Your Bills draft assumptions

[BigAl2526]

I'm not one to make a lot of big, bold predictions for the draft, and while I follow the various mock drafts, I almost never create a mock myself.  However, I do have some thoughts about how the Bills will handle this draft.  They are:  1. The Bills are not likely to move up far in this draft.  It simply costs too much unless they are able to package #25 with player on their roster, and those kinds of trades are very rare.  2.  Beane looks for player traits over need in the draft, but doesn't ignore need altogether.  The Bills have only one of what I would call an acute need - cornerback.  3.  There is likely to be a relative lack of high impact elite players left in the first round when the Bills pick.  Tyler Linderbaum may be around, but his position limits the level of his impact, and his size makes him a bit of a question mark for any team not running a pure zone blocking system.   Breece Hall certainly qualifies as a potential high impact player, but there is that axiom about not picking a running back in round one.  I don't rule out Hall as the Bills' pick, but it's not the only possibility.  On defense, besides cornerbacks, there are a handful of players that might be considered a reasonable value at that point.  The only elite talent who might fall could be Devonte Wyatt. Whether Buffalo would consider Wyatt would depend on whatever due diligence they do with respect his alleged off field activities. Some other names who may be available are Dean, Karlaftis, Hill and Ojabo.  There are reasons to pass on any of them.  On offense, outside of Breece Hall, maybe Dotson will be available, Zion Johnson and/or Kenyon Green, Trey McBride (if the Bills think he's a first round value) and various QBs.   I don't think anybody believes Buffalo is going to pick a QB.  Among CBs, the first two on most pundit's boards will be gone.  The next group varies on its members depending on who is doing the evaluating.  Trent McDuffie has the production and experience, but faces questions about size and arm length.  Some like Booth.  Some like Gordon. some like Elam.  

 

Putting all that together, and stopping short of a prediction.  Here are the possible outcomes for the Bills from most likely to least likely:

1.  Buffalo stays at #25 and drafts a cornerback.  take your pick (other than Sauce Garner and Derek Stingley who aren't reasonable)

2.  Buffalo stays at #25 and drafts Breece Hall.

3.  Trade down either to the bottom of the first or the top 3rd of the second round.  Buffalo could target a RB or CB after the trade down too.

4.  Buffalo stays at #25 and drafts an interior offensive lineman.

5.  Buffalo trades up.  I couldn't guess the actual trade, but I think #15 -#20 might be a reasonable target range.

6.  Devonte Wyatt drops and Buffalo decides his off field issue is not a deal breaker.

 

I know we've torn apart the upcoming draft about every possible way, but I haven't seen it approached the exact way.  So what are your assumptions and what doo you think are the possible outcomes of round one for Buffalo. 

 

[Warriorspikes51]

Brandon Beane rightfully disregards 50% of fanbase and drafts Hall at 25 

[ExWNYer]

3 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Brandon Beane rightfully disregards 50% of fanbase and drafts Hall at 25 

 

 

[Yantha]

18 minutes ago, BigAl2526 said:

I'm not one to make a lot of big, bold predictions for the draft, and while I follow the various mock drafts, I almost never create a mock myself.  However, I do have some thoughts about how the Bills will handle this draft.  They are:  1. The Bills are not likely to move up far in this draft.  It simply costs too much unless they are able to package #25 with player on their roster, and those kinds of trades are very rare.  2.  Beane looks for player traits over need in the draft, but doesn't ignore need altogether.  The Bills have only one of what I would call an acute need - cornerback.  3.  There is likely to be a relative lack of high impact elite players left in the first round when the Bills pick.  Tyler Linderbaum may be around, but his position limits the level of his impact, and his size makes him a bit of a question mark for any team not running a pure zone blocking system.   Breece Hall certainly qualifies as a potential high impact player, but there is that axiom about not picking a running back in round one.  I don't rule out Hall as the Bills' pick, but it's not the only possibility.  On defense, besides cornerbacks, there are a handful of players that might be considered a reasonable value at that point.  The only elite talent who might fall could be Devonte Wyatt. Whether Buffalo would consider Wyatt would depend on whatever due diligence they do with respect his alleged off field activities. Some other names who may be available are Dean, Karlaftis, Hill and Ojabo.  There are reasons to pass on any of them.  On offense, outside of Breece Hall, maybe Dotson will be available, Zion Johnson and/or Kenyon Green, Trey McBride (if the Bills think he's a first round value) and various QBs.   I don't think anybody believes Buffalo is going to pick a QB.  Among CBs, the first two on most pundit's boards will be gone.  The next group varies on its members depending on who is doing the evaluating.  Trent McDuffie has the production and experience, but faces questions about size and arm length.  Some like Booth.  Some like Gordon. some like Elam.  

 

Putting all that together, and stopping short of a prediction.  Here are the possible outcomes for the Bills from most likely to least likely:

1.  Buffalo stays at #25 and drafts a cornerback.  take your pick (other than Sauce Garner and Derek Stingley who aren't reasonable)

2.  Buffalo stays at #25 and drafts Breece Hall.

3.  Trade down either to the bottom of the first or the top 3rd of the second round.  Buffalo could target a RB or CB after the trade down too.

4.  Buffalo stays at #25 and drafts an interior offensive lineman.

5.  Buffalo trades up.  I couldn't guess the actual trade, but I think #15 -#20 might be a reasonable target range.

6.  Devonte Wyatt drops and Buffalo decides his off field issue is not a deal breaker.

 

I know we've torn apart the upcoming draft about every possible way, but I haven't seen it approached the exact way.  So what are your assumptions and what doo you think are the possible outcomes of round one for Buffalo. 

 

1.  I think the odds of this happening are pretty solid.

2.  Love Breece Hall but I think this would be unlikely.

3.  Starting to think that a trade DOWN might be difficult UNLESS a team wants a quarterback at 25.  Every GM has to know that the draft board is relatively flat with respect to "equal" talent in the 20-40 pick range.

4.  I think that if Linderbaum (one of the 15 or so true first round-graded prospects) slips to 25, he could be the pick (Yes, I know 95% here disagree).  Otherwise, I don't think an OG would be picked here. 

5.  I'd love to be a fly on the wall in the war room to find out if Beane thinks a particular player is worth trading into the 15-20 range for.  This will be interesting.

6.  Wyatt could slip, yes.  We will see.

 

 

[BillsShredder83]

2 hours ago, Yantha said:

1.  I think the odds of this happening are pretty solid.

2.  Love Breece Hall but I think this would be unlikely.

3.  Starting to think that a trade DOWN might be difficult UNLESS a team wants a quarterback at 25.  Every GM has to know that the draft board is relatively flat with respect to "equal" talent in the 20-40 pick range.

4.  I think that if Linderbaum (one of the 15 or so true first round-graded prospects) slips to 25, he could be the pick (Yes, I know 95% here disagree).  Otherwise, I don't think an OG would be picked here. 

5.  I'd love to be a fly on the wall in the war room to find out if Beane thinks a particular player is worth trading into the 15-20 range for.  This will be interesting.

6.  Wyatt could slip, yes.  We will see.

 

 

Any thoughts on Edmunds though? [LOL-sry had to hahaha]

[BillsFanForever19]

He drafts 1 CB within the first two rounds (maybe doubles up over the span of the entire draft), 1 WR with an emphasis on speed within the first 3 rounds (also maybe doubles up by the end), a RB that provides pass catching ability and speed somewhere between rounds 2-4, and a God of Punting for good measure 😛

[GolfandBills]

I assume there will be people on here with their draft network big boards printed out and when the pick comes in that doesn’t agree with someone else’s rankings they will make a post about how bad the pick was 

[K D]

TBD community has literally never been wrong about a draft pick. Beane should just do what we say

[billybrew1]

3 hours ago, BigAl2526 said:

I'm not one to make a lot of big, bold predictions for the draft, and while I follow the various mock drafts, I almost never create a mock myself.  However, I do have some thoughts about how the Bills will handle this draft.  They are:  1. The Bills are not likely to move up far in this draft.  It simply costs too much unless they are able to package #25 with player on their roster, and those kinds of trades are very rare.  2.  Beane looks for player traits over need in the draft, but doesn't ignore need altogether.  The Bills have only one of what I would call an acute need - cornerback.  3.  There is likely to be a relative lack of high impact elite players left in the first round when the Bills pick.  Tyler Linderbaum may be around, but his position limits the level of his impact, and his size makes him a bit of a question mark for any team not running a pure zone blocking system.   Breece Hall certainly qualifies as a potential high impact player, but there is that axiom about not picking a running back in round one.  I don't rule out Hall as the Bills' pick, but it's not the only possibility.  On defense, besides cornerbacks, there are a handful of players that might be considered a reasonable value at that point.  The only elite talent who might fall could be Devonte Wyatt. Whether Buffalo would consider Wyatt would depend on whatever due diligence they do with respect his alleged off field activities. Some other names who may be available are Dean, Karlaftis, Hill and Ojabo.  There are reasons to pass on any of them.  On offense, outside of Breece Hall, maybe Dotson will be available, Zion Johnson and/or Kenyon Green, Trey McBride (if the Bills think he's a first round value) and various QBs.   I don't think anybody believes Buffalo is going to pick a QB.  Among CBs, the first two on most pundit's boards will be gone.  The next group varies on its members depending on who is doing the evaluating.  Trent McDuffie has the production and experience, but faces questions about size and arm length.  Some like Booth.  Some like Gordon. some like Elam.  

 

Putting all that together, and stopping short of a prediction.  Here are the possible outcomes for the Bills from most likely to least likely:

1.  Buffalo stays at #25 and drafts a cornerback.  take your pick (other than Sauce Garner and Derek Stingley who aren't reasonable)

2.  Buffalo stays at #25 and drafts Breece Hall.

3.  Trade down either to the bottom of the first or the top 3rd of the second round.  Buffalo could target a RB or CB after the trade down too.

4.  Buffalo stays at #25 and drafts an interior offensive lineman.

5.  Buffalo trades up.  I couldn't guess the actual trade, but I think #15 -#20 might be a reasonable target range.

6.  Devonte Wyatt drops and Buffalo decides his off field issue is not a deal breaker.

 

I know we've torn apart the upcoming draft about every possible way, but I haven't seen it approached the exact way.  So what are your assumptions and what doo you think are the possible outcomes of round one for Buffalo. 

 

I like your thoughts about the Bills going DL still, I think the same….

[msw2112]

I have absolutely no idea what the Bills are going to do this year.  I also have no idea what any other teams are going to do.  This is the most unpredictable draft that I can remember.  While CB is most likely for the Bills, any of CB, Safety, RB, WR or LB could be the pick, depending on a) how the board falls, and b) the Bills' future plans with current players such as Poyer, Edmunds, and Singletary.

Edited April 27, 2022 by msw2112

[SoMAn]

Assuming I can wait another 40 hours to get the answers without taxing my mind this much. 

[John from Riverside]

Paragraphs are a good thing

[Yantha]

4 hours ago, BillsShredder83 said:

Any thoughts on Edmunds though? [LOL-sry had to hahaha]

Now that you asked!  haha...

[Coach Tuesday]

4 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

TBD community has literally never been wrong about a draft pick. Beane should just do what we say

Or the opposite of what @Tipster19predicts!

[unbillievable]

Beane drafts a punter, announcing to the NFL that the Bills are set at every position.

 

 

[simpleman]

I realize it would take a lot of good luck, but if Beane is the draft god many here believe he is, he will take the risks and trade down out of the 1st and package his later picks to swing a trade for two early Round 2 picks. He can solve two weaknesses with one selection by drafting Daxton Hill early in the 2nd. He could start at CB while Tre gets back to speed. He could later on in the year get time with Hyde to see how he pairs up with Hyde as a possible replacement of Poyer. If he doesn't work out with him due to his weaknesses  at safety, he can stay at CB in the future. With our 2nd early pick we draft Breece Hall ,who can block, catch and run. We upgrade the defense and offense significantly in round two. A dual threat RB taking the pressure off the need for an early WR replacement pick. He can line up in both pass and running plays without signaling to the opposing defense what our designed plays are, either pass or run.

Ideally a trade with the Lions, or even Seattle for early 2nd round picks, or a wizard combination of  a trade down along with trading up from Beane with our later picks (and or players) to get two early 2nd round picks. We would basically be set for the draft after two early 2nd round picks. Going for our other real need with a remaining round 6 pick for a punter.

 

Edited April 27, 2022 by simpleman

[Greg S]

4 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

TBD community has literally never been wrong about a draft pick. Beane should just do what we say

 

I wanted them to take Rosen in 2018 draft. So it would be wise if Beane didn't listen to an "expert" like me. If I had to guess I still think they go corner in Rd 1.

[H2o]

I think we come out of this draft with our CB2, a MLB that is to be groomed as Edmunds' potential replacement, and a S that will be groomed as Poyer's replacement. 

[mjt328]

If I had to make a prediction, I think the Bills go O-Line (Guard) or Safety in Round 1.

 

Almost everyone wants a cornerback on the first day.  Me too. 

But unfortunately, the best value is most likely going to be somewhere else when we pick.

• The two top guys in this draft (Derek Stingley and Sauce Gardner) will be long gone by Pick #25.  I think both guys are likely Top 10, and trading up more than a couple picks is going to be way too expensive.  No way Beane flips a future 1st Rounder just to move up for a CB. 
• I wouldn't be surprised if Trent McDuffie also goes Top 15, which would also put him out of reach.  Andrew Booth Jr. depends on the medical red flags.  If other teams fail him for the hernia issues, it's very likely we will too.
• After those top four guys, the value drops and we are looking mostly at Day 2 guys (Kaiir Elam, Roger McCreary and Kyler Gordon).  Maybe we reach for position, but that doesn't seem like Beane either.

 

I keep hearing about Breece Hall being connected to the Bills.  That should be the main reason to reject that idea, because this organization does not let information like that slip.  It's a smokescreen, just like Travis Etienne last year.  There aren't any running backs worth a 1st Round Pick this year.  Same thing with tight ends.

 

The top wide receivers (Garrett Wilson, Jameson Williams, Drake London, Chris Olave) are probably gone at #25.  I can't see Treylon Burks being the style of WR we are looking for.  We don't really need another Edge Rusher, Defensive Tackle or Offensive Tackle. 

 

The top linebackers (Devin Lloyd, Nakobi Dean) are both outside guys.  So even if we are looking for a replacement for Tremaine Edmunds, neither of those guys really fit the mold.

 

I've done many mock drafts, which are surprisingly accurate when it comes to predicting the positions/players that will be available.  The value picks that keep coming up (which I could see being realistic for us) are guards Kenyon Green or Zion Johnson, or safety Daxton Hill.  All of those guys are considered solid 1st Round prospects, and all would fit future needs.

Don't forget that Beane said "protecting Josh Allen" was his top priority this offseason.  He only attacked the O-Line with one-year deals, which means that position will be a need again next year.  

On the safety side, I think we are (unfortunately) watching Jordan Poyer's last season in Buffalo.  We can't pay everyone, and I think he's the odd man out.

 

Edited April 27, 2022 by mjt328

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

'Sweet Caroline' will not be played as background music during any Bills picks or announcements at the draft.

*
At least it better not be. 🤨