RD 1, Pick 23: CB Kaiir Elam, Florida

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, NewEra said:

And had more than a handful of “no arm tackles” where he just dove into their legs with his shoulders, hoping they’d go down. 

While that definitely scares, I think the coaches will change that.  He’ll be called out and embarrassed. He seems like an alpha and alphas don’t want to be “soft”.  Cj henderson taught him how to be soft and it got him to the league.  Now it’s up to our coaches and Kaiir to make sure he doesn’t play like Henderson in the league.  
 

what scares me most after watching a bunch of tape is his grabby nature.  He did it a LOT.  Called for 7 penalties but probably got away with 30 others.  He reminds me of Carlton Davis with his hands.  He can be a nuisance…..as long as the ref allow him to be

 

@BarleyNY was right about the grabbing its early in routes rather than downfield and it ia because of his transitions. Normally that is players with stiff hips but Elam has nice fluid hips his feet just don't always seem to follow them and he gives up leverage as a result and then he grabs. It isn't just us saying it either. Beane referred to his transitions as an area for improvement towards the end of the post round 1 presser. I think it is likely coachable. But that worries me more than the tackling and it is why I had him as a high 2nd rather than a 1st. While I thought the tackling was likely to make the Bills wary I actually place relatively modest value on it for a corner. Cover first. If you can tackle well after, great. 

Edited May 6, 2022 by GunnerBill

[HappyDays]

7 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

All of the investment in pass rush and now the "traits" add at CB are basically the Bills trying to create a defense, on paper at least, that doesn't have any inherent vulnerability.

 

Whether that degree of effort/investment is worthwhile at the expense of offensive investment is questionable.   

 

I think what they determined is that any problems with the offense last year were tied more to coaching and preparation than talent; whereas on defense any problems were because of talent deficiencies. You can argue with that if you want - the offensive line had some talent issues early in the year - but I tend to agree with that judgment. The offense was practically able to score at will in the playoffs, as long as it ran through Josh Allen. The defense on the other hand showed real vulnerabilities in the front 4 and CB2 spot which scheme alone could only cover up so much. The addition of Von Miller and Kaiir Elam may eliminate those vulnerabilities entirely. On offense the most important development would be Spencer Brown progressing in his sophomore season. As long as that happens there really isn't a weakness on that side of the ball.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

I think what they determined is that any problems with the offense last year were tied more to coaching and preparation than talent; whereas on defense any problems were because of talent deficiencies. You can argue with that if you want - the offensive line had some talent issues early in the year - but I tend to agree with that judgment. The offense was practically able to score at will in the playoffs, as long as it ran through Josh Allen. The defense on the other hand showed real vulnerabilities in the front 4 and CB2 spot which scheme alone could only cover up so much. The addition of Von Miller and Kaiir Elam may eliminate those vulnerabilities entirely. On offense the most important development would be Spencer Brown progressing in his sophomore season. As long as that happens there really isn't a weakness on that side of the ball.

 

Personally I think the offense was lack of talent on the oline first and foremost and while I expect it to be better, I am not convinced they have done enough.

[HappyDays]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Personally I think the offense was lack of talent on the oline first and foremost and while I expect it to be better, I am not convinced they have done enough.

 

They have a higher opinion of Saffold than you do. At the very least we can agree he will be an upgrade on Darryl Williams' mail-in performance last year. I assume Dawkins will pick up where he left off, Bates will be a stable fixture on the line, Morse will be his usual self. The only real question mark is Spencer Brown and I think there is reason to be optimistic. Worst case scenario they will have Quessenberry take his spot. Anyone they added on the OL would have been future depth if anything.

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

They have a higher opinion of Saffold than you do. At the very least we can agree he will be an upgrade on Darryl Williams' mail-in performance last year. I assume Dawkins will pick up where he left off, Bates will be a stable fixture on the line, Morse will be his usual self. The only real question mark is Spencer Brown and I think there is reason to be optimistic. Worst case scenario they will have Quessenberry take his spot. Anyone they added on the OL would have been future depth if anything.

 

They do. They had a higher opinion of Feliciano too. 

[BADOLBILZ]

58 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Although I find this post interesting and a good discussion of the pass defense, the bolded portion is completely wrong. McDermott lives by disguise; getting Elam will increase the amount of disguise they can use, because offenses won't be able to force them into zone coverages, as happened last year when the Bills simply couldn't match up in man coverage.   

 

McDermott's defense is predicated on disguise and confusion, and that won't change. 

 

I didn't say they were planning to use less disguise.

 

As discussed..........they have played well in man coverage.........your "couldn't match up in man coverage" is technically false.........they were the top defense in the NFL.

 

The issue against KC the past two years has been an inability to get pass rush.

 

As I've said...........doesn't matter who is playing CB if the QB has 6 seconds to throw to an elite group of receiving talent.

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

49 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

At the very least we can agree he will be an upgrade on Darryl Williams' mail-in performance last year.

 

 

"At the very least"?

 

 

 

Rodger Saffold is 5 years older than DW and missed 300+ snaps while battling a chronic shoulder injury in 2021........about 5 full games worth.

 

Williams played 98% of Bills snaps with OG and OT versatility that Saffold doesn't have.    PFF had thier performances graded about the same.

 

The at the very least is "at the very least Aaron Kromer liked him".

 

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Personally I think the offense was lack of talent on the oline first and foremost and while I expect it to be better, I am not convinced they have done enough.

 

 

This.

 

Except I would say talent/skill.    Spencer Brown had talent.   Skill not so much.   Dion Dawkins had talent but his skill was diminished by illness.    Mitch Morse has talent but the system wasn't helping him.    Daryl Williams had proven talent but he appeared to come into the season inexcusably out of shape/unprepared.

 

Cody Ford,  Ike Boettger and Jon Feliciano were definitely fighting an uphill battle against a lack of talent though.

 

As for @HappyDays take about the organization "determining" that any issue with the offense was just coaching and preparation.  There is a distinction between  determining something or just deciding it.    Determine by definition indicates that there is no doubt.        

Edited May 6, 2022 by BADOLBILZ

[BarleyNY]

7 hours ago, NewEra said:

And had more than a handful of “no arm tackles” where he just dove into their legs with his shoulders, hoping they’d go down. 

While that definitely scares, I think the coaches will change that.  He’ll be called out and embarrassed. He seems like an alpha and alphas don’t want to be “soft”.  Cj henderson taught him how to be soft and it got him to the league.  Now it’s up to our coaches and Kaiir to make sure he doesn’t play like Henderson in the league.  
 

what scares me most after watching a bunch of tape is his grabby nature.  He did it a LOT.  Called for 7 penalties but probably got away with 30 others.  He reminds me of Carlton Davis with his hands.  He can be a nuisance…..as long as the ref allow him to be

Yeah.  I don’t get the not tackling thing.  He doesn’t shy away from being physical when the WRs are on their routes, but he looks like he went to Deion Sanders’ CB school where he told CBS that not tackling lengthens their careers.  Just zero interest in hitting a player with the ball.

 

Two things always worry me about CBs - the ones that have to grab WRs to cover and the ones that avoid tackling.  He has shown both.  But he also has talent. I guess we have to see what he does now. 

[NewEra]

2 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Yeah.  I don’t get the not tackling thing.  He doesn’t shy away from being physical when the WRs are on their routes, but he looks like he went to Deion Sanders’ CB school where he told CBS that not tackling lengthens their careers.  Just zero interest in hitting a player with the ball.

 

Two things always worry me about CBs - the ones that have to grab WRs to cover and the ones that avoid tackling.  He has shown both.  But he also has talent. I guess we have to see what he does now. 

This is why i had preferred Booth, Gordon and Hill.  All 3 physical tacklers.  But you can’t teach height, speed, length and one’s heart.  It’s on the coaches to mold him into what they want.

[BarleyNY]

11 hours ago, NewEra said:

This is why i had preferred Booth, Gordon and Hill.  All 3 physical tacklers.  But you can’t teach height, speed, length and one’s heart.  It’s on the coaches to mold him into what they want.

Yup.  No choice now but to hope for that. 

Edited May 7, 2022 by BarleyNY

[Richard Noggin]

3 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

They have a higher opinion of Saffold than you do. At the very least we can agree he will be an upgrade on Darryl Williams' mail-in performance last year. I assume Dawkins will pick up where he left off, Bates will be a stable fixture on the line, Morse will be his usual self. The only real question mark is Spencer Brown and I think there is reason to be optimistic. Worst case scenario they will have Quessenberry take his spot. Anyone they added on the OL would have been future depth if anything.

 

The bolded might make sense if we only look at a 2021 game or two when Williams struggled mightily at TACKLE. We all remember the replay of him not even coming out of his stance as the DE (I cannot place the exact game/situation as I type this...and on the internet I still like to look as smart or stupid as I'd be in person) tore past him. I suspect there are some unseen contributions (injury, if I recall?) to that REALLY bad look. Overall, though, his performance at GUARD was at least replacement level, if not better. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

23 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

The bolded might make sense if we only look at a 2021 game or two when Williams struggled mightily at TACKLE. We all remember the replay of him not even coming out of his stance as the DE (I cannot place the exact game/situation as I type this...and on the internet I still like to look as smart or stupid as I'd be in person) tore past him. I suspect there are some unseen contributions (injury, if I recall?) to that REALLY bad look. Overall, though, his performance at GUARD was at least replacement level, if not better. 

 

TBH when you  get a play where an OLman doesn't come out of his stance, it's typically  IMO a communication breakdown where he didn't get the snap count, and there are lots of places where the communication can break down.

 

I could be wrong, maybe someone has PFF's take on it, but I thought at guard Williams was decent in pass protection and couldn't get 'er done in the run game.

 

That's sort of the Anti-Saffold where he was all-pro level in the run game and struggled in pass protection.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

21 hours ago, Doc said:

I wouldn’t say that just because the Bills didn’t take a WR at 23, that they didn’t invest in offense. Maybe some are short-term investments, but they’re investments just the same. 

Did the Bills sign FA on offense and use draft picks on offense, sure

 

But it’s like 2 brothers where parents give one a Rolex and one a Timex.  They both were given watches, but the investment is a little different between the two

[Doc]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Did the Bills sign FA on offense and use draft picks on offense, sure

 

But it’s like 2 brothers where parents give one a Rolex and one a Timex.  They both were given watches, but the investment is a little different between the two

 

The one brother needs the Rolex because he's always running 13 seconds behind...

[Blank Stare]

15 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Personally I think the offense was lack of talent on the oline first and foremost and while I expect it to be better, I am not convinced they have done enough.

This is not encouraging:

 

 

[HappyDays]

18 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Williams played 98% of Bills snaps with OG and OT versatility that Saffold doesn't have.    PFF had thier performances graded about the same.

 

Maybe PFF will pay Williams the vet minimum to come play for them. So far no NFL team has been willing. My read on the situation is that he got paid for the first time in his career and got lazy.

[Blank Stare]

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

Seems about right… I mean what do people expect? They added Saffold, a guy who struggles in pass protection and did nothing else… A somewhat below average offensive line in pass protection sounds about right this season…. There are going to be several game where I expect Josh is going to have to bail out it’s bad play yet again.

 

Yeah, I don’t disagree. Would’ve liked to see them strengthen the line a bit more than they did. The line was pretty rough a good chunk of last year.
 

That said, I do think this chart is being a little tough on our tackles. Not so much Spencer Brown since he still has a lot to prove, but more so Dawkins. Sure, he had a mediocre year up until after his second stint with Covid and coming back during that second Cheaters game. I thought he was pretty damn good from that point on. I also think before the early part of last year that Dawkins has been pretty good for us year over year too.
 

This projection seems to ignore that otherwise solid production in previous years as well as any recency bias with his strong play to close out last year. I’d have to know what goes into this projection, but odd that it seems to not give him much credit for a solid career overall here. I guess I would’ve expected the tackles rated in the mid-to-high 60s. I guess not far off, but a little harsh to me. Guard and center ratings look reasonable. 

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Maybe PFF will pay Williams the vet minimum to come play for them. So far no NFL team has been willing. My read on the situation is that he got paid for the first time in his career and got lazy.

 

 

Yeah, I suspect Williams didn't do the work in the offseason to repeat his stellar 2020 season.   He played better in the second half of the season,  which supports that belief.  

 

I suspect Saffold would have been in the exact same boat as Williams as a UDFA had Beane not thrown him that generous life preserver.   There was no bidding war.   He wanted to play with Kromer and somehow his agent got a $6M deal from Beane thisquick.  He was paid quite handsomely for a 35 year old OG that his last team wanted to move on from after a season where he looked to be in notable decline both in performance and availability.   If he isn't any better in Buffalo than he was in TN last year and is still coming out of every game injured for a couple series then expect the boo birds to be out on him.  

 

Our hope is that his shoulder heals and their strength and conditioning team can coax one last season out of him.    Of course we were told that Emmanuel Sanders definitely would have one left in him.......and that playing with Josh Allen for 17 games instead of the combination of tired Drew Brees and his injury replacements that Sanders would finish on a higher note than his 2020 season.   But nope.   That turkey was cooked in October and cold cuts by Thanksgiving.

[John from Riverside]

6 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah, I suspect Williams didn't do the work in the offseason to repeat his stellar 2020 season.   He played better in the second half of the season,  which supports that belief.  

 

I suspect Saffold would have been in the exact same boat as Williams as a UDFA had Beane not thrown him that generous life preserver.   There was no bidding war.   He wanted to play with Kromer and somehow his agent got a $6M deal from Beane thisquick.  He was paid quite handsomely for a 35 year old OG that his last team wanted to move on from after a season where he looked to be in notable decline both in performance and availability.   If he isn't any better in Buffalo than he was in TN last year and is still coming out of every game injured for a couple series then expect the boo birds to be out on him.  

 

Our hope is that his shoulder heals and their strength and conditioning team can coax one last season out of him.    Of course we were told that Emmanuel Sanders definitely would have one left in him.......and that playing with Josh Allen for 17 games instead of the combination of tired Drew Brees and his injury replacements that Sanders would finish on a higher note than his 2020 season.   But nope.   That turkey was cooked in October and cold cuts by Thanksgiving.

Yes $6 million is so much for prior pro bowl guards for Christ sake