. He was a also a player they hosted for a top 30 visit so in those regards he is very much "their type". Brandon Beane said initially he was the "last 1st round grade" on their board although he did seem to indicate later that there may have been first round grades left just not at positions of need. I am not sure if that is what he meant and none of the media clarified it so I suppose to an extent we are guessing but I think it is fair to say at the very least he was their last 1st round grade on a guy they expect to come in and start right away. They will say all the right things about competing for a spot etc but this is a selection of a guy they fully expect to start week 1. So by my board it was a bit of a reach in that I had him with a 2nd round grade and my 35th overall player. He was also my CB7 but I have said repeatedly throughout the process that I thought there were 7 corners who could come in and be good starters right away as rookies and essentially be day 1 upgrades on what the Bill lost with Levi Wallace going to Pittsburgh - Elam was in that group. I don't hate the trade up as much as some either. Did they maybe get a little played by Baltimore? I suspect so. I remember seeing Jeff Fisher interviewed a few years ago and he said if you don't have someone sticking out on your board and you think a team in the 3 picks behind you is all in on a specific position then you generally call up and ask if they want your pick and give them the impression that if they don't trade you want the position they are thought to need. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. Teams do bite. Maybe it was that, maybe it wasn't but regardless giving up a 4th round pick, which I agree was a lot in the context of trade up value in this first round but was absolutely bang in line with the Jimmy Johnson chart isn't something to get super annoyed about. 

 

As for Elam as a player... my scouting report is basically, you love the length, love the athleticism, love both his closing speed and his recovery speed, and I think he is smart and has good eyes. He isn't easily pump faked or deceived by play action. I have commented multiple times on the fact that the physical limitations of Levi Wallace and Dane Jackson as over achieving 7th round and UDFA types who have to play almost exclusively in off zone really limit what Leslie Frazier can do in terms of coverage on the outside and how aggressive he can get in challenging receivers at the line. There will be no such limitations with Elam. He can play press, he can play off, he can play man, he has experience in multiple coverages. He is dynamic and flexible in his usage. The negatives on his film for me were his tackling which has been much commented on, even by Brandon Beane. That was what really kept me away from linking him to Buffalo. But also I find his transitions a bit mechanical (just seen the end of the Beane presser and he mentions this too as an area that still needs work) which is odd because he has good hips but it is almost as if his hips go and then he has to take a moment to make sure his feet are following and I think sometimes because of that he comes out of his transitions giving up leverage and rather than just trust his athleticism to get back into position he gets a bit grabby. He will need to clean that up in the NFL or else he will get flagged. So all in all I think this is a high ceiling guy, a talented athlete, who needs some coaching and development... but if there is a position where I totally trust Sean McDermott and Leslie Frazier to develop players it is defensive back. It's more of a B grade selection than an A grade selection for me but the way the board fell I totally understand the thinking. 

 

My Mock

I had a personal best!! My final mock had 27 of the 32 players that ended up in round one. The guys I missed on were the aforementioned Elam, Tyler Linderbaum, Quay Walker, Daxton Hill (who I took out right at the very last second and I had him in the right spot too so frustrating) and then the strangest of them all - Cole Strange. I have had 26/32 twice before, but only had 23 last year and my average is about 24. 

I only had 4 exact matches of player and team (down from 6 last year) and they were 4 of the top 6.

I did have a further 10 team and position but wrong player matches up from 8 last year. You could even say 11 because basically the Cardinals took a receiver - Hollywood Brown - with their pick. I will find the scoring system @eball drew my attention to a few weeks ago at some point and score this year's effort, but despite only 4 exact matches I was pretty pleased with it. 

 

Player(s) I was high on...

So Andrew Booth is my #4 overall player and is obviously sticking out on my board at this point. That said, he hasn't slid for football reasons, he would be long gone but for the medical flags. Similarly I had Jermaine Johnson in the top 10 and he got all the way to #26 which was largely due to off-field rather than on-field. I suppose the guy I am most surprised is still sitting there is Malik Willis. He is my QB1 and while I had heard from multiple in the know draft twitter types that Kenny Pickett was going to be the 1st QB off the board I am slightly surprised Malik didn't find a way to sneak into the back of the round. I don't see him lasting too long tonight. The Washington Commanders is interesting to me, as are the New York Giants and the Seattle Seahawks. Speaking of Seattle where is @FFadpecr? I will never criticise someone for having a strong (see what I did there?) opinion but he was basically completely unwilling to listen to any argument that the Seattle Seahawks were not going to draft Carson Strong at #9 overall. If you are gonna go in that strong you need to come back and eat crow when you miss. 

 

Player I was down on...

So two guys with third round grades by my board went last night. I think Cole Strange is one case because the whole league basically just didn't have him that high, but New England did. The other Quay Walker is the guy who I was just lower on. I don't think many people had him as a true 1st or going as high as #22 but a lot of people did at least have a second round grade on him. He was a high 3rd for me. I just don't see any special. Think he gets lost in traffic too much for a big guy and for someone with decent size and speed I don't think he has the range as a sideline to sideline 'backer in coverage. 

 

Biggest shock of the night

Easy one for me this - the Tennessee Titans trading AJ Brown. I get it he wants paying, but you just willingly traded away you team's best offensive weapon (yes, I'd take Brown over Henry). Your Quarterback is Ryan Tannehill, that's a guy who needs pieces around him rather than being able to make it all happen himself. I like Treylon Burks more than most so I understand the pick but unless they are about to have a mini reset in Tennessee why would you willingly go from a proven NFL top 10 NFL receiver AJ Brown to a raw rookie with the potential to maybe be AJ Brown? Philly are paying him $25m AAV. It isn't like he wanted to re-set the market. He goes into the Stef Diggs financial tier not the Hopkins, Adams, Hill tier. He is EASILY worth that. I don't get it. 

 

Worst Pick

This year the John Schneider Award does not go to John Schneider. Good job Seattle. Charles Cross is going to be a hell of a player. Ironic that you trade Russ then use that pick to finally land a legit left tackle. I've already mentioned the two 3rd round grades off my board that went. Let's finish with Green Bay first. It was a typical, stubborn, Green Bay Packers first round. Desperate for a receiver... teams start moving up to take them. You have two firsts, two seconds, a third and two fourths. You have the ammunition to get involved and make that move up...... instead they sit at #22 miss the top 6 receivers and AJ Brown and Hollywood Brown on the trade market and then take a reached for middle linebacker and a defensive tackle. I will at least say Devante Wyatt is a penetrator rather than a space eater so that wins them some favour and he was good value at #28. But when people rag on the Jordan Love pick I always say they are focused in the wrong place. When you have an old QB you always take the shot if you think a guy can be a franchise guy. They might have got the pick wrong but the strategy there is totally defensible. What is not totally defensible is continuing to spend high value draft picks, year after year, on defense in rounds 1 and 2 while Aaron's offensive line crumbles and his receivers all move on. And it isn't even like it has been all edge rushers and corners... since drafting Aaron in 2005 they have taken 3 first round linebackers, 3 first round safeties and now 4 first round defensive tackles. The theory of premium position must not have reached Wisconsin yet. 

 

On to New England. Sean McVay has probably said it better than I could. 3rd or 4th round developmental interior OL who could compete for a job as a rookie and then be expected to be a starter by year 2 - Cole Strange would absolutely make sense. Even a team taking a shot in the late 2nd would make sense - providing they run the right type of scheme for him.... and here's what makes it odder.... to my eye the Patriots don't. Strange really struggled in Mobile at the Senior Bowl holding up against big powerful interior defensive linemen. I think his fit in the NFL is a stretch zone scheme where you use him quick feet and mobility and get him pulling on the edge a lot. That isn't the Pats who want to do a lot of gap runs and while they do some trap block stuff are much more about power running inside. So in every possible way I don't get it. New England has a famously small draft board, but if he was truly their BPA or anything close I'd be stunned. They traded away one of the best half a dozen guards in football for a 5th round pick..... to reach for a 3rd round talent at the end of round 1. Baffled. 

 

And finally, I can't go without a mention for the Jacksonville Jaguars. No way that Travon Walker should ever be a #1 overall pick in my eyes. I had him as a high second round grade and my 31st overall player. When you draft a defensive lineman 1st overall and the NFL Network panel immediately start telling you how good he is against the run then you know you've screwed up. I think he can be a good NFL player but he is never going to be an elite pass rusher for my money. 

 

Big Board Check

So after all that what is left as we head into day two? Here is the top 15 best available by my big board:

Remember * denotes medical concern, ^ denotes off-field / behavioural concern.

 

1. Andrew Booth*, CB, Clemson

2. Nakobe Dean, LB, Georgia

3. David Ojabo*, Edge, Michigan

4. Kyler Gordon, CB, Washington

5. Christian Watson, WR, North Dakota State

6. Roger McCreary, CB, Auburn

7. Cam Thomas, DE, San Diego State

8. Malik Willis, QB, Liberty

9. Bernhard Raimann, OT, Central Michigan

10. Boye Mafe, DE, Minnesota

11. George Pickens^, WR, Georgia

12. DeMarvin Leal, DT, Texas A&M

13. Jalen Tolbert, WR, South Alabama

14. Chad Muma, LB, Wyoming

15. Kenneth Walker, RB, Michigan State

 

 

That's a wrap on day 1, roll on day 2! As ever, agree, disagree, comment and discuss!

Edited by GunnerBill
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Posted

I almost died laughing at NE drafting a round 3 or 4 guard considering they traded one starter and let another walk in FA and the track record of Belichick basically plugging and playing 5th round and lower players in those positions with little drop off.

 

Especially considering his defense didn't force a punt against the Bills in more than 2 games and the only reason any of the last 4 games was close was due to 70 mph winds. Some defensive speed wasn't a priority?  Does he think a guard is going to help close the gap on 30+ point beat downs?

Posted

Nice closure to day ones activities, thanks for the quality read, oh, and nice success rate on first rounders.  I suspect Beane is gonna go Offense in rd 2, but what the hell do I know about team building 😁

 

Go Bills!!!

Posted

Thanks, @GunnerBill.  I am always amazed at your knowledge and the thought put into your scouting.  Maybe you missed your calling? 🙂

 

I have a question for you.  The Bills currently very close to being Super Bowl winners.  Tre is recovering from injury himself.  With that in mind, would you choose Elam for this team at this time, even though he may not be the better player in the long run?  Or would you choose Booth, who may be better in the long run, but may not contribute to this team as much this year due to injury concerns? 

 

I don't know the extent of Booth's injury concerns, or the recovery progress of Tre, but I just wondered if you would give up a player with a higher long-term ceiling for a player of Elam's abilities who can contribute immediately to this team, where they are right now?

Posted
3 minutes ago, eball said:

@GunnerBill I don’t recall your RB rankings but obviously you have Walker ahead of Hall.  Reason?  Do you think one of the two will be there when the Bills pick?

 

Yes. Only just ahead but I do. Hall is my 19th BPA, Walker my 15th. A single point between them on my grading scale. I think Walker is a more decisive and dynamic runner and while they ran basically the same time at the combine in pads the difference looks more obvious to me. Walker is faster. I've seen Matt Forte as the Breece Hall comp and I think that is a good one, I think Walker is a slightly slower CJ2K. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, RangerDave said:

Thanks, @GunnerBill.  I am always amazed at your knowledge and the thought put into your scouting.  Maybe you missed your calling? 🙂

 

I have a question for you.  The Bills currently very close to being Super Bowl winners.  Tre is recovering from injury himself.  With that in mind, would you choose Elam for this team at this time, even though he may not be the better player in the long run?  Or would you choose Booth, who may be better in the long run, but may not contribute to this team as much this year due to injury concerns? 

 

I don't know the extent of Booth's injury concerns, or the recovery progress of Tre, but I just wondered if you would give up a player with a higher long-term ceiling for a player of Elam's abilities who can contribute immediately to this team, where they are right now?

 

Hard to answer without knowing the true extent of the medicals with Booth. But as I understand it the situation is kind of the other way around. He should be fine to play this year, he had hernia surgery but that shouldn't keep him off the field and I think in terms of day 1 ability he could well be better as a rookie. The medical issues that have caused the fall to my knowledge are more the long term type regarding a neck and a chronic knee condition. At some point he becomes worth the risk but teams seem agreed that was not day 1. Go look at Trey Smith as a rookie for the Chiefs last year though... sure bet there are teams wishing they'd taken a shot before he got to round 6. I expect Booth will go this evening. Elam you hope will not only contribute as a starter early, but also potentially be another draft, develop re-sign guy. 

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Posted

Hey Gunner, what’s your take on Justyn Ross? I remember watching him a few years back as a freshman with Trevor Lawrence throwing him the ball and thought this kid is going to be a top ten pick in two years. He kind of fell off the face of the earth after that with multiple medical issues I believe. Do you still have him on your draft board? 

Posted
Just now, Bills Juggernaut said:

Hey Gunner, what’s your take on Justyn Ross? I remember watching him a few years back as a freshman with Trevor Lawrence throwing him the ball and thought this kid is going to be a top ten pick in two years. He kind of fell off the face of the earth after that with multiple medical issues I believe. Do you still have him on your draft board? 

 

Yep. My 46th best remaining. Mid 3rd round grade. If we don't go receiver round 2 I'd be very high on him as a potential 3rd round pick. 

Posted

This is going to be a much more interesting round for the Bills. Filled their biggest and most obvious hole in R1, so there are multiple possibilities here.  If 2-3 QBs go in the next 24 picks, there will be some very good players available (there will be anyway).  I think there will be another run on the tier-2 WRs and CBs, so it's quite possible the top RBs and TEs are there.  Then there are LBs and Safeties.  I think the only thing that is certain is there will be a lot of teeth gnashing on TBD after the pick...

Posted
4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Well that was a strange first round. For the first ten picks it was the most predictable draft in quite some time. Then suddenly it went trade crazy and the trade values were a bit all over the place as well. Let's try and sift through where that leaves us!

 

The Bills Pick

Stop me if you have heard this before but the Bills picked a highly athletic height, weight, speed guy with some impressive physical traits. He was a also a player they hosted for a top 30 visit so in those regards he is very much "their type". Brandon Beane said initially he was the "last 1st round grade" on their board although he did seem to indicate later that there may have been first round grades left just not at positions of need. I am not sure if that is what he meant and none of the media clarified it so I suppose to an extent we are guessing but I think it is fair to say at the very least he was their last 1st round grade on a guy they expect to come in and start right away. They will say all the right things about competing for a spot etc but this is a selection of a guy they fully expect to start week 1. So by my board it was a bit of a reach in that I had him with a 2nd round grade and my 35th overall player. He was also my CB7 but I have said repeatedly throughout the process that I thought there were 7 corners who could come in and be good starters right away as rookies and essentially be day 1 upgrades on what the Bill lost with Levi Wallace going to Pittsburgh - Elam was in that group. I don't hate the trade up as much as some either. Did they maybe get a little played by Baltimore? I suspect so. I remember seeing Jeff Fisher interviewed a few years ago and he said if you don't have someone sticking out on your board and you think a team in the 3 picks behind you is all in on a specific position then you generally call up and ask if they want your pick and give them the impression that if they don't trade you want the position they are thought to need. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. Teams do bite. Maybe it was that, maybe it wasn't but regardless giving up a 4th round pick, which I agree was a lot in the context of trade up value in this first round but was absolutely bang in line with the Jimmy Johnson chart isn't something to get super annoyed about. 

 

As for Elam as a player... my scouting report is basically, you love the length, love the athleticism, love both his closing speed and his recovery speed, and I think he is smart and has good eyes. He isn't easily pump faked or deceived by play action. I have commented multiple times on the fact that the physical limitations of Levi Wallace and Dane Jackson as over achieving 7th round and UDFA types who have to play almost exclusively in off zone really limit what Leslie Frazier can do in terms of coverage on the outside and how aggressive he can get in challenging receivers at the line. There will be no such limitations with Elam. He can play press, he can play off, he can play man, he has experience in multiple coverages. He is dynamic and flexible in his usage. The negatives on his film for me were his tackling which has been much commented on, even by Brandon Beane. That was what really kept me away from linking him to Buffalo. But also I find his transitions a bit mechanical (just seen the end of the Beane presser and he mentions this too as an area that still needs work) which is odd because he has good hips but it is almost as if his hips go and then he has to take a moment to make sure his feet are following and I think sometimes because of that he comes out of his transitions giving up leverage and rather than just trust his athleticism to get back into position he gets a bit grabby. He will need to clean that up in the NFL or else he will get flagged. So all in all I think this is a high ceiling guy, a talented athlete, who needs some coaching and development... but if there is a position where I totally trust Sean McDermott and Leslie Frazier to develop players it is defensive back. It's more of a B grade selection than an A grade selection for me but the way the board fell I totally understand the thinking. 

 

My Mock

I had a personal best!! My final mock had 27 of the 32 players that ended up in round one. The guys I missed on were the aforementioned Elam, Tyler Linderbaum, Quay Walker, Daxton Hill (who I took out right at the very last second and I had him in the right spot too so frustrating) and then the strangest of them all - Cole Strange. I have had 26/32 twice before, but only had 23 last year and my average is about 24. 

I only had 4 exact matches of player and team (down from 6 last year) and they were 4 of the top 6.

I did have a further 10 team and position but wrong player matches up from 8 last year. You could even say 11 because basically the Cardinals took a receiver - Hollywood Brown - with their pick. I will find the scoring system @eball drew my attention to a few weeks ago at some point and score this year's effort, but despite only 4 exact matches I was pretty pleased with it. 

 

Player(s) I was high on...

So Andrew Booth is my #4 overall player and is obviously sticking out on my board at this point. That said, he hasn't slid for football reasons, he would be long gone but for the medical flags. Similarly I had Jermaine Johnson in the top 10 and he got all the way to #26 which was largely due to off-field rather than on-field. I suppose the guy I am most surprised is still sitting there is Malik Willis. He is my QB1 and while I had heard from multiple in the know draft twitter types that Kenny Pickett was going to be the 1st QB off the board I am slightly surprised Malik didn't find a way to sneak into the back of the round. I don't see him lasting too long tonight. The Washington Commanders is interesting to me, as are the New York Giants and the Seattle Seahawks. Speaking of Seattle where is @FFadpecr? I will never criticise someone for having a strong (see what I did there?) opinion but he was basically completely unwilling to listen to any argument that the Seattle Seahawks were not going to draft Carson Strong at #9 overall. If you are gonna go in that strong you need to come back and eat crow when you miss. 

 

Player I was down on...

So two guys with third round grades by my board went last night. I think Cole Strange is one case because the whole league basically just didn't have him that high, but New England did. The other Quay Walker is the guy who I was just lower on. I don't think many people had him as a true 1st or going as high as #22 but a lot of people did at least have a second round grade on him. He was a high 3rd for me. I just don't see any special. Think he gets lost in traffic too much for a big guy and for someone with decent size and speed I don't think he has the range as a sideline to sideline 'backer in coverage. 

 

Biggest shock of the night

Easy one for me this - the Tennessee Titans trading AJ Brown. I get it he wants paying, but you just willingly traded away you team's best offensive weapon (yes, I'd take Brown over Henry). Your Quarterback is Ryan Tannehill, that's a guy who needs pieces around him rather than being able to make it all happen himself. I like Treylon Burks more than most so I understand the pick but unless they are about to have a mini reset in Tennessee why would you willingly go from a proven NFL top 10 NFL receiver AJ Brown to a raw rookie with the potential to maybe be AJ Brown? Philly are paying him $25m AAV. It isn't like he wanted to re-set the market. He goes into the Stef Diggs financial tier not the Hopkins, Adams, Hill tier. He is EASILY worth that. I don't get it. 

 

Worst Pick

This year the John Schneider Award does not go to John Schneider. Good job Seattle. Charles Cross is going to be a hell of a player. Ironic that you trade Russ then use that pick to finally land a legit left tackle. I've already mentioned the two 3rd round grades off my board that went. Let's finish with Green Bay first. It was a typical, stubborn, Green Bay Packers first round. Desperate for a receiver... teams start moving up to take them. You have two firsts, two seconds, a third and two fourths. You have the ammunition to get involved and make that move up...... instead they sit at #22 miss the top 6 receivers and AJ Brown and Hollywood Brown on the trade market and then take a reached for middle linebacker and a defensive tackle. I will at least say Devante Wyatt is a penetrator rather than a space eater so that wins them some favour and he was good value at #28. But when people rag on the Jordan Love pick I always say they are focused in the wrong place. When you have an old QB you always take the shot if you think a guy can be a franchise guy. They might have got the pick wrong but the strategy there is totally defensible. What is not totally defensible is continuing to spend high value draft picks, year after year, on defense in rounds 1 and 2 while Aaron's offensive line crumbles and his receivers all move on. And it isn't even like it has been all edge rushers and corners... since drafting Aaron in 2005 they have taken 3 first round linebackers, 3 first round safeties and now 4 first round defensive tackles. The theory of premium position must not have reached Wisconsin yet. 

 

On to New England. Sean McVay has probably said it better than I could. 3rd or 4th round developmental interior OL who could compete for a job as a rookie and then be expected to be a starter by year 2 - Cole Strange would absolutely make sense. Even a team taking a shot in the late 2nd would make sense - providing they run the right type of scheme for him.... and here's what makes it odder.... to my eye the Patriots don't. Strange really struggled in Mobile at the Senior Bowl holding up against big powerful interior defensive linemen. I think his fit in the NFL is a stretch zone scheme where you use him quick feet and mobility and get him pulling on the edge a lot. That isn't the Pats who want to do a lot of gap runs and while they do some trap block stuff are much more about power running inside. So in every possible way I don't get it. New England has a famously small draft board, but if he was truly their BPA or anything close I'd be stunned. They traded away one of the best half a dozen guards in football for a 5th round pick..... to reach for a 3rd round talent at the end of round 1. Baffled. 

 

And finally, I can't go without a mention for the Jacksonville Jaguars. No way that Travon Walker should ever be a #1 overall pick in my eyes. I had him as a high second round grade and my 31st overall player. When you draft a defensive lineman 1st overall and the NFL Network panel immediately start telling you how good he is against the run then you know you've screwed up. I think he can be a good NFL player but he is never going to be an elite pass rusher for my money. 

 

Big Board Check

So after all that what is left as we head into day two? Here is the top 15 best available by my big board:

Remember * denotes medical concern, ^ denotes off-field / behavioural concern.

 

1. Andrew Booth*, CB, Clemson

2. Nakobe Dean, LB, Georgia

3. David Ojabo*, Edge, Michigan

4. Kyler Gordon, CB, Washington

5. Christian Watson, WR, North Dakota State

6. Roger McCreary, CB, Auburn

7. Cam Thomas, DE, San Diego State

8. Malik Willis, QB, Liberty

9. Bernhard Raimann, OT, Central Michigan

10. Boye Mafe, DE, Minnesota

11. George Pickens^, WR, Georgia

12. DeMarvin Leal, DT, Texas A&M

13. Jalen Tolbert, WR, South Alabama

14. Chad Muma, LB, Wyoming

15. Kenneth Walker, RB, Michigan State

 

 

That's a wrap on day 1, roll on day 2! As ever, agree, disagree, comment and discuss!

Excellent work and summary and Congrats on hitting on all those players!  I really appreciated your objectivity in discussing the Bills pick, Elam.  I think his flaws are correctable and the kid impresses as someone who is willing to put in the work to perfect his technique.  I really loved how well he did against stiff competition, particularly Jamison Williams.  Cincinnati played Alabama in one of the championship games.  Do you know how Sauce fared against Williams?

Posted
6 minutes ago, jkeerie said:

Excellent work and summary and Congrats on hitting on all those players!  I really appreciated your objectivity in discussing the Bills pick, Elam.  I think his flaws are correctable and the kid impresses as someone who is willing to put in the work to perfect his technique.  I really loved how well he did against stiff competition, particularly Jamison Williams.  Cincinnati played Alabama in one of the championship games.  Do you know how Sauce fared against Williams?

 

Sauce gave up 1 catch for minus 2 yards v Williams. On only 2 targets. Which tells its own story. 

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Posted
Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

Sauce gave up 1 catch for minus 2 yards v Williams. On only 2 targets. Which tells its own story. 

Didn't Williams get injured in that game as well?

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