Your Bills draft assumptions

[FilthyBeast]

This is probably the first draft during this regime where I really don't have any assumptions or predictions.

 

It's easy to say this team must draft a DB with their 1st round pick but something tells me Beane is going to stick to his draft board and take a player/position that isn't on anybody's radar (i.e. DT or LB) early.

 

What I really don't want to see happen is drafting a RB in the 1st round or trading up in the draft and giving away next years 1st round pick + more, but again all bets are off right now.

[ngbills]

This is the least interested I have been in the draft in years. And it feels good. We finally have a team that is good enough that our draft pick does not need to be an impact player. Yes, we have some holes to fill and it would be a nice surprise to draft a guy that can step in right away. But even nicer to not be relying on that. So my draft assumptions or hopes are any of the following 1) Draft a CB that can play right away 2) One of the better WR fall to us 3) Breece Hall is not picked in round 1 and we get him in round 2, even better round 3 4) Future Center 5) LB Depth 6) More DB depth 7) TE Depth.

 

Something along these lines:

1- CB: Booth, Elam, McDuffie

2- RB Hall, WR Dotson

3- WR Metchie, RB Spiller, RB B Robinson

4-6 (4 Picks) CB Mathis, S Cline, S Cross, CB Emerson, LB Muma, LB Smith, LB Asomoah, C/G Parham, C/G Burford, TE Wydermyer, TE Turner, TE Likely, TE Mitchell

7- WR Rambo, WR Melton, RB Marks

Edited April 27, 2022 by ngbills

[WotAGuy]

1 hour ago, blacklabel said:

 

I’d advise reading Joe B’s most recent draft write up on The Athletic.

Agree; it’s an excellent article. Has me convinced they will find a way to get Hamilton. 

[LeGOATski]

Beane has a history of trading up. I think it's very likely.

[BigAl2526]

14 hours ago, Yantha said:

1.  I think the odds of this happening are pretty solid.

2.  Love Breece Hall but I think this would be unlikely.

3.  Starting to think that a trade DOWN might be difficult UNLESS a team wants a quarterback at 25.  Every GM has to know that the draft board is relatively flat with respect to "equal" talent in the 20-40 pick range.

4.  I think that if Linderbaum (one of the 15 or so true first round-graded prospects) slips to 25, he could be the pick (Yes, I know 95% here disagree).  Otherwise, I don't think an OG would be picked here. 

5.  I'd love to be a fly on the wall in the war room to find out if Beane thinks a particular player is worth trading into the 15-20 range for.  This will be interesting.

6.  Wyatt could slip, yes.  We will see.

 

 

I think the odds of any scenario I listed are less than 50/50, even picking cornerback.  That is still the most likely outcome of the draft.  The thing that might make drafting Breece Hall more likely would be a run on CBs, leaving options Beane doesn't like or those that represent too much of a reach.  The odds would be boosted further by a poor market for trying to trade down.  As you have noted, this looks like a draft where a lot more teams are wanting to trade down than want to trade up.

[Yantha]

Seems to me that there are quite a few teams in the market for a QB this year.  That could really shake up the top 25 picks.  I have FOUR going before we pick.  

 

Fingers crossed!  That "virtually" gets us to pick 21 if you exclude QB picks......

[BigAl2526]

1 minute ago, Yantha said:

Seems to me that there are quite a few teams in the market for a QB this year.  That could really shake up the top 25 picks.  I have FOUR going before we pick.  

 

Fingers crossed!  That "virtually" gets us to pick 21 if you exclude QB picks......

The problem is, every QB in the draft has at least one significant flaw.  There are at least 4 teams that need QBs badly, probably more, but teams may not see a particular advantage to drafting a QB in round one versus waiting a bit.  It ultimately depends on how many GMs are going to be seduced by need versus being faithful to pest player available.

[Yantha]

Just now, BigAl2526 said:

The problem is, every QB in the draft has at least one significant flaw.  There are at least 4 teams that need QBs badly, probably more, but teams may not see a particular advantage to drafting a QB in round one versus waiting a bit.  It ultimately depends on how many GMs are going to be seduced by need versus being faithful to pest player available.

I agree, but the way it usually goes..... is that QB needy teams go into a bit of a panic as soon as the first QB flies off the board.  Personally, I think that one of the only ways to trade down for the Bills in this draft is if THREE quarterbacks are gone before we pick.  A "panicky" team may feel the need to recklessly trade up for a second-round-graded QB....  before the next QB-needy team nabs him.....

 

May be the leverage we need to get multiple day two (or three) picks.  Personally, I feel that if all the best corners are gone, I hope we trade down for Hall, get extra picks to go after the next bracket of DB's....

[RocCityRoller]

6 hours ago, mjt328 said:

If I had to make a prediction, I think the Bills go O-Line (Guard) or Safety in Round 1.

 

I've done many mock drafts, which are surprisingly accurate when it comes to predicting the positions/players that will be available.  The value picks that keep coming up (which I could see being realistic for us) are guards Kenyon Green or Zion Johnson, or safety Daxton Hill.  All of those guys are considered solid 1st Round prospects, and all would fit future needs.

Don't forget that Beane said "protecting Josh Allen" was his top priority this offseason.  He only attacked the O-Line with one-year deals, which means that position will be a need again next year.  

On the safety side, I think we are (unfortunately) watching Jordan Poyer's last season in Buffalo.  We can't pay everyone, and I think he's the odd man out.

 

 

I have to agree with you. This is a deep draft but not filled with expected game changers. Some will end up doing that of course, but it is harder to identify in this draft. I expect to see the unexpected. It will really depend on who falls to Buffalo. In some sims and mocks it has lined up really well for Buffalo, others have been a total mess!

 

There is a lot of potential 10 yr starter value at 25 on IOL and S, and those are both places Buffalo needs to address now or next year. I am all for building out the OL in this draft. This seems like a deep draft for OL and DB. I am not a fan of any of the RBs as 1st rounders, but I would not be surprised to see IOL, RB or S drafted in the first round. I agree K Green, Z Johnson and D Hill are all in play at 25.

 

There are some solid CBs and S who could fall to rounds 3-5, and this coaching staff has turned late picks/ UDFA into solid NFL starters.

[BigAl2526]

35 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

Beane has a history of trading up. I think it's very likely.

No GM ought to be tied into a single strategy for approaching the first round.  Lots of teams want to trade down this year, so there would be opportunities to trade up for sure.  But the reason so many teams want to trade is the number of question marks surrounding to top players.  That leads to value issues.   Beane is certainly willing to trade up for the right player, but he won't do it just to do it.  Last year is evidence of that.  The real value in this draft is probably rounds 2 and three, and those are the picks you'd have to part with if you want to trade up.

[BigDingus]

For the first time ever, I really don't have any assumptions or expectations going into the draft, & I kind of like that. 

 

It's weird, but it feels like going into a movie blind after avoiding all trailers 😊

 

Not sure why, but tried not to get too deep into everything this year, so I'm not attached to any handful of prospects or positions.

 

Sure, every year I want us to snag more O-linemen, but outside of that, I'm just excited to see who's on the table when our number is called!

[LeGOATski]

3 minutes ago, BigAl2526 said:

No GM ought to be tied into a single strategy for approaching the first round.  Lots of teams want to trade down this year, so there would be opportunities to trade up for sure.  But the reason so many teams want to trade is the number of question marks surrounding to top players.  That leads to value issues.   Beane is certainly willing to trade up for the right player, but he won't do it just to do it.  Last year is evidence of that.  The real value in this draft is probably rounds 2 and three, and those are the picks you'd have to part with if you want to trade up.

The real value for Beane is getting the best players possible. Young guys who can realistically make a difference on this Super Bowl-hopeful team.

[Einstein's Dog]

15 hours ago, BigAl2526 said:

Putting all that together, and stopping short of a prediction.  Here are the possible outcomes for the Bills from most likely to least likely:

1.  Buffalo stays at #25 and drafts a cornerback.  take your pick (other than Sauce Garner and Derek Stingley who aren't reasonable)

2.  Buffalo stays at #25 and drafts Breece Hall.

3.  Trade down either to the bottom of the first or the top 3rd of the second round.  Buffalo could target a RB or CB after the trade down too.

4.  Buffalo stays at #25 and drafts an interior offensive lineman.

5.  Buffalo trades up.  I couldn't guess the actual trade, but I think #15 -#20 might be a reasonable target range.

6.  Devonte Wyatt drops and Buffalo decides his off field issue is not a deal breaker.

 

I know we've torn apart the upcoming draft about every possible way, but I haven't seen it approached the exact way.  So what are your assumptions and what doo you think are the possible outcomes of round one for Buffalo. 

 

What, no WR coverage?  I think it is a distinct possibility.

 

My hope is that the FO is using the draft for the future benefit of the club.  That means BPA at a positions that make financial sense.  Lots to choose from:  CB, WR, IOL, even Safety could go in the first.  Then the others plus LB and RB and way late P.

 

Breece Hall @25 is not drafting with the financial future in mind and would seriously disappoint me.

[intimidatortj]

Draft.  I always focus on all 7-8 picks, not just the 1st round pick.

 

The 1st round pick, when picking at 25, is not likely to be an elite, all-pro player.

 

So I am cool if we draft Daxton Hill and he bounces around the secondary as a rookie, and then becomes a full time safety when Jordan Poyer leaves at the end of 2022. 

[BigAl2526]

8 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

What, no WR coverage?  I think it is a distinct possibility.

 

My hope is that the FO is using the draft for the future benefit of the club.  That means BPA at a positions that make financial sense.  Lots to choose from:  CB, WR, IOL, even Safety could go in the first.  Then the others plus LB and RB and way late P.

 

Breece Hall @25 is not drafting with the financial future in mind and would seriously disappoint me.

Personally, I think the only receiver with the kind of skill set and athleticism to compel Beane to make him the pick is Jameson Williams, and I don't see him dropping. Dotson is the most likely to drop.  He has the speed the Bills would covet for a Josh Allen target.  He's also a good route runner with great hands.  His size means he's not likely to be a full time outside receiver.  I wouldn't mind Dotson, but with the limit imposed by his size, I question whether he gives Beane enough reasons to pick him.  I think as an option he would be well down on the list.  

[Einstein's Dog]

4 minutes ago, BigAl2526 said:

Personally, I think the only receiver with the kind of skill set and athleticism to compel Beane to make him the pick is Jameson Williams, and I don't see him dropping. Dotson is the most likely to drop.  He has the speed the Bills would covet for a Josh Allen target.  He's also a good route runner with great hands.  His size means he's not likely to be a full time outside receiver.  I wouldn't mind Dotson, but with the limit imposed by his size, I question whether he gives Beane enough reasons to pick him.  I think as an option he would be well down on the list.  

I think/hope J Williams, G Wilson, T Burks, and C Watson would all be in play.

[unbillievable]

I looked at draft history and found that...

 

1) Elite Cornerbacks are the hardest to find outside the 1st.

2) OT is the second hardest, Interior linemen are easier to get later

3) All the top WR were drafted late. Adams, Hopkins, Diggs, Cupp, Hill, ...

4) All the top RBs were also later picks.

5) Pass Rushers are as enigmatic as QBs. Doesn't matter where you draft them, it's hit or miss. No team seems to know who will be great or not.

 

 

[Putin]

16 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

He drafts 1 CB within the first two rounds (maybe doubles up over the span of the entire draft), 1 WR with an emphasis on speed within the first 3 rounds (also maybe doubles up by the end), a RB that provides pass catching ability and speed somewhere between rounds 2-4, and a God of Punting for good measure 😛

Josh Allen going in to his 5th season we definitely don’t need to use a draft pick or carry a punter on our 53 , 

[BillsFanForever19]

4 minutes ago, Putin said:

Josh Allen going in to his 5th season we definitely don’t need to use a draft pick or carry a punter on our 53 , 

 

Touché 😆

 

Don't get me wrong, I'm not advocating any higher than a 5th for Araiza.

[Putin]

1 minute ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Touché 😆

 

Don't get me wrong, I'm not advocating any higher than a 5th for Araiza.

If we could get him in the 5th round that would be awesome