Your Bills draft assumptions

[Thurman#1]

He'll continue using the rules he's used and committed to. That's the most likely thing we'll see.

 

He'll trade up, but not trade away picks in the first four or five rounds.

 

He'll go BPA at positions of need (which will be a bit wider than just the three obvious ones, including things like safety, TE, etc., particularly a bit later)

 

Unless someone like Jordan Davis falls a long way, he'll go WR, CB or IOL with the first pick. And he'll cover all of those within ... oh, maybe the first five picks, I'm saying.

 

 

 

...

 

Oh, and I'm guessing punter in the last couple of rounds

 

[TPS]

6 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

He'll continue using the rules he's used and committed to. That's the most likely thing we'll see.

 

He'll trade up, but not trade away picks in the first four or five rounds.

 

He'll go BPA at positions of need (which will be a bit wider than just the three obvious ones, including things like safety, TE, etc., particularly a bit later)

 

Unless someone like Jordan Davis falls a long way, he'll go WR, CB or IOL with the first pick. And he'll cover all of those within ... oh, maybe the first five picks, I'm saying.

 

 

 

...

 

Oh, and I'm guessing punter in the last couple of rounds

 

This is a good take, especially your 3rd sentence. Given their cap constraints going forward, they will need to draft a number of positions where guys can take a year (or two) to develop. 

[BuffaninSarasota]

I assume the first round of the draft is tomorrow night

[CapeBreton]

Bills draft a punter in the sixth round, just like we did Tyler Bass. I’m looking at Jordan Stout who impressed at the Senior Bowl

Bills don’t like a WR until the 3rd or 4th round, just like we waited on Gabriel Davis

Bills draft a CB round one, I don’t believe the Breece Hall hype at 25. I'm starting to think it's Kyler Gordon, Booth is going to fall because of medicals

[HOUSE]

I assume Buffalo will draft somebody that escaped this board for months

 

 

[First Round Bust]

if we stay at 25 - the surprise pick could be S - Cine - big nickel this year and replaces Poyer next

 

Like RB Hall, Cine has late first round grade, pick makes sense, so take your pick O or D

[17islongenough]

I'm assuming the 1st round will have 32 players selected

[Solomon Grundy]

6 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

He drafts 1 CB within the first two rounds (maybe doubles up over the span of the entire draft), 1 WR with an emphasis on speed within the first 3 rounds (also maybe doubles up by the end), a RB that provides pass catching ability and speed somewhere between rounds 2-4, and a God of Punting for good measure 😛

I totally agree with this. The punter from Penn State somewhere late in the draft. Tariq Woolen and Joshua Williams in rds 2/4. TE in rd 3

[Greg S]

14 minutes ago, BuffaninSarasota said:

I assume the first round of the draft is tomorrow night

yes

[Billsbuff]

1) The Bills will draft 2 DBs in the first 4 picks.

2) The Bills will make a trade to acquire an extra 4th-6th round pick for 2023 Draft

3) The Bills will take a WR in Round 3 or 4.

4)  My biggest stretch of an assumption is that the Bills either trade back into the late 1st or early 2nd and take their corner they've targeted.  I think its either Gordon or an Alabama corner (NFL ready and scheme friendly). 

[2003Contenders]

While Beane keeps things close to the vest, I believe that he is a straight shooter. That is, I do not believe that he puts up "smoke screens". For example, last year the team was supposedly interested in both N. Harris and Entienne. Both were drafted well before the Bills' pick at 30. So it could very well be that Beane/McD were interested in those guys but did not want to move up to get them and may have been more interested in Rousseau even if either was still there. When Beane says that he believes in going the BPA route, I believe him.

 

I actually think "where there is smoke, there is fire". This year they have been linked to Hall. Given their reported interests in the same position last season and their lack of significant movement (Duke is not a significant pickup), it could very well be true. Now, that isn't to say that they wouldn't draft a different player at a different position at 25 over Hall, just that I have a feeling that Beane and McD would not lose any sleep over a selection of Hall at 25. Also, in the last couple of drafts the Bills have been linked to physical in-the-box safeties. I suspect that is also true, and McD would love to have such a player in his defense, especially with Poyer's future with the team in question. So, if Hamilton (for example) starts to slide, I could see the Bills making a move (if not cost prohibitive) to get him.

 

This team has the strongest roster since the glory years -- and would be best served to maximize early picks rather than to stock up on late round picks who would have little-to-no chance of making the roster. With the market for trading down reportedly weak this year, I just don't see the Bills being in the position to trade out of the 1st to acquire multiple 2nd/3rd round picks. The converse is that a weak market for trading down, likely means a strong market for trading up -- so I would not be surprised to see a slight move up (inside, say, the top 20) or a package of late-round picks to move up from the 3rd to the 2nd or 4th to the 3rd.

 

I guess my order of likelihood would  be:

 

1. Stay put at 25 and draft BPA (likely CB/S, WR, OL, or RB)

 

2. If a player they thought would go in the top 10 starts to slide down to, say, 15 trade up to get him

 

3. Like I said above, I think it will be hard to find a partner with which to trade down. But... A team picking early in the 2nd round and wants to move back into the 1st to secure a 5th year option, may be tempted to trade up with the Bills. The would then probably Bills pick up the other team's early 3rd rounder in  the trade. That gives the Bills two 2nd rounders and two 3rd rounders to address the needs referenced above. They can still use late-round picks to move up higher in each of those rounds if they need to.

[The Jokeman]

If he's available I just feel Kyler Gordon is who we take at #25. As he fits a need and checks boxes of what Levi Wallace brought but a better athlete

 Toss in a very high RAS which we seemingly focused on last draft. 

[CapeBreton]

23 minutes ago, 2003Contenders said:

While Beane keeps things close to the vest, I believe that he is a straight shooter. That is, I do not believe that he puts up "smoke screens". For example, last year the team was supposedly interested in both N. Harris and Entienne. Both were drafted well before the Bills' pick at 30. So it could very well be that Beane/McD were interested in those guys but did not want to move up to get them and may have been more interested in Rousseau even if either was still there. When Beane says that he believes in going the BPA route, I believe him.

 

 

I believe Beane said he had a first round grade on Rousseau last year and usually only has like 20ish first round grades. I highly doubt he had Najee or Etienne ranked higher than Rousseau, they could have been options if Rousseau was gone though. 

[BuffaloRebound]

I honestly have no feel for where Bills are heading in the draft.  I guess that means McBeane have done a good job not tipping their hand.  Only assumption safe to make is they won’t be drafting a QB in the first 2 rounds.  

[buffaloboyinATL]

My assumption is that Beane will have his eyes on a particular player in round 1, and if they drop enough, he will go up and get them.  If the player DOES happen to drop all the way to us, the same may apply to a move back into the bottom of the 1st or top of the 2nd.  

[oldmanfan]

He may move way up to get Gardner of Stingley.  Other than that I think he stays pat

[CapeBreton]

I also assume we will draft some guys I’ve never heard of, similar to Hamlin, Stevenson, Wildgoose, and Anderson last year. 

[T master]

I feel the Bills will either take a stud LB or a RB with their first pick & stay at 25 unless of course the guys they want are both gone at that pick then they could trade back into for extra picks if they can get into the top of the second & Beane feels he can still get his guy just ut side of the 1st round .

 

But that 5th year option is always a nice thing to have in your back pocket I'm getting so stoked can't wait to see who we get ...

 

 

[BuffaloRebound]

1 hour ago, T master said:

I feel the Bills will either take a stud LB or a RB with their first pick & stay at 25 unless of course the guys they want are both gone at that pick then they could trade back into for extra picks if they can get into the top of the second & Beane feels he can still get his guy just ut side of the 1st round .

 

But that 5th year option is always a nice thing to have in your back pocket I'm getting so stoked can't wait to see who we get ...

 

 

LB (the ones who don’t rush the QB) and RB are the 2 positions where the 5th year option is probably least valuable to the team when you consider how de-valued those positions have become.  The LB’s gotta be Fred Warner good not Tremaine good to justify the 5th year option price tag.  And even more so for a RB.  Dude’s gotta be pre-injury McCaffrey special for the economics to work to take a RB in the 1st round.  

[blacklabel]

They won’t draft a corner real high. They’re gonna bank on Tre being just fine and they remain pretty high on Jackson, just like they did with Wallace for the last four years. They probably do draft one but not until the third or fourth round. 
 

They like their WR group and unless one of the top WR names falls to them somehow, I don’t think they’re gonna go WR in the first. They just extended Diggs, Davis is on the up and up, Crowder is a solid slot replacement over Beasley and then McKenzie rounds out the top four. They’re gonna give plenty of chances to Marquez Stevenson and Isaiah Hodgins to win a spot. Maybe they take one late but yeah, unless one of the top receiver prospects falls to them I don’t think that’s happening. 
 

I’d advise reading Joe B’s most recent draft write up on The Athletic. He makes the case that they might very well move around in an attempt to land Norte Dame safety Kyle Hamilton. This kid checks all the boxes they like, he’s versatile, he has elite size, has a knack for big plays, he’s played in a lot of college games and he’s a leader. McBeane value the crap out of those traits. Plus, they’ve been looking for a movable piece on their defense for a while. They were rumored to be high on Kyle Dugger a couple years back, another versatile defender. Jordan Poyer is in the final year of his deal and between him and Hyde, it was Hyde who got the extension and so far, Beane has given no indication they plan on extending Poyer. I’m sure they’d like to but as he’s said, they can’t pay everyone. Plus, Poyer (and Hyde for that matter) will be 32 or 33 heading into next season. McDermott emphasizes safety play in his defense so Hamilton makes a ton of sense if they can pull off the right trades to get him. If they can’t, Joe B named Georgia’s Lewis Cine as a possibility at 25.

 

If none of those scenarios pan out, I can totally see them going with Breece Hall at 25. He gives them a dimension they currently don’t have in the run game. Plus, this is Singletary’s final year on his rookie deal. Unless Zack Moss suddenly becomes a stud, their run game beyond Singletary isn’t great. And it’s rumored the friction between McDermott and Daboll last season was about Sean being irritated with Daboll calling too many designed QB runs. Obviously Josh is gonna scramble, that’s part of his game. But it seems clear the head coach would prefer far fewer designed runs. Adding a player like Hall allows them to lean on Josh a lot less in the run game. Hall is a three down back who can catch it and he looks like a really good fit for the zone blocking scheme they’re likely to run this season. 
 

They’re also gonna try to walk outta there with one of the top tight ends. I do believe they’ll extend Knox and let Howard walk after this season so long as they add one of the better ones from this draft. I think it’s the McBride kid they like a lot, I think they’ve met with him the most of any of the TE prospects. 
 

I also don’t think this is the year to stand pat and let the board fall to them. Go wheel and deal and move around and walk out with like four or five guys out of the top 100-150 players as opposed to seven picks from the whole field of 255 or however many it is this year. Their roster is pretty stacked so guys picked in the 6th and 7th rounds don’t have the best shot to make the team.