RD 1, Pick 23: CB Kaiir Elam, Florida

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 5/4/2022 at 10:40 AM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yep.   

 

And if they actually become a more multiple defense........capable of going back and forth from heavy zone to a lot of press-man usage based on opponent.........then Elam is a premium position pick.

 

If that defensive plan fails and they end up having to stick with what worked well with Levi...........even if Elam plays fine in zone concepts, and it's hard to say if he will because he didn't do it much at Florida...............then it becomes a question of whether they invested a $20M kinda' personnel chip into a guy at a position they could have filled with a journeyman type.

 

The Bills reportedly played man 34% of the defensive snaps last season - 8th in the league. 

Hard to see them adding Elam and playing less.

[The Dean]

56 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Assume you mean "traded up"?

 

Yes, up down around and around. Of course I meant up. Then then again, isn't a lower draft number "down"?

 

🤣

 

Thanks for clearing that up.

58 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Assume you mean "traded up"?

 

 

Just curious, according to whom?  If they play zone, but with on CB man, how is that coded? 

[BarleyNY]

9 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The Bills reportedly played man 34% of the defensive snaps last season - 8th in the league. 

Hard to see them adding Elam and playing less.

They also have used plays where Tre played man coverage and others were in zone.  I think the hope is that they’ll now have a CB2 that can do some of that too.  That’ll give them more flexibility in flipping that scheme as needed.

 

Elam seems very likable.  He’s toolsy.  I watched some game film and he’s certainly got talent.  He’s sticky and aggressive in coverage.  He does not allow much separation by WRs, he tracks the ball well and fights them for it in the air.  He’s got really good speed too.  He should be able to run with most NFL WRs.  A lack of physicality at the LOS and during routes won’t be the issue.  If anything, he’ll have to back off on some of that in the NFL.

 

That brings me to the two main concerns I have with his game. The first is that he’s way too grabby and physical during routes for the NFL.  He was especially grabby at the top of routes.  The concern there is that he either doesn’t have the ability to flip his hips or the reactions/mirroring ability to stay with WRs when they make their moves and he’s grabbing them at that point to slow them down.  The other possibilities are that it was due to his knee injury or that he was just pushing the envelope to get away with what the refs were allowing.  He had 7 penalties for it last year.  He simply can’t do that in the NFL. The other glaring issue was his reluctance to hit and tackle ball carriers.  For as physical as he is with WRs during their routes, he wanted nothing to do with making a tackle - and when he had to, he tried (often unsuccessfully) to arm tackle.  He even had several chances to hit ball carriers already being engaged by tacklers to prevent them from gaining extra yardage and simply pulled up and made no contact.  It’s difficult to think that was because of his knee.  That absolutely has to change.  NFL OCs will test him early and often in that regard.  
 

So there’s a lot to like about Elam as well as some concerns.  He is going to  have excellent coaching so no worries there.  His abilities give him the potential to be a very good NFL CB.  The concerns about his game are the kind that get worked out quickly or derail a career quickly so it shouldn’t take long to know what we’ve got. 

Edited May 6, 2022 by BarleyNY

[Coach Tuesday]

13 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

They also have used plays where Tre played man coverage and others were in zone.  I think the hope is that they’ll now have a CB2 that can do some of that too.  That’ll give them more flexibility in flipping that scheme as needed.

 

Elam seems very likable.  He’s toolsy.  I watched some game film and he’s certainly got talent.  He’s sticky and aggressive in coverage.  He does not allow much separation by WRs, he tracks the ball well and fights them for it in the air.  He’s got really good speed too.  He should be able to run with most NFL WRs.  A lack of physicality at the LOS and during routes won’t be the issue.  If anything, he’ll have to back off on some of that in the NFL.

 

That brings me to the two main concerns I have with his game. The first is that he’s way too grabby and physical during routes for the NFL.  He was especially grabby at the top of routes.  The concern there is that he either doesn’t have the ability to flip his hips or the reactions/mirroring ability to stay with WRs when they make their moves and he’s grabbing them at that point to slow them down.  The other possibilities are that it was due to his knee injury or that he was just pushing the envelope to get away with what the refs were allowing.  He had 7 penalties for it last year.  He simply can’t do that in the NFL. The other glaring issue was his reluctance to hit and tackle ball carriers.  For as physical as he is with WRs during their routes, he wanted nothing to do with making a tackle - and when he had to, he tried (often unsuccessfully) to arm tackle.  He even had several chances to hit ball carriers already being engaged by tacklers to prevent them from gaining extra yardage and simply pulled up and made no contact.  It’s difficult to think that was because of his knee.  That absolutely has to change.  NFL OCs will test him early and often in that regard.  
 

So there’s a lot to like about Elam as well as some concerns.  He is going to  have excellent coaching so no worries there.  His abilities give him the potential to be a very good NFL CB.  The concerns about his game are the kind that get worked out quickly or derail a career quickly so it shouldn’t take long to know why we’ve got. 

Honestly sounds like a slightly more physical version of Tre.  Same strengths and weaknesses.  Tre still tends to arm-tackle ball carriers.

[MrEpsYtown]

9 hours ago, The Dean said:

 

Just curious, according to whom?  If they play zone, but with on CB man, how is that coded? 

 

We play a good amount of 3 sky to trips, which will leave the backside single corner on man against that single receiver. Some 4 man too, which is cover 4 with man principles. Most teams don't just sit in cover three or cover 2. They may be playing a different coverage on different side of the field, especially in corner, nickel and safety blitz situations. 

[BADOLBILZ]

11 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The Bills reportedly played man 34% of the defensive snaps last season - 8th in the league. 

Hard to see them adding Elam and playing less.

 

 

I wouldn't doubt that figure but it's kind of a throw away stat.

 

As Beane said........they wanted to be able to play more press-man.

 

The key to their defense is their ability to disguise coverages........34% some-kinda'-man is still low enough to merely be part of the designed confusion.........especially when you are often playing with enormous leads as the highest point differential team in the NFL.

 

And with moderate exposure they've had great success in the past with press man even...........I remember when Kevin Johnson was here he ranked #1 or close to it in press man success rate.    That certainly wasn't because he was Jalen Ramsey-esque.

 

The disguise improves the success of ALL coverages.........if the pass rush is on time and forces quick throws.

 

But if the rush isn't there,  then it becomes athlete vs athlete in coverage.

 

They drafted Elam, IMO because they want to be able to rely less on disguise and instead be able to matchup better when they run into that combination of elite QB/elite receiving talent but also an offense that doesn't let them get to the passer in a timely fashion.

 

All of the investment in pass rush and now the "traits" add at CB are basically the Bills trying to create a defense, on paper at least, that doesn't have any inherent vulnerability.

 

Whether that degree of effort/investment is worthwhile at the expense of offensive investment is questionable.   

 

 

[PrimeTime101]

51 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I wouldn't doubt that figure but it's kind of a throw away stat.

 

As Beane said........they wanted to be able to play more press-man.

 

The key to their defense is their ability to disguise coverages........34% some-kinda'-man is still low enough to merely be part of the designed confusion.........especially when you are often playing with enormous leads as the highest point differential team in the NFL.

 

And with moderate exposure they've had great success in the past with press man even...........I remember when Kevin Johnson was here he ranked #1 or close to it in press man success rate.    That certainly wasn't because he was Jalen Ramsey-esque.

 

The disguise improves the success of ALL coverages.........if the pass rush is on time and forces quick throws.

 

But if the rush isn't there,  then it becomes athlete vs athlete in coverage.

 

They drafted Elam, IMO because they want to be able to rely less on disguise and instead be able to matchup better when they run into that combination of elite QB/elite receiving talent but also an offense that doesn't let them get to the passer in a timely fashion.

 

All of the investment in pass rush and now the "traits" add at CB are basically the Bills trying to create a defense, on paper at least, that doesn't have any inherent vulnerability.

 

Whether that degree of effort/investment is worthwhile at the expense of offensive investment is questionable.   

100% and take note to what Seatle did to their defense during their Superbowl run. 2 great CB's allowed them to be more dynamic in blitz packages. 

[TPS]

56 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Whether that degree of effort/investment is worthwhile at the expense of offensive investment is questionable.   

 

 

Do you mean O-line, skill players, or just in general?

To this untrained eye, it looks as if they've diversified what the O is capable of offering each week by strengthening the passing attack in the backfield and TE positions, adding Cook and Howard.  WR has a slight difference in the strengths that Crowder and Beasley offer, but, other than that, it's kind of a wash (possibly better with Davis getting more snaps?).  No real upgrades/changes at OL, so wondering if that's what you mean?

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

17 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I wouldn't doubt that figure but it's kind of a throw away stat.

 

As Beane said........they wanted to be able to play more press-man.

 

The key to their defense is their ability to disguise coverages........34% some-kinda'-man is still low enough to merely be part of the designed confusion.........especially when you are often playing with enormous leads as the highest point differential team in the NFL.

 

And with moderate exposure they've had great success in the past with press man even...........I remember when Kevin Johnson was here he ranked #1 or close to it in press man success rate.    That certainly wasn't because he was Jalen Ramsey-esque.

 

The disguise improves the success of ALL coverages.........if the pass rush is on time and forces quick throws.

 

But if the rush isn't there,  then it becomes athlete vs athlete in coverage.

 

They drafted Elam, IMO because they want to be able to rely less on disguise and instead be able to matchup better when they run into that combination of elite QB/elite receiving talent but also an offense that doesn't let them get to the passer in a timely fashion.

 

All of the investment in pass rush and now the "traits" add at CB are basically the Bills trying to create a defense, on paper at least, that doesn't have any inherent vulnerability.

 

Whether that degree of effort/investment is worthwhile at the expense of offensive investment is questionable.  

 

FWIW, the person who provided the stat here (I believe they said it was from the Joe Marino Locked on Bills podcast) said it was 8th highest in the league.  I would assume it was higher prior to Tre White's injury and lower afterwards.  The highest man-% team in the league was 40-something IIRC.  I'll see if I can find the post where the guy talked about it, later on.

Anyway the point is, the Bills are thought of as a heavy zone-coverage team but actually do play man on 1 out of 3 snaps and are top-10 in use of man coverage.  I thought that was interesting.

 

Obviously agree with your valid points about "designed confusion" and how the disguise improves the success of all coverage, provided the pass rush gets home.

 

As stated elsewhere, I have no quarrel with the Bills use of a mild trade-up and a late 1st round pick for a CB.   CB do fall into the "high 2nd contract" premium player class as witnessed by the fact Tre currently has the highest cap hit on the Bills and will be 4th next season, after QB, WR, and Edge; the caveat "if he develops as they hope" applies to all first round picks, including QB, WR, Edge and DT.

But I also agree about the possible negative impact from overall lack of offensive investment year after year.  I don't think it matters if we don't spend a 1st on offense this year or last year.  But it matters if the overall investment, in FA & high draft picks, is lower on the offensive side of the ball, and so far it is LOPsided.  I'm especially worried about the line.

 

 

[Doc]

I wouldn’t say that just because the Bills didn’t take a WR at 23, that they didn’t invest in offense. Maybe some are short-term investments, but they’re investments just the same. 

[BillsVet]

13 hours ago, Mark Vader said:

I prefer.....Carnac, The Magnificent. 

 

Gotta live up to the magnificent part first. 

[The Dean]

3 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

We play a good amount of 3 sky to trips, which will leave the backside single corner on man against that single receiver. Some 4 man too, which is cover 4 with man principles. Most teams don't just sit in cover three or cover 2. They may be playing a different coverage on different side of the field, especially in corner, nickel and safety blitz situations. 

 

I understand the combination coverages. I'm asking if they play different coverages on different sides, does that count as "man coverage" in the quoted calculation?  If it doesn't, the number looks to be quite high to me. If it does, it really isn't full man coverage, but rather a hybrid that should count partially in both categories. No?

[PrimeTime101]

1 hour ago, The Dean said:

 

I understand the combination coverages. I'm asking if they play different coverages on different sides, does that count as "man coverage" in the quoted calculation?  If it doesn't, the number looks to be quite high to me. If it does, it really isn't full man coverage, but rather a hybrid that should count partially in both categories. No?

This is a great point.

[MrEpsYtown]

1 hour ago, The Dean said:

 

I understand the combination coverages. I'm asking if they play different coverages on different sides, does that count as "man coverage" in the quoted calculation?  If it doesn't, the number looks to be quite high to me. If it does, it really isn't full man coverage, but rather a hybrid that should count partially in both categories. No?

Gotcha! That us a great question. I really wonder if there are times when we are truly straight man to man. I feel like it is mostly combo coverage. 

[Fan in Chicago]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

But I also agree about the possible negative impact from overall lack of offensive investment year after year.  I don't think it matters if we don't spend a 1st on offense this year or last year.  But it matters if the overall investment, in FA & high draft picks, is lower on the offensive side of the ball, and so far it is LOPsided.  I'm especially worried about the line.

 

 

This is my single biggest concern as we have not made many significant upgrades to the OL. Adding Saffold, walking everyone back and changing coaches still is not sufficient given how much Allen had to cover up the deficiencies last season. Beane said after the season that we need to provide more protection for Allen but I hope he wasn't talking about the RB and Receivers as "protection". I was hopeful that one of the first 3 picks would go to the OL but that didn't happen. 

There aren't many FA left so I am still hoping there is a trade coming or we will be lucky with some June cuts

[Warcodered]

 

[Mark Vader]

1 hour ago, BillsVet said:

 

Gotta live up to the magnificent part first. 

Already done

[NewEra]

6 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

They also have used plays where Tre played man coverage and others were in zone.  I think the hope is that they’ll now have a CB2 that can do some of that too.  That’ll give them more flexibility in flipping that scheme as needed.

 

Elam seems very likable.  He’s toolsy.  I watched some game film and he’s certainly got talent.  He’s sticky and aggressive in coverage.  He does not allow much separation by WRs, he tracks the ball well and fights them for it in the air.  He’s got really good speed too.  He should be able to run with most NFL WRs.  A lack of physicality at the LOS and during routes won’t be the issue.  If anything, he’ll have to back off on some of that in the NFL.

 

That brings me to the two main concerns I have with his game. The first is that he’s way too grabby and physical during routes for the NFL.  He was especially grabby at the top of routes.  The concern there is that he either doesn’t have the ability to flip his hips or the reactions/mirroring ability to stay with WRs when they make their moves and he’s grabbing them at that point to slow them down.  The other possibilities are that it was due to his knee injury or that he was just pushing the envelope to get away with what the refs were allowing.  He had 7 penalties for it last year.  He simply can’t do that in the NFL. The other glaring issue was his reluctance to hit and tackle ball carriers.  For as physical as he is with WRs during their routes, he wanted nothing to do with making a tackle - and when he had to, he tried (often unsuccessfully) to arm tackle.  He even had several chances to hit ball carriers already being engaged by tacklers to prevent them from gaining extra yardage and simply pulled up and made no contact.  It’s difficult to think that was because of his knee.  That absolutely has to change.  NFL OCs will test him early and often in that regard.  
 

So there’s a lot to like about Elam as well as some concerns.  He is going to  have excellent coaching so no worries there.  His abilities give him the potential to be a very good NFL CB.  The concerns about his game are the kind that get worked out quickly or derail a career quickly so it shouldn’t take long to know what we’ve got. 

And had more than a handful of “no arm tackles” where he just dove into their legs with his shoulders, hoping they’d go down. 

While that definitely scares, I think the coaches will change that.  He’ll be called out and embarrassed. He seems like an alpha and alphas don’t want to be “soft”.  Cj henderson taught him how to be soft and it got him to the league.  Now it’s up to our coaches and Kaiir to make sure he doesn’t play like Henderson in the league.  
 

what scares me most after watching a bunch of tape is his grabby nature.  He did it a LOT.  Called for 7 penalties but probably got away with 30 others.  He reminds me of Carlton Davis with his hands.  He can be a nuisance…..as long as the ref allow him to be

[John from Riverside]

3 hours ago, NewEra said:

And had more than a handful of “no arm tackles” where he just dove into their legs with his shoulders, hoping they’d go down. 

While that definitely scares, I think the coaches will change that.  He’ll be called out and embarrassed. He seems like an alpha and alphas don’t want to be “soft”.  Cj henderson taught him how to be soft and it got him to the league.  Now it’s up to our coaches and Kaiir to make sure he doesn’t play like Henderson in the league.  
 

what scares me most after watching a bunch of tape is his grabby nature.  He did it a LOT.  Called for 7 penalties but probably got away with 30 others.  He reminds me of Carlton Davis with his hands.  He can be a nuisance…..as long as the ref allow him to be

I just think the tackling can be coached......he is willing to stick his face in there

[Shaw66]

7 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I wouldn't doubt that figure but it's kind of a throw away stat.

 

As Beane said........they wanted to be able to play more press-man.

 

The key to their defense is their ability to disguise coverages........34% some-kinda'-man is still low enough to merely be part of the designed confusion.........especially when you are often playing with enormous leads as the highest point differential team in the NFL.

 

And with moderate exposure they've had great success in the past with press man even...........I remember when Kevin Johnson was here he ranked #1 or close to it in press man success rate.    That certainly wasn't because he was Jalen Ramsey-esque.

 

The disguise improves the success of ALL coverages.........if the pass rush is on time and forces quick throws.

 

But if the rush isn't there,  then it becomes athlete vs athlete in coverage.

 

They drafted Elam, IMO because they want to be able to rely less on disguise and instead be able to matchup better when they run into that combination of elite QB/elite receiving talent but also an offense that doesn't let them get to the passer in a timely fashion.

 

All of the investment in pass rush and now the "traits" add at CB are basically the Bills trying to create a defense, on paper at least, that doesn't have any inherent vulnerability.

 

Whether that degree of effort/investment is worthwhile at the expense of offensive investment is questionable.   

 

 

Although I find this post interesting and a good discussion of the pass defense, the bolded portion is completely wrong. McDermott lives by disguise; getting Elam will increase the amount of disguise they can use, because offenses won't be able to force them into zone coverages, as happened last year when the Bills simply couldn't match up in man coverage.   

 

McDermott's defense is predicated on disguise and confusion, and that won't change.